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Media Create Sales: Week 23, 2018 (Jun 04 - Jun 10)

Oct 26, 2017
4,884
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As you admit yourself, even the game that is closest to release will not come out until after 2018’s holiday season. The Switch’s biggest battle may not be the holiday season, but the first quarter of next year. I would hope that they are scheduling some things during that time period to help achieve their goal for shipping 20 million Switchs.
I think they MIGHT have Fire Emblem out in March.

And they'll probably have a port in February or so.

But the Switch's Q1 is going to rely more on Smash and Pokemon than major releases compared to the ridiculous onslaught on the PS4 and Xbox One.

DMC5: 2-3m worldwide seller probably
RE2: 5-7m ww
Days Gone/Crackdown 3: 7m/2m
Kingdom Hearts 3: 10m+
The Division 2: 15m+
Anthem: 10m+
Metro Exodus: IDK, but the other games will do a lot.
 

Vena

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,942
0
It’s a silent upgrade, they’re just changing the chip’s version, not doing a full blown redesign (which would be difficult anyway because joy-cons)
It will be silent (I'd suspect) but also still a chip revision. The Tegra X1 is a dead chip on 20nm fab which is becoming more and more expensive with every passing month and year to produce on unique tools that are otherwise phased out as no phone or tablet uses 20nm chips any more. Production runs will get cheaper when you don't have to have your producer use otherwise defunct silicon sizes and the necessary tools. It was also originally rumored that the X1 was picked up because it was a cheap 'buy-in' of a dead surplus on nVidia's hands from a pre-set volume order from nVidia's fab partners at the time of their failed attempts at succeeding with the SHIELD. Once that surplus and previous contractual allotment is run out, the price on production would skyrocket on the node. Exhaust nVidia's defunct Tegra X1s on a the cheap (something in the area of 20mil) -> produce a new cheaper shrunk soc in the meantime -> move to new soc at tail end of production.

By moving to something like 14/16nm you go onto a far more currently standardized node and costs drop both in production and in silicon. You also conveniently (and most likely actually completely coincidentally) get to remove the SoC hardware flaw (and make nVidia pay for the necessary R&D because of their compounding fuck ups).

These savings can be used to make better returns per unit or pass along savings to the end-user as a price-cut. They'd also lead to incidental battery and heat improvements because the 20nm fab is power hungry and hot.
 
Oct 28, 2017
666
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I think they MIGHT have Fire Emblem out in March.

And they'll probably have a port in February or so.

But the Switch's Q1 is going to rely more on Smash and Pokemon than major releases compared to the ridiculous onslaught on the PS4 and Xbox One.

DMC5: 2-3m worldwide seller probably
RE2: 5-7m ww
Days Gone/Crackdown 3: 7m/2m
Kingdom Hearts 3: 10m+
The Division 2: 15m+
Anthem: 10m+
Metro Exodus: IDK, but the other games will do a lot.
It is crazy how all of those games on thrown into a relatively quite time of the year. Maybe MHW inspired them. In either case, I would not be surprised if Nintendo suddenly announced a “Switch+” or some type of revision to be released before the end of the fiscal year to give them a good push.


Idk. It was the Yoshi/FE delays that make me a bit sore.

Going into more detail why I think it was a lackluster E3 among enthusiasts:

Smash looks pretty incredible. I do think they handled its presence in the direct poorly--a lot of what they highlighted was minutia better suited to Treehouse--and that combined with a content light direct gave the audience both bad pacing and disappointment. It probably also doesn't help that Ridley and Daisy (especially Daisy) were the only newcomers they showed off. This exacerbated the above issue.

But really the crux of the issue is, again, that Smash was made to fill such a big space when people were hungering for more.

The big announcements/surprises we got were leaked or 2019, e.g. Fortnite or DXM.

Limited third party announcements for Switch, particularly unexpected or 'big gets.' Doesn't instill confidence that Switch support is growing, which is something E3 could have done. Again, leaks don't help here.

The non-Smash/Pokemon Nintendo games we thought were most likely going to be unveiled (e.g. Yoshi/FE) were delayed and their showing was brief or non-existent. We got a Mario Party announcement, which isn't that splashy of an announcement though.

No outside hope possible 2019 Nintendo showings occurred (e.g. Metroid, Bayonetta, SMT, AC (?), 2D Mario/Maker (?), 2D Zelda (?)). Sure, there was no guarantee this sort of thing would show up but a) some 2019 content did show up and b) MP4 did show up last year.

Smash/Pokemon were already unveiled. Pokemon was already controversial here. Smash, again, was not shown well despite having plenty of exciting features.
Outside of the vocal minority, I don’t think the Smash announcement was in such a bad light. The series also traditionally announce newcomers at a gradual pace before its release anyway.

2019 is an important year for the Switch, and it seems that Nintendo is holding a lot of information. Nintendo likely feels that Smash and Pokémon will cover the holidays. Having said that, Nintendo still hasn’t completely revealed their online program which is coming up in September, so Nintendo still have major things to be revealed for this year.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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Vena I know and I agree but Nintendo won’t « pass on the savings ». They’re very anti price drops un’ess it makes sense (and have been since the Wii days). The Wii waited more than 3 years for its frst price drop, the 3DS has had its average price increase steadily ever since that urgent price drop since it wasn’t selling, the WiiU got a wholping 30$ price drop during its whole lifetime.

Expecting Nintendo to drop the Switch’s price less than 18 months in is pure fantasy.

Nintendo may do specific short time price promotions or bundles but don’t expect more for the coming years anyway (Just like Sony and Microsoft are more or less doing)
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,884
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Bayonetta 3, StarFox Racing, Prime 4, and Fire Emblem Three Houses are all mid tier ish releases for Nintendo though hopefully they'll be great games. Yoshi is also a mid-tier release that has more... questionable quality but they've had infinite development time at this point so maybe it will look good now.

That's 5 mid-tier ish releases and maybe Luigi's Mansion 3 will come next year also. So it's looking like an OK year based on those 5 games.

I'm guessing their big releases will be Animal Crossing and Mario Maker 2 but we'll see... EPD's had a bad year in 2018 so they should have things actually ready for 2019... But maybe not is possible I guess.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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Outside of the vocal minority, I don’t think the Smash announcement was in such a bad light. The series also traditionally announce newcomers at a gradual pace before its release anyway.

2019 is an important year for the Switch, and it seems that Nintendo is holding a lot of information. Nintendo likely feels that Smash and Pokémon will cover the holidays. Having said that, Nintendo still hasn’t completely revealed their online program which is coming up in September, so Nintendo still have major things to be revealed for this year.
I mean, I'd think they'd be right--Smash and Pokemon will be huge this holiday. They will float Switch sales well and sell a lot of copies of the 2017 evergreens.

If Pokemon sells the Switch to children, LABO might also sell very well as "another holiday gift."

That is, everything will probably come together some flavor of quite nicely for Nintendo.

That said, I do think Nintendo had a lackluster conference wrt encouraging and supporting enthusiasm in their core base, which isn't a good thing, even if it isn't the end-all, be-all of yearly sales. Enthusiastic reception of the Switch is what has gotten it this far and Nintendo cultivated that last year. This E3, imo, was a dampener on enthusiasm for obvious and clear reasons that reflect a limited nature of the software flow to Switch in the immediate future, which is not a good thing, even if it isn't a "Nintendoomed! No one will ever buy a Switch again!" thing.
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,884
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Did you forget about Pokémon?
I did :(

Hmm, will be interesting if Nintendo will launch Mario Maker 2, Animal Crossing Switch, and Pokemon Gen 8 all within 9 months of each other since none of those games are coming in Q1 2019 obviously.

Would guess that one of them has to come by or before June or something if all three are happening next year since all three should clear 15m and it would be weird to release all those games within 6 months.

Bayonetta 3, StarFox Racing, Metroid Prime 4, Fire Emblem Switch, and Yoshi all seem like 2-5m sellers with Bayonetta 3 more around 2m... Not sure Fire Emblem will hit 5m though.
 
Oct 28, 2017
666
0
I mean, I'd think they'd be right--Smash and Pokemon will be huge this holiday. They will float Switch sales well and sell a lot of copies of the 2017 evergreens.

If Pokemon sells the Switch to children, LABO might also sell very well as "another holiday gift."

That is, everything will probably come together some flavor of quite nicely for Nintendo.

That said, I do think Nintendo had a lackluster conference wrt encouraging and supporting enthusiasm in their core base, which isn't a good thing, even if it isn't the end-all, be-all of yearly sales. Enthusiastic reception of the Switch is what has gotten it this far and Nintendo cultivated that last year. This E3, imo, was a dampener on enthusiasm for obvious and clear reasons that reflect a limited nature of the software flow to Switch in the immediate future, which is not a good thing, even if it isn't a "Nintendoomed! No one will ever buy a Switch again!" thing.
I don’t disagree. I personally like what they showed, but I understand why some fans are frustrated. It’s obvious that Nintendo (and other developers) is withholding major information about the Switch that will affect the near future.
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,884
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I don’t disagree. I personally like what they showed, but I understand why some fans are frustrated. It’s obvious that Nintendo (and other developers) is withholding major information about the Switch that will affect the near future.
I think fans are frustrated because Q3 2018 and Q1 2019 don't look very good for Switch (though Q1 will be fine if Fire Emblem is actually out in March).

Well, and this year's Pokemon having a lot of......... interesting design choices.

I think Nintendo will have NSMBU in October and I think they haven't announced their Q2 2019 lineup yet, but the Switch's lineup after July 13th is pretty meh for a while.
 
Oct 25, 2017
7,863
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I think fans are frustrated because Q3 2018 and Q1 2019 don't look very good for Switch (though Q1 will be fine if Fire Emblem is actually out in March).

Well, and this year's Pokemon having a lot of......... interesting design choices.

I think Nintendo will have NSMBU in October and I think they haven't announced their Q2 2019 lineup yet, but the Switch's lineup after July 13th is pretty meh for a while.
It's way too early to comment on that.

The Let's Go games will do fine.
 
Oct 25, 2017
705
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I think fans are frustrated because Q3 2018 and Q1 2019 don't look very good for Switch (though Q1 will be fine if Fire Emblem is actually out in March).

Well, and this year's Pokemon having a lot of......... interesting design choices.

I think Nintendo will have NSMBU in October and I think they haven't announced their Q2 2019 lineup yet, but the Switch's lineup after July 13th is pretty meh for a while.
You have Taiko, Xenoblade 2 DLC and other 3rd party titles between the 13th of July till Mario Party's release.

Edit: god damn auto-typing on the phone.
 
Last edited:
Oct 25, 2017
2,644
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I think fans are frustrated because Q3 2018 and Q1 2019 don't look very good for Switch (though Q1 will be fine if Fire Emblem is actually out in March).

Well, and this year's Pokemon having a lot of......... interesting design choices.

I think Nintendo will have NSMBU in October and I think they haven't announced their Q2 2019 lineup yet, but the Switch's lineup after July 13th is pretty meh for a while.
For general fans, maybe. As someone who love Japanese games, I couldn't be happier for Q3. Octopath, Captain Toad, Disgaea 1 remake, Taiko, Higurashi, Closed Nightmare, SaGa, Torna DLC... Though I will not buy all of them at release day, I am happy for the options available, and will buy them all in the future.

Q1 2019 is still too far away. Let's wait for the next direct before deciding if it is good.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,945
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I mean, I'd think they'd be right--Smash and Pokemon will be huge this holiday. They will float Switch sales well and sell a lot of copies of the 2017 evergreens.

If Pokemon sells the Switch to children, LABO might also sell very well as "another holiday gift."

That is, everything will probably come together some flavor of quite nicely for Nintendo.

That said, I do think Nintendo had a lackluster conference wrt encouraging and supporting enthusiasm in their core base, which isn't a good thing, even if it isn't the end-all, be-all of yearly sales. Enthusiastic reception of the Switch is what has gotten it this far and Nintendo cultivated that last year. This E3, imo, was a dampener on enthusiasm for obvious and clear reasons that reflect a limited nature of the software flow to Switch in the immediate future, which is not a good thing, even if it isn't a "Nintendoomed! No one will ever buy a Switch again!" thing.
Enthusiasts are fickle and they go from 0 to 100 on everything, something can be revealed tomorrow or give it 2 months when a direct is announced and e3 will be a distant memory, it is always a distant memory rather quickly and nothing actually sticks unless it effects them monetarily like microsoft did at the beginning of the gen
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,884
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Enthusiasts are fickle and they go from 0 to 100 on everything, something can be revealed tomorrow or give it 2 months when a direct is announced and e3 will be a distant memory, it is always a distant memory rather quickly and nothing actually sticks unless it effects them monetarily like microsoft did at the beginning of the gen
Their stock dropped like 16% after e3...... This wasn't just enthusiasts who thought the e3 was bad.

They've had a bleh year in 2018 and didn't show any new information other than:

-Fire Emblem and Yoshi got delayed
-They didn't get a single new AAA third party announcement
-Smash is launching later than expected
-They had no other major surprises (unless a port of NSMBU or something would count as major) for 2018.
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,688
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What is the bomba line for XB2 DLC in Japan retail? Under 100k? Under 75k? Under 50k?
is there a similar situation to compare it to?

9 month later standalone story DLC to a JRPG, but also attainable via owning the game and buying digitally. With a season pass also an option.

no idea what to expect so I'll go with a big range from 20k to 75k.
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,884
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噂で買って事実で売る

Buy on rumor, sell on reality.

Nothing to see here, just prudent stock management.
So is there literally anything that could make you believe that Nintendo had an e3 that many disliked from a non-enthusiast perspective.

Like anything at all.

I'm actually curious...
 
Oct 27, 2017
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[UPDATE] Switch physical games, Japan, Summer (44 games)

June 07: Little Nightmares
June 08: Sushi Striker: The Way of Sushido
June 14: GOD WARS: Great War of Japanese Mythology
June 21: THE 密室からの脱出 ~運命をつなぐ35の謎~
June 21: THE 麻雀
June 21: Minecraft
June 22: Mario Tennis Ace
June 28: Ys VIII : Lacrimosa of Dana
June 28: Death Mark

July 12: Shining Resonance Refrain
July 13: Octopath Traveler
July 13: Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker
July 19: Sonic Mania Plus
July 19: Taiko Drum Master: Nintendo Switch Version!
July 19: Closed Nightmare
July 19: 不思議の幻想郷TOD -RELOADED-
July 26: Higurashi no Naku Koro ni Hou
July 26: Rockman X Anniversary Collection 1&2
July 26: Dragon Quest X All in One Package
July 26: Makai Senki Disgaea Refine
July 26: Waku Waku Doubutsu Land
July 26: Daitoshokan no Hitsujikai: Library Party
July 26: Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus

August 02: SaGa : Scarlet Grace - Hiiro no Yabô
August 02: Code of Princess EX
August 02: Pro Yakyuu Famista Evolution
August 02: LEGO: The Incredibles
August 09: Okami HD
August 09: Waku Waku Sweets: Amai Okashi ga Dekiru kana?
August 09: Jake Hunter Detective Story: Prism of Eyes
August 09: Darkest Dungeon
August 09: Layton’s Mystery Journey: Katrielle and the Millionaires Conspiracy DX
August 23: My Hero Academia: One’s Justice
August 30: Psyvariar Delta
August 30: Little Dragons Cafe
August 30: Tennis World Tour
August 30: Blade Strangers

September 06: Hakuoki Shinkai: Fuukaden
September 06: SNK Heroines Tag Team Frenzy
September 07: NBA 2K19
September 13: Code: Realize ~Bouquet of Rainbows~
September 20: STEINS; GATE ELITE
September 20: ニル・アドミラリの天秤 色ドリ撫子 (Nil Admirari no Tenbin: Teito Genwaku Kitan)
September 21: Xenoblade Chronicles 2: Torna: The Golden Country



Switch physical games, Japan, Fall (12 games)

September 25/28: FIFA 19
September 27: Dragon Ball FighterZ
September 27: Warriors Orochi 3
September 27: WORK × WORK
September 27: NORN 9 LOFN
September 27: Valkyria Chronicles 4

October 04: Rockman 11: Gear of Destiny!!
October 05: Super Mario Party
October 25: Beyblade Burst: Battle Zero

November 16: Pokémon Let’s Go, Pikachu
November 16: Pokémon Let’s Go, Eevee

December 07: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
 
Oct 27, 2017
657
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Paris
is there a similar situation to compare it to?

9 month later standalone story DLC to a JRPG, but also attainable via owning the game and buying digitally. With a season pass also an option.

no idea what to expect so I'll go with a big range from 20k to 75k.
Persona 3 FES might be the closest thing, maybe.
It was sold as a standalone release in Japan but there also was some kind of incentive for original Persona 3 users and also a SKU with both the original game with added content and the extra story?
It's been a decade and I'm not too sure anymore, I think duckroll mentioned it (when talking about SMTIV Final sales two years ago)

Anyway I don't really know how the game will be tracked, like will it appear in Famitsu digital monthly chart?
Nintendo probably won't share anything if it doesn't cross 1M too which will probably not happen.

As for Japan 50-75% of Xenoblade 2 sales should be the target (retail+digital).
 
Nov 23, 2017
6,570
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Their stock dropped like 16% after e3...... This wasn't just enthusiasts who thought the e3 was bad.
you need to stop relating stocks to Company performance,share holder are incredible, incredible ignorant about games market, Stock dropped after Switch reveal.
Stock right now sit at pre- September numbers, AKA when holiday season picks up and numbers start to climb.
 
Apr 21, 2018
1,627
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DMC5: 2-3m worldwide seller probably
RE2: 5-7m ww
Days Gone/Crackdown 3: 7m/2m
Kingdom Hearts 3: 10m+
The Division 2: 15m+
Anthem: 10m+
Metro Exodus: IDK, but the other games will do a lot.

I bet a few of those get delayed. I wouldn't be surprised to see most of that list get delayed across Spring and Summer tbh.
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,023
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Japan
www.famicomdojo.tv
So is there literally anything that could make you believe that Nintendo had an e3 that many disliked from a non-enthusiast perspective.

Like anything at all.

I'm actually curious...
I think it was indeed a disappointing E3. But stock often falls after bug events. Not usually thing much, but it will probably stabilize fairly soon.

Not saying it will happen but some pubs who put out games that are more Japan centric, might hold off until TGS to announce them. But that late they will likely be 2019 titles.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,166
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Tokyo
So is there literally anything that could make you believe that Nintendo had an e3 that many disliked from a non-enthusiast perspective.

Like anything at all.

I'm actually curious...
To be clear, are you asking me if I think people who didn't even know a video game trade show was happening until it was over had built up their expectations for it so much that they were disappointed by what they were shown?

Yeah, I don't think there were many cases of that.

I think they could have paced it better, but Nintendo uses E3 as a platform to show of some of their games, not all of their games and all of their 3rd party partners games. If they wanted to do that they could have easily added clips from the 40 or so games that we know are coming out soon, but they didn't, they wanted to focus on Smash, like they said they would, so they did.
 
Nov 23, 2017
6,570
0
What is the bomba line for XB2 DLC in Japan retail? Under 100k? Under 75k? Under 50k?
imn gonna imply you are being serious, the number here will be an extremely difficult matter, as people that bough the season pass (I did) are getting the Golden Country Prequel by defualt without needing to buy the Stand Alone
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,191
0
you need to stop relating stocks to Company performance,share holder are incredible, incredible ignorant about games market, Stock dropped after Switch reveal.
Stock right now sit at pre- September numbers, AKA when holiday season picks up and numbers start to climb.
And some random era member thinks he knows the stock market better than investors? LOL
 
Nov 23, 2017
6,570
0
And some random era member thinks he knows the stock market better than investors? LOL
I know I likely know more about games than em
https://kotaku.com/nintendos-shareholder-q-a-is-always-good-for-a-laugh-1783124836

you just need to read the transcript of the Q&A session to know this is not a baseless claim
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Those are the same investors that thought Nintendo 100% owned Pokemon GO and it was in house developed