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ZSaberLink

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,677
Third party titles that have sold over 100K on Switch in retail:
1. Minecraft: Nintendo Switch Edition - 66.050 / 822.890 - Microsoft 12/05/2017
2. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'N' Fun! - 66.908 / 344.161 - Bandai Namco 19/07/2018
3. Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate - 94.973 / 282.338 - Capcom 25/08/2017
4. Dragon Quest Builders 2 - 127.404 / 269.130 - Square Enix 20/12/2018
5. Octopath Traveler 109.579 / 193.780 - Square Enix 13/07/2018
6. Yo-kai Watch 4 150.721 / 191.097 - Level 5 20/06/2019
7. Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 for Nintendo Switch 23.011 / 181.090 - Bandai Namco 06/09/2017
8. Super Bomberman R 39.609 / 179.605 Konami - 03/03/2017
9. Super Dragon Ball Heroes: World Mission 70.990 / 123.963 - Bandai Namco 04/04/2019
10. FIFA 18 12.896 / 122.998 Electronic Arts - 29/09/2017
11. Pro Baseball Famista Evolution 36.550 / 110.954 - Bandai Namco 02/08/2018
12. The Snack World: TreJarers Gold 36.757 / 109.955 - Level 5 12/04/2018

Now let's analyze these third parties and see what they're bringing to Switch and potential.
- Square Enix is clearly continuing to support the Switch with DQXIS and Mana remake and continues to be a highlight of JP 3rd party Switch support.
- Capcom will only port games to Switch, Mega Man 11 didn't sell well, and Ace Attorney is MIA.
- Konami barely makes console games anymore, but will likely have another title join this list with Jikyou.
- Bandai Namco has had clear successes with the platform, especially with Dragon Ball, but weirdly refuses to fully support the platform, continuing to skip releases and port them later (lot of these non-Switch titles haven't sold that well either to even justify a late port).
- Sega - releases Sonic games and the ill-fated VC4. Mario & Sonic will probably enter this list and Atlus games take forever.
- Microsoft's Minecraft continues to do well, but other than Minecraft Dungeons, we can't expect much else to hit Switch from them.
- Koei Tecmo - continues to support the Switch with nearly everything, but just nothing has broken out.
- Level 5 - They're clearly capable of still making some of the better selling titles out there, but their developmental pipeline seems to be in shambles
- EA - Has backed off of FIFA with FIFA 20 being legacy.

So where does that leave the Switch in terms of known upcoming 3rd party titles that could maybe get to this sales level or above?
Marvelous - RF4S, RF5, DxM?, Harvest Moon remake?
Square Enix - DQXIS, Trials of Mana remake
Sega - Mario & Sonic 2020, SMTV (whenever that is)
.... I think that's it?
 

Fularu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,609
While they're at it, they should cancel their next Resident Evil, DMC, Street Fighter, and any other franchise as well to work on Monster Hunter World 2.
What does that have anything to do with what I said?

It's thoroughly obvious that the Switch is just an "old releases dump", usually vastly overpriced, as far as Capcom seems concerned.

As for SF it may as well as have been canned since SFV wouldn'T have happened as it did without Sony.
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
This will be the most interesting thing for the next couple of weeks. 60k as a one-off bump is not good, but if the sales stay above 50k, then we would be looking at a strong new sales level. If sales slump to at or below last year's level again, that would be disappointing.

It really is though?
I mean Switch sales this year have been pretty strong withouth anything special, if sales go back to last years numbers, i think that would be ok.
 

cw_sasuke

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,401
I don't think that Capcom.should or will bring MHW to Switch - but for the sake of this argument.....The Witcher 3, Skyrim, Diablo 3 etc. all sold more than MHW and still are getting Switch releases - with so far more than satisfying results in terms of the commercial performance.
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Famitsu Sales: Week 26, 2019 (Jun 24 - Jun 30)

01./00. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.06.28} (¥5.980) - 196.153 / NEW <40-60%>
02./00. [NSW] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball <SPT> (Konami) {2019.06.27} (¥6.980) - 75.505 / NEW <60-80%>
03./01. [NSW] Yo-kai Watch 4: We Are Looking Up at the Same Sky <RPG> (Level 5) {2019.06.20} (¥5.980) - 40.376 / 191.097 <60-80%> (-73%)
04./00. [PS4] Samurai Shodown <FTG> (SNK) {2019.06.27} (¥7.200) - 16.662 / NEW <60-80%>
05./04. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 10.161 / 3.140.500 <80-100%> (+22%)
06./00. [PS4] Kono Subarashii Sekai ni Syukufuku wo! Kibou no Meikyuu to Tsudoishi Boukenshatachi # <ADV> (Entergram) {2019.06.27} (¥7.980) - 8.856 / NEW <80-100%>
07./03. [NSW] Doraemon: Story of Seasons <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.06.13} (¥6.100) - 8.749 / 65.544 <80-100%> (-40%)
08./06. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 8.108 / 2.348.789 <80-100%> (+20%)
09./05. [NSW] Minecraft # <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} (¥3.600) - 7.795 / 830.685 <80-100%> (+10%)
10./08. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2018.11.16} (¥5.980) - 7.781 / 1.565.955 <80-100%> (+65%)
11./02. [PS4] Yakuza 5 <ADV> (Sega) {2019.06.20} (¥3.990) - 6.356 / 27.403 <60-80%> (-70%)
12./09. [NSW] Splatoon 2 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} (¥5.980) - 5.573 / 3.099.211 <80-100%> (+24%)
13./07. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 5.427 / 1.348.389 <80-100%> (+13%)
14./10. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe <New Super Mario Bros. U \ New Super Luigi U> <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.01.11} (¥5.980) - 4.717 / 643.426 <80-100%> (+17%)
15./00. [PS4] Jinrui no Minasama he <ADV> (Nippon Ichi Software) {2019.06.27} (¥6.980) - 4.401 / NEW <60-80%>
16./12. [NSW] Super Mario Party # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} (¥5.980) - 3.800 / 1.049.023 <80-100%> (+41%)
17./11. [PS4] Monster Hunter: World [Best Price] # <ACT> (Capcom) {2018.08.02} (¥4.990) - 3.550 / 64.658 <80-100%> (+7%)
18./00. [PSV] Kono Subarashii Sekai ni Syukufuku wo! Kibou no Meikyuu to Tsudoishi Boukenshatachi # <ADV> (Entergram) {2019.06.27} (¥7.980) - 3.371 / NEW <60-80%>
19./00. [NSW] Jinrui no Minasama he <ADV> (Nippon Ichi Software) {2019.06.27} (¥6.980) - 3.316 / NEW <40-60%>
20./00. [PS4] Horizon Zero Dawn: Complete Edition <Horizon Zero Dawn \ Horizon Zero Dawn: The Frozen Wilds> [PlayStation Hits] <RPG> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2019.06.27} (¥1.990) - 3.181 / NEW <40-60%>
21./00. [NSW] Puyo Puyo Champions <PZL> (Sega) {2019.06.27} (¥1.990) - 2.997 / NEW <20-40%>
22./19. [PS4] Battlefield V <ACT> (Electronic Arts) {2018.11.20} (¥7.800) - 2.797 / 187.655 <80-100%> (+90%)
23./26. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts III # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.01.25} (¥8.800) - 2.743 / 838.927 <80-100%> (+127%)
24./00. [NSW] Clock Zero: Shuuen no Ichibyou - Devote # <ADV> (Idea Factory) {2019.06.27} (¥6.300) - 2.722 / NEW <60-80%>
25./14. [NSW] Yoshi's Crafted World <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.03.29} (¥5.980) - 2.333 / 153.197 <80-100%> (+1%)
26./17. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} (¥5.980) - 1.996 / 1.980.613 <80-100%> (+32%)
27./00. [PS4] Home Sweet Home <ADV> (Mastiff) {2019.06.27} (¥4.500) - 1.760 / NEW <40-60%>
28./20. [NSW] Kirby Star Allies <ACT> (Nintendo) {2018.03.16} (¥5.980) - 1.645 / 732.900 <80-100%> (+14%)
29./18. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.07.19} (¥6.100) - 1.572 / 345.733 <80-100%> (+4%)
30./23. [3DS] Pokemon Ultra Sun / Ultra Moon # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2017.11.17} (¥4.980) - 1.510 / 2.485.870 <80-100%> (+18%)

Top 30

NSW - 19
PS4 - 9
3DS - 1
PSV - 1
 

Deleted member 8593

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
27,176
12./09. [NSW] Splatoon 2 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} (¥5.980) - 5.573 / 3.099.211 <80-100%> (+24%)

VqWEsRE.jpg
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,398
Third party titles that have sold over 100K on Switch in retail:
1. Minecraft: Nintendo Switch Edition - 66.050 / 822.890 - Microsoft 12/05/2017
2. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'N' Fun! - 66.908 / 344.161 - Bandai Namco 19/07/2018
3. Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate - 94.973 / 282.338 - Capcom 25/08/2017
4. Dragon Quest Builders 2 - 127.404 / 269.130 - Square Enix 20/12/2018
5. Octopath Traveler 109.579 / 193.780 - Square Enix 13/07/2018
6. Yo-kai Watch 4 150.721 / 191.097 - Level 5 20/06/2019
7. Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 for Nintendo Switch 23.011 / 181.090 - Bandai Namco 06/09/2017
8. Super Bomberman R 39.609 / 179.605 Konami - 03/03/2017
9. Super Dragon Ball Heroes: World Mission 70.990 / 123.963 - Bandai Namco 04/04/2019
10. FIFA 18 12.896 / 122.998 Electronic Arts - 29/09/2017
11. Pro Baseball Famista Evolution 36.550 / 110.954 - Bandai Namco 02/08/2018
12. The Snack World: TreJarers Gold 36.757 / 109.955 - Level 5 12/04/2018

Now let's analyze these third parties and see what they're bringing to Switch and potential.
- Square Enix is clearly continuing to support the Switch with DQXIS and Mana remake and continues to be a highlight of JP 3rd party Switch support.
- Capcom will only port games to Switch, Mega Man 11 didn't sell well, and Ace Attorney is MIA.
- Konami barely makes console games anymore, but will likely have another title join this list with Jikyou.
- Bandai Namco has had clear successes with the platform, especially with Dragon Ball, but weirdly refuses to fully support the platform, continuing to skip releases and port them later (lot of these non-Switch titles haven't sold that well either to even justify a late port).
- Sega - releases Sonic games and the ill-fated VC4. Mario & Sonic will probably enter this list and Atlus games take forever.
- Microsoft's Minecraft continues to do well, but other than Minecraft Dungeons, we can't expect much else to hit Switch from them.
- Koei Tecmo - continues to support the Switch with nearly everything, but just nothing has broken out.
- Level 5 - They're clearly capable of still making some of the better selling titles out there, but their developmental pipeline seems to be in shambles
- EA - Has backed off of FIFA with FIFA 20 being legacy.

So where does that leave the Switch in terms of known upcoming 3rd party titles that could maybe get to this sales level or above?
Marvelous - RF4S, RF5, DxM?, Harvest Moon remake?
Square Enix - DQXIS, Trials of Mana remake
Sega - Mario & Sonic 2020, SMTV (whenever that is)
.... I think that's it?

no consoles noted, but DQM is in development.
it would do 100k+ if so.

 

Deleted member 8593

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
27,176
You realize that 4-5000 is exactly what I predicted last year as the baseline of the game, while Mario kart would stay closer to 10k? No you don't, because you're just trying to be dickish as always. Keep up the good work.

Look, I have no interest in indulging your weird outbursts and grudges because you're so invested in your predictions. It's not my fault you got a chip on your shoulder because other people in this thread have been dunking on you for close to a year now and you get ticked off by a harmless picture. You're an adult so do yourself a favour and put me on your ignore list if you're gonna act like a baby about a joke that wasn't even directed at you. I don't care about your victimhood ass behaviour. I was never a part of these discussions and if I was, I certainly don't remember nor do I care to. You're not that important.
 
Jan 10, 2018
7,207
Tokyo
Look, I have no interest in indulging your weird outbursts and grudges because you're so invested in your predictions. It's not my fault you got a chip on your shoulder because other people in this thread have been dunking on you for close to a year now and you get ticked off by a harmless picture. You're an adult so do yourself a favour and put me on your ignore list if you're gonna act like a baby about a joke that wasn't even directed at you. I don't care about your victimhood ass behaviour. I was never a part of these discussions and if I was, I certainly don't remember nor do I care to. You're not that important.

You're very angry, for someone who doesn't care. I'll continue posting here and answering to whoever I want though. :)
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
Next Ace Attorney starts to look more and more possible as a low effort and budget mobile game. When even Nintendo says there's no place anymore for adventure games Capcom must be ready to bury it.

I feel AA has alway been a low-budget franchise. Sure, Capcom has always had moderate sales expectations but that's because the mainline entries started to sell a lot on DS.

30./23. [3DS] Pokemon Ultra Sun / Ultra Moon # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2017.11.17} (¥4.980) - 1.510 / 2.485.870 <80-100%> (+18%)

I feel this is one of the surprises of the last few years; many people predicted it couldn't sell above 2m but it's still charting and considering the dual pack it's sell above 2.5m. Sales must be driven by the fact that it's the last traditional Pokémon game and Let's Go didn't cannibalize its potential.

You realize that 4-5000 is exactly what I predicted last year as the baseline of the game, while Mario kart would stay closer to 10k? No you don't, because you're just trying to be dickish as always. Keep up the good work.

I fact-checked your analysis plenty of times but you never replied to me.

You predicted a causal effect between the introduction of NSO and a decline in Splatoon 2 sales. This has never been proven other than through a very weak correlation (but correlation=/=causation). In fact, there are many factors who impacted on Splatoon 2, first and foremost the fact that it's already sold 3.2m+ units on a 8m platform. Splatoon 2 would never keep selling as well as it was selling when it was below 2.5-2.6m. Mario Kart kept selling higher numbers because its cumulative sales were lower. Smash is already slowing down a lot and rightfully so: you can sell only as much on a limited installed base and when you're already as popular.
 

Herb Alpert

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,033
Paris, France
The stock clearance strategy is working better than expected lol.
Time to release this revision Nintendo or else you won't have anything to sell during summer.
 

Bonejack

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,654
If stock clearing is the reason they're running out of system in Japan, i think Nintendo might have a problem if the speculated september release for the revision(s) is true. ^^

Also, not a good time for stock issues when you're about to start the main release wave for this year.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
They said they were clearing stocks of the regular Switch SKUs that will be replaced with the ones with the 3000 yens voucher.

Is even the Neon Switch with the voucher out of stock ?
 
Oct 27, 2017
282
Sussex, England, UK
But why clear the original Switch if there's no replacement for the original yet? Not that there isn't, but unlike the Mini there's been no (quasi-concrete proof) of an imminent replacement.
Unless it's more that they had to move factories so suddenly there was/is a period none could be produced?
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
If stock clearing is the reason they're running out of system in Japan, i think Nintendo might have a problem if the speculated september release for the revision(s) is true. ^^

Also, not a good time for stock issues when you're about to start the main release wave for this year.
If they are clearing stock now for a revision, they are launching that revision soon.
 

Deleted member 8593

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
27,176
You're very angry, for someone who doesn't care. I'll continue posting here and answering to whoever I want though. :)

I will ponder over this brilliant use of "u mad bro" until next time you get your knickers in a twist over someone joking about NSO. If I manage to recover from the whiplash of you catapulting this conversation back to high school levels of retorts.



September is gonna be fun. August not so much? Stay safe, Astral Chain.

But why clear the original Switch if there's no replacement for the original yet? Not that there isn't, but unlike the Mini there's been no (quasi-concrete proof) of an imminent replacement.
Unless it's more that they had to move factories so suddenly there was/is a period none could be produced?

I thought the idea was to launch the pro and the mini at the same time?
 

Bonejack

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,654
If they are clearing stock now for a revision, they are launching that revision soon.

Well, they have to. Not having stock on shelves in Japan is for this system bad, not having stock when you're about to release game after game (because fuck even distributed schedule, am i right?) is worse.
 

Dark Cloud

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
61,087
Nintendo is about to go on a roll with game after game after game...you can't seriously start running out of stock now without people knowing the revision is coming very soon. You need stock for these games. Don't hurt Astral Chain!
 
Oct 27, 2017
282
Sussex, England, UK
I hope they aren't really gonna be keeping a low stock till friggin September

Announce and release these things already
Surely the danger will be that, they will be so in need of stock, they will just have to shadow-drop the things without any lead-in time or chance to communicate to the public what is going on. May negate to a degree the benefit of launching new models in my opinion.
 

VHS

Alt account
Banned
May 8, 2019
834
Horizon Zero Dawn - Complete just came out in Japan? Or is this a new SKU?
 

hiska-kun

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,410
What I heard is that retailers are ordering new Switch units to Nintendo, but there is no inventory so no new units are coming.
And this is not limited to Japan.
 

Mpl90

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,215
At this point, I wonder if both revisions are coming even sooner than what we thought, i.e. in time for Obon.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
Chris1964, would a diminishing stock mean that Switch revision(s) is(are) going to substitute Switch and not complement its presence in the market?

29./18. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.07.19} (¥6.100) - 1.572 / 345.733 <80-100%> (+4%)

As a reference:

[PS4] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum Session! <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.10.26} - 21.291 / 81.438
 
Jan 10, 2018
7,207
Tokyo
I feel AA has alway been a low-budget franchise. Sure, Capcom has always had moderate sales expectations but that's because the mainline entries started to sell a lot on DS.



I feel this is one of the surprises of the last few years; many people predicted it couldn't sell above 2m but it's still charting and considering the dual pack it's sell above 2.5m. Sales must be driven by the fact that it's the last traditional Pokémon game and Let's Go didn't cannibalize its potential.



I fact-checked your analysis plenty of times but you never replied to me.

You predicted a causal effect between the introduction of NSO and a decline in Splatoon 2 sales. This has never been proven other than through a very weak correlation (but correlation=/=causation). In fact, there are many factors who impacted on Splatoon 2, first and foremost the fact that it's already sold 3.2m+ units on a 8m platform. Splatoon 2 would never keep selling as well as it was selling when it was below 2.5-2.6m. Mario Kart kept selling higher numbers because its cumulative sales were lower. Smash is already slowing down a lot and rightfully so: you can sell only as much on a limited installed base and when you're already as popular.

When you reduce the potential buyer base by more than 3/4 (the latest numbers regarding NSO showed that roughly 1/4 of Switch owners where NSO subscribers), it's impossible not to impact the sales of a game.
People without NSO can buy Mario Kart, Smash, or even Mario Makers 2. People without NSO would not buy Splatoon 2, that would be dumb even if the single player mode is excellent in my opinion.
So the fact that there is a clear correlation on a relatively short timescale is a strong indication of causation in that context.

Now, I haven't talked about that for the past few months even though the sales align nearly perfectly with what I said back in October, and again, I do not intend to continue this pointless debate any longer; especially as it'll soon be obsolete with Splatoon 3 probably releasing next year (another thing I predicted more than a year ago, and behind which an increasing number of people are starting to get ;) ). 2020 is going to be fun.

Have all a great day. Except for Dardan Sandiego who's having a bad day apparently.