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Mr Swine

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
6,024
Sweden
I guess I should put my spin on how things will look like when the numbers are released

Mario Tennis Aces: 85k
Minecraft: 50k
New Gundam Breaker: 80k
Switch: 50k
PS4: 30k
 

Pooroomoo

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,972
Dark Souls Remastered has a pretty incredible download ratio according to Famitsu.

54,306 download sales (compared to 77,435 physical sales) during its four days of release

Gematsu doesn't seems to note that those are still survey/estimate based but here are some numbers : https://gematsu.com/2018/06/dark-so...igital-copies-in-its-first-four-days-in-japan
I honestly have more and more doubts about Famitsu's methodology for estimating digital numbers. If Famitsu are to be believed, Japan, which used to be behind in digital sales when compared to ROTW, and where used game sales are a serious market, has suddenly become this stronghold and beacon of light in the forefront of WW digital sales? It just doesn't make sense.

Famitsu's estimates smell strongly like vgchartz quality "estimates",
 

Wander_

Banned
Feb 26, 2018
5,552
I honestly have more and more doubts about Famitsu's methodology for estimating digital numbers. If Famitsu are to be believed, Japan, which used to be behind in digital sales when compared to ROTW, and where used game sales are a serious market, has suddenly become this stronghold and beacon of light in the forefront of WW digital sales? It just doesn't make sense.

Famitsu's estimates smell strongly like vgchartz quality "estimates",

what Famitsu digital numbers are you talking about?
 

Johnny

Member
Oct 28, 2017
486
Why are people assuming a big jump for Switch this week? It it common for mid tier titles like Aces? Or is it more about Minecraft?
 

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,354
I honestly have more and more doubts about Famitsu's methodology for estimating digital numbers. If Famitsu are to be believed, Japan, which used to be behind in digital sales when compared to ROTW, and where used game sales are a serious market, has suddenly become this stronghold and beacon of light in the forefront of WW digital sales? It just doesn't make sense.

Famitsu's estimates smell strongly like vgchartz quality "estimates",

?. These estimates are usually nowhere near the splits in west. Dark Souls is exception. Usually we get something like 15-30% digital share for new titles from these estimates. In west it's close or over 50%.
 

Andri

Member
Mar 20, 2018
6,017
Switzerland
Why are people assuming a big jump for Switch this week? It it common for mid tier titles like Aces? Or is it more about Minecraft?

Switch has been on an Uptick.
That, combined with the full effect of Fortnite dropping(heh), as well as the Octopath Expansion(which was quite a surprise i imagine) and MTA and Minecraft releasing in the same week.
Plus, we are entering the Summer Season, and thus exiting the weakest sales window for Japan.
 

Cubo

Member
May 14, 2018
506
I'll make my first prediction! I have a feeling the new software won't do as well as expected, but the hardware will be great. Let's see how wrong I am...

Mario Tennis: 100k
Minecraft: 70k
NGB: 70k
Switch: 65k
PS4: 20k
 

MysticGon

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 31, 2017
7,285
I'll say

Mario Tennis Aces - 70k
Minecraft - 60k
New Gundam Breaker - 85k
Switch - 55k
PS4 - 28k
 

casiopao

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
5,044
Why are people assuming a big jump for Switch this week? It it common for mid tier titles like Aces? Or is it more about Minecraft?

That mid tier title often sold multiple times more than many famed AA title from third party lol.

And Minecraft it indeed hit 100k FW. Will become Switch best selling 3rd party by the end of the year lol.
 

KayMote

Member
Nov 5, 2017
1,326
Might be a stupid question, but do we know if Zelda keeps these steady and constant selling numbers also in the western market?
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Might be a stupid question, but do we know if Zelda keeps these steady and constant selling numbers also in the western market?

Still charting in the US, the UK, France, Germany ...

These kind of legs for a Zelda game are unheard of and will make BotW the best-selling Zelda game (it already is) by a big margin.
 

Andri

Member
Mar 20, 2018
6,017
Switzerland
Might be a stupid question, but do we know if Zelda keeps these steady and constant selling numbers also in the western market?
Looking at Nintendos reports for sales of Zelda since it launched:

Q4 2016: Japan was 14.1% of total BOTW sales.
Q1 2017: Japan was 15.3% of total BOTW sales.
Q2 2017: Japan was 14.4% of total BOTW sales.
Q3 2017: Japan was 13.4% of total BOTW sales.
Q4 2017: Japan was 12.8% of total BOTW sales.

So looking at that, Zelda sales in Not Japan have actually become stronger as time goes on.

Source are the supplementary information pdfs from Nintendos earnings release, which give a divide for notable sellers as Japan/Overseas.

Edit: had to change all the numbers, Math is hard especially in the morning.
Point still stands though, and it actually makes for a nicer progression.
 
Last edited:

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,725
Italy
MC was difficult to predict because it doesn't behave as your typical game. 60k is still the biggest debut for the game which is amazing considering it's available on all platforms and has been available on the Switch eShop for months.
 

Adventureracing

The Fallen
Nov 7, 2017
8,024
Seems pretty bad for fundamental especially considering it's unlike to sell much more.

Good start for tennis, will have to see legs but that surely puts 500K+ as a realistic possibility. Minecraft big opening but it's all about legs.

Waiting to see HW sales. Hopefully the next few weeks are pretty big for switch.
 

MysticGon

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 31, 2017
7,285
What makes you think New Gundam Breaker will open stronger than Mario tennis Aces ?

GB3 did 141k in its launch week and though it's dropping Vita I'm sure they'll be some Vita owners converting to PS4, despite the bad reviews. Mario Tennis Open on 3DS opened pardon the pun at 101k. Plus Gundam games are front loaded so I think it'll get the jump on Mario.
 

UltraMagnus

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
15,670
I wonder if Nintendo would let Camelot do another Golden Sun if Mario Tennis (and inevitably) Golf do well enough on Switch.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,276
I'll be the happiest Nintendo gamer ever if we get a Mario Golf game for switch with the quality of MTA, yes 77 metacritic and all.

crossing my fingers.
it'd be interesting, since the core gameplay mechanics haven't been expanded upon much since 64 (as far as I know).


aside, did Mario golf invent the 2 part hitting system we see in that game and other golf games like golf story?
or is it from something else originally?
 

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,354
MC was difficult to predict because it doesn't behave as your typical game. 60k is still the biggest debut for the game which is amazing considering it's available on all platforms and has been available on the Switch eShop for months.

That has been true every time Minecraft has had retail release though. First available digitally and later retail release.
 

Sphinx

Member
Nov 29, 2017
2,376
it'd be interesting, since the core gameplay mechanics haven't been expanded upon much since 64 (as far as I know).


aside, did Mario golf invent the 2 part hitting system we see in that game and other golf games like golf story?
or is it from something else originally?

not sure who started the power bar thing but it's everywhere.

I bought and platinumed Everybody's Golf for PS4 day 1 to tide me over but I prefer Mario Golf's weird courses, characters and gameplay modes.

also, if you guys allow me to brag, I was ranked #1 several times on Mario Golf 3DS online worldwide tournaments.....

mariogolf2018a9jv1.jpg


yeah diehard to the point that I had to force myself to stop, I was missing out on a ton of games but a Mario Golf game for switch would be... uhh no words. just gaming heaven.
 

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,664
WA, australia
http://orenowebgo.hatenablog.jp/entry/2018/06/27/131654
It looks like
Mario Tennis 120k
Gundam Breaker 64k
Minecraft 60k
Oof all round...
Looking at Nintendos reports for sales of Zelda since it launched:

Q4 2016: Japan was 14.1% of total BOTW sales.
Q1 2017: Japan was 15.3% of total BOTW sales.
Q2 2017: Japan was 14.4% of total BOTW sales.
Q3 2017: Japan was 13.4% of total BOTW sales.
Q4 2017: Japan was 12.8% of total BOTW sales.

So looking at that, Zelda sales in Not Japan have actually become stronger as time goes on.

Source are the supplementary information pdfs from Nintendos earnings release, which give a divide for notable sellers as Japan/Overseas.

Edit: had to change all the numbers, Math is hard especially in the morning.
Point still stands though, and it actually makes for a nicer progression.
thank you for this, this is a quality post!

Breath of the Wild is heavily tied to switch purchases too. I wouldn't be surprised if this implies that the switch itself is having relatively better 'legs' in not-Japan.
 

Cubo

Member
May 14, 2018
506
That has been true every time Minecraft has had retail release though. First available digitally and later retail release.

So I guess that's why it's never had a huge opening in any platform, which is what we are discussing, right? Switch seems to follow pattern, just a bit bigger than usual.

Still, I would love if we sometime had an update on the total sales because I think they must be quite big now even if just digital. Nintendo is the publisher in some regions I think so maybe it could show up in their fiscal reports some time?
 

Charamiwa

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,049
MTA is around expectations, nothing outstanding but solid.

Minecraft is good, but damn you YSO for making me think of a 100k+ opening.