• Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
  • We have made minor adjustments to how the search bar works on ResetEra. You can read about the changes here.

logash

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,739
Excellent numbers for Octopath but I got to wonder how much it would have done if they didn't under ship.
 

konoka

Member
Dec 20, 2017
387
Meaningless. The software numbers are nowhere near as close as you indicated. I mean the numbers are right there in the OP. All you gotta do is put them into a calculator to realize how off you were.
I can calculate the sum of top 20 using Media Create top 20 numbers but it's not OVERALL.
It's same for Famitsu top 30 or Dengeki top 50.
But Dengeki reports real overall numbers below the top 50 lists, so we can know that.
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
well, the division he's from (BD6) practically outsources all their work anyway. I do think Nintendo has to have had some hand in the creation of BD11 though. while Asano mentioned that multiplatform wasn't off the table for future games, I can't help but feel the closeness to Nintendo is their main driver. it'd be stupid to cut them off when Nintendo, 1) made up the bulk of your body of works, and 2) was responsible for 2 (soon to be 3) of your best selling games

hell, OT was one of the games revealed at the January show, I wouldn't put it past Nintendo to specifically ask for another Asano game

Huh, where was that said?

I remember seeing Takahashi saying they weren't working on just Switch titles but I took that to mean mobile to be honest.
 

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,355
My guess is that PS4 will be about flat, 3DS might lose 700k-800k sales YoY and the Vita 100k.

Switch has 3 of the biggest JP franchises that are releasing this winter : Pokemon, Smash and Yokai Watch. Last year they only had Super Mario Odyssey that released in late October + supply constraints. So I am betting on huge Q4 for them, with a significant YoY increase.

It might do it, we'll have a clearer idea after knowing the full line-up and being closer to November/December.

3DS will be probably more like 1 million down yoy. Last year it still had great boost from DQXI and somewhat decent holiday sales. Depending on does Sony actually do a price drop PS4 could also be 100-200k down yoy. Like last year it has crappy release schedule for the second half of the year and if they go trough that with similar price as last year there is going to be a drop.
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
Mario Tennis Aces did a solid number but no HW bumps.
Octo and Toad did great but no HW bumps.

Isn't it kinda bad? New releases of first party titles are not driving hardware sales. Why can it be?
Nah this is expected. The price is the limiting factor and will always be the limiting factor until there's a price cut. The switch sells consistently well at a high price your not going to dramatic increases in hardware because the major driving force of switches weekly sales are back catalog rather than individual software releases. It's why it has so many ever greens. High price means the impulse is driven more by a cumulative effect rather than singular.
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,617
Mario Tennis Aces did a solid number but no HW bumps.
Octo and Toad did great but no HW bumps.

Isn't it kinda bad? New releases of first party titles are not driving hardware sales. Why can it be?
When you launch with killer apps that are also evergreens your system will probably always sell pretty well but I imagine barring massive titles you won't see a notable increase week over week.
Why would someone buy a Switch to play Mario Tennis when Mario Kart and Mario Odyssey came out? For example
 

casiopao

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
5,044
So compare it to Xenoblade? It's not a new IP, but it's not super well established considering how the first barely made it out of Japan

Xenoblade 2 never got hit stock problem though. And, it had season pass with super meaty dlc portion. Again. I am not saying that OT had no chance of having good legs lol. I am just saying, the stakes is not helping them.
 

Brainiac 8

Member
Oct 27, 2017
569
And here's the reason why Nintendo are re-releasing games on Switch.

And I hope they keep it up, and ignore those who complain about it. It doesn't take much manpower to move a game over to the switch.

I need Xenoblade X, Pikmin 3, TMS#FE, and Super Mario 3D World on the Switch. Then I will have very little reason to keep the Wii U around.
 

Marmoka

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,028
Great start for Octopath Traveler. They sure made a great marketing job, and the game looks really awesome.

And great for Captain Toad as well. This shows how badly Wii U games need to be ported to Switch (and I'm saying this as a Wii U and Switch owner).
 

xyla

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,386
Germany
My guess is that PS4 will be about flat, 3DS might lose 700k-800k sales YoY and the Vita 100k.

Switch has 3 of the biggest JP franchises that are releasing this winter : Pokemon, Smash and Yokai Watch. Last year they only had Super Mario Odyssey that released in late October + supply constraints. So I am betting on huge Q4 for them, with a significant YoY increase.

It might do it, we'll have a clearer idea after knowing the full line-up and being closer to November/December.

Yep, wait and see is the right approach I guess.
A little bit silly to philosophise over numbers that are still over 4 month out.
 

extralite

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
217
Meaningless. The software numbers are nowhere near as close as you indicated. I mean the numbers are right there in the OP. All you gotta do is put them into a calculator to realize how off you were.
How is it meaningless? Why restrict yourself to the top 10? The numbers konoka stated are correct, as per the source given.
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
I need Xenoblade X, Pikmin 3, TMS#FE, and Super Mario 3D World on the Switch. Then I will have very little reason to keep the Wii U around.
the GOAT.

@ me haters

latest

EixN.gif
 

ACL

Member
Nov 18, 2017
1,304
Sure, but cart production is expensive so they would have to take a big risk. I dont think they made any missteps here. They first wanted to see the inital reaction.

Sure, I even agree to some degree. But we are talking about SquareEnix a very big publisher. Taking a small bet like ordering at least the same amount as Bravely Default sold first week, someting like 140k-180k, wouldn't have put them at a big financial risk by any means, at worst they wouldn't have needed to put any new order. Especially knowing how long it takes to receive your new order and considering the very positive reception of the demos, it's not like they couldn't have made a better choice.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Sure, but cart production is expensive so they would have to take a big risk. I dont think they made any missteps here. They first wanted to see the inital reaction.
According to ZhugeEX, the game carts only start to eat into margins compared to PS4/XB1 Bluray discs at above 8GB:


Not getting enough carts ready is not due to their cost, it due to a complete lack of faith in OT doing over 100k FW.
 

CeroMiedo

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,337
2017 - Xenoblade Chronicles 2
2018 - Torna The Golden Country
2019 - Xenoblade Chronicles X
2020 - Xenoblade Chronicles 3
2021 - Xenoblade Chronicles 3 DLC
2022 - Xenoblade Chronicles X2
2023 - Xenoblade Chronicles Remake


TOTAL GLOBAL SATURATION
And then people will complain about nintendo milking the game with yearly release
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
100k+ FW games don't raise hardware in a significant way unless they have bundles or cater to a completely different and faithful (to the genre/franchise) audience.
 

K Samedi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,990
According to ZhugeEX, the game carts only start to eat into margins compared to PS4/XB1 Bluray discs at above 8GB:


Not getting enough carts ready is not due to their cost, it due to a complete lack of faith in OT doing over 100k FW.

Ok nice to know that, yet I have a feeling other factors could be involved, like cart manufacturing limits and with the way Switch software is selling I have a feeling the production lines are already running at full capacity so ordering more could have lead to a higher cost initially. I remember there being stock problems for a lot of Switch titles.
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,500
Because I can add, and the numbers in the top 10 alone exceed the numbers he provided.

I really am trying hard not the be an asshole (though you are making it hard) but if you are gonna accuse people of not being able to add maybe you should read what they actually wrote.

He said last week. He very plainly said last week.

Just the first two games exceed the numbers they gave "overall".
Not sure where they got the numbers, maybe last week's? I'd have to check

You too.
 

Lord Brady

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
8,392
User Banned (3 days): Engaging in console wars across the thread, history of antagonising users
I really am trying hard not the be an asshole (though you are making it hard) but if you are gonna accuse people of not being able to add maybe you should read what they actually wrote.

He said last week. He very plainly said last week.
So basically he looked at the numbers this week and said, "buh buh but last week!". Never mind that it was also a complete slaughter last week.
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,172
I remember there being stock problems for a lot of Switch titles.
That was more on retailers not planning and not stocking up on switch titles during the holiday season starting with Xenoblade than it was switch manufacturing lagging behind on product.

Also, higher cost on a bigger initial shipment based on full capacity production lines? It doesn't work like that. Square is only publishing it in Japan, the bulk of everything else was on Nintendo worldwide. Nintendo wouldn't have a problem lending a hand on anything manufacturing-wise.
 

ACL

Member
Nov 18, 2017
1,304
with the way Switch software is selling I have a feeling the production lines are already running at full capacity so ordering more could have lead to a higher cost initially.

I would rather argue that it makes it more difficult to make new orders in short notice and therefore not a good idea to play it too safe.
 

Boiled Goose

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
9,999
It's still a problem if you aren't making the money you're supposed to.

Nintendo has a 20M hardware forecast to achieve this Fiscal Year.

A price cut would result in more hardware sold, but more profit? Not a chance. If I'm Nintendo, I'm not cutting the price till 19. If I need a boost, temporary deal or bundle for holidays.
 

Ninferno

Member
Nov 6, 2017
573
You have to question what kind of low ass expectation SE had for Octopath. Like, Bravely Default did 140k first week on the 3DS; Octopath is launching on a trending platform entering its prime time, gathered much more excitement before launch compared to Bravely Default (which nobody talked about before launch besides its weird title that doesn't make any sense) and you only ordered 110 ~ 120k for its first shipment?
 
Last edited:

K Samedi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,990
That was more on retailers not planning and not stocking up on switch titles during the holiday season starting with Xenoblade than it was switch manufacturing lagging behind on product.

Also, higher cost on a bigger initial shipment based on full capacity production lines? It doesn't work like that. Square is only publishing it in Japan, the bulk of everything else was on Nintendo worldwide.
Ordering emergency shipments from a full production line costs more so please enlighten me if it works differently here.

I would rather argue that it makes it more difficult to make new orders in short notice and therefore not a good idea to play it too safe.

That could be the case, but we really don't know. I think they did a pretty significant shipment. Probably 1 million. They might have want to have a half million copies lying around but we don't know how that affects the price if the production lines are already running at full capacity.
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,500
So basically he looked at the numbers this week and said, "buh buh but last week!".

No. He looked at your post and provided you a factual post that shows even though Nintendo wass dominating the top of the charts with the Switch last week, total software sales for the week were only marginally better than the PS4. This emphasizes that the PS4 is still showing life and under the chart growth on software.

Basically he knows what he is talking about and you obviously don't.

Never mind that it was also a complete slaughter last week.

It very clearly was not. The numbers say otherwise. This ignores the fact that you're accusing people of not being able to add while apparently not reading.
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,172
Ordering emergency shipments from a full production line costs more so please enlighten me if it works differently here.
Because I'd be more inclined to believe production wasn't in such a state that Square Enix wouldn't be able to get more cartridges ready if they're working directly with Nintendo everywhere else. They all had an idea of what it could sell eventually, but undershot how fast it could get there.

There is no sense of emergency when you're allocating your first wave shipment.
 

Deleted member 19702

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,722
I hope, with Octopath's performances, it kills the cynicism and dumb excuses from some third-parties still skeptical to support Switch, release multiplats with parity and even try more exclusive efforts.
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,617
Yeah it's weird to see people jumping right to price cut. Nintendo hasn't even gotten to the bundled stage yet.
I guess since even the Splatoon bundle out next week isn't really a discount we're probably not going to see a price drop this year. I think that's a mistake but, alright.
A bundle at the very least at $299.99/yen equivalent needs to happen soon, I think.

I think fall 2019 is way too late for a price drop, so if there's no price drop this holiday in preparation for Pokémon and Smash, when would they do it?
 

Lord Brady

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
8,392
No. He looked at your post and provided you a factual post that shows even though Nintendo wass dominating the top of the charts with the Switch last week, total software sales for the week were only marginally better than the PS4. This emphasizes that the PS4 is still showing life and under the chart growth on software.

Basically he knows what he is talking about and you obviously don't.



It very clearly was not. The numbers say otherwise.
What do those numbers say? They say Sony sold a bunch of discounted titles from the lower depths of the sales charts. Again, meaningless without revenue numbers attached to them. And even then, they still sold fewer by thousands. It's hilarious that you're defending his obvious attempt to deflect what's actually going on in Japan.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
You have to question what kind of low ass expectation SE had for Octopath. Like, Bravely Default did 140k first week on the 3DS; Octopath is launching on a trending platform at its prime time, gathered much more excitement before launch compared to Bravely Default (which nobody talked about before launch besides its weird title that doesn't make any sense) and you only ordered 110 ~ 120k for its first shipment?

What?

3DS was a pretty hot platform back then (it was almost at 8m units!) + Bravely Default had some hype given its constant presence during Nintendo Directs (it was also featured in the big September Nintendo conference where MH4 was unveiled) + Bravely Default also got some well-received demo.
 
Oct 26, 2017
20,440
Xenoblade X was too in-between Destiny and an actually good JRPG to be that compelling.

It feels like a game that should actually be shared world co-op.

And X has way too many static cutscenes with extremely dull dialog.