Media Create Sales: Week 23, 2018 (Jun 04 - Jun 10)

DarkDetective

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,829
The Netherlands
Frozen is one of the highest grossing films of all time in Japan. Anyone who thinks the only Frozen fans are some specific "obsessed" demographic seems delusional. People are going to have a lot of fun with the Frozen world simply because they recognize the characters, the events, and the tunes.

BUT, maybe now is the time to say, Kingdom Hearts has never been a huge super franchise in Japan and I see no reason why that will suddenly change. The series in general is about on par with Metal Gear Solid in terms of popularity, which means KH3 will easily do over 500k, but one million is more of a ceiling than a goal.
It's not about "Frozen fans". It's about "Frozen fans who are invested enough to buy Kingdom Hearts III and make sure to have the hardware to play it on".

And that's quite a difference, because if those who are most invested in Frozen are the least likely to buy KH3, which in itself has a barrier of entry, and either have or buy a PS4, then we're talking about a good ol' audience mismatch.

As mentioned in one of the posts above, series like Resident Evil and Metal Gear Solid (not to forget Final Fantasy) were huge a decade ago, but have declined a lot on PS4. And those games don't even have to deal with audience mismatches.

While it may be a bit higher than 400k in Japan, maybe 450k-500k, I've become pretty confident in my 400k/4M prediction.
 

duckroll

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,869
Singapore
It's not about "Frozen fans". It's about "Frozen fans who are invested enough to buy Kingdom Hearts III and make sure to have the hardware to play it on".

And that's quite a difference, because if those who are most invested in Frozen are the least likely to buy KH3, which in itself has a barrier of entry, and either have or buy a PS4, then we're talking about a good ol' audience mismatch.

As mentioned in one of the posts above, series like Resident Evil and Metal Gear Solid (not to forget Final Fantasy) were huge a decade ago, but have declined a lot on PS4. And those games don't even have to deal with audience mismatches.

While it may be a bit higher than 400k in Japan, maybe 450k-500k, I've become pretty confident in my 400k/4M prediction.
It's really not about Frozen fans who are so hardcore they want to buy anything with Frozen in it. It's about Frozen being a very popular and recognizable Disney property and it making KH3 more appealing as a Disney action RPG along with all the other worlds.

MGS was never huge a decade ago in Japan. Not sure where you got that idea from. From the first game to the most recent game it has consistently been a 700-800k title in Japan. Always weird to see people talk about FF/RE/MGS/KH as if they are all franchises which were huge in Japan at some point, but the reality is that FF and RE were huge, MGS and KH were just merely popular. MGS and KH would be in good company with Tales and Persona, not FF and RE. Lol.
 

DarkDetective

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,829
The Netherlands
MGS was never huge a decade ago in Japan. Not sure where you got that idea from. From the first game to the most recent game it has consistently been a 700-800k title in Japan. Always weird to see people talk about FF/RE/MGS/KH as if they are all franchises which were huge in Japan at some point, but the reality is that FF and RE were huge, MGS and KH were just merely popular. MGS and KH would be in good company with Tales and Persona, not FF and RE. Lol.
I think KH3 will fail to attract many new fans, so most KH3 players will probably have played previous installments on PS2, PS3, or PS4. If that's indeed the case, I think KH3 will suffer from its shared release date with Resident Evil 2...

The Resident Evil 2 HD remake has had a lot of anticipation as well, and both games want to catch fish from the same pond. One will suffer from the other's success. Of course that doesn't mean one of them will completely fail. It means that the sales potential at launch would've been reasonably higher without the other. People will have to choose.
 

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,396
It's not about "Frozen fans". It's about "Frozen fans who are invested enough to buy Kingdom Hearts III and make sure to have the hardware to play it on".

And that's quite a difference, because if those who are most invested in Frozen are the least likely to buy KH3, which in itself has a barrier of entry, and either have or buy a PS4, then we're talking about a good ol' audience mismatch.

As mentioned in one of the posts above, series like Resident Evil and Metal Gear Solid (not to forget Final Fantasy) were huge a decade ago, but have declined a lot on PS4. And those games don't even have to deal with audience mismatches.

While it may be a bit higher than 400k in Japan, maybe 450k-500k, I've become pretty confident in my 400k/4M prediction.
MGS V didn't really sell that much worse than MGS IV though. MGS games have had pretty stable sales across all generations.
 

KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,450
Tokyo
Publishers have metacritic based bonuses in their developer contracts. They wouldn't be doing that if it wasn't important. They wouldn't do that without data showing them that its important.
Important to the Anglo-sphere? Maybe. Important to Japan? 'メータークリティーク? 何それ?、聞いたことねぇ'.
 

Vareon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,550
FuRyu seems to be a mediocre developer who would've been fine during PS/PS2 day but harshly judged in this era. Hopefully they can stay as long as they can.
 
Oct 25, 2017
7,781
FuRyu seems to be a mediocre developer who would've been fine during PS/PS2 day but harshly judged in this era. Hopefully they can stay as long as they can.
Thankfully for them they are more than just a game developer/publisher, so even if those games bomb they are probably safe. But I mostly do agree with the overall quality of the games lol.
 

CeroMiedo

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,067
Tbh when I read the leaks yesterday I thought Crystar was gonna be an edgy space rpg with mechs and stuff, didn’t really expect this............
 

Lite_Agent

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,316
Somewhere. I think.
FuRyu is a publisher that's been doing almost nothing but shitty licenced games, but has been trying to branch into "quality" games for the past few years. Sadly for them, their reputation as kusoge devs really is sticking to them, and it doesn't help their original games are not exactly masterpieces (generally due to inappropriate budget).

They're really multiplying original projects lately, and I can only see that strategy ending badly for them. Sadly for them, the current market isn't really the right one for the kind of games they can afford to make, so I don't see them ever breaking away from that reputation.
 

DarkDetective

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,829
The Netherlands
FuRyu is a publisher that's been doing almost nothing but shitty licenced games, but has been trying to branch into "quality" games for the past few years. Sadly for them, their reputation as kusoge devs really is sticking to them, and it doesn't help their original games are not exactly masterpieces (generally due to inappropriate budget).

They're really multiplying original projects lately, and I can only see that strategy ending badly for them. Sadly for them, the current market isn't really the right one for the kind of games they can afford to make, so I don't see them ever breaking away from that reputation.
At least Legend of Legacy and The Alliance Alive were successful (and the latter was a lot better than the former, too).
 

Adder

Member
Oct 28, 2017
384
Spain
Sushi Strikers show that there is no point on releasing Brand new 3DS games anymore, yet Nintendo is very stubborn to do so for some reason. Also the overpricing did not help. Terribly dangerous the lower difference between PS4 and Switch this week: hopefully they manage to widen this gap, so at least japanese developers start suporting Nintendo more, though I doubt it.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,026
Italy
It's really not about Frozen fans who are so hardcore they want to buy anything with Frozen in it. It's about Frozen being a very popular and recognizable Disney property and it making KH3 more appealing as a Disney action RPG along with all the other worlds.
"more appealing"

This should be of any interest if it translates into sales, that is if a Frozen fan decides to buy KH3 because of Frozen. Point is, Frozen audience is still quite homogenous, even if pretty big, and apparently very different from PS4 average owner.

FuRyu is a publisher that's been doing almost nothing but shitty licenced games, but has been trying to branch into "quality" games for the past few years. Sadly for them, their reputation as kusoge devs really is sticking to them, and it doesn't help their original games are not exactly masterpieces (generally due to inappropriate budget).
You can be respectable publisher without publishing masterpieces. Original 3DS jRPGs were pretty good. Even their Doraemon tie-in games are not that bad.
 

silpheed-mcd

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,074
GEO Ranking Preorders



~ 1.200 stores


About ranking:
- N is the title that was not ranked in within last ranking
- Games close to release date and games for which reservation reception has ended in Geo are not published in the ranking
- The ranking of the title is ranking by the total number including other models and bonus version
- Hardware order of multi titles is in order of hardware release date



01/03 [PS4] The Crew 2 - June 29
02/06 [NSW] Octopath Traveler - July 13
03/04 [PS4] Zanki Zero: Last Beginning - July 05
03/04 [PSV] Zanki Zero: Last Beginning - July 05
04/07 [NSW] Taiko Drum Master: Nintendo Switch Version! - July 19
05/09 [PS4] Spider-Man - September 07
06/15 [PS4] Winning Eleven 2019 - August 30
07/ N [PS4] Kingdom Hearts III - January 25
08/08 [NSW] Pro Yakyuu Famista Evolution - August 02
09/10 [NSW] SaGa : Scarlet Grace - Hiiro no Yabô - August 02
09/10 [PS4] SaGa : Scarlet Grace - Hiiro no Yabô - August 02
10/ N [PS4] Conan Outcasts - August 23
11/19 [NSW] Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker - July 13
11/19 [3DS] Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker - July 13
12/25 [PS4] Friday The 13th: The Game - July 13
13/26 [PS4] Mary Skelter 2 - June 28
14/12 [NSW] Ys VIII : Lacrimosa of Dana - June 28
15/ N [PS4] Battlefield 5 - October 19
16/ N [NSW] Warriors Orochi 3 - September 27
16/ N [PS4] Warriors Orochi 3 - September 27
17/ N [NSW] Super Mario Party - October 05
18/ N [NSW] FIFA 19 - September 28
18/ N [PS4] FIFA 19 - September 28
19/ N [PS4] The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel IV: The End of Saga - September 27
20/ N [PS4] Code Vein - September 27
21/ N [PS4] Anthem - February 22

22/16 [PS4] Naruto to Boruto: Shinobi Striker - August 30
23/17 [PS4] Utawarerumono Zan - September 27
24/18 [3DS] WarioWare Gold - August 02
25/22 [3DS] Etrian Odyssey X - August 02
26/20 [PS4] Yakuza 3 - August 09
27/36 [NSW] My Hero Academia: One’s Justice - August 23
27/36 [PS4] My Hero Academia: One’s Justice - August 23
28/28 [NSW] Rockman X Anniversary Collection 1 + 2 - July 26
28/28 [PS4] Rockman X Anniversary Collection 1 + 2 - July 26
29/21 [PS4] Bullet Girls Phantasia - August 09
29/21 [PSV] Bullet Girls Phantasia - August 09
30/24 [PS4] Fire Pro Wrestling World - August 09
31/23 [NSW] Layton’s Mystery Journey: Katrielle and The Millionaires’ Conspiracy DX - August 09
32/29 [NSW] Dragon Quest X All in One Package - July 26
32/29 [PS4] Dragon Quest X All in One Package - July 26
32/29 [WIU] Dragon Quest X All in One Package - July 26
33/31 [NSW] Okami HD - August 09
34/27 [NSW] Makai Senki Disgaea Refine (limited edition) - July 26
34/27 [PS4] Makai Senki Disgaea Refine (limited edition) - July 26
35/30 [NSW] LEGO: The Incredibles - August 02
35/30 [PS4] LEGO: The Incredibles - August 02
36/32 [NSW] STEINS; GATE ELITE - September 20
36/32 [PS4] STEINS; GATE ELITE - September 20
36/32 [PSV] STEINS; GATE ELITE - September 20
37/33 [PS4] Shadow of the Tomb Raider - September 14
38/ N [PS4] Soul Calibur VI - October 18
39/34 [NSW] Rockman 11: Gear of Destiny!! - October 04
39/34 [PS4] Rockman 11: Gear of Destiny!! - October 04
40/ N [NSW] Little Dragons Cafe - August 30
40/ N [PS4] Little Dragons Cafe - August 30



PS4: 30
NSW: 19
PSV: 3
3DS: 3
WIU: 1


- Games close to release date and games for which reservation reception has ended in Geo are not published in the ranking
01/02 [NSW] Mario Tennis Ace - June 22
02/03 [PS4] New Gundam Breaker - June 21
05/05 [NSW] Minecraft - June 21
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,026
Italy
Sushi Strikers show that there is no point on releasing Brand new 3DS games anymore, yet Nintendo is very stubborn to do so for some reason. Also the overpricing did not help.
Nintendo is still selling a lot of 3DSs to kids, as US numbers show.

Perhaps those new games won't sell much but they allow Nintendo to keep awareness high, especially because retailers must advertise them and this has positive spillover effects on the other games and hardware itself.
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,010
There will be big initial shipments for Minecraft and Mario Tennis this week, retailers are very confident for their legs.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,756
The Netherlands
Well I dunno, I am expecting Minecraft to sell over 100k first week, and if they expect very strong legs, too, then ordering 500k might not be too outlandish. So what would be a better guess for Minecraft first shipment, then?
 

Fularu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,080
Well I dunno, I am expecting Minecraft to sell over 100k first week, and if they expect very strong legs, too, then ordering 500k might not be too outlandish. So what would be a better guess for Minecraft first shipment, then?
I’m thinking 300k for minecraft and 400k (similar to kirby) for MTA
 

cw_sasuke

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,740
Sushi Strikers show that there is no point on releasing Brand new 3DS games anymore, yet Nintendo is very stubborn to do so for some reason. Also the overpricing did not help. Terribly dangerous the lower difference between PS4 and Switch this week: hopefully they manage to widen this gap, so at least japanese developers start suporting Nintendo more, though I doubt it.
Yeah...3DS as a plattform is the issue with Sushi Strikers.
Its setting the world on fire on Switch. /s

Its not like development on Sushi Strikers started 3 months ago....it was already in production, no point in cancelling it. Also 3DS first party releases arent really published with Japan in mind at this point.

I dont understand the last part of your post.
 
Oct 26, 2017
8,229
E3 is not where you’ll hear about the Switch version of DQ11

It will either be a direct or a special event before the TGS if the game is scheduled for december 2018 (to benefit from the double whammy of Pokemon and Smash)
.... I'm not sure "please stop asking about the release date. There are many... many things we have to do" is something that suggests TGS info on the port.