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Media Create Sales: Week 23, 2018 (Jun 04 - Jun 10)

Oct 30, 2017
1,073
0
When should we realistically expect a Switch price drop? How late into a consoles life cycle is typical for a first drop? 2 years? I find it unlikely Nintendo will drop before Christmas - maybe a bundle?
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,791
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I honestly don't think they even need one this year, Lets Go Pokemon and Smash are going to do very well combined with the holiday rush, i think you might even see shortages again.
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,594
0
When should we realistically expect a Switch price drop? How late into a consoles life cycle is typical for a first drop? 2 years? I find it unlikely Nintendo will drop before Christmas - maybe a bundle?
3DS and Wii U got one under a year post launch.
I think we’re due for one this holiday, but a bundle, at the very least.

I think they should consider doing something aggressive this holiday especially with their 20M fiscal year prediction
 
Nov 8, 2017
3,643
0
30
3DS and Wii U got one under a year post launch.
I think we’re due for one this holiday, but a bundle, at the very least.

I think they should consider doing something aggressive this holiday especially with their 20M fiscal year prediction
The 3DS wasn't doing that well with the exception of Japan where it was doing ok so that's why it had a price drop and the Wii U doesn't really need explaining.
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,594
0
The 3DS wasn't doing that well with the exception of Japan so that's why it had a price drop and the Wii U doesn't really need explaining.
Sure, but it’s still been around a year and a half.
By March of next year it’ll be 2 years, feels like they should do something with the bummer atmosphere left by e3.

Will do pretty well, but just something I’d like to see
 
Nov 8, 2017
3,643
0
30
Sure, but it’s still been around a year and a half.
By March of next year it’ll be 2 years, feels like they should do something with the bummer atmosphere left by e3.

Will do pretty well, but just something I’d like to see
It's still selling well WW even with fewer games coming in the first half of the year so I doubt it very much. Also speaking of Japan specifically we are now entering a period with many games releases so the Switch is going to fly off the shelves again. E3 wasn't that bad either lol and there are plenty of announcements yet to come for the second half of the year with at least 1 more direct.
 
Dec 28, 2017
3,767
0
Black Friday price drop maybe?
Maybe same price but bundled with a game instead. Mario Kart being best candidate imo

I have a feeling the Switch version of Dragon Quest XI will be silently cancelled in the end.
Lol it won't be silent at all. Fans aren't gonna let it die
Steep is something that was silently cancelled. Cause nobody gave a flying fuck about that game anyway
 

Vena

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,942
0
You'll get a Switch price drop after they phase out Gen1. Not before.

There'll be a major gain on fab-costs after they leave 20nm nodes, as well a major gain in not making nVidia-fuck-up-#1013193 cheaper to acquire.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,166
0
Tokyo
They won't. Other producers might be okay with being pushed around doing whatever SE tells them to do with their projects, but Horii wouldn't want such blemish on his career.
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,884
0
I expect NSMBU to be released late October and so Nintendo's Q4 will be pretty aggressive.

And their lineup from June 12th to July 13th is amazing. Definitely the best period of Switch releases ever with Paladins, Fortnite, Splatoon 2 DLC, Crash, Octopath, Captain Toad, Mario+Rabbids DLC.

But between July 13th and October 4th, the Switch lineup is... not good.

I don't know if dropping the price will actually help their 16% post-e3 stock drop though...
 
Oct 27, 2017
493
0
If Square Enix was going to cancel the Switch version of Dragon Quest XI, I doubt they would still be reassuring people that it's still being made. There would be a lot of disappointment and outrage over such a decision under any circumstances, but continuing to tell people it's coming like this would make things way worse, and they stand to gain nothing from misleading people in the short-term. Backing away from the Switch version would have to be a real last resort at this point.
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,884
0
If Square Enix was going to cancel the Switch version of Dragon Quest XI, I doubt they would still be reassuring people that it's still being made. There would be a lot of disappointment and outrage over such a decision under any circumstances, but continuing to tell people it's coming like this would make things way worse, and they stand to gain nothing from misleading people in the short-term. Backing away from the Switch version would have to be a real last resort at this point.
To be fair, Steep is clearly never coming to Switch but whenever a journalist asks Ubisoft about Steep, Ubisoft's response is "oh yeah, it's coming to Switch eventually."
 
Nov 2, 2017
5,456
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Sure, but it’s still been around a year and a half.
By March of next year it’ll be 2 years, feels like they should do something with the bummer atmosphere left by e3.

Will do pretty well, but just something I’d like to see
Would a 50 dollar drop now vs later translate into more profit?

If no, then you know why it won't happen.
It will probably happen next year, with a wave of big releases to really drive sales.
 
Oct 27, 2017
493
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To be fair, Steep is clearly never coming to Switch but whenever a journalist asks Ubisoft about Steep, Ubisoft's response is "oh yeah, it's coming to Switch eventually."
Does anybody actually care about the Switch version of Steep one way or the other? Maybe I'm wrong, but I doubt there would be any furor over Ubisoft announcing that they've decided to cancel it, so it really doesn't matter what they say. I'm not sure people even ask about it all that much anymore because (again) who cares?

People aren't going to forget about Dragon Quest XI easily (especially if it comes out on PS4 and PC and is met with a lot of praise, which seems fairly likely at this point). It's going to keep coming up.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,599
0
Does anybody actually care about the Switch version of Steep one way or the other? Maybe I'm wrong, but I doubt there would be any furor over Ubisoft announcing that they've decided to cancel it, so it really doesn't matter what they say. I'm not sure people even ask about it all that much anymore because (again) who cares?

People aren't going to forget about Dragon Quest XI easily (especially if it comes out on PS4 and PC and is met with a lot of praise, which seems fairly likely at this point). It's going to keep coming up.
This post s kinda funny because at the end of the day, Steep would probably sell more than DQXI on Switch.
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,884
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DQ11 is basically irrelevant to the Switch at this point in sales, I doubt it would do anything if it's released late next year and won't really be a huge loss for the system if it's cancelled.

So whatever.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,599
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If DQ11 Switch was only released in the West? Possibly yes.

But DQ11 Switch would probably still manage over 300k in Japan which I doubt Steep could meet worldwide.
I dunno. It's still a pretty game with open world. Ubisoft games, even underperming, usually sell better than people think.
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,594
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Would a 50 dollar drop now vs later translate into more profit?

If no, then you know why it won't happen.
It will probably happen next year, with a wave of big releases to really drive sales.
You'll get a Switch price drop after they phase out Gen1. Not before.

There'll be a major gain on fab-costs after they leave 20nm nodes, as well a major gain in not making nVidia-fuck-up-#1013193 cheaper to acquire.
Maybe just me, but it seems inevitable that Nintendo will want to release a new revision fairly soon due to the Nvidia issue.
I imagine Nintendo would want to replace the old units as soon as possible and the best way to do it would be introducing the new model at a reduced price.

Just what I think will happen
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,485
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The first dragon quest in France was on PS2
But the ip was known because of the manga/anime fly
I know but I worked in a games import shop in Paris during the 90s and Dragon Quest games were huge sellers for us (thanks to the Akira Toriyama art since most people had no idea what was going on in the games).

And yea the manga was popularized by J’ai Lu Manga in the 80s and mid 90s (I have an almost full collection of the J’ai Lu edition)

Maybe just me, but it seems inevitable that Nintendo will want to release a new revision fairly soon due to the Nvidia issue.
I imagine Nintendo would want to replace the old units as soon as possible and the best way to do it would be introducing the new model at a reduced price.

Just what I think will happen
It’s a silent upgrade, they’re just changing the chip’s version, not doing a full blown redesign (which would be difficult anyway because joy-cons)
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,371
0
When should we realistically expect a Switch price drop? How late into a consoles life cycle is typical for a first drop? 2 years? I find it unlikely Nintendo will drop before Christmas - maybe a bundle?
Kimishimas comments last March lead me to believe it wasn't anytime soon. He basically said that one Switch per person was the ultimate goal but it's gonna happen soon because of the price point.
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,594
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It’s a silent upgrade, they’re just changing the chip’s version, not doing a full blown redesign (which would be difficult anyway because joy-cons)
Silent or not, the idea remains.
I think you can probably make some changes to the tablet itself while having the joy con stay compatible as well
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,371
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As an aside, you guys are crazy if you think the "current atmosphere" after E3 doesn't affect them at all. Reggie was asked on fucking Bloomberg why was the show so disappointing. The Nintendo France guy had to do the same kind of lip service when asked about it by Le Figaro (which is a mainstream newspaper by the way, not some gaming blog). The news spread around, the narrative was set, justified or not.

And NCL is far from oblivious to what is being said in the west. The same way they reported the overseas Labo reactions in their latest shareholder meeting (they were so proud to share the "Nintendo always suprises us" sentiment), I'm sure they're not ignoring the narrative that's being formed here. I also bet they're not ignoring either that they sure as hell ain't gonna win any major E3 awards this year after winning Best Game of the Show two years in a row. These kinds of things matter, like it mattered to Sony when they decided to go all out at Paris Games Week after a weak E3 showing last year. I don't know how it'll translate exactly, but I wouldn't be surprised if the next Direct will show a lot more than usual.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,166
0
Tokyo
I know a lot here are a bit sore because of Smash taking all of Nintendo's focus, but I can't really think of any game that is releasing in 2018 that they showed at E3 which is more important or had a better showing.
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,884
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I know a lot here are a bit sore because of Smash taking all of Nintendo's focus, but I can't really think of any game that is releasing in 2018 that they showed at E3 which is more important or had a better showing.
Cyberpunk 2077 will win all of the Best of Show awards.

With a few going to Resident Evil 2 and Last of Us 2 before Smash also.

Would expect Smash to be around #4 in Best of Show awards.

But anyway, their share price has dropped 16% since e3 so it didn't go that well overall.
 
Oct 24, 2017
2,272
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As an aside, you guys are crazy if you think the "current atmosphere" after E3 doesn't affect them at all. Reggie was asked on fucking Bloomberg why was the show so disappointing. The Nintendo France guy had to do the same kind of lip service when asked about it by Le Figaro (which is a mainstream newspaper by the way, not some gaming blog). The news spread around, the narrative was set, justified or not.

And NCL is far from oblivious to what is being said in the west. The same way they reported the overseas Labo reactions in their latest shareholder meeting (they were so proud to share the "Nintendo always suprises us" sentiment), I'm sure they're not ignoring the narrative that's being formed here. I also bet they're not ignoring either that they sure as hell ain't gonna win any major E3 awards this year after winning Best Game of the Show two years in a row. These kinds of things matter, like it mattered to Sony when they decided to go all out at Paris Games Week after a weak E3 showing last year. I don't know how it'll translate exactly, but I wouldn't be surprised if the next Direct will show a lot more than usual.
There is a big difference between saying Nintendo is aware of a consensus that E3 was underwhelming and saying Nintendo is going to do a price cut because of it.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,166
0
Tokyo
Cyberpunk 2077 will win all of the Best of Show awards.

With a few going to Resident Evil 2 and Last of Us 2 before Smash also.

Would expect Smash to be around #4 in Best of Show awards.

But anyway, their share price has dropped 16% since e3 so it didn't go that well overall.
If share price dropping after a showing was indication of imminent problems Apple would be dead. wwwww


I don't think any of those other games are coming out soon, I'm not really sure what gamers in the West like, so I will take your word.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,766
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There is a big difference between saying Nintendo is aware of a consensus that E3 was underwhelming and saying Nintendo is going to do a price cut because of it.
Yeah E3 wasn't the best this year, but it was nowhere near bad enough to destroy the momentum and positive reception that the Switch had built up so far. This isn't like E3 08 where it was so bad that the Wii's reputation suffered from it for the remainder of its life. This was just a typical underwhelming show that while showed good stuff, left people wanting more.
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,884
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If share price dropping after a showing was indication of imminent problems Apple would be dead. wwwww


I don't think any of those other games are coming out soon, I'm not really sure what gamers in the West like, so I will take your word.
Resident Evil 2 is coming out in January which is only a month after Smash. While Last of Us 2 is late 2019 or sometime in 2020 and Cyberpunk is probably 2020.
 
Oct 27, 2017
493
0
This post s kinda funny because at the end of the day, Steep would probably sell more than DQXI on Switch.
If that day is one where Steep is released on Switch and Dragon Quest XI still isn't, then sure. Otherwise, you're talking about a game that wasn't received well and didn't sell well by any objective measure the first time around (certainly not to the standard you think of with other successful Ubisoft games). At least Dragon Quest XI would have Japan and a good reputation in the West to fall back on.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,448
0
I know a lot here are a bit sore because of Smash taking all of Nintendo's focus, but I can't really think of any game that is releasing in 2018 that they showed at E3 which is more important or had a better showing.
Idk. It was the Yoshi/FE delays that make me a bit sore.

Going into more detail why I think it was a lackluster E3 among enthusiasts:

Smash looks pretty incredible. I do think they handled its presence in the direct poorly--a lot of what they highlighted was minutia better suited to Treehouse--and that combined with a content light direct gave the audience both bad pacing and disappointment. It probably also doesn't help that Ridley and Daisy (especially Daisy) were the only newcomers they showed off. This exacerbated the above issue.

But really the crux of the issue is, again, that Smash was made to fill such a big space when people were hungering for more.

The big announcements/surprises we got were leaked or 2019, e.g. Fortnite or DXM.

Limited third party announcements for Switch, particularly unexpected or 'big gets.' Doesn't instill confidence that Switch support is growing, which is something E3 could have done. Again, leaks don't help here.

The non-Smash/Pokemon Nintendo games we thought were most likely going to be unveiled (e.g. Yoshi/FE) were delayed and their showing was brief or non-existent. We got a Mario Party announcement, which isn't that splashy of an announcement though.

No outside hope possible 2019 Nintendo showings occurred (e.g. Metroid, Bayonetta, SMT, AC (?), 2D Mario/Maker (?), 2D Zelda (?)). Sure, there was no guarantee this sort of thing would show up but a) some 2019 content did show up and b) MP4 did show up last year.

Smash/Pokemon were already unveiled. Pokemon was already controversial here. Smash, again, was not shown well despite having plenty of exciting features.
 
Oct 28, 2017
666
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Resident Evil 2 is coming out in January which is only a month after Smash. While Last of Us 2 is late 2019 or sometime in 2020 and Cyberpunk is probably 2020.
As you admit yourself, even the game that is closest to release will not come out until after 2018’s holiday season. The Switch’s biggest battle may not be the holiday season, but the first quarter of next year. I would hope that they are scheduling some things during that time period to help achieve their goal for shipping 20 million Switchs.