No graph, but you can use this site: https://sites.google.com/site/gamedatalibrary/game-search
Had a quick look, and CTB did worse at launch than Central Fiction.
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Just realised Switch hit 1 million YTD this week.
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Media Create Sales: Week 22, 2018 (May 28 - Jun 03)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
No graph, but you can use this site: https://sites.google.com/site/gamedatalibrary/game-search
Had a quick look, and CTB did worse at launch than Central Fiction.
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Just realised Switch hit 1 million YTD this week.
I think it could be very ugly. 3DS games have damn near negative legs now. Look at this week's chart. Only USUM on there and that's how it's like almost every week now
Good legs for darks souls, continued legs for splatoon 2.
Was expecting a bigger opening for blazeblue:ctb.
Liar princess with a low opening but since it's a lower budget game it could still do well with the lower numbers if it has legs.
Both ps4 and switch hardware numbers continue to rise.
Another average week overall.
Was expecting a bigger opening for blazeblue:ctb.
Liar princess with a low opening but since it's a lower budget game it could still do well with the lower numbers if it has legs.
Both ps4 and switch hardware numbers continue to rise.
Another average week overall.
Well that's kinda the point yes, traditional games are dying while those others are doing well, which is why we were talking about traditional games specifically. It's not an attack on non-traditional games.
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Oh yeah, damn, didn't even look at that! Trucking along nicely, and the real work starts in the coming months.
A DLC-clad, asset reuse, team based 2D fighter that did not release in arcades in Japan was never going to perform well in Japan right now. Not surprising at all for Cross Tag.
Guess I'm surprised P3D and P5D dropped off completely, but that seemed like it might happen based on last week.
Guess I'm surprised P3D and P5D dropped off completely, but that seemed like it might happen based on last week.
I'd say Minecraft is very likely. Kirby and Yo-Kai Watch are very possible.
And NSMB U port would easily get there as well IMO
Looking at PS4's summer lineup, I doubt it anytime soon. Maybe Fall will be better though.
Ah yeah, if that happens this year then Switch might pass 10 1 million sellers before the end of the year, or at least before it is 2 years old.
Switch software presence on these charts is only going to keep growing from here.
Oh you don't know Atlus.
And on top of coming late, it's yet another EO inspired game. Like we haven't had enough. Easily the Musou of RPGs. (but go out now and buy Strange Journey!)
I think Q2 will bomb super hard, and honestly Atlus don't seem to care.
Looking at old data, Switch 1 during Week 25, 2017 (Jun 19 - Jun 25). So 3 weeks earlier this year.
OP
OP
Of what we know, I think the only sure-fire bets are Pokemon and Smash.
Minecraft depends on opening and legs, it will hit it eventually most likely, it just has to sell at a consistent 15k pace and have a really good holiday after having a higher than normal opening for the series.
Kirby would have to sustain legs from this point and also have a very good holiday in August and at the end of the year. It could get there eventually. From Media Create it has to sell ~16.1k each week the rest of the year to hit a million physical and roughly in the ~15k range mixing Media Create physical and the digital estimates.
Yokai depends on the remaining popularity of the franchise and what it mixes up for the series. I can see it ending up anywhere from 400k to a crack over a million due to a range of factors.
I think the remaining outside shot would be for some form of Monster Hunter to show up or a surprise Nintendo game like a NSMBU port earlier on in the year than what is currently speculated (I heard December?) or a surprise Animal Crossing if they want to blow up Japan.
They really need to stop with the 3DS games. Ports of Radiant Historia, Strange Journey, and a new EO and Q2 are nice, but they had/have the potential to perform much better if they move to a relevant platform. Even though they're cheap to produce, they are missing out on chances to grow their brand on PS4/Switch.
Same for Catherine on the Vita. I can't see that doing well either, though at least it will have the PS4 version.
BlazBlue: Cross Tag Bomba. Most likely japanese audience showed the finger because RWBY is a western franchise.
I feel very happy for Zelda. Aonuma and his team deserves this. Pretty great, constant numbers for Switch. Detroit performs kinda surprising.
I feel very happy for Zelda. Aonuma and his team deserves this. Pretty great, constant numbers for Switch. Detroit performs kinda surprising.
On the NA eShop the game hasn't even broken into the Top 30 so far.
Too many new games/versions knocked ARMS out of the top 20. Hopefully back next week. I love seeing it in the top 20.
RWBY has been moderately successful in Japan. They didn't just randomly put it in this game for no reason.
Sorry, I switched back to lurking for a while to do some brewing and quonset hut design, but I was always waiting for the Zelda opportunity for another post:
I took some time to complete the DS line, though it's a little hard because I haven't resolved the issue of when to count half-versions of games versus both as a single game (like Pokèmon). But anyway, I'm amused to see that Switch is now the fourth Nintendo console in the list to has keep to the trend of having 3 specific million sellers in week 58 or 59. It's not really a super significant thing, but it is a little more interesting considering that they all got their first million-selling game in dramatically different weeks (looks like Wii week 11, Switch week 41, 3DS week 44, NDS week 56).
It's been for at least a decade traditional fighting games are not selling well. Just look at the numbers of historic franchises like Tekken, Soul Calibur and Street Fighter in Japan.
I think EOX will do quite well. I'd not be surprised to see it close to mainline entries.
THANKS, that's the image I was referring to. If Switch manages to have its 9 million sellers, then it would equal 3DS' number after almost 3 years, which would be very strong considering most of the games will be Nintendo first party titles. Of course, to keep the pace, million sellers need to continue coming at a steady pace (3DS seems to have had 6 million sellers in its fourth year, for example).Sorry, I switched back to lurking for a while to do some brewing and quonset hut design, but I was always waiting for the Zelda opportunity for another post:
I took some time to complete the DS line, though it's a little hard because I haven't resolved the issue of when to count half-versions of games versus both as a single game (like Pokèmon). But anyway, I'm amused to see that Switch is now the fourth Nintendo console in the list to has keep to the trend of having 3 specific million sellers in week 58 or 59. It's not really a super significant thing, but it is a little more interesting considering that they all got their first million-selling game in dramatically different weeks (looks like Wii week 11, Switch week 41, 3DS week 44, NDS week 56).
That will be fun to watch unfold if it pans out that way. Not that I doubt you one bit, holidays will be primetime for Switch, and hopefully little in the way of stock issues this year for the holidays. :)
Outside of the ones you mentioned DQB2 and Mario Tennis Aces also have a shot.
I think the other interesting thing is that Switch is tracking well ahead of 3DS in terms of multi-million selling titles. By the end of 2012 these were the top selling 3DS games:
1) Animal Crossing: New Leaf (2012-11-08) - 1.969.955
2) Mario Kart 7(2011) - 1.908.966
3) New Super Mario Bros. 2(2012-07-28) - 1.743.791
4) Super Mario 3D Land(2011) - 1.769.566
5) Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate(2011) - 1.587.556
3DS Hardware Sales by the end of 2012 - 9.779.883
Switch will have a game already well beyond 3M by the end of 2018.
Multiple 2M selling games by the end of 2018 - Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Smash, Pokemon, Super Mario Odyssey
Despite it being extremely likely that the Switch would be over >2.5M below 3DS's hardware total.
Nintendo are now prepared for shipping 20M, instead of having to scale up from a 10M prediction, so that shouldn't be a problem, at least not to sell the required 4.1M for 2018 to outsell Wii launch aligned.
I don't see any realistic way for either of those titles to get close to a million. Open to listening to arguments otherwise, but that seems incredibly optimistic.
This is the day that Din, Farore, and Nayru have made. Let us rejoice and be glad in it.
Yeah, Switch games are selling astronomically, no doubt about it.
BTW, are you expecting Switch to sell only 3.9M in 2018 total? 3DS was at 9.8M by the end of 2012, so Switch was have to be below 7.3M to be 2.5M below 3DS hardware. I don't think that will happen myself.
Switch will outsell the Wii's lifetime sales before the end of 2019
I do not know, but I don't think any major company could pass up the chance to put a feather in their hat like that :P
DQB2 could be a hit with younger audience that enjoy Minecraft, it has multiplayer unlike the first game and could appeal to older demographic who already own a Switch.
Mario Tennis Aces is probably going to get constant updates until the end of the year. Its also going to get two full holidays and during one of them will be the major new title from Nintendo on the system. I could totally see Mario Tennis ending up with >500K sales by the end of August.
My bad I miscalculated i'm thinking around >4.5M for the year - so >3.5M for the remaining 30 weeks. So in the region slightly below 2M difference between the systems. It's possible that Nintendo blows my estimation out of the park, but we should have a clearer idea after Obon.
DQB's potential was limited because it was released across three platforms that weren't particularly popular.
I don't really think PS4 version would negatively impact the Switch version, quite the opposite.
Has there been a Nintendo 1st Party game with local multiplayer on the go that has under-performed in Japan?
Arms is closing in on 500K and it didn't have the brand recognition that Mario provides; it was also somewhat harmed by the release of Splatoon 2; Arms also had a far slower update schedule which I don't expect MTA to mirror.
I personally think MTA will get a ton more updates than Arms did - because it will perform much better WW compared to Arms(above >3M WW by the end of 2018). Top that off with a better single player campaign and more time for the game to breathe(Smash is likely a September release),
They have a shot at 1M neither is guaranteed to do that well.
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Re: Builders 2. The first one did 700K across 3 platforms, and Builders 2 has a PS4 version which will surely sell pretty well.
Re: Mario Tennis. Other than the original that was released 18 years ago, no entry has even surpassed 400K.
I know Switch software is selling well, but I think this is way too optimistic.
No problem. By the way, you can go to http://era.burner.camp/#cqr at any time for a programmatic version of this (which includes many more consoles). The image I post is done by hand, but that website is a backup to help me make sure I'm not doing something wildly off. You can have extra fun with it by changing the quantity (eg, comparing half-million sellers). Note that I haven't fed it this week's data, as I'm thinking of waiting until the top 50 comes out first.
Yes, Pokémon and Smash are guaranteed million sellers on Switch this year. Minecraft is still very popular but it will take quite a long time to approach 1 million in physical units. Youkai Watch is really hard to tell right now, really hard to gauge its current popularity, 400k-1,2m is a big range that I consider possible, with the little information we have.
Animal Crossing for Q1 2019 would be great to extent the likely good holiday momentum this year.
In general it looks quite good when it comes to number of million selling titles, for comparison with the only other still active system going forward, PS4 will have 3 million selling titles after 5 years in market (by March2019).
Wow, that's a great website for sure. Thanks, I will play around with it a little and see if I can get some interesting information from it!
DQB2 all version combined might be. Mario Tennis might leg its way to 1M, but just like Zelda, it won't happen in the year it is released.
Yeah Builders 2 could get close adding in PS4. But Switch version alone? No way.
And I honestly don't get the optimism for Mario Tennis. I think it will do really well, but not every relatively high profile Nintendo game sells a million copies.
If it did, then it definitely didn't sink as low as I feared. In fact, I'd say it held up pretty well, considering. No 20k weeks!
