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Media Create Sales: Week 26, 2018 (Jun 25 - Jul 01)

Principate

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
ILikeFeet said:
I can't predict the future, but I do think the change in audience expectations is (slowly) starting to affect pokemon. if it wasn't for Pokemon Go, then SM would have been a good bit lower than where it is.

with kids being the leading audience, one look at what kids are playing and we can see why Pokemon may have a problem in the future if Game Freak doesn't adapt. a thread by Mat Piscatella on twitter goes into what GF could start leaning towards. while a lot Pokemon's appeal is online trading and battling, I do not believe it's the sole major reason and can stand from improving elements of it's core gameplay loop that doesn't involve battling and trading in a way that can greatly expand the audience
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This contradicts the proposed arguement because the proposed argument makes minimal sense in the first place. The production values of the story has almost nothing to do with Pokemon not selling more, story focused single player AAA games outside of few outliers are on the decline that's why there's the current push to games as a service. Pokemon doesn't have to increase it's budget/production values or anything of the like that to become a games as a service. In fact they could gut the story section entirely like CoD did and replace with a service based gameplay loop, which would likely result in complaints from those wanting Pokemon to be more like modern AAA single player games.

A lot of these arguments seem to confuse personal preference with profitable business moves.
 

Fafalada

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,066
Principate said:
Pokemon doesn't have to increase it's budget/production values or anything of the like that to become a games as a service.
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Not in a literal sense perhaps - but making it into games as a service would lead to higher development costs and thus an increase in budget regardless (unless they cut costs elsewhere).
 
Principate

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
Fafalada said:
Not in a literal sense perhaps - but making it into games as a service would lead to higher development costs and thus an increase in budget regardless (unless they cut costs elsewhere).
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Not inherently no. There's no tangible reason why a pokemon in a games as a service model would cost more than it currently does. It could very well cost less. It would depend entirely on what the model actually was.
 
ILikeFeet

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
Principate said:
This contradicts the proposed arguement because the proposed argument makes minimal sense in the first place. The production values of the story has almost nothing to do with Pokemon not selling more, story focused single player AAA games outside of few outliers are on the decline that's why there's the current push to games as a service. Pokemon doesn't have to increase it's budget/production values or anything of the like that to become a games as a service. In fact they could gut the story section entirely like CoD did and replace with a service based gameplay loop, which would likely result in complaints from those wanting Pokemon to be more like modern AAA single player games.

A lot of these arguments seem to confuse personal preference with profitable business moves.
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Click to shrink...
I think you missed my argument then. I said nothing about the story mode. rather, my argument has more to do with the "promise of unlimited gameplay". it's not the open world, it's the idea of flexibility in how people play. it just so happens that open world does more to allow that flexibility. I'm against Pokemon going open world (for now), but expanding the breadth of exploration would do more to increase user base as it would move Pokemon more towards the the market trends.
 
Principate

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
Fafalada said:
Yes, an 'equivalent' service game costs more to produce(it can be significantly more depending on how you approach it) than non-service one. As mentioned - unless you cut costs somewhere else (in which case it's not really an equivalent game anymore).
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The flaw in your arguement is what on earth is an equivalent games as a service. That's an erroneous term. If your talking budget wise then it would n't cost more it would cost equal. If your talking development time wise how are quantifying the costs? More man power or whatever. Games as a service is far too nebulous a term for you to use the way your doing so. You'd have to be more specific.
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Week 28, 2018 (Jul 9 - Jul 15)

new releases

{2018.07.10}
[PS4] Dream Match Tennis VR |PlayStation VR| _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <SPT> (Bimboosoft) (¥1.389)

{2018.07.12}
[NSW] Shining Resonance Refrain <RPG> (Sega) (¥5.990)
[NSW] Shining Resonance Refrain (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Sega) (¥5.990)
[NSW] SteamWorld Heist: Ultimate Edition _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <SLG> (Flyhigh Works) (¥1.851)
[NSW] The Trail: Frontier Challenge _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ADV> (Kongregate) (¥1.481)
[NSW] Okuriinu _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (Mebius) (¥916)
[NSW] Radio Hammer Station _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (Arc System Works) (¥740)
[NSW] Mosaic Art Fill-a-Pix Deluxe _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <PZL> (Rainy Frog) (¥740)
[NSW] Super Destronaut DX _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <STG> (Ratalaika Games) (¥462)
[NSW] ACA NeoGeo: The Super Spy _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (Hamster) (¥762)
[PS4] Mary Skelter: Nightmares 2 # <RPG> (Compile Heart) (¥7.200)
[PS4] Mary Skelter: Nightmares 2 (Limited Edition) <RPG> (Compile Heart) (¥9.700)
[PS4] Mary Skelter: Nightmares 2 (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Compile Heart) (¥6.400)

{2018.07.13}
[NSW] Splatoon 2 (3)(Nintendo Switch Splatoon 2 Set + Nintendo Switch Online 3 Months Individual Membership) <BUN> (Nintendo) (¥35.960)
[NSW] Octopath Traveler <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥6.800)
[NSW] Octopath Traveler (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥6.800)
[NSW] Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker <ADV> (Nintendo) (¥3.980)
[NSW] Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Nintendo) (¥3.980)
[3DS] Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker <ADV> (Nintendo) (¥3.980)
[3DS] Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Nintendo) (¥3.980)
__

YSO predictions

01. [NSW] Octopath Traveler < 90k (average 80k) [week 1]
02. [NSW] Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker < 35k (average 30k) [week 1]
03. [NSW] Mario Tennis Aces < 25k (average 20k) [week 4]
03. [NSW] Splatoon 2 < 25k (average 20k) [week 52]
 
OfficerRaichu15

OfficerRaichu15

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,315
Nashville
Octopath not hitting 100k according to them? Darn

Hopefully it over performs

That Toad performance would actually give it a higher first week then the Wii U version lol
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Captain Toad Switch:3DS first week ratio will be somewhere between 2:1 and 3:1.
 
OfficerRaichu15

OfficerRaichu15

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,315
Nashville
To be honest it's debut will likely be far greater than Bravely Defaults that it likely won't be that noteworthy. Octopath will probably have an initial shipment almost as high as Bravely Default's LTD worldwide like Chris said lol.
 
Sammy Samusu

Sammy Samusu

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,746
Beyonce's Womb
Principate said:
Why? If they are selling as consistently well as they've always done and are routinely amongst the top sellers of any system their on what are the justifications business wise for these higher production values. Unless your arguing pokemon would sell significantly more if it cost he same to produce as a modern AAA game it's quite simply a waste of money.
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A waste of my money.

How about we think about ourselves first? The big corporations are already making enough money.

From now on we will be paying $60 for Pokemon games and I want them to look and play like a full priced multi million seller game.

It's not a hard concept to understand.
 
Funny Face

Funny Face

Member
Dec 5, 2017
180
*Guaraná said:
The way I see it, worldwide, Octopath will likely surpass Bravely Defaults sales numbers by a good margin.
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I've been following Octopath on a few Amazon stores since before Mario Tennis Aces came out. In the past three plus weeks, It's consistently been top 15 in the U.S., top 5 in France, top 12 in Japan, and doing quite well in a number of other countries. It's currently sold out on Amazon Canada.

I said a few weeks ago that I felt it would get a first shipment of over 1,000,000 copies. Looking good.

As for YSO, I think it will out-perform. Still feeling that it will launch in the range of 110,000. A little better than the debut of ARMS.
 
Noobie

Noobie

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
755
Continuing with the comparison of Detroit with Demon Souls, unfprtunately the 2009 media create threads only used to provide the numbers for top 10. So we don;t have numbers for Demon's Souls after 3 weeks when it hit > 10 position on the media create chart.

But One thing is clear that Detroit is performing a bit like Demon Soul...

[Week 6, 2009] [PS3] Demon's Souls (SCE) 40,000 / NEW
[Week 7, 2009] [PS3] Demon's Souls (SCE) 22,000 / 62,000
[Week 8, 2009] [PS3] Demon's Souls (SCE) 15,000 / 78,000

[Week 21, 2018] [PS4] DETROIT: BECOME HUMAN (Sony Interactive Entertainment) - 39.548 / NEW
[Week 22, 2018] [PS4] DETROIT: BECOME HUMAN (Sony Interactive Entertainment) - 16.932 / 56.480
[Week 23, 2018] [PS4] DETROIT: BECOME HUMAN (Sony Interactive Entertainment) - 10.935 / 67.415
[Week 24, 2018] [PS4] DETROIT: BECOME HUMAN (Sony Interactive Entertainment) - 7.043 / 74.458
[Week 25, 2018] [PS4] DETROIT: BECOME HUMAN (Sony Interactive Entertainment) - 4.706 / 79.164
[Week 26, 2018] [PS4] DETROIT: BECOME HUMAN (Sony Interactive Entertainment) - 4.290 / 83.454
 

Fafalada

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,066
Principate said:
The flaw in your arguement is what on earth is an equivalent games as a service.
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I agree it's nonsensical without a context - but we had a specific context - take a core game that isn't GaaS and bring it across.
As for the rest - devtime, manpower etc. are all directly reflected on the eventual $ spend, and building&providing the sw&hw infrastructure necessary for a modern GaaS costs more (considerably so) than not having one.
Obviously - this is as measured until whatever is considered "launch date" - GaaS operating costs will further increase the cost differential afterrwards, but I omitted that from initial comparison.
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
hiska-kun said:
First Day Sell-through {2018.07.05}

[PS4] [PSV] Zanki Zero <RPG> (Spike Chunsoft) (¥7.200) - 40%, a demo could've helped for more sales
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That's what Bandai thought too with Gundam Breaker.

Zanki Zero doesn't seem to have gathered a lot of attention over weekend either despited being promoted as made from the creators of Danganronpa.
 
DarkDetective

DarkDetective

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,906
The Netherlands
Chris1964 said:
YSO predictions

01. [NSW] Octopath Traveler < 90k (average 80k) [week 1]
02. [NSW] Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker < 35k (average 30k) [week 1]
03. [NSW] Mario Tennis Aces < 25k (average 20k) [week 4]
03. [NSW] Splatoon 2 < 25k (average 20k) [week 52]
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My personal expectations for Octopath Traveler are higher. YSO have had some weak predictions in the last couple of months tho, so there's still hope.

For Captain Toad, I expect around the same for Switch, plus ~10k on 3DS.
 
Ryng™

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
Splatoon at 20-25K tho? They expect great Switch boost then.

About Octopath, eeeeeeeeeh... i always thought 100K was already optimist, but some people had very good expectation so i was at least hoping for that... but yeah, 80/90K is what i personally expect right now, happy if it overperform that at retail, or has some nice digital sales.
 
Funny Face

Funny Face

Member
Dec 5, 2017
180
YSO is generally pretty great with their predictions, but they have some stinkers too. A recent one is DK:TF: they predicted 45,000, and it sold over 88,000.

And not that this stuff means all that much, but Octopath, Captain Toad, and Taiko are all moving up the amazon.jp charts (well, Octopath can't move up anymore since it's #1). More stuff that doesn't mean much: Octopath will end up with more preorders than Mario Tennis Aces at COMG, while Taiko looks like it has a chance to end up with the most out of the three.
 
silpheed-mcd

silpheed-mcd

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,384
ComG! Week Sales, 2018 (Jul 02 - Jul 08)

Df4MdK-V4AA3oWH.jpg



01/02 [NSW] Minecraft - 45 pt (-3 pt)
02/01 [NSW] Mario Tennis Ace - 33 pt (-33 pt)
03/ N [PS4] Zanki Zero - 26 pt
04/ N [PSV] Zanki Zero - 19 pt
05/04 [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 18 pt (=)
06/13 [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 11 pt (+6 pt)
07/09 [PS4] Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star Link - 8 pt (+1 pt)
08/03 [PS4] The Crew 2 - 6 pt (-16 pt)
09/10 [NSW] Kirby Star Allies - 6 pt (=)
10/ N [PS4] Far Cry 3 Classic Edition - 5 pt
11/20 [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 5 pt (+2 pt)
12/15 [3DS] Pokemon Ultra Moon - 5 pt (+1 pt)
13/ R. [PS4] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2018 - 4 pt
14/12 [PS4] New Gundam Breaker (Build G Sound Edition) - 4 pt (-1 pt)
15/ R. [NSW] Sumikko Gurashi: Sumikko Park e Youkoso - 4 pt
16/ R. [PSV] Grisaia no Kajitsu: Side Episode - 3 pt
17/ R. [PS4] Utawarerumono: Chiriyukusha e no Komoriuta (normal version) - 3 pt
18/ R. [PS4] Persona 5 (normal version) - 3 pt
19/08 [PS4] Detroit: Become Human (Normal Version) - 3 pt (-4 pt)
20/ R. [PS4] Horizon Zero Dawn Complete Edition - 3 pt



PS4: 10
NSW: 7
PSV: 2
3DS: 1



ComG! Week Sales, 2018 (Jun 25 - Jul 01)
https://www.resetera.com/threads/me...2018-jun-18-jun-24.51842/page-10#post-9927546
 

Adventureracing

The Fallen
Nov 7, 2017
8,035
Slightly underhwelming opening of it pans out. That's a decent opening for
captain toad though. Judging by the splatoon 2 prediction they're expecting a decent boost to switch HW but nothing too big.
 
Eolz

Eolz

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
7,601
FR
So the Bamco panel's only announcement was Tokyo Ghoul. Nothing else, despite them teasing several ones...
 
casiopao

casiopao

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
5,044
Lets see if YSO failed again here. I feel Octo selling 100k is a guarantee here. But let see.

Capitan Toad selling more than Wii U is another shocker for me lol.
 
skullwaker

skullwaker

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,267
casiopao said:
Lets see if YSO failed again here. I feel Octo selling 100k is a guarantee here. But let see.

Capitan Toad selling more than Wii U is another shocker for me lol.
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Wow you're not wrong. I looked it up and Captain Toad sold 28k first week on Wii U back in 2014. YSO predicting 30k, which doesn't even account for the 3DS version, is pretty great.

But yeah I'm hoping for at least 100k for Octopath.
 
Vena

Vena

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,441
And people wonder why Nintendo is porting these games.
 
casiopao

casiopao

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
5,044
skullwaker said:
Wow you're not wrong. I looked it up and Captain Toad sold 28k first week on Wii U back in 2014. YSO predicting 30k, which doesn't even account for the 3DS version, is pretty great.

But yeah I'm hoping for at least 100k for Octopath.
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And i think Capitan had chance of becoming another evergreen lol. This is going to be fun to follow that little leg keep staying on the chart lol.
 
foxuzamaki

foxuzamaki

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,563
*Guaraná said:
I really hope SE can reach their personal goals with this game so we can see more of these kind of project in the future
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I'm one of the people who stan for OPT's art style and love the way it looks but i do hope square has more modern looking mid tier games in the vein of xenoblade or nier in the switch pipeline, games that dont have to be high budget but dont have to look as cheap as a altier game
 
silpheed-mcd

silpheed-mcd

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,384
TSUTAYA Ranking Sales, 2018 (Jul 02 - Jul 08)


02/ N. [PS4] Zanki Zero
04/ N [PSV] Zanki Zero
08/07 [PS4] Winning Eleven 2018
12/11 [PS4] Detroit: Become Human

06r4Dt0.jpg



PS4: 10
NSW: 9
PSV: 1
 

JJConrad

Member
Nov 3, 2017
671
casiopao said:
Lets see if YSO failed again here. I feel Octo selling 100k is a guarantee here. But let see.

Capitan Toad selling more than Wii U is another shocker for me lol.
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This one smells like another fail. You'd think they'd at least predicted within the range of the Bravely games. Default launched at 145k and Second at 97k.
 
Limabean01

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,664
WA, australia
I would be extremely shocked if octopath opened with >100k FW. I just don't see this game doing as well as people think it will, if only because of how it looks (don't get me wrong - I love how it looks, I just think the general public will dismiss it because of pixel art).

I think it's very optimistic to think this game will do >200k Ltd but that's just me.
 
silpheed-mcd

silpheed-mcd

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,384
Ok girls and guys, i heard you :p

OCTOPATH TRAVELER PREDICTIONS: FIRST WEEK SALES (closed on July 12)

DhOuCT2UYAAjQM_.jpg




Please, write like this:

Your name: sales

THX :)


<70k: 01
70k/79k: 05
80k/89k: 08
90k/99k: 11
100k/109k: 17
110k/119k: 13
120k/129k: 09
130k/139k: 01
<140k: 03
The Sammy's World: 02


_Dog: 75k
会津Aizuの復讐: 123.456
Almasy: 117k
Almaz_Hiro: 121k
Andri: 88k
Arynio: 86k
BishopLamont: 148.888
bxsonic: 93K
casiopao: 124k
ccc: 113k
Cinemikel: 8:p
Dardan Sandiego: 117.999
DarkDetective: 121.212
DaSorcerer7: 93k
DecoReturns: 108K
DeuceGamer: 102k
DrWong: 101K
Edigar: 120k
ggx2ac: 94.3k
Grads: 105k
Guaraná: 92k
Herb Alpert: 102.436
ILikeFeet: 88.888
James: 135K
jamesRainbowBoy: 125.000
Jamiem: 181.364
Jim_Cacher: 111k
Joseki: 109k
KaiPow: 87k
Kenzodielocke: 127.281
krlitros87: 118k
KtSlime: 122k
KuwabaraTheMan: 124k
Lichtsang: 102.000
Limabean01: 80k
LordKano: 99k
MANUELF: 115k
MegaXZero: 92k
Menx64: 150k
Mr Swine: 107k
Myriotes: 100,888
MysticGon: 79K
Nathan.exe: 90.000
Nemesis162: 105k
NiteJohn: 101k
Nocturnal: 113K
olobolger: 118.888
Pablo Mesa: 118K
Pooroomoo: 83.700
Radishhead: 78k
RailWays: 93k
Ryng_Tolu: 89.000
Sammysback: 88.888.888
schuelma: 97k
Shepherd: 103k
Sinonobu : 88k
Skullwaker: 98k
Slarvax: 111k
The Horror the Horror: 116k
Thoraxes: 74k
TwoDelay: 95k
umbrianpauly: 103K
Umibozu: 70k
unfashionable: 123.019 (rectified: 238k)
Welfare: 102k
WestEgg: 108k
Yep: 101.681
zakatana: 113.210
Zarckoh: 109k
Zedark: 118k
 
Last edited:
skullwaker

skullwaker

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,267
casiopao said:
And i think Capitan had chance of becoming another evergreen lol. This is going to be fun to follow that little leg keep staying on the chart lol.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Oh, absolutely. On the Wii U Captain Toad went on to sell over 150k, which is quite incredible considering its modest debut. I think it could once again go on to sell over 100k on Switch, perhaps even more.

silpheed-mcd said:
Ok girls and guys, i heard you :p

OCTOPATH TRAVELER PREDICTIONS: FIRST WEEK SALES (closed on July 12)

DhOuCT2UYAAjQM_.jpg




Please, write like this:

Your name: sales

THX :)
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Skullwaker: 98k
 
casiopao

casiopao

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
5,044
Sammy Samusu said:
Ideally nobody should care about how many copies OT sells at launch.

It will have legs and word of mouth will carry it. That happens a lot on Switch.
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The lack of dlc or season pass is going to be its leg killer hard. The moment people finish the game, the second hand market is going to receive many of the game copies.

Limabean01 said:
I would be extremely shocked if octopath opened with >100k FW. I just don't see this game doing as well as people think it will, if only because of how it looks (don't get me wrong - I love how it looks, I just think the general public will dismiss it because of pixel art).

I think it's very optimistic to think this game will do >200k Ltd but that's just me.
Click to expand...
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Gameplay loop being great is more important jp gamers. If the gameplay loop is great, Octopath will sell great there.

casiopao: 124k
 
hibikase

hibikase

User requested ban
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
6,820
I'm gonna be real sad if Octopath doesn't do over 100k in Japan. Hell it deserves at least twice that amount.
 
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