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VHS

Alt account
Banned
May 8, 2019
834
What I heard is that retailers are ordering new Switch units to Nintendo, but there is no inventory so no new units are coming.
And this is not limited to Japan.
Ah, leading this to seem more true
www.wsj.com

Nintendo Plans New Version of Switch Next Year

Nintendo plans to release a new version of its Switch videogame console next year to maintain the sales momentum of the device.

Nintendo is looking to release the new Switch in the latter half of 2019, perhaps as soon as summer, the people said.


People involved in the supply chain said production in Southeast Asia has started for the Switch, including the current type and the two new models, suggesting Nintendo is getting ready to introduce them soon. They didn't give specific volume figures but said Nintendo wanted to have enough units to sell in the U.S., the largest market for videogame consoles, when the new products go on the market.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,410
A source from a major retailer in Spain told me the same situation is happening there. I don't know how spread is the situation or if it will be fixed soon, but at least we have hints of stock issues from two countries.
 

Mpl90

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,215
As stated by Nintendo's own Full FY financial results back in April, up to March 31st 2019 the levels of inventory were way higher than usual. That means that Nintendo stocked up Switch systems and (presumably) production of new units has slowed down considerably for months. It's not just right now that production has decreased, due to shifting factories: the slowdown has been going on for a while
 

hiska-kun

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,410
In any case, Switch is still available in most of the stores in Japan at the moment. The problem will be if any of them get more stock soon.
 

foxuzamaki

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,550
Interested in seeing how Fire Emblem does.
Hard to get a read on it, it's changing a lot but impressions from trailers don't seem very hype.

Still no idea if the game will turn out well with the year long delay being concerning. Timing seems good and hopefully the game ends up being better than it seems.

Skipped 2/3rds of Fates and the remake, but I did like Awakening.
You havent seen any reactions because theres been nothing but hype from the trailers
 

Refyref

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,025
Chris1964, would a diminishing stock mean that Switch revision(s) is(are) going to substitute Switch and not complement its presence in the market?
I'm not Chris, but not necessarily. Aside from the possibility that moving the production location might have temporarily affected Nintendo's stockpiles, there could also be the possibility that, as a cost-cutting move, they're switching some of the components of the current Switch model for ones that are also used in the revised models. That way, there could be a change in production, affecting stock, but with the final product not being a different model from the consumers' standpoint.
 

DarkDetective

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,906
The Netherlands
Did the DS Lite substitute the DS?
Did the DSi substitute the DS Lite?
Did the DSi XL substitute the DSi?

If it's just a form-factor difference, there's no need for replacement. However, 'new models' indeed substitute the old model, unless it's a budget option (such as the 2DS). I fully expect Nintendo to reveal a new Switch model (perhaps two, even) that will replace the current Switch. Compare it with the DS Lite, and then another handheld-only model that will be cheaper, which I compare to the 2DS: cheap, robust, but still a good value proposition if you want to enjoy the Switch's content on the go.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,410
Shipment is ~300k going by Dengeki. But going by Famitsu it's at least over 326k... (higher end up to 490k).
Too bad we don't have the shipment numbers from Superior tracker.

We'll see Nintendo shipment at the end of the month.
 
Oct 26, 2017
7,981
Chris1964, would a diminishing stock mean that Switch revision(s) is(are) going to substitute Switch and not complement its presence in the market?

Did the DS Lite substitute the DS?
Did the DSi substitute the DS Lite?
Did the DSi XL substitute the DSi?

If it's just a form-factor difference, there's no need for replacement. However, 'new models' indeed substitute the old model, unless it's a budget option (such as the 2DS). I fully expect Nintendo to reveal a new Switch model (perhaps two, even) that will replace the current Switch. Compare it with the DS Lite, and then another handheld-only model that will be cheaper, which I compare to the 2DS: cheap, robust, but still a good value proposition if you want to enjoy the Switch's content on the go.

Yeah I can't think of a reason to keep the old Switch around, it'll be a lot simpler for them just to make one model in that form. The processor for the current one is supposedly getting more expensive to make as it's on an end of life process, so it should at least need its innards revising even if it looks the same outside.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,739
Italy
When you reduce the potential buyer base by more than 3/4 (the latest numbers regarding NSO showed that roughly 1/4 of Switch owners where NSO subscribers), it's impossible not to impact the sales of a game.
People without NSO can buy Mario Kart, Smash, or even Mario Makers 2. People without NSO would not buy Splatoon 2, that would be dumb even if the single player mode is excellent in my opinion.
So the fact that there is a clear correlation on a relatively short timescale is a strong indication of causation in that context.

Now, I haven't talked about that for the past few months even though the sales align nearly perfectly with what I said back in October, and again, I do not intend to continue this pointless debate any longer; especially as it'll soon be obsolete with Splatoon 3 probably releasing next year (another thing I predicted more than a year ago, and behind which an increasing number of people are starting to get ;) ). 2020 is going to be fun.

Have all a great day. Except for Dardan Sandiego who's having a bad day apparently.

It's not as clear-cut as you're arguing. First, many people might still buy Splatoon 2 without playing it online, especially young kids (which, I suspect, are the bulk of late sales); second, your data about NSO subscription are relative to all Switch owners rather than new Switch ones that are cumulating week after week--Splatoon 2 and other evergreen sales mostly come from new owners.

The presence of a correlation doesn't imply causation, especially because it is such a short term correlation. Indeed, I already proved that the launch of NSO happened along with the end of Splatoon 2 bundles and the end of Summer which likely impacted sales.

The fact that Splatoon 2 is selling around 5k units two years after release is nothing unexpected, rather it is an obvious result considering how much sales the game has cumulated. Smash is already selling less than Splatoon 2, launch aligned: because it has already achieved a critical sales mass. Two years from release Smash is going to sell less than how it's selling now.

I'm not Chris, but not necessarily. Aside from the possibility that moving the production location might have temporarily affected Nintendo's stockpiles, there could also be the possibility that, as a cost-cutting move, they're switching some of the components of the current Switch model for ones that are also used in the revised models. That way, there could be a change in production, affecting stock, but with the final product not being a different model from the consumers' standpoint.

Thanks, that might be a good reason.

Did the DS Lite substitute the DS?
Did the DSi substitute the DS Lite?
Did the DSi XL substitute the DSi?

If it's just a form-factor difference, there's no need for replacement. However, 'new models' indeed substitute the old model, unless it's a budget option (such as the 2DS). I fully expect Nintendo to reveal a new Switch model (perhaps two, even) that will replace the current Switch. Compare it with the DS Lite, and then another handheld-only model that will be cheaper, which I compare to the 2DS: cheap, robust, but still a good value proposition if you want to enjoy the Switch's content on the go.

Well, DS Lite in fact substituted DS.
 
Oct 26, 2017
7,981
DS had shortages before DS Lite came out too. And even after DS Lite launched, they couldn't keep up with demand.
 

Kerotan

Banned
Oct 31, 2018
3,951
17./11. [PS4] Monster Hunter: World [Best Price] # <ACT> (Capcom) {2018.08.02} (¥4.990) - 3.550 / 64.658 <80-100%> (+7%)

The best price version showing good legs. Makes me wonder how much world will sell when all is said and done. Icebourne will surely give it a healthy boost. Should end up between 3.5 and 4m.
 

Lite_Agent

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,572
Somewhere. I think.
The Story of Seasons GBA remake it is releasing in October 17th in Japan.


This was already known, actually. The real deal is that the game is clearly labeled at the first on Switch, and that the western release was confirmed in the PR (which is highly unusual for Japanese PR).

West:

株式会社マーベラスは、Nintendo Switch用ソフト『牧場物語 再会のミネラルタウン』を 2019年10月17日(木)に発売いたします。価格は、5,800 円+税です。尚、海外展開につきましては、北米は XSEED Games / Marvelous USA, Inc.より、欧州版は Marvelous Europe からの発売が決定しております。

Switch:

Nintendo Switch ではじまる『牧場物語』シリーズ第1弾
「牧場物語」シリーズ初の Nintendo Switch 用ソフトである本作は、2003 年に発売した『牧場物語 ミネラルタウンのなかまたち』および『牧場物語 ミネラルタウンのなかまたち for ガール』を原作としたフルリメイク作品です。自然いっぱいの牧場で、野菜や果物を育てたり、動物のお世話をしたり、町に住む人たちと恋愛・結婚したり、人生をまるごと楽しめる「ほのぼの生活ゲーム」です。

What I heard is that retailers are ordering new Switch units to Nintendo, but there is no inventory so no new units are coming.
And this is not limited to Japan.

So SMM2 bombed so hard, even Nintendo lost confidence and is about to pull a Dreamcast on us. Great.

Is it the case even for the 3000Y/35$/35€/30£ voucher SKUs ?

There's no separate SKU. You buy the console, you get your voucher.

Nintendo lists all the eligible packs on this page, and it includes the Monster Hunter bundle which has been discontinued ages ago.


Hell, you could say the fact they include even bundles that are out of stock at most retailers is a sign they're clearing stock.

At this point, I wonder if both revisions are coming even sooner than what we thought, i.e. in time for Obon.

If yes, that'd be one hell of a logistical marvel if they pulled that one off.
 
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sinonobu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,027
Playstation 4 version of Samurai Spirits Sales (Phyiscal Shipment + DL) has surpassed 40k in Japan in one week.

SNK even provided sales breakdown between physical and digital - with package selling 30,179 copies, and digital selling 10,427 copies - resulting in total of 40,606 sales.

They are giving away free PS Theme for celebrating this milestone.

 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
How are we supposed to calculate digital for Mario Maker 2 now.

Dengeki gives 1,01m for Mario Maker Wii U and 1,20m for Mario Maker 3DS.
 

MysticGon

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 31, 2017
7,285
Playstation 4 version of Samurai Spirits Sales (Phyiscal Shipment + DL) has surpassed 40k in Japan in one week.

SNK even provided sales breakdown between physical and digital - with package selling 30,179 copies, and digital selling 10,427 copies - resulting in total of 40,606 sales.

They are giving away free PS Theme for celebrating this milestone.


I like celebrating modest milestones like this. Even though the audience is small it's appreciated.

On a side note Switch June 2018 sales were 177k vs 166k for this year. The big releases for last June were Minecraft and Mario Tennis.
 

Mpl90

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,215
Actual shipment AND digital numbers for the first week of a game? What is this glimpse of paradise?!?

Seriously though, what a nice surprise. Using the released numbers and combining them with both Famitsu and Dengeki sales

Famitsu
First week retail up to June 30th, 2019 - 16,662
First week retail + digital up to July 3rd, 2019 - 27,089
Digital share ceiling up to June 30th, 2019 - 38.49%

Dengeki
First week retail up to June 30th, 2019 - 14,528
First week retail + digital up to July 3rd, 2019 - 24,955
Digital share ceiling up to June 30th, 2019 - 41.78%
 
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K Samedi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,989
It's not as clear-cut as you're arguing. First, many people might still buy Splatoon 2 without playing it online, especially young kids (which, I suspect, are the bulk of late sales); second, your data about NSO subscription are relative to all Switch owners rather than new Switch ones that are cumulating week after week--Splatoon 2 and other evergreen sales mostly come from new owners.

The presence of a correlation doesn't imply causation, especially because it is such a short term correlation. Indeed, I already proved that the launch of NSO happened along with the end of Splatoon 2 bundles and the end of Summer which likely impacted sales.

The fact that Splatoon 2 is selling around 5k units two years after release is nothing unexpected, rather it is an obvious result considering how much sales the game has cumulated. Smash is already selling less than Splatoon 2, launch aligned: because it has already achieved a critical sales mass. Two years from release Smash is going to sell less than how it's selling n
There's probably a lot of factors playing in the sales decline of Splatoon and you explained them quite well but I think the most simplest explanation is that NSO had a significant impact. I usually tend to go for the most simple explanation.
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Actual shipment AND digital numbers for the first week of a game? What is this glimpse of paradise?!?

Seriously though, what a nice surprise. Using the released numbers and combining them with both Famitsu and Dengeki sales

Famitsu
First week retail - 16,662
First week sell-through - 55.21%*
First week retail + digital - 27,089
Digital share - 38.49%

Dengeki
First week retail - 14,528
First week sell-through - 48.14%
First week retail + digital - 24,955
Digital share - 41.78%

*this goes against Famitsu's own reported sell-through (60-80%)
Until 3 July. It's a full week of sales.
 
Jan 10, 2018
7,207
Tokyo
There's probably a lot of factors playing in the sales decline of Splatoon and you explained them quite well but I think the most simplest explanation is that NSO had a significant impact. I usually tend to go for the most simple explanation.

It's not only the most simple, it's the one that makes the most sense in the context that the potential buyer base was reduced by a significant chunk literally overnight when NSO became a thing.
You would need to have 100% of the non Splatoon owners and 100% of the new Switch buyers to subscribe to NSO to keep the same market size for a game that literally everyone buys to play online. And thinking that Japanese kids would buy it without NSO is really not knowing much about Japanese kids. They are very very much aware of what's going on.
Also, the next drop will be after the final Splatefest, though the Obon holidays will slightly offset this in August.
 

Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,679
Also isn't Famitsu and the other trackers sell-through? I am asking because it looks like SNK provided shipped numbers and not sold through so that might be another explanation for the discrepancy. Unless I am missing something.
 

Mpl90

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,215
If yes, that'd be one hell of a logistical marvel if they pulled that one off.

I'm aware this is a bold prediction, but there's another element that makes me think it's possible, as weird as it may sound: Tetris 99's retail release date. It's happening on August 9th, 2019 (close to Obon), which is a Friday. Since this is a Nintendo-published game in every territory, this would usually translate into a simultaneous WW release...and yet, there's no announcement for the West so far. Given its nature, I assume a short announcement-to-release period can be enough (the Japanese one is pretty short as well), especially if they pair its announcement with the new revisions' unveiling. For new users, it might also be a pretty nice package, especially for those buying the Switch Mini: for just 3,000 Yen, you get a pretty neat game (including additional content) AND a one-year Nintendo Online membership.
 

Deleted member 8593

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
27,176
There's probably a lot of factors playing in the sales decline of Splatoon and you explained them quite well but I think the most simplest explanation is that NSO had a significant impact. I usually tend to go for the most simple explanation.

Can't really go simpler than "it has already sold a lot."
 

MesaEterna

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 28, 2017
906
tumblr_no3irao7kG1u0jzt2o1_r1_500.gif

LOL The movement has begun.
パワーオーブ!!!!!!
 

Deleted member 8593

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
27,176
Yeah and the market realized that overnight and divided the baseline by about 2.5.

Yeah, sfortunato already pointed out that there were several factors coinciding at the same time at play here. And that Smash is showing a similarly rapid decline after its sales reached a critical amount. I am not entirely sure what the issue here is.

but anyway, I thought...

I do not intend to continue this pointless debate any longer

Are you sure that you aren't projecting your own anger and frustration onto others? 🤔🤔🤔
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,617
Speaking of Splatoon 2, which has been destroyed by Nintendo Switch Online™️, seems like it's getting one final promotional push with the final Splatfest.

Was featured during Nintendo's e3 tournaments and is even getting a Tetris 99 crossover.
Not sure if that'll showcase in a final boost this month.

Narratively it's clearly setting something up.
That the next story content is set in a world split in a world of chaos and a world of order (kind of like Splatoon 1 set up Callie and Marie in the sequel)
I'm sticking to my Splattershots here, pretty sure this is all leading up to Splatoon 3 to be released 2020.

Don't think there's much they can/will do to turf war, but I imagine they'll add a new mode along with a new campaign.

So, what do we expect the Splatoon team to try out?
Or in other words, what do we think would help improve Splatoon's reach?
Salmon Run, Splatoon's take on hoard mode, was the main new addition to Splatoon 2.
Don't think people care too much about hoard mode now a days, what's popular now is:
  • Battle Royal - it's really popular but also really crowded. Worked out for CoD, issue would be if switch could handle it.
  • Cooperative Hunting - might require all the efforts of single player content but it would likely work and be pretty popular if done right.
  • Hero Shooter - seems like these aren't as popular anymore, but Nintendo's always a bit behind.
Or they might wait for one of these on Splatoon 4 on switch 2, or whatever.

A release next year would benefit from one or two new models combined with a price drop to bring in a whole new market as well as a more established NSO userbase. New hardware can enhance the game, perhaps enabling voice chat more easily out the box.

They have a lot of assets and an engine they can use which might not transition well towards a next gen switch 3-4 years from now, so it would be a smart/efficient use of resources. If it's out next year it'll give Splatoon 3 a similar life to Splatoon 1 and 2 while they prepare for the next gen Splatoon 4.

I guess the issue with including a hunter or a battle royal mode is the amount of work required for such a mode, perhaps in place of a single player campaign like CoD?
Both would require a large-ish map which the engine might not be suited for.
Battle royal with paint would likely be a nightmare with at least 30 different colors unless it's divided in squid squads. Maybe using a water gun for solo?

Cooperative Hunting mode would probably take the place of both single player and salmon run.
You already fight tough enemies together in salmon run so expanding on that concept should work.

As for the story, I don't think the results of the final Splatfest will matter too much. They likely already have the idea in the works and wouldn't let something as volatile as Splatfests ruin it.
Kind of like them knowing that Marie was more popular than Callie so they wouldn't have had them switch places in case Callie came out on top due to wins. (Or they might rig it, dunno)
 
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Glio

Member
Oct 27, 2017
24,497
Spain
The only way Splatoon 2 has to sell more is for Nintendo to promote fertility campaigns in Japan so there are more children.
 

jnWake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,108
Are we really back on the NSO vs Splatoon 2 discussion. I'd rather discuss DQXII even.
 

Bunkles

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
5,663
Why do these threads devolve so badly? Why the constant need for battle here?
 

mao2

Member
Oct 28, 2017
639
SNK announced that PS4 version of Samurai Shodown has topped 40K on its debut week in Japan. 40,606 copies to be exact, with the majority of 30,179 from physical sales and 10,427 from downloads.
【集計詳細】
■対象タイトル
PlayStation®4版『SAMURAI SPIRITS』
■対象地域
日本
■集計期間
2019年6月27日(木)~2019年7月3日(水)
■内訳
パッケージ出荷本数 30,179本
ダウンロード販売本数 10,427本
計40,606本
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,617
it really feels like some of you live on a different planet with a different video game industry
We know the last Splatfest of Splatoon 1 led into the story of Splatoon 2.
Splatfests and content updates are done, but they're teasing a pretty big story event.
Do we really think Nintendo is going to tease the story of Splatoon 3 and then not release the game for 4 years?

The time between Splatoon 1 and 2 was just 2 years, don't know how "just 3" seems so bizarre