Media Create Sales: Week 28, 2018 (Jul 09 - Jul 15)

Nocturnal

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,321
Mario Kart 7 First Year:

Media Create Sales: Week 49, 2012 (Dec 03 - Dec 09)

3DS LTD - 8.799.378
3DS Week 49 - 211.499
20./26. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 <RCE> (Nintendo) {2011.12.01} (¥4.800) - 8.611 / 1.851.264
Physical Attach Rate LTD: 21%
Attach Rate for Week 49: 4%


Animal Crossing: New Leaf First Year:


Media Create Sales: Week 49, 2013 (Dec 02 - Dec 08)
3DS LTD - 13.702.150
3DS Week 49 - 125.269
16./26. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2012.11.08} (¥4.800) - 15.039 / 3.496.578
Physical Attach Rate LTD: 26%
Attach Rate for Week 49: 12%


Splatoon 2 First Year:

Media Create Sales: Week 28, 2018 (Jul 09 - Jul 15)
Switch LTD - 4.624.235
Switch Week 28 - 50.239
04./03. [NSW] Splatoon 2 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} (¥5.980) - 20.430 / 2.447.782
Physical Attach Rate LTD: 53%
Attach Rate for Week 28: 41%


Splatoon 2 is doing relatively better than Animal Crossing: New Leaf one year after release. If we pull up and see the type of sales AC:NL & MK7 were getting one year after release - becomes clear that Splatoon 2 seems a different beast. Splatoon 2's abnormal legs can probably to push it in third place behind Pokemon Red/Blue & SMB in Japan by 2021 in terms of physical+digital sales. It's actually performing much stronger than Animal Crossing and MK7 two games with notoriously long sales cycle. By the time AC:NL was out for one year it required big 3DS sales(>125K) to reach 15K sales, during Christmas Week(51) it reached 41K while 3DS was selling 232K. Obviously there is a bundle right now but Splatoon 2 was doing 15K regularly during the slowest part of the year and hardly even needs a bundle to sell. I think Nintendo will continue to market the game with another major update being situated between November and Christmas - it continues to be the main reason someone would purchase the paid online in Japan. Although Smash, Pokemon and Yo-Kai are all coming I think those games will likely have a greater impact on other title's 2019 legs. Majority of evergreens will do well this fall because I envision Switch selling >200K per week during those game's launch weeks. It will be interesting how many times Splatoon 2 will be able to hit >100K per week this fall. I think Switch can sell >3M more units in Japan by the end of the year, while Splatoon maintains >33% physical attach rate for those >3M new owners. If that happens we are looking at around >3.5M units on >7.6M user-base.

Splatoon 2, its doing an extraordinary thing in Japan - the main questions are:
- how long it's able to maintain this type of popularity
- when will Nintendo release Splatoon 3
- whether they will continue initiatives to popularize the current game outside of Japan
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,614
Splatoon 2, its doing an extraordinary thing in Japan - the main questions are:
- how long it's able to maintain this type of popularity
- when will Nintendo release Splatoon 3
- whether they will continue initiatives to popularize the current game outside of Japan
It’s interesting.
Nintendo originally just promised updates with new content for just 1 year.
But the game’s success made it so they extended the update deadline by half a year or so.
Splatfest continues until mid to late 2019.

Splatoon 1’s final splatfest which lead directly into Splatoon 2 launched almost exactly a year before the sequel.
If they want to continue this pattern Splatoon 3 could come out 2020 or prior.

Splatoon 2 launched 2 years after the first game. 2 years between every entry does also sound pretty good with titles like CoD coming out yearly.
Though Splatoon 2 coming out in 2019 feels too soon. I’m interested in Switch’s year 3 where the dev teams of Switch’s incredible year 1 should have new things out or at least shown.
If they have any plans for Switch pro or something along those lines, that would be a good time for it
 
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Apr 9, 2018
507
Splatoon 3 will come out on whatever the successor of the Switch is. Nintendo doesn't refresh their multiplayer games on the same platform.

I could see them doing a spinoff game in the meantime though if they're not happy just rolling out more DLC
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,614
Splatoon 3 will come out on whatever the successor of the Switch is. Nintendo doesn't refresh their multiplayer games on the same platform.

I could see them doing a spinoff game in the meantime though if they're not happy just rolling out more DLC
They usually don’t, but they tend to release multiple versions of entry titles (MK7 and MK8 are different games; out 2 years and a half after each other)
Guess those teams could work on other games, but leaving these games without a new entry in 5 years seems a bit much seeing as MK8D and Splatoon launched on switch’s year 1 and at least Splatoon won’t get updates after December
 
Oct 27, 2017
15,517
They usually don’t, but they tend to release multiple versions of entry titles (MK7 and MK8 are different games; out 2 years and a half after each other)
Guess those teams could work on other games, but leaving these games without a new entry in 5 years seems a bit much seeing as MK8D and Splatoon launched on switch’s year 1 and at least Splatoon won’t get updates after December
You're talking about handheld and console entries. Those aren't treated the same way. I agree with that poster, there isn't going to be a Splatoon 3 on the Switch. Much like there probably won't be another Smash after Ultimate and another MK considering they don't seem done with 8 (;_;). These were always once a system games and that model works even better now with DLC allowing them to update them.

I honestly think Splatoon 2 will just get more mode updates and maybe another paid DLC
 

*Guaraná

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,085
Do you guys believe we'll see Switch's Animal Crossing in 2019?
We already have Pokemon and potentially Metroid, but this is is it as big as Splatoon, Pokemon and Animal Crossing.
 
Oct 26, 2017
8,220
Do you guys believe we'll see Switch's Animal Crossing in 2019?
We already have Pokemon and potentially Metroid, but this is is it as big as Splatoon, Pokemon and Animal Crossing.
Personally, I'm guessing it didn't get started in full development until Splatoon 2 and BotW and Arms were finished so I wouldn't expect it before 2020.

I think Mario Maker 2 and Pokemon Gen 8 will be their two big games next year and they'll have enough midtier releases like:

-Fire Emblem Three Houses
-StarFox Racing
-Bayonetta 3
-Metroid Prime 4/Metroid Fusion Remake
-Yoshi
-Various ports

To have a good year overall.
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,614
You're talking about handheld and console entries. Those aren't treated the same way. I agree with that poster, there isn't going to be a Splatoon 3 on the Switch. Much like there probably won't be another Smash after Ultimate and another MK considering they don't seem done with 8 (;_;). These were always once a system games and that model works even better now with DLC allowing them to update them.

I honestly think Splatoon 2 will just get more mode updates and maybe another paid DLC
Updates end in December. This is something that was announced
 

Alrus

Member
Oct 25, 2017
505
Belgium
Yeah I can see KH selling a lot. First one on console in a long ass time and it looks great. Might even do better than FF XV.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,669
Just realized that Fantasy Life Online is already available on smartphones.
After more than 3 years, Level 5 managed to release it.
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,998
Unofficial but first weekend of August is speculated for Octopath Traveler "big" restock.
 

silpheed-mcd

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,072
Damn, repurchase price in a store (seagull), same price in others stores (highest price i saw before: 5.750 yen):






Otasou Horita



The lowest price i saw today



 
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Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,769
To put it into perspective : an used copy of Octopath Traveler is worth 6 times more than a new copy of New Gundam Breaker.
 

Geg

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,762
They said that Octo Expansion was the first paid DLC for Splatoon 2. More is coming.
My first thought when I heard him say that during the announcement was that it was because it was, in fact, the first paid DLC for Splatoon 2 because everything up to that point in both games had been free, aside from amiibos. I didn't realize people understood it the other way until I read reactions. Even now I'm not really sure exactly what it means. Nogami's line in Japanese doesn't specifically mention "first" dlc like the translation does.

I'd like there to be more though. The recent famitsu interview this week implies they're still thinking about future scenarios but I don't know if they mean for future dlc or future games in the series.
 

TongPoo

Member
Jul 14, 2018
152
It seems Octopath Traveller has raised quite some interest among Chinese gamers on social media. There was a petition campaign to both NintendoHK and SE for Chinese localisation.

It's funny to see some education company uses Switch to promote English course, I just wonder when will Nintendo put proper Chinese language support for the system.
 

MrCafecito

Member
Oct 28, 2017
770
Speaking of China, why exactly foes Switch not include Chinese and Korean for the OS? It's a far smaller translation than some games and yet they don't do it? It's weird
 

Mpl90

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,380
I'm somewhat skeptical that famitsu is accurate with Switch digital...but it should be really high I would suspect?
Honestly, I'm skeptical of Famitsu digital estimates in general, given their "tracking method" based on surveys. That's why I'm usually very wary on using their estimates as that reliable.

And since this was mentioned earlier in the thread, seeing the KH Collection picking up as much steam as it did past E3 should be a pretty good sign for KHIII once it's released. It's definitely showing that there's interest in what's the first main iteration of the franchise in 13 years. I think it's too soon for more accurate forecasts, but I can't see a scenario where it doesn't sell around 500,000 as the lowest floor, at the current state.
 
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Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,724
The Netherlands
Honestly, I'm skeptical of Famitsu digital estimates in general, given their "tracking method" based on surveys. That's why I'm usually very wary on using their estimates as that reliable.

And since this was mentioned earlier in the thread, seeing the KH Collection picking up as much steam as it did past E3 should be a pretty good sign for KHIII once it's released. It's definitely showing that there's interest in what's the first main iteration of the franchise in 13 years. I think it's too soon for more accurate forecasts, but I can't see a scenario where it doesn't sell around 500,000 as the lowest ceiling, at the current state.
Lifetime or first week? As a lifetime number that's a very low bar which it will easily cross imo.
 

K Samedi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,497
Honestly, I'm skeptical of Famitsu digital estimates in general, given their "tracking method" based on surveys. That's why I'm usually very wary on using their estimates as that reliable.

And since this was mentioned earlier in the thread, seeing the KH Collection picking up as much steam as it did past E3 should be a pretty good sign for KHIII once it's released. It's definitely showing that there's interest in what's the first main iteration of the franchise in 13 years. I think it's too soon for more accurate forecasts, but I can't see a scenario where it doesn't sell around 500,000 as the lowest ceiling, at the current state.
Isnt this the general way of estimating sales? Sampling and extrapolating? I figure surveying digital buy percentage is as good a method as surveying in store purchases fron retailers.