The lack on visibility on the software side and the Switch unresolved supply issues still make things difficult to guess.
5m is a lock but the ceiling is unknown right now.
5m is a lock but the ceiling is unknown right now.
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Media Create Sales: Week 25, 2020 (Jun 15 - Jun 21)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
So many unpredictable things going on, biggest one is where will Ring Fit adventure be at lifetime in japan and will it hit 10mil WW??
I was thinking about whether we can consider the 'Expansion-based business case' for Pokémon Sword & Shield a success over the 'third version business case', so I did some maths.
For the Sword/Shield expansion, you need to buy the base game. In a world where people would need to own the original game of a Pokémon generation on order to buy the third version, this would be a rough estimate how much players would spend on average and in total on a main series Pokémon generation:
Sun/Moon - 16.18m
Ultra Sun/Ultra Moon - 8.77m
Avg = (16.18m+8.77m)/16.18m * $45 = 1.542 * $45 = $69.39
Gross = (16.18m+8.77m) * $45 = $1122.8m
Sword/Shield - 17.37m
Avg = 1 * $60 = $60
Gross = 17.37m * $60 = $1042.2m
Since prices of Pokémon games are very stable, I simply used the launch MSRP as average purchase price of every copy. That's $40 on GBA and DS; $45 on 3DS; and $60 on NSW.
For Pokémon Sword & Shield and its Expansion-based business model to meet the average spending of a Gen VII player under our premise, 69.39/60.00 = 15.7% of all Pokémon Sword & Shield base game owners needs to buy the Expansion Pass. In such a case, gross revenue would be $1205.3m.
That feels like a percentage that is very realistic to hit. I don't have a lot of comparisons, but as an example, about 20% of all Monster Hunter World owners bought Iceborne. Considering the higher developments costs associated with HD games, I think The Pokémon Company et al are aiming for a conversion percentage than 15%, but this business model seems to be a fairly safe route to grow the franchise. And I haven't taken cost of goods sold into consideration. The publisher gets a higher percentage of the retail price from digital goods than physical goods, so margins will be higher, so the real percentage is even lower than the 15.7% I've calculated. And since it's about money instead of units, the real risk is simply the gross revenue, which currently is a gap of only (1122.8m/1042.2m=) 7.7% - and that assumes an identical digital share, which is obviously not the case.
So the Expansion Pass will definitely pay off.
For the Sword/Shield expansion, you need to buy the base game. In a world where people would need to own the original game of a Pokémon generation on order to buy the third version, this would be a rough estimate how much players would spend on average and in total on a main series Pokémon generation:
Ruby/Sapphire - 16.22m
Emerald - 7.06m
Avg = (16.22m+7.06m)/16.22m * $40 = 1.435 * $40 = $57.41
Gross = (16.22m+7.06m) * $40 = $931.2m
Diamond/Pearl - 17.67m
Platinum - 7.60m
Avg = (17.67m+7.60m)/17.67m * $40 = 1.430 * $40 = $57.20
Gross = (17.67m+7.60m) * $40 = $1010.8m
Black/White - 15.64m
Black 2/White 2 - 8.52m
Avg = (15.64m+8.52m)/15.64m * $40 = 1.545 * $40 = $61.79
Gross = (15.64m+8.52m) * $40 = $966.4m
XY - 16.45m
Avg = 1 * $45 = $45
Gross = 16.45m * $45 = $740.3m
Emerald - 7.06m
Avg = (16.22m+7.06m)/16.22m * $40 = 1.435 * $40 = $57.41
Gross = (16.22m+7.06m) * $40 = $931.2m
Diamond/Pearl - 17.67m
Platinum - 7.60m
Avg = (17.67m+7.60m)/17.67m * $40 = 1.430 * $40 = $57.20
Gross = (17.67m+7.60m) * $40 = $1010.8m
Black/White - 15.64m
Black 2/White 2 - 8.52m
Avg = (15.64m+8.52m)/15.64m * $40 = 1.545 * $40 = $61.79
Gross = (15.64m+8.52m) * $40 = $966.4m
XY - 16.45m
Avg = 1 * $45 = $45
Gross = 16.45m * $45 = $740.3m
Sun/Moon - 16.18m
Ultra Sun/Ultra Moon - 8.77m
Avg = (16.18m+8.77m)/16.18m * $45 = 1.542 * $45 = $69.39
Gross = (16.18m+8.77m) * $45 = $1122.8m
Sword/Shield - 17.37m
Avg = 1 * $60 = $60
Gross = 17.37m * $60 = $1042.2m
Since prices of Pokémon games are very stable, I simply used the launch MSRP as average purchase price of every copy. That's $40 on GBA and DS; $45 on 3DS; and $60 on NSW.
For Pokémon Sword & Shield and its Expansion-based business model to meet the average spending of a Gen VII player under our premise, 69.39/60.00 = 15.7% of all Pokémon Sword & Shield base game owners needs to buy the Expansion Pass. In such a case, gross revenue would be $1205.3m.
That feels like a percentage that is very realistic to hit. I don't have a lot of comparisons, but as an example, about 20% of all Monster Hunter World owners bought Iceborne. Considering the higher developments costs associated with HD games, I think The Pokémon Company et al are aiming for a conversion percentage than 15%, but this business model seems to be a fairly safe route to grow the franchise. And I haven't taken cost of goods sold into consideration. The publisher gets a higher percentage of the retail price from digital goods than physical goods, so margins will be higher, so the real percentage is even lower than the 15.7% I've calculated. And since it's about money instead of units, the real risk is simply the gross revenue, which currently is a gap of only (1122.8m/1042.2m=) 7.7% - and that assumes an identical digital share, which is obviously not the case.
So the Expansion Pass will definitely pay off.
What do you think about MHW: ICEBORN. Did the expansion model pay off for Capcom? (more than launching one anual MH?)
I feel like that would be hard to do without seeing at least one MHW sequel.
OP
OP
Biggest opening for PlayStation VR titles
Famitsu Sales: Week 17, 2018 (Apr 23 - Apr 29)
08./00. [PS4] Bravo Team |PlayStation VR| # <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2018.04.26} (¥4.900) - 13.244 / NEW <40-60%>
___
Famitsu Sales: Week 7, 2019 (Feb 11 - Feb 17)
02./00. [PS4] Catherine: Full Body # <ADV> (Atlus) {2019.02.14} (¥7.980) - 53.606 / NEW <60-80%>
14./00. [PSV] Catherine: Full Body # <ADV> (Atlus) {2019.02.14} (¥7.980) - 7.980 / NEW <60-80%>
Famitsu Sales: Week 17, 2018 (Apr 23 - Apr 29)
08./00. [PS4] Bravo Team |PlayStation VR| # <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2018.04.26} (¥4.900) - 13.244 / NEW <40-60%>
___
Famitsu Sales: Week 7, 2019 (Feb 11 - Feb 17)
02./00. [PS4] Catherine: Full Body # <ADV> (Atlus) {2019.02.14} (¥7.980) - 53.606 / NEW <60-80%>
14./00. [PSV] Catherine: Full Body # <ADV> (Atlus) {2019.02.14} (¥7.980) - 7.980 / NEW <60-80%>
Getting ready for the next quarter, here are the top 5 shares between the 2 (3ds/NSW) so far.
Top 5
1180k (3DS 2013)
1097k (3DS 2012)
1035k (NSW 2019)
938k (3DS 2011)
767k (NSW 2017)
Giving the fact that Q3 is much stronger than Q2 and the fact that hardware will be better due to more shipments (hopefully) NSW should make it to the top. This quarter NSW will be between 940k-1000k so it would of placed 4th just underneath NSW lite launch quarter.
Top 5
1180k (3DS 2013)
1097k (3DS 2012)
1035k (NSW 2019)
938k (3DS 2011)
767k (NSW 2017)
Giving the fact that Q3 is much stronger than Q2 and the fact that hardware will be better due to more shipments (hopefully) NSW should make it to the top. This quarter NSW will be between 940k-1000k so it would of placed 4th just underneath NSW lite launch quarter.
COMG! preorders chart, Week 26 2020:
Each point represent one preorder at this retailer. It is a relatively small retailer located in one region so be careful when you extrapolate, especially regarding Otaku games (overrepresented) and family games (underrepresented).
1. Sword Art Online Alicization Special Edition - 100 pts (+12 pt)
2. Mobile Suit Gundam EXTREME VS Premium Sound Edition – 45 pts (+4 pts)
3. Sword Art Online Alicization - 45 pts (+6 pts)
4. Ghost of Tsushima – 40 pts (+9 pts)
5. Mobile Suit Gundam EXTREME VS - 26 pts (+3 pt)
6. eBaseball Pro 2020 (NSW) – 22 pts (+7 pts)
7. Paper Mario and the Origami King - 20 pts (+6 pts)
8. eBaseball Pro 2020 (PS4) – 19 pts (+4 pt)
9. Mobile Suit Gundam EXTREME VS Collector's Edition - 13 pts (+1 pt)
10. VVtunia - 13 pts (+0 pt)
11. The Legend of Heroes Hajimari no Kiseki - 10 pts (+0 pt)
12. Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles (NSW) – 8 pts (+1 pt)
13. Watch Dogs Legion - 8 pts (+0 pt)
14. Cyberpunk 2077 – 8 pts (+0 pt)
15. The Legend of Heroes So no Kiseki - 7 pts (+2 pts)
16. VVtunia Special Edition - 7 pts (+2 pts)
17. Fairy Tail (NSW) – 7 pts (+0 pt)
18. Fairy Tail Guild Box (NSW) – 6 pts (+0 pt)
19. Catherine Full Body – 5 pts (+1 pt)
20. Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles (PS4) – 5 pts (+0 pt)
Upcoming line-up:
Week 27: Catherine Full Body
Week 28: Jikkyou, SAO
Week 29: Ghost of Tsushima, Paper Mario
Week 30:
Week 31: Gundam, Fairy Tale
Each point represent one preorder at this retailer. It is a relatively small retailer located in one region so be careful when you extrapolate, especially regarding Otaku games (overrepresented) and family games (underrepresented).
1. Sword Art Online Alicization Special Edition - 100 pts (+12 pt)
2. Mobile Suit Gundam EXTREME VS Premium Sound Edition – 45 pts (+4 pts)
3. Sword Art Online Alicization - 45 pts (+6 pts)
4. Ghost of Tsushima – 40 pts (+9 pts)
5. Mobile Suit Gundam EXTREME VS - 26 pts (+3 pt)
6. eBaseball Pro 2020 (NSW) – 22 pts (+7 pts)
7. Paper Mario and the Origami King - 20 pts (+6 pts)
8. eBaseball Pro 2020 (PS4) – 19 pts (+4 pt)
9. Mobile Suit Gundam EXTREME VS Collector's Edition - 13 pts (+1 pt)
10. VVtunia - 13 pts (+0 pt)
11. The Legend of Heroes Hajimari no Kiseki - 10 pts (+0 pt)
12. Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles (NSW) – 8 pts (+1 pt)
13. Watch Dogs Legion - 8 pts (+0 pt)
14. Cyberpunk 2077 – 8 pts (+0 pt)
15. The Legend of Heroes So no Kiseki - 7 pts (+2 pts)
16. VVtunia Special Edition - 7 pts (+2 pts)
17. Fairy Tail (NSW) – 7 pts (+0 pt)
18. Fairy Tail Guild Box (NSW) – 6 pts (+0 pt)
19. Catherine Full Body – 5 pts (+1 pt)
20. Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles (PS4) – 5 pts (+0 pt)
Upcoming line-up:
Week 27: Catherine Full Body
Week 28: Jikkyou, SAO
Week 29: Ghost of Tsushima, Paper Mario
Week 30:
Week 31: Gundam, Fairy Tale
Bro, Samus Returns LIVES in the UK! Funny how BD1 is starting to get difficult to get while Second goes out almost for free
Tsutaya Ranking: Week 26, 2020 (22 Jun - 28 Jun)
01./02. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons <ETC> (Nintendo) {2020.03.20} (¥5.980)
02./01. [PS4] The Last of Us Part II <ADV> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2020.06.19} (¥6.900)
03./03. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics <TBL> (Nintendo) {2020.06.05} (¥3.980)
04./04. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure <HOB> (Nintendo) {2019.10.18} (¥7.980)
05./00. [PS4] Remnant: From the Ashes <ACT> (DMM Games) {2020.06.25} (¥4.980)
06./00. [NSW] Brigandine: The Legend of Runersia <SLG> (Happinet) {2020.06.25} (¥7.200)
07./05. [PS4] The Last of Us Remastered [PlayStation Hits] <ADV> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2018.07.26} (¥1.990)
08./09. [NSW] Minecraft <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} (¥3.600)
09./07. [NSW] Splatoon 2 <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.11.22} (¥5.980)
10./10. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980)
11./11. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200)
12./12. [NSW] Pokemon Sword <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2019.11.15} (¥5.980)
13./08. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition <RPG> (Nintendo) {2020.05.29} (¥5.980)
14./15. [NSW] Pokemon Shield <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2019.11.15} (¥5.980)
15./17. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch <HOB> (Nintendo) {2019.12.27} (¥3.480)
16./18. [NSW] Super Mario Party <ETC> (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} (¥5.980)
17./00. [NSW] Shoujo Jigoku no Doku Musume <RPG> (Nippon Ichi Software) {2020.06.25} (¥6.980)
18./16. [PS4] Final Fantasy VII Remake <RPG> (Square Enix) {2020.04.10} (¥8.980)
19./00. [PS4] Shoujo Jigoku no Doku Musume <RPG> (Nippon Ichi Software) {2020.06.25} (¥6.980)
20./22. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V: Premium Online Edition [Reprint] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2019.11.07} (¥3.500)
Top 20
NSW - 14
PS4 - 6
01./02. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons <ETC> (Nintendo) {2020.03.20} (¥5.980)
02./01. [PS4] The Last of Us Part II <ADV> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2020.06.19} (¥6.900)
03./03. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics <TBL> (Nintendo) {2020.06.05} (¥3.980)
04./04. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure <HOB> (Nintendo) {2019.10.18} (¥7.980)
05./00. [PS4] Remnant: From the Ashes <ACT> (DMM Games) {2020.06.25} (¥4.980)
06./00. [NSW] Brigandine: The Legend of Runersia <SLG> (Happinet) {2020.06.25} (¥7.200)
07./05. [PS4] The Last of Us Remastered [PlayStation Hits] <ADV> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2018.07.26} (¥1.990)
08./09. [NSW] Minecraft <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} (¥3.600)
09./07. [NSW] Splatoon 2 <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.11.22} (¥5.980)
10./10. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980)
11./11. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200)
12./12. [NSW] Pokemon Sword <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2019.11.15} (¥5.980)
13./08. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition <RPG> (Nintendo) {2020.05.29} (¥5.980)
14./15. [NSW] Pokemon Shield <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2019.11.15} (¥5.980)
15./17. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch <HOB> (Nintendo) {2019.12.27} (¥3.480)
16./18. [NSW] Super Mario Party <ETC> (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} (¥5.980)
17./00. [NSW] Shoujo Jigoku no Doku Musume <RPG> (Nippon Ichi Software) {2020.06.25} (¥6.980)
18./16. [PS4] Final Fantasy VII Remake <RPG> (Square Enix) {2020.04.10} (¥8.980)
19./00. [PS4] Shoujo Jigoku no Doku Musume <RPG> (Nippon Ichi Software) {2020.06.25} (¥6.980)
20./22. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V: Premium Online Edition [Reprint] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2019.11.07} (¥3.500)
Top 20
NSW - 14
PS4 - 6
The COMG chart is pretty low now.
Smash lost its second longest streak last week after 28 weeks in the top 20.
And Minecraft is now also on the verge of dropping out with its lowest weekly points ever.
Smash lost its second longest streak last week after 28 weeks in the top 20.
And Minecraft is now also on the verge of dropping out with its lowest weekly points ever.
I said it last week and I'll say it again. Smash has reached its threshold in Japan and it will struggle to make the top 30 by the end of the year. Pokemon Sword and Shield will easily outsell in Japan (it already has)
Thank you for creating a new meme for this Christmas. We needed a new one since the "online killed Splatoon 2" is getting old.
Smash sales go up with new fighters. Release 2 new Fire Emblem fighters and it will gain momentum again.
It's also going to be a big seller during the holidays. Anyway the game is on its way to 5 million units in Japan so it's hardly an issue as it stands.
Smash is in its 2nd year and selling above 5k weekly, Pokémon is doing similar if not slightly less than smash from about 2 months ago. Pokémon just had 1 of its 2 dlc released and jumped ahead of smash so what your saying is very premature.
Lastly lol to making it out of top 30. This part of your post kinda shows your not up to speed with how this works :P
Yep that's it, from the incoming >10M new Switch hardware that will be sold in the coming years there will be next to no sales weekly for Smash Bros on from now on, it's done considering how high of a threshold 1k/week is.
Smash already has Fire Emblem characters, and I don't think the franchise is big enough in Japan to create any significant pull. But you're right, it should make 5 million units easily when it's all said and done, providing huge growth for the franchise and setting up the next game to be a monster in Japan.
Launch aligned, Smash is significantly lower than Sword and Shield (which managed to outsell it in 2 quarters) and it's likely in its tail-end (support wise) as well. Whereas, Pokemon just launched its first DLC and the second is yet to come, not to mention it has its second holiday period to get through. There is also the possibility of a 3rd and 4th DLC. If Smash is already behind Sword and Shield during its tail-end of support, how do you expect it to match Pokemon which has only just begun its post launch support?
Haha, I doubt it would be that bad. The signs are there though. Smash has been slowly declining over the past month and I'm not sure what could prop it up, again.
Smash Ultimate will still get DLCs when Pokémon gets a new game by Game Freak.
[PS4] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 : 75.505 / 208.867
[PSV] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 : 66.661 / 183.022
[PS3] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 : 46.314 / 100.626
[PS4] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2018 : 133.555 / 255.850
[PSV] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2018 : 58.211 / 119.754
[SWI] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball : 75.505 / 225.614
[PS4] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 : ? / ?
[NSW] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 : ? / ?
500k+ in sight ?
[PSV] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 : 66.661 / 183.022
[PS3] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 : 46.314 / 100.626
[PS4] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2018 : 133.555 / 255.850
[PSV] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2018 : 58.211 / 119.754
[SWI] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball : 75.505 / 225.614
[PS4] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 : ? / ?
[NSW] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 : ? / ?
500k+ in sight ?
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Are they skipping Switch after the game proved successful while Vita is in its dying breath?
pokemon starts doing better than smash for a couple weeks (during a considerable dlc launch no less), and people are already claiming the battle is over. lets not forget that smash, despite being a year older, was outselling pokemon on a weekly basis for most of the past few months.
it might be tough with digital included as iirc pokemon had a big leg up there, but i have absolutely zero doubt that smash will end up ahead at retail
it might be tough with digital included as iirc pokemon had a big leg up there, but i have absolutely zero doubt that smash will end up ahead at retail
I thought a Switch version has been announced (?) Or am I mixing up between games
Smash will easily take it at total sales too, Pokémon currently has lower than 100k advantage with digital.
Smash has gone through its biggest "drought" period since launch. I think that might explain part of the decline. However...
Yup, I agree. Pokémon SwSh will see some spikes as DLC releases and probably next Christmas as well, but next year it'll probably be replaced by the next game in the series, whereas Smash will keep selling throughout the entire generation. I think it's not unreasonable to assume that it'll end up overtaking SwSh in the long run.
Your logic doesn't make sense, pokemon is the fastest selling game on the NSW excluding AC doesn't mean it'll be higher. Launch align means nothing, Mario kart / Splatoon launch align you expect Pokémon would destroy that but it matters at the end of each games life (legs included).
Pokémon is ahead but that's Ltd launch align, Pokémon fell behind smash in the weekly charts when smash was a year older game. You picked a weird time to think Pokémon sales are strong because it had its 1st of 2 major dlc updates. Data suggest smash legs are much better, retail pokemon won't surpass smash and smash will leg out further lifetime. Pokémon won't sell what smash is selling launch align in its 2nd year.
That doesn't even matter, the fact that smash was outselling Pokémon weekly this year just intill 2 weeks should paint a picture on who's legs are better :)
This logic is ignored I guess lol
Oups my copy/past went wrong :p
500k would have been very out of the question without a Switch SKU.
That's a high position for Remnant: From the Ashes. Reminds me of Ark: Survival Evolved that was also pretty big in Japan for some reason (130k+ LTD).
NSW - 12
PS4 - 8
Total: 238 (-153 WoW)
MK8D will also outsell Sword/Shield and even Splatoon 2 might do it (to be sure, chances are slim right now).
Yodobashi Camera is having another lottery today and tomorrow. Winners can buy from Wednesday (July 1st). This seems the last shipment for this quarter.
www.famitsu.com
Now I wonder what Yodobashi will do from next week. Continue with lotteries, or starting to sell it normally? Originally lotteries were supposed to last until June.
ヨドバシドットコムでSwitch各種本体＆『リングフィット』の抽選販売がスタート。Switch Lite各色もあり | ゲーム・エンタメ最新情報のファミ通.com
ヨドバシ・ドット・コムにて、ニンテンドースイッチ本体、『リングフィット アドベンチャー』などの抽選販売受付が始まった。抽選の受付期間は、2020年6月29日（月）11時00分～6月30日（火）10時59分。
www.famitsu.com
Now I wonder what Yodobashi will do from next week. Continue with lotteries, or starting to sell it normally? Originally lotteries were supposed to last until June.
MK8D will outsell it (unless a Mk9 comes out) as for splatoon2 that depends all on it. It has the potential to do over 5mil but legs will have to continue being fantastic for another year to 2 years to settle above that. A Splatoon spin off could give it a boost or hardware bundle
Yodobashi Camera is having another lottery today and tomorrow. Winners can buy from Wednesday (July 1st). This seems the last shipment for this quarter.
ヨドバシドットコムでSwitch各種本体＆『リングフィット』の抽選販売がスタート。Switch Lite各色もあり | ゲーム・エンタメ最新情報のファミ通.com
ヨドバシ・ドット・コムにて、ニンテンドースイッチ本体、『リングフィット アドベンチャー』などの抽選販売受付が始まった。抽選の受付期間は、2020年6月29日（月）11時00分～6月30日（火）10時59分。
Now I wonder what Yodobashi will do from next week. Continue with lotteries, or starting to sell it normally? Originally lotteries were supposed to last until June.
I was gonna ask this next week but with everything Staying demand high shouldn't lotteries last for quite awhile longer? It's not like we got 200k-250k weeks yet :P
JPPY2016 did it. Back then, both the PS4 and Vita were healthy systems. Now PS4 has become a bit old, but games like The Last of Us show that players still show up to buy software that appeals to them. For the Switch, JPPY(2019) had incredible legs. It remains to be seen how many of those players are willing to pick up a second game, kind of a similar situation to FIFA on Nintendo systems in Europe. But I think this proper main series release will do well on both systems. The game is ranking high on Amazon, and starting to get some traction in other pre-order places as well. 500k is a lot, it's not a guarantee, but likely to happen. I'd say 400k lifetime is a lock, 500k a real possibility.
Over 4.00m for sure, hard to guess how high it went when it was 30% off on the eShop.
Yup a spinoff and the return of bundles would be great for its momentum. They should keep doing the free demo + temporary eShop price cut combo too.
Maybe even a mobile game or a big project outside of gaming.
As of March 31st, 2020 :
- Pokémon Sword / Shield : 4.520.000
- Super Smash Bros. Ultimate : 4.430.000
- Splatoon 2 : 3.890.000
- Animal Crossing: New Horizons : 3.840.000
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe : 3.500.000
Splatoon 2 was 3.890.000 shipped by the end of March. From week 14 to week 25 it sold already over 100k at retail according to Famitsu. So the game is definitively over 4M by now, but not officially.
MK8 will outsell both Smash and Pokemon. However, that won't happen for another 2 years. And Splatoon has absolutely no chance of outselling Sword and Shield. I'm not even sure what you even brought it up.
