Media Create Sales: Week 29, 2018 (Jul 16 - Jul 22)

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Chris1964

Chris1964

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Oct 25, 2017
3,102
So I know this isn’t partaking to Japan, but what do you guys think Mario Tennis Aces sold in the US now we got it shipped 1.4 Million in a week? I’m thinking 400k in my opinion.
1,4m is the initial shipment and if Japan is indication it will last a few weeks until it's sold.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,394
If Mario Maker arrives, I really hope it's a sequel that adds a bunch of things to the editor but more importantly rethinks the online aspect. And maybe a bunch of Nintendo designed courses like on 3DS.

A dream would be Super Mario Maker World, create your own succession of levels with an world map editor akin to Super Mario Run.
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,799
Let's see what side people are on.

Does FE launch before March 31?

going no personally. I feel it's a fair bit off, and some other game will be announced for Q1.
 
Nov 2, 2017
5,530
If Mario Maker arrives, I really hope it's a sequel that adds a bunch of things to the editor but more importantly rethinks the online aspect. And maybe a bunch of Nintendo designed courses like on 3DS.

A dream would be Super Mario Maker World, create your own succession of levels with an world map editor akin to Super Mario Run.
You know what would sell insane numbers?

A new 2d mario with new artsyle that includes mario maker.
The mario maker part would include the new artstyle and mechanics and also have a better online component. Gives me an old school SMB duck hunt combo feeling.
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,799
What is there to talk. Nintendo overestimated 3DS lasting power and moving away from it quickly, it's not like there are any big releases left for it.

Sushi Striker and Captain Toad were ported to Switch and if it was easy Luigi's Mansion would move there in a heartbeat.
add another chapter in Mario rpgs being screwed over


Nintendo should release a primer on how to kill two successful spinoff series
you won't believe #10
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,394
Let's see what side people are on.

Does FE launch before March 31?

going no personally. I feel it's a fair bit off, and some other game will be announced for Q1.
Seeing I'm quite shocked how poor it looked at E3 (visually, otherwise it looks awesome), I'm hoping it's as late as possible.
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,799
If Nintendo needs it for hitting targets it will in March. Otherwise it's heading for Golden Week / Easter.
I don't feel like it would push the HW needle that much. But can sell a lot.

I'm thinking the latter tho


edit: I think either LM3 or something like pikmin could be a surprise Q1 game. Or 2D mario port of course
 
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Oct 26, 2017
4,914
If Nintendo needs it for hitting targets it will in March. Otherwise it's heading for Golden Week / Easter.
I would hope Nintendo wouldn't rush out Fire Emblem (because it looks really rough right now to the point of where they had to shove the camera up to point at the sky to hide the framerate) and I doubt rushing it out would help them hit targets.

It looked amazing.
The ground textures looked horrible as did all the NPCs.
 

ASarafanov

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Oct 31, 2017
596
Japan
function scrollToId(selector, offset = 60) { window.scroll(0, document.querySelector(selector).offsetTop - offset); return false } The ground textures looked horrible as did all the NPCs.
It's a japanese game with a mid-tier budget. There's a lot of "horrible" textures in games like VC4 as well. Overall FE looked awesome, and no one will care about those "horrible textures" after the release. Biggest game in the franchise is coming.
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,914
It's a japanese game with a mid-tier budget. There's a lot of "horrible" textures in games like VC4 as well. Overall FE looked awesome, and no one gonna care about those "horrible textures" after the release. Biggest game in the franchise is coming.
It's a Japanese game whose mobile spinoff just made $500M.

VC4 is destined to do terribly everywhere and just has PS3 tier graphics, Fire Emblem Switch should sell 5m units, it shouldn't look as bad graphically as it does.
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,799
It looked amazing visually.
it was pretty ugly.
and drab. Character models looked good at least as well as the castle. But the battle environment needs serious work.

which was disappointing since IntSys is one of the Nintendo devs that had an HD game released last gen.

And that game was Color Splash which was one of the best looking Wii U games. I assume they're maybe different teams(?) but still. Disappointing.
 
Oct 26, 2017
7,325
Fire Emblem should sell 5m units? More than any srpg ever? There’s only like 3 JRPG series that can even consistently reach those numbers globally?
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,799
VC4 is destined to do terribly everywhere and just has PS3 tier graphics, Fire Emblem Switch should sell 5m units, it shouldn't look as bad graphically as it does.
uh should?
5m is maybe possible, but that's the highest of its hopes. And if it really broke out for some reason.

no way in the world is that a "should"

It'll be the best selling FE, but people shouldn't forget the previous high is 1.84 million.

And this is still a anime SRPG at the end of the day.

Fire Emblem should sell 5m units? More than any srpg ever? There’s only like 3 JRPG series that can even consistently reach those numbers globally?
yeah, makes little sense.
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,942
What is there to talk. Nintendo overestimated 3DS lasting power and moving away from it quickly, it's not like there are any big releases left for it.

Sushi Striker and Captain Toad were ported to Switch and if it was easy Luigi's Mansion would move there in a heartbeat.
I do wonder if Captain Toad Switch/3DS started as a Switch project or a 3DS project.
 
Oct 25, 2017
874
So I know this isn’t partaking to Japan, but what do you guys think Mario Tennis Aces sold in the US now we got it shipped 1.4 Million in a week? I’m thinking 400k in my opinion.
Well since this covers two weeks it should be pretty large no?
NPD June period covers June 3 to July 7
So it's 3 weeks of tracking, launch week was a Thursday and digital should be pretty good due to Gold Coins bonus. Nintendo doesn't share digital with NPD, but its safe to say that even with good digital sales Mario Tennis Aces is unlikely to sell 400K digitally, so we are talking physical shipment of over 1M until the June 30th WW. The initial shipment in Japan was at most 200K, that would probably lead to a shipment for NA of around 400K, so it pretty much depends on the sell-through. In Japan the first shipment sold out by the second week but we don't know if MTA had such strong sales in the US.
Last year Splatoon 2 launched in July and sold 332K physical. If Mario Tennis Aces does 400K physical even with three weeks of sales it would be a the best opening for a Switch game this year in the US and the 4th biggest opening on the platform since launch.

The other thing I'm seeing is extremely strong sales for DKTF we know that in Japan it didn't have more than 200K shipment for this quarter so that means that 1.2M were sold in other territories/digital. I don't think DKTF will sell more than 300K in Japan this year but it should still pass 2M based on strong sales else where.

Both games are games that Nintendo will drop the price on later in the year on the eShop. I'd expect we see 33% off for both on several occasions in different territories. I'd expect discounts to start driving strong digital growth YoY especially once the Paid Online rolls-out and there is additional discounts for those that subscribe. Which owner wouldn't buy Nintendo's first party titles for Christmas if they can get 50% off. Personally that's the type of thing that makes me think that Nintendo will greatly surpass their software target for the year and one of the reasons people would be subbed to their $20 per year paid online.
 

ASarafanov

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Oct 31, 2017
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Chris1964

Chris1964

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Oct 25, 2017
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I do wonder if Captain Toad Switch/3DS started as a Switch project or a 3DS project.
3DS port needed much more work from Switch. A Sushi Striker scenario is the obvious but even we assume a dual release was the original plan, 3DS work certainly didn't pay.
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,799
It will because they will need something to hit the 20 millions target
luigi's mansion 3. book it.
along with 600k octopath

Your numbers are outdated. FE Awakening sold 1.9 million as of march 2017 https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2017/170201_2e.pdf Now it surely passed 2 million.

Biggest japanese srpg of all time is FF Tactics (PS1, 2,4 million, released 20 years ago). FE Switch will destroy that number.
oh, got it from Celine's thread.
maybe he/she can update it if there's some new info
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,942
Sonic Mania Plus at #29 and #41 is depressing. Why u no like 2D Sonic, Japan? I know the Megadrive was 3rd place in Japan, but still.

The original eShop release barely entered the Top 20 as well.
 
Oct 25, 2017
11,641
Brazil
It's a Japanese game whose mobile spinoff just made $500M.

VC4 is destined to do terribly everywhere and just has PS3 tier graphics, Fire Emblem Switch should sell 5m units, it shouldn't look as bad graphically as it does.
Lmao, what? Fire Emblem 5 million? If it reaches 3 million it's going to be lucky.

With how big ARMS, Mario Tennis, and Kirby debuted in 2 weeks. Fire Emblem going for close to 2 Million initial shipment?
I think 1.5m is more doable than 2m
 
Oct 26, 2017
7,325
I do wonder if Captain Toad Switch/3DS started as a Switch project or a 3DS project.
NST did the 3DS port while EPD Tokyo handled Switch inhouse. I’d assume Switch was the lead port based on the new levels.

Would’ve been neat if they’d have let NST design their own levels based off 3D Land instead.
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,861
The Netherlands
Looking at Octopath, the amazon Japan stock didn't last very long: currently a 1-2 day backorder. In terms of ranking, it looks to have been doing rather strongly: it's #1 on the ranking, above the soon-to-be-released EOX and above Smash. I'm definitely curious to see the numbers tomorrow and the week after.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,740
UK/FR
Fire Emblem and Mario Maker will be the next franchises that will see big growth on Switch.
3-4m is a good forecast for Fire Emblem Switch.
That sounds like a really big growth. While Awakening got to 2M and Heroes is doing well, didn't Fates sell less too? Three Houses seems more "tame" (for lack of a better word) than those three so far, wouldn't a 2.5/3M max be more reasonable? That'd still be really impressive in its own right.
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,799
That sounds like a really big growth. While Awakening got to 2M and Heroes is doing well, didn't Fates sell less too? Three Houses seems more "tame" (for lack of a better word) than those three so far, wouldn't a 2.5/3M max be more reasonable? That'd still be really impressive in its own right.
depends on how good it is imo.
if it's good, 3m and at max 4m seems okay.
 
Oct 25, 2017
11,971
That sounds like a really big growth. While Awakening got to 2M and Heroes is doing well, didn't Fates sell less too? Three Houses seems more "tame" (for lack of a better word) than those three so far, wouldn't a 2.5/3M max be more reasonable? That'd still be really impressive in its own right.
I think aligned Fates did better and just fell off because the 3DS active userbase died really fast.

Three Houses should do 3M if it has good reception and follows the Switch growth pattern.
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,659
It looked amazing visually.
It looked surprisingly poor for a new Switch game. Muted colors, CG is now low frame rate when awakening got it right the first time, ugly environments.
Maybe they’ll show massive improvements by spring next year but it’s not too promising since it was due this year
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,799
It looked surprisingly poor for a new Switch game. Muted colors, CG is now low frame rate when awakening got it right the first time, ugly environments.
Maybe they’ll show massive improvements by spring next year but it’s not too promising since it was due this year
that CG when it looked like some war flashback being like 10 fps looked like a stylistic choice.
The CG with the girl singing looked normal.

I doubt the game's graphics will improve much by next year. Unless it's a May/June game, then it could improve a little imo.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,740
UK/FR
I think aligned Fates did better and just fell off because the 3DS active userbase died really fast.

Three Houses should do 3M if it has good reception and follows the Switch growth pattern.
Fates sold faster also due to Awakening having a lot of stock issues in the US.
 
Nov 16, 2017
954
I think people are a little too hard on FE. The only thing that looked poor is the IQ which I'm sure will be fixed - otherwise it looked completely fine for what is an mid-budget SRPG.
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,659
that CG when it looked like some war flashback being like 10 fps looked like a stylistic choice.
The CG with the girl singing looked normal.

I doubt the game's graphics will improve much by next year. Unless it's a May/June game, then it could improve a little imo.
I know it’s a stylistic choice, but it’s a garbage one. If it’s just for a flash back then I guess it would be fine, have to wait and see.
Hope it’s good since I really liked awakening but haven’t been drawn to it since
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,740
UK/FR
I think people are a little too hard on FE. The only thing that looked poor is the IQ which I'm sure will be fixed - otherwise it looked completely fine for what is an mid-budget SRPG.
Personally I'm really happy with how it looks, but then again I loved Echoes and some people think Fates was fantastic.
 
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Chris1964

Chris1964

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Oct 25, 2017
3,102
That sounds like a really big growth. While Awakening got to 2M and Heroes is doing well, didn't Fates sell less too? Three Houses seems more "tame" (for lack of a better word) than those three so far, wouldn't a 2.5/3M max be more reasonable? That'd still be really impressive in its own right.
50%+ is typical growth from 3DS to Switch.
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,347
User banned (72 hours): Trolling, thread-whining, inflammatory drive-by posting, history of similar behavior.
So this thread means very little in the bigger picture if we're looking at almost 2:1 global sales PS4/Switch Q1. Shame as a lot of people seem to handle this as a fulltime job really around here. :p