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Media Create Sales: Week 29, 2018 (Jul 16 - Jul 22)

Oct 26, 2017
4,884
0
I mean, the issue with Arms does come down to that EPD can only make like 5 major games at a time and it's... questionable whether one of those 5 should be Arms.

And I'm not sure about the growth possibilities either.

Maybe Bamco will want to make Arms 2 though.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,766
0
I mean, the issue with Arms does come down to that EPD can only make like 5 major games at a time and it's... questionable whether one of those 5 should be Arms.

And I'm not sure about the growth possibilities either.

Maybe Bamco will want to make Arms 2 though.
Nah, EPD can make way more games than that. It's more the case of any Switch titles they were working on prior to the system's launch were strictly for the first year. Anything they have in development now only started development after the console was a proven hit. 2019 onward will see much more EPD projects, possibly more than last year.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,203
0
Italy
People are really underestimating the impact of POKEMON and SMASH during holidays. Switch will fly off the shelves from November onwards.

There is a reason why they stopped giving meaningful supports for the game and only focused on small online events
This has been debunked many times. The supported the game for months. The fact that they stopped giving the game meaningful contents doesn't mean they are not satisfied with sales.
 
Nov 23, 2017
6,570
0
weird that they're sticking with 20m for now.
maybe if it's down next quarter they'll adjust it.

or pokemon and smash will do something crazy
If Q1-Q2 and Q4 stay 1:1 (or close) to last year, to make the 20M mark, Q3 (holidays) will need to sell 12M units.
its hard, but not an impossible number. they have never sell that amount in 1 Q, but they have had 4 times they have sold 11+M units (DS 2007 to 2009) and Wii 2009
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,504
0
Japanese sales (Media Create), between Week 14 (Apr 02 - Apr 08, 2018) to Week 26 (Jun 25 - Jul 01, 2018) - 532,978
Hmm okay, it feels like they are absorbing some of the shipments from previous quarters, as if they are trying to limit the number of current model Switch without facing supply issues.

If I were to bet, I would say that they might release another model soon without the SoC exploit.
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,688
0
If Q1-Q2 and Q4 stay 1:1 (or close) to last year, to make the 20M mark, Q3 (holidays) will need to sell 12M units.
its hard, but not an impossible number. they have never sell that amount in 1 Q, but they have had 4 times they have sold 11+M units (DS 2007 to 2009) and Wii 2009
shouldn't they expect Q4 to be a lot higher though. To take some pressure off Q3?

Smash and Pokemon will still be around, and maybe a notable game will hit before march.
What was Q4 for Switch this year again?
 
Nov 23, 2017
6,570
0
shouldn't they expect Q4 to be a lot higher though. To take some pressure off Q3?

Smash and Pokemon will still be around, and maybe a notable game will hit before march.
What was Q4 for Switch this year again?
im going by the "what would be the hardest scenario" it being, Q3 carrying everything, realistically I do expect Q4 to be better (more games nad more carry over from Q3)
Q4 was 2.9M units too

 
Oct 25, 2017
12,688
0
im going by the "what would be the hardest scenario" it being, Q3 carrying everything, realistically I do expect Q4 to be better (more games nad more carry over from Q3)
Q4 was 2.9M units too

gotcha.
hm, gonna be difficult.
even if Q4 does do a little better and adds an extra million or so, Q3 still has to do like 11m.
 
Nov 23, 2017
6,570
0
gotcha.
hm, gonna be difficult.
even if Q4 does do a little better and adds an extra million or so, Q3 still has to do like 11m.
Nintendo has a few wild cards they can pull, like say holidays only price cut (like Sony did) or officially release in China, your are on a partnership with Tencent, fucking us it
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,026
0
ARMS has a whole lot of room for improvement from a gameplay perspective, and Yabuki has already gone on record saying he wants to make a sequel. If Yabuki wants a sequel soon, Nintendo will let him do it. The fact that the game is no longer getting updates leads me to believe that ARMS 2 is coming much sooner than anyone expects.
I don't know which is furthest from reality, this or 3DS that Nintendo would keep supporting because it remains very strong.
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,052
0
weird that they're sticking with 20m for now.
maybe if it's down next quarter they'll adjust it.

or pokemon and smash will do something crazy
Well there's also a hostile investor that's betting hard against Nintendo too. I suspect Nintendo knows they're likely not hitting 20 mill, but right now is not the right time to say that.

It would just overshadow the positive news they have for now (good software sales, solid operating profit growth) and scare away investors.
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,273
0
Spain
1) ARMS has been a success

2) There will be no ARMS 2 in Switch, just as there will not be Splatoon 3

They are not exclusive things
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,748
0
22
The Netherlands
Anyone want to talk 3ds performance? It's down 62% YoY (0.36M vs. 0.95M), and there is no pokémon title releasing to buoy sales during the holiday period, so imo they will fall well short of their 4M forecast for the FY.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,386
0
I think they will do an appealing bundle or price promotion during Q3 to hit the 20 million target.

They have a wide range of people to sell to. Stuff like Xenoblade Expansion, Octopath Traveler, Darksouls, Zelda, and possibly Fire Emblem in Q4, Labo, Kirby, Mario, Smash, Pokemon, Mario Pary hit a very wide demographic. So massive explosive sales during Q3 would not really surprise me to be honest.
 
Oct 25, 2017
11,970
0
Absolutely 0 chance of ARMS getting a sequel before the next system.

Also, 3DS is dead and I hope no one blames the recent 3DS games for their poor sales. It's the system's fault and Nintendo made a wrong move by not porting everything to Switch.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,531
0
So what do you guys think Octopath could have sold 1st and 2nd week in Square Enix shipped a proper amount?

What is the number they should have targeted?
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,052
0
I don't know much about the coporate world but that sounds kinda shady even illegal
There's nothing illegal about that companies do that sort of thing all the time. Sales projections are not some legal binding contract that they have to live up to, companies miss some projections all the time, hell Nintendo basically missed every single Wii U and 3DS projection they ever made, lol.

The fiscal year still has 3 more quarters left in it, they don't have to announce jack shit right now if they don't want to, they can revise the forecast at multiple other points.

It would make zero sense to do announce that now though, it would just overshadow the good news of beating operating profit forecasts and give jittery investors something to grasp on with a hostile investor apparently making a multi-million dollar bet against Nintendo.

Revision downwards is better left to after Christmas, they can highlight strong holiday sales, likely sky high Pokemon LG and Smash numbers, plus maybe Mario Kart Mobile breaks out like gangbusters. 20 million was always kind of an overly ambitious number, even the Wii did not sell that in its 2nd fiscal year, neither did the DS.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,024
0
SWITCH: PHYSICAL GAMES (170 games)

[UPDATE]
- November 22: Robotics;Notes DaSH
https://gematsu.com/2018/07/roboticsnotes-dash-for-ps4-switch-launches-november-22-in-japan




2017 (52 games)

WINTER (8 games)

MARCH (8 games)

March 03: 1-2-Switch
March 03: Disgaea 5 Complete
March 03: Dragon Quest Heroes I & II
March 03: I am Setsuna
March 03: Nobunaga's Ambition: Sphere of Influence with Power-Up Kit
March 03: Puyo Puyo Tetris
March 03: Super Bomberman R
March 03: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild


SPRING (6 games)

MARCH (1 game)

March 30: Romance of the Three Kingdoms 13 with Power-Up Kit

APRIL (2 games)

April 20: Minna de Wai Wai! Spelunker
April 28: Mario Kart 8 Deluxe

MAY (1 game)

May 26: Ultra Street Fighter II: The Final Challengers

JUNE (2 games)

June 01: Seiken Densetsu Collection
June 16: Arms


SUMMER (13 games)

JUNE (1 game)

June 29: LEGO City Undercover

JULY (3 games)

July 20: Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star
July 20: Cars 3: Driven to Win
July 21: Splatoon 2

AUGUST (4 games)

August 24: One Piece: Unlimited World Red Deluxe
August 25: Monster Hunter XX
August 31: Nights of Azure 2: Bride of the New Moon
August 31: Azure Striker Gunvolt: Striker Pack

SEPTEMBER (5 games)

September 07: Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2
September 14: Champion Jockey Special
September 14: Winning Post 8 2017
September 21: Dragon Quest X: All in One Package
September 22: Pokken Tournament DX


FALL (25 games)

SEPTEMBER (2 games)

September 28: Fire Emblem Warriors
September 29: FIFA 18

OCTOBER (4 games)

October 12: Lost Sphear
October 17: NBA 2K18
October 19: The LEGO Ninjago Movie Video Game
October 27: Super Mario Odyssey

NOVEMBER (11 games: excluded explorer and re:r collection)

November 09: Sonic Forces
November 09: Monopoly for Nintendo Switch
November 09: Dynasty Warriors 8: Empires
November 09: Samurai Warriors: Sanada Maru
November 09: Warriors Orochi 3: Ultimate
November 10: Snipperclips Plus
November 16: Dragon Quest X: 5000
November 22: LEGO Worlds
November 23: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild: Explorer's Edition
November 30: Resident Evil: Revelations
November 30: Resident Evil: Revelations 2
November 30: Resident Evil: Revelations Collection
November 30: Nobunaga's Ambition: Taishi

DECEMBER (8 games)

December 01: Xenoblade Chronicles 2
December 07: Sumikko Gurashi: Sumikko Park e Youkoso
December 07: L.A. Noire
December 14: Farming Simulator
December 14: Asonde Shogi ga Tsuyokunaru! Ginsei Shogi DX
December 14: Gear.Club Unlimited
December 21: One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 Deluxe
December 21: Atelier Lydie & Suelle: The Alchemists and the Mysterious Paintings
2018 (117 games)

WINTER (20 games)

JANUARY (2 games)

January 18: Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle
January 25: Voez

FEBRUARY (8 games: excluded bayonetta climax edition)

February 01: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
February 01: LEGO Marvel Super Heroes 2
February 08: Gal Metal!
February 08: Cave Story+
February 17: Bayonetta
February 17: Bayonetta 2
February 17: Bayonetta Climax Edition
February 22: Gotouchi Tetsudou for Nintendo Switch!!
February 22: Rayman Legends: Definitive Edition

MARCH (10 games)

March 01: Dragon Quest Builders
March 01: Doom
March 08: Your Four Knight Princesses Training Story
March 15: Attack on Titan 2
March 15: Winning Post 8 2018
March 15: Gal Gun 2
March 16: Kirby Star Allies
March 22: Hyrule Warriors: Definitive Edition
March 22: PriPara All Idol Perfect Stage!
March 22: Monster Energy Supercross: The Official Videogame


SPRING (25 games)

MARCH (2 games)
March 29: Ao no Kanata no Four Rhythm
March 29: Happy Birthdays

APRIL (9 games)

April 12: The Snack World: TreJarers Gold
April 19: Neo Atlas 1469
April 19: Portal Knights
April 19: Wonderboy: The Dragon's Trap
April 20: Nintendo Labo Toy-Con 01: Variety Kit
April 20: Nintendo Labo Toy-Con 02: Robot Kit
April 26: SD Gundam G Generation Genesis
April 26: Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm Legacy
April 26: Cube Creator X

MAY (7 games)

May 03: Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze
May 24: Mega Man Legacy Collection 1+2
May 24: Rabi x Rabi: Puzzle Out Stories
May 24: Urban Trial Playground
May 31: BlazBlue: Cross Tag Battle
May 31: Liar Princess and the Blind Prince
May 31: Shantae: Half-Genie Hero - Ultimate Edition


JUNE (7 games)

June 07: Little Nightmares
June 08: Sushi Striker: The Way of Sushido
June 14: GOD WARS: Great War of Japanese Mythology
June 21: The Misshitsu Kara no Dasshutsu: 35 Fateful Enigmas
June 21: THE Mahjong
June 21: Minecraft
June 22: Mario Tennis Ace


SUMMER (46 games)

JUNE (2 games)

June 28: Ys VIII : Lacrimosa of Dana
June 28: Shiin (Death Mark)

JULY (16 games, Rockman X Anniversary Collection 1&2 excluded)
July 12: Shining Resonance Refrain
July 13: Octopath Traveler
July 13: Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker
July 19: Sonic Mania Plus
July 19: Taiko Drum Master: Nintendo Switch Version!
July 19: Closed Nightmare
July 19: Touhou Genso Wanderer: Reloaded
July 26: Higurashi no Naku Koro ni Hou
July 26: Rockman X Anniversary Collection 1
July 26: Rockman X Anniversary Collection 2
July 26: Rockman X Anniversary Collection 1&2
July 26: Dragon Quest X All in One Package
July 26: Rocket League
July 26: Makai Senki Disgaea Refine
July 26: Waku Waku Doubutsu Land
July 26: Daitoshokan no Hitsujikai: Library Party
July 26: Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus

AUGUST (15 games)
August 02: SaGa : Scarlet Grace - Hiiro no Yabô
August 02: Code of Princess EX
August 02: Pro Yakyuu Famista Evolution
August 02: LEGO: The Incredibles
August 09: Okami HD
August 09: Waku Waku Sweets: Amai Okashi ga Dekiru kana?
August 09: Jake Hunter Detective Story: Prism of Eyes
August 09: Darkest Dungeon
August 09: Layton’s Mystery Journey: Katrielle and the Millionaires Conspiracy DX
August 23: My Hero Academia: One’s Justice
August 30: Psyvariar Delta
August 30: Little Dragons Cafe
August 30: Tennis World Tour
August 30: Blade Strangers
August 30: World End Syndrome

SEPTEMBER (13 games)

September 06: Hakuoki Shinkai: Fuukaden
September 06: SNK Heroines Tag Team Frenzy
September 11: NBA 2K19
September 13: Code: Realize ~Bouquet of Rainbows~
September 14: Nintendo Labo Toy-Con 03: Drive Kit
September 15: Undertale
September 20: STEINS; GATE ELITE
September 20: ニル・アドミラリの天秤 色ドリ撫子 (Nil Admirari no Tenbin: Teito Genwaku Kitan)
September 20: Atelier Rorona: The Alchemist of Arland DX
September 20: Atelier Totori: The Adventurer of Arland DX
September 20: Atelier Meruru: The Apprentice of Arland DX
September 20: Dai Senryaku Perfect 4.0
September 21: Xenoblade Chronicles 2: Torna: The Golden Country


FALL (26 games)

SEPTEMBER (9 games)
September 25/28: FIFA 19
September 27: Dragon Ball FighterZ
September 27: Warriors Orochi 3
September 27: The World Ends with You: Final Remix
September 27: NORN9 LOFN
September 27: Labyrinth of Refrain : Coven of Dusk
September 27: Valkyria Chronicles 4
September 27: MotoGP 18
September 27: Dies irae ~Amantes amentes~ For Nintendo Switch

OCTOBER (11 games)
October 04: WORK × WORK
October 04: Sumikko Gurashu: Atsumare! Sumikko Town
October 04: Rockman 11: Gear of Destiny!!
October 05: Super Mario Party
October 18: Crash Bandicoot N.Sane Trilogy
October 25: LEGO DC Super-Villains
October 25: Beyblade Burst: Battle Zero
October 25: Street Fighter 30th Anniversary Collection International
October 25: Memories Off -Innocent Fille-
October 25: Nora to Oujo to Noraneko Heart HD Version
October 25: Yomawari: The Long Night Collection

NOVEMBER (5 games)
November 01: Nelke and the Legendary Alchemists
November 08: Pikachin-Kit: Game de Pirameki Daisakusen
November 16: Pokémon Let’s Go, Pikachu
November 16: Pokémon Let’s Go, Eevee
November 22: Robotics;Notes DaSH

DECEMBER (1 game)
December 07: Super Smash Bros. Special

2019 (1 game)

WINTER (1 game)

FEBRUARY (1 game)
February 28: Darius: Cozmic Collection
 
Apr 6, 2018
437
0
There's nothing illegal about that companies do that sort of thing all the time. Sales projections are not some legal binding contract that they have to live up to, companies miss some projections all the time, hell Nintendo basically missed every single Wii U and 3DS projection they ever made, lol.

The fiscal year still has 3 more quarters left in it, they don't have to announce jack shit right now if they don't want to, they can revise the forecast at multiple other points.

It would make zero sense to do announce that now though, it would just overshadow the good news of beating operating profit forecasts and give jittery investors something to grasp on with a hostile investor apparently making a multi-million dollar bet against Nintendo.

Revision is better left to after Christmas, they can highlight strong holiday sales, likely sky high Pokemon LG and Smash numbers, plus maybe Mario Kart Mobile breaks out like gangbusters.
Of course missing a sales prediction isn't illegal but purposely lying to investors about your expectations for a product is pretty shady
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,052
0
Of course missing a sales prediction isn't illegal but purposely lying to investors about your expectations for a product is pretty shady
Standing by a projection is not lying. It's not even theoretically impossible for Nintendo to hit that ... if Pokemon LG can successfully woo a lot of Pokemon Go players to spend $300 on a Switch, well bingo Nintendo can say "no problemo". Companies do all sorts of crazy crap with how they spin things to investors all the time. Case in point, Microsoft won't even disclose exact revenue from their XBox division alone. That's way more egregious.

That's also why many people just hire stock advisors to handle their portfolio, because you really need to know your shit when you're investing in a company.
 
Nov 2, 2017
5,456
0
LOL. People now saying ARMS didn't sell well. It's still selling and has amazing numbers for a 3d 1v1 fighter. I'd like to have seen some predictions ahead of time.

Also, claims that arms stopped receiving support because of sales is just made up BS. If you actually look at the content, it's quite clear that the game feels complete now. This was the planned content. Adding more free stuff doesn't make sense. 2 more characters won't suddenly boost sales further.

Finally. Arms sequel in 2019?? People are legitimately clueless when it comes to Nintendo aren't they. We're not getting a sequel on Switch.
 
Switch Hardware may be "weak", Software definitely isn't. Based on my own calculations, it had crazy attach rate during Q1: 9.5 (17.96 million games / 1.88 million consoles). That bumped up the LTD attach rate to 4.4, +0.6 in just one quarter.

Btw, iunteresting data:



A shame they don't also share regional data for those.
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,504
0
Switch Hardware may be "weak", Software definitely isn't. Based on my own calculations, it had crazy attach rate during Q1: 9.5 (17.96 million games / 1.88 million consoles). That bumped up the LTD attach rate to 4.4, +0.6 in just one quarter.
Minecraft could have played a role along the other indies that got a physical release.
 
Oct 26, 2017
795
0
Yeah, I wonder how these work. When they got the physical release they add the total digital in this quarter? Or don’t add them at all, or what?
 
Yeah, I wonder how these work. When they got the physical release they add the total digital in this quarter? Or don’t add them at all, or what?
Why would they add it?

Minecraft is a special case because all owners of the original version got the new one for free. Not sure if those were counted, though.

That's not the case for indie games getting late physical release (not to mention sales volumes are too low and negligible). For those, pretty sure only retail was counted.
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,026
0
Anyone want to talk 3ds performance? It's down 62% YoY (0.36M vs. 0.95M), and there is no pokémon title releasing to buoy sales during the holiday period, so imo they will fall well short of their 4M forecast for the FY.
What is there to talk. Nintendo overestimated 3DS lasting power and moving away from it quickly, it's not like there are any big releases left for it.

Sushi Striker and Captain Toad were ported to Switch and if it was easy Luigi's Mansion would move there in a heartbeat.