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sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,725
Italy
MC will reach 100k at the second or third week anyway.

Tennis is doing very well considering the drop in popularity of Mario sport games.
 

Deleted member 2791

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
19,054
Yeah Mario Tennis was going to be big no matter what. Hopefully Nintendo will put as much budget in a revival of Mario Golf.
 

mclem

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,417
also, if you guys allow me to brag, I was ranked #1 several times on Mario Golf 3DS online worldwide tournaments.....

mariogolf2018a9jv1.jpg


yeah diehard to the point that I had to force myself to stop, I was missing out on a ton of games but a Mario Golf game for switch would be... uhh no words. just gaming heaven.

How does that ranking work? Is it that everyone at -16 gets #1, or is there a further metric to subdivide them further?
 

mclem

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,417
aside, did Mario golf invent the 2 part hitting system we see in that game and other golf games like golf story?
or is it from something else originally?

I can't find an earlier reference to the three-click swing than Nintendo's Golf in arcades (and later NES), although it's been a staple of computer golf games for quite some time; I suspect it's one of those situations of convergent evolution, since I'd be surprised if the more simulationy-minded developers of early computer golf games would be looking at arcades for inspiration.
 

Nocturnal

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,321
I expect both games to hit 500K by the end of August.
Also Minecraft during December should have several weeks that would be bigger than it's launch, if it turns out to be a 60K launch week.
 

Sphinx

Member
Nov 29, 2017
2,376
How does that ranking work? Is it that everyone at -16 gets #1, or is there a further metric to subdivide them further?

the first to get to the score wins the top placement for that particular score, so there was always just one placement for every player, no shared placements like in normal golf.

in that pic it means I was the first to get -16 points.

but very very few people would get such scores anyway, I remember the top 10 always being the same people, me, an australian dude (easily the best of the bunch) and the rest all japanese.

so it was basically a battle among the "elite" players to get the highest possible score first.
 

Johnny

Member
Oct 28, 2017
486
Switch has been on an Uptick.
That, combined with the full effect of Fortnite dropping(heh), as well as the Octopath Expansion(which was quite a surprise i imagine) and MTA and Minecraft releasing in the same week.
Plus, we are entering the Summer Season, and thus exiting the weakest sales window for Japan.

That mid-teir title, Mario Tennis, has a history of good numbers and decent legs

That mid tier title often sold multiple times more than many famed AA title from third party lol.

And Minecraft it indeed hit 100k FW. Will become Switch best selling 3rd party by the end of the year lol.

All right then, I'm ready for some juicy Switch numbers.
 

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,664
WA, australia
Why oof all around? Aces numbers are good, Minecraft is by far the biggest opening it had in japan (just not what Yso prediction was), and Gundam numbers are not exactly surprising (?)
While MTA is solid, it still underperformed in comparison to the 3DS game iirc. Not that I was expecting it to do well (my prediction was like 98k) - just that I feel being on the switch, and with its production value, meant an opportunity to do so much better than it did. There also hasn't been a big switch game in a while, so I was hoping this would gain a boost because of that.

Minecraft did well relatively speaking but again, could have done so much better. Initially, we were expecting >100k along with Yso, and it did 40k(!) less than that. With this opening I doubt it can reach the high levels that people think it will reach (I.e. a million within one year).

New Gundam Breaker... yeah that doesn't need explaining lol
 

Pooroomoo

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,972
All right then, I'm ready for some juicy Switch numbers.
Don't build your expectations too much, many people here have this tendency to expect the moon the moment a positive rumor comes out, and so usually (though not always) end up being disappointed by the actual numbers.

Based on YSO estimates of not only MTA but also Minecraft opening of over 100k, some people expected/hoped for a larger Switch boost. According to current reports, Minecraft launch is "only" (still the best ever) 60k and MTA launch is "only" 120k (still quite good), so realistically I would say that anything between 50k and 60k would be within my expectations.

50k I would consider ok, 55k good, 60k nice, and above that really nice. :-)
 

not_swift

Member
May 2, 2018
163
On mario tennis aces, I can't help but wonder how much was sold digitally. In Europe and and NA they had the double coin promotional offer for preordering the game, but I can't tell if they had this offer in Japan, due to not being able to speak japanese. Unfortunately these dont get reported.
 

Andri

Member
Mar 20, 2018
6,017
Switzerland
Don't build your expectations too much, many people here have this tendency to expect the moon the moment a positive rumor comes out, and so usually (though not always) end up being disappointed by the actual numbers.

Based on YSO estimates of not only MTA but also Minecraft opening of over 100k, some people expected/hoped for a larger Switch boost. According to current reports, Minecraft launch is "only" (still the best ever) 60k and MTA launch is "only" 120k (still quite good), so realistically I would say that anything between 50k and 60k would be within my expectations.

50k I would consider ok, 55k good, 60k nice, and above that really nice. :-)

Who is expecting the moon here though ?

From the predictions people made in the last few pages, most people fall between 50 and 60k, with only 3 people predicting more(once 65k once 68k and one outlier of 75k).
 

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Nov 23, 2017
6,878
Don't build your expectations too much, many people here have this tendency to expect the moon the moment a positive rumor comes out, and so usually (though not always) end up being disappointed by the actual numbers.

Based on YSO estimates of not only MTA but also Minecraft opening of over 100k, some people expected/hoped for a larger Switch boost. According to current reports, Minecraft launch is "only" (still the best ever) 60k and MTA launch is "only" 120k (still quite good), so realistically I would say that anything between 50k and 60k would be within my expectations.

50k I would consider ok, 55k good, 60k nice, and above that really nice. :-)
I think it could easily be on the 60K, I mean last week was nothing "big" comming out and it still was 48K, for the past month sales been increasing, from 31K to 33K to 36K to 40K and last week 48K.
 

Grads

Member
Oct 25, 2017
754
On mario tennis aces, I can't help but wonder how much was sold digitally. In Europe and and NA they had the double coin promotional offer for preordering the game, but I can't tell if they had this offer in Japan, due to not being able to speak japanese. Unfortunately these dont get reported.
It did have that promotional offer too.
 

Andri

Member
Mar 20, 2018
6,017
Switzerland
yes, but like release week only. hopping to see it breach into the Million seller club
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/index.html
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/index.html
1-2 Swtich at 2.3M gives me hopes Mario Party is an sleeping Giant for October

I think it will be bigtime.

In my friend circle of 5 switch owners, 3 have already preordered the game, with myself currently holding out till the eshop preorder releases since i want it digital.
 

not_swift

Member
May 2, 2018
163
yes, but like release week only. hopping to see it breach into the Million seller club
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/index.html
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/index.html
1-2 Swtich at 2.3M gives me hopes Mario Party is an sleeping Giant for October

I dont see how it will be a sleeping giant. Its just a plain giant. Mario Party 8 sold over 7 million units on the Wii. Mario Party 10 sold over 2 million units on the wii u.

Super Mario Party will be the Switch's third best selling game this year.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
I dont see how it will be a sleeping giant. Its just a plain giant. Mario Party 8 sold over 7 million units on the Wii. Mario Party 10 sold over 2 million units on the wii u.

Super Mario Party will be the Switch's third best selling game this year.
Yup. It'll be big regardless. The question is how big. Can it do 10M+? That would mean Wii level sales, so that's a very lofty goal indeed. Still, 7M would make it very big, too, and definitely the third biggest game of this year (although maybe MK8D and BOTW will sell more this year?).
 

Pooroomoo

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,972
Who is expecting the moon here though ?

From the predictions people made in the last few pages, most people fall between 50 and 60k, with only 3 people predicting more(once 65k once 68k and one outlier of 75k).
With "the moon" I wasn't referring specifically to this time, and anyway I meant more the way people talk than the numbers. Case in point we have someone who read what was written in this thread (the person I responded to) ask "Why are people assuming a big jump for Switch this week?" and then "All right then, I'm ready for some juicy Switch numbers." when the expected numbers, while good, are not "a big jump" nor "juicy numbers".
 

Andri

Member
Mar 20, 2018
6,017
Switzerland
I dont see how it will be a sleeping giant. Its just a plain giant. Mario Party 8 sold over 7 million units on the Wii. Mario Party 10 sold over 2 million units on the wii u.

Super Mario Party will be the Switch's third best selling game this year.

Will it though ?

Smash and pokemon will take NR1/2, whatever the order is between these two.

But then there are games like Splatoon, which is looking to sell almost as much this year as it did last year, MK8DX with such huge legs that it can easily sell 5+ million this year, which would bring it over Mario Party in most cases.

And that is ignoring Labo, which could sell anywhere from 1 to 10 million depending on how well the Holiday season goes for it.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
PS4 drop was worse than I expected, didn't expect it to drop down all the way to 20k. Switch bump basically non-existent, which is a bit of a shame. Good debut for Minecraft and MTA, Gundam Breaker sold awfully as expected. All in all not a very nice week, then.

Did we know Fifa 18 Switch sold over 100k on Media Create already?
 

Andri

Member
Mar 20, 2018
6,017
Switzerland
With "the moon" I wasn't referring specifically to this time, and anyway I meant more the way people talk than the numbers. Case in point we have someone who read what was written in this thread (the person I responded to) ask "Why are people assuming a big jump for Switch this week?" and then "All right then, I'm ready for some juicy Switch numbers." when the expected numbers, while good, are not "a big jump" nor "juicy numbers".


But what are "juicy numbers" then anyway ?

If it sells 60k, that would be almost 3 times as much as what it did last year in week 25, with the MTA opening at 120k being as big as Arms two first weeks combined, and MC at 60k being higher than all the other switch titles that charted last year combined that week.

If that are not juicy numbers then what is ?
Only DS like numbers ? In which case there will never be a Juicy week number again in Japan.

Edit:
Wow, in the time i typed this, numbers released, so now half of what i wrote is just fanfiction on a alternate reality.
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
But what are "juicy numbers" then anyway ?

If it sells 60k, that would be almost 3 times as much as what it did last year in week 25, with the MTA opening at 120k being as big as Arms two first weeks combined, and MC at 60k being higher than all the other switch titles that charted last year combined that week.

If that are not juicy numbers then what is ?
Only DS like numbers ? In which case there will never be a Juicy week number again in Japan.

A bump from last week would've been nice at least.
 

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,354
PS4 drop was worse than I expected, didn't expect it to drop down all the way to 20k. Switch bump basically non-existent, which is a bit of a shame. Good debut for Minecraft and MTA, Gundam Breaker sold awfully as expected. All in all not a very nice week, then.

Did we know Fifa 18 Switch sold over 100k on Media Create already?

Ouch for those PS4 numbers.

PS4 had two weeks price cut with Days of Play model havign lower price. I really don't see how this drop is that surprising.