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Media Create Sales: Week 29, 2018 (Jul 16 - Jul 22)

Oct 26, 2017
4,859
0
I think people are a little too hard on FE. The only thing that looked poor is the IQ which I'm sure will be fixed - otherwise it looked completely fine for what is an mid-budget SRPG.
But like....

Fire Emblem Heroes just made $300M and will climb past $1B one day.

So people weren't expecting a mid-budget SRPG.
 
Oct 28, 2017
5,051
0
So this thread means very little in the bigger picture if we're looking at almost 2:1 global sales PS4/Switch Q1. Shame as a lot of people seem to handle this as a fulltime job really around here. :p
Damn you've been on the warpath today but this is your most transparent comment of them all. And that's saying something. Even an aggravating and childish emoticon to boot.

Kinda sad.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,361
0
It doesn't need to be a big budget. I think with a tasteful artstyle (that would match the character design, for one) you could have the same kind of environment look way better. Here everything look so... grey and brown, with awful textures, and so empty too. It's actually shocking how much it looks like the Gamecube game in the overview. Then when it zooms it gets better.

Even the castle looked really empty and brown.
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,760
0
UK
But like....

Fire Emblem Heroes just made $300M and will climb past $1B one day.

So people weren't expecting a mid-budget SRPG.
The goal of FE Heroes, like all their mobile games, is (highly profitable) digital marketing for the console games, not subsidising them to the tune of the massive dev costs required to jump from AA to AAA. That investment would be highly unlikely to pay off in terms of increased sales.
 
OP
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Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,013
0
Do you mean it in a Fire Emblem specific context or a general context to sequels then? Because I don't really get where that confidence in "50%+ growth is typical" comes from tbh. Not to be offensive; I genuinely don't get it.
Mario
Zelda
Mario Kart
Mario Tennis
Kirby

You can compare 3DS and Switch sales.
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,239
0
Spain
But that is a matter of the chosen color palette, which is darker.

For me the only problems are that the minion should wear helmets to hide that they are clones and the textures of the ground. Everything else is fine.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,382
0
Just to chip in on the Fire Emblem discussion, the game's budget is upped significantly. Don't expect Nintendo to aim for a million more sales. They're probably targeting a 4 plus million shipment on tbis one and to be fair they've handled the franchise pretty well with awakening, Fates and the mobile game.
 
Oct 25, 2017
11,970
0
The goal of FE Heroes, like all their mobile games, is (highly profitable) digital marketing for the console games, not subsidising them to the tune of the massive dev costs required to jump from AA to AAA. That investment would be highly unlikely to pay off in terms of increased sales.
The goal is to make money first and foremost.
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,760
0
UK
The goal is to make money first and foremost.
Like I said, that’s one of the goals, profit, IP promotion and audience awareness go hand in hand. I was recalling this, taken from an interview with Time a week before FEH launched.
Kimishima said Nintendo has three goals for its mobile business, the first is to get Nintendo IP and characters to more people thanks to the reach of mobile. "This is a great tool for us to push our IP to a large number of people," Kimishima said. "This is a great way to introduce them to our franchises and characters, and thereby bring them back to Nintendo's dedicated hardware as well as introduce them to Nintendo's expanded software library."

Next comes the money, "number two, we'd like mobile to be a pillar in and of itself--a business pillar that is profitable."

Finally, to bring people over to other Nintendo products and platforms by releasing games using the same IP and characters found in the mobile releases. "In the same way it worked for Pokémon, is to use games on mobile devices to increase the sales of other games we develop with the same characters. This is synergy, right? In this way we hope customers will purchase other related goods and services, too."
https://www.gamespot.com/articles/nintendo-discusses-mobile-strategy-switch-backward/1100-6447649/
 
Oct 25, 2017
11,970
0
Sure, I was recalling this
Kimishima said Nintendo has three goals for its mobile business, the first is to get Nintendo IP and characters to more people thanks to the reach of mobile. "This is a great tool for us to push our IP to a large number of people," Kimishima said. "This is a great way to introduce them to our franchises and characters, and thereby bring them back to Nintendo's dedicated hardware as well as introduce them to Nintendo's expanded software library."

Next comes the money, "number two, we'd like mobile to be a pillar in and of itself--a business pillar that is profitable."

Finally, to bring people over to other Nintendo products and platforms by releasing games using the same IP and characters found in the mobile releases. "In the same way it worked for Pokémon, is to use games on mobile devices to increase the sales of other games we develop with the same characters. This is synergy, right? In this way we hope customers will purchase other related goods and services, too."
[/QUOTE]
I don't deny they want to promote their IP through the mobile applications, but they did mobile because of the money. There are many ways to bring their IPs to public eyes, mobile was chosen as a pillar because of how much money it makes.

FEH didn't really promote Shadow of Valentia or Warriors at all.
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,760
0
UK
I don't deny they want to promote their IP through the mobile applications, but they did mobile because of the money. There are many ways to bring their IPs to public eyes, mobile was chosen as a pillar because of how much money it makes.

FEH didn't really promote Shadow of Valentia or Warriors at all.
Sure, I mean, mobile is huge, no argument there. Any strategy hitting multiple goals at once has to be a good one, happy to concede the point there.

FEH had FE Warriors maps around the launch of the latter game introducing reinforcements mechanics to represent huge enemy numbers, and Alm/Celica etc definitely appeared around the launch of SoV.
 
Oct 26, 2017
790
0
NPD June period covers June 3 to July 7
So it's 3 weeks of tracking, launch week was a Thursday and digital should be pretty good due to Gold Coins bonus. Nintendo doesn't share digital with NPD, but its safe to say that even with good digital sales Mario Tennis Aces is unlikely to sell 400K digitally, so we are talking physical shipment of over 1M until the June 30th WW. The initial shipment in Japan was at most 200K, that would probably lead to a shipment for NA of around 400K, so it pretty much depends on the sell-through. In Japan the first shipment sold out by the second week but we don't know if MTA had such strong sales in the US.
Last year Splatoon 2 launched in July and sold 332K physical. If Mario Tennis Aces does 400K physical even with three weeks of sales it would be a the best opening for a Switch game this year in the US and the 4th biggest opening on the platform since launch.

The other thing I'm seeing is extremely strong sales for DKTF we know that in Japan it didn't have more than 200K shipment for this quarter so that means that 1.2M were sold in other territories/digital. I don't think DKTF will sell more than 300K in Japan this year but it should still pass 2M based on strong sales else where.

Both games are games that Nintendo will drop the price on later in the year on the eShop. I'd expect we see 33% off for both on several occasions in different territories. I'd expect discounts to start driving strong digital growth YoY especially once the Paid Online rolls-out and there is additional discounts for those that subscribe. Which owner wouldn't buy Nintendo's first party titles for Christmas if they can get 50% off. Personally that's the type of thing that makes me think that Nintendo will greatly surpass their software target for the year and one of the reasons people would be subbed to their $20 per year paid online.
Mario Tennis Ace shipments were 300k, and Donkey Kong 240k in Japan by the end of June.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2018/180731_2e.pdf
 
Oct 26, 2017
7,241
0
Is it possible Monster Hunter World won’t get a G version? The only reason I ask is it just dawned on me but no version of a MH game that got a G version (MH1, MHP2, MH3, MH4, MHX) ever got a Best Price reprint before. But MHW is?
 
Oct 27, 2017
493
0
That's right, businesses do not expand when their product becomes far more successful.
There are more ways to expand a series and its reach than making the visuals of the next main entry more pretty.

If significantly increased production values were justified in terms of the expected increase in sales, that could have happened without the existence of Fire Emblem Heroes and all that money too. They're separate decisions.
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,859
0
There are more ways to expand a series and its reach than making the visuals of the next main entry more pretty.

If significantly increased production values were justified in terms of the expected increase in sales, that could have happened without the existence of Fire Emblem Heroes and all that money too. They're separate decisions.
1. Lots of people get interested in Fire Emblem through its impossibly successfully mobile game
2. Better not try to capitalize on that by making our next game high budget and more attractive to our new consumers.

IDK, seems weird.
 
Oct 27, 2017
493
0
1. Lots of people get interested in Fire Emblem through its impossibly successfully mobile game
2. Better not try to capitalize on that by making our next game high budget and more attractive to our new consumers.

IDK, seems weird.
Why are you assuming that people who got into Fire Emblem through the mobile game are only (or primarily) interested in super high-end visuals? That doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. The gameplay is the core of the experience, so if you want to convert those new players, it stands to reason that the best way to do so is to make the gameplay of Three Houses really good and effectively communicate why people who got into the series with the mobile game would enjoy it.
 
Oct 25, 2017
854
0
Mario Tennis Ace shipments were 300k, and Donkey Kong 240k in Japan by the end of June.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2018/180731_2e.pdf
Thanks for that slide, I had missed it. Nintendo actually shipped a lot more of MTA than I expected by the end of June. If digital was 15% of that total that would mean the game got 45K digital sales in it's launch month, while 10% would translate to 30K.
 
Oct 30, 2017
1,013
0
1. Lots of people get interested in Fire Emblem through its impossibly successfully mobile game
2. Better not try to capitalize on that by making our next game high budget and more attractive to our new consumers.

IDK, seems weird.
Mobile success does not translate to AAA efforts. I don't know how you arrived at this logic.

This is like saying that just because a book/show/game is popular, then the movie based on it needs to be a high-budget blockbuster to reflect it.
 
Oct 26, 2017
790
0
I doubt it, Switch will have a strong summer inside and outside of Japan.

Since August is here next direct must not be very far and will reveal Nintendo's plans for Q3 and Q4. Anything important that will launch this Fiscal Year will be in there and many things have been hinted so far.
Stronger than last year with Splatoon, Mario & Rabbids (Monster Hunter XX in Japan) and Pokken?
I don’t think so.

Sales will be better than Q1 2018, but still, I believe lower than Q2 2017.

Q3 and Q4 will probably be stronger with the games coming.
 
Oct 28, 2017
581
0
Stronger than last year with Splatoon, Mario & Rabbids (Monster Hunter XX in Japan) and Pokken?
I don’t think so.

Sales will be better than Q1 2018, but still, I believe lower than Q2 2017.

Q3 and Q4 will probably be stronger with the games coming.
This year we have the localization of Monster Hunter XX, we had Octopath Traveler (very succesful), Captain Toad (surprisingly succesful) and a new Labo kit (though that is a wild card)
 
Nov 13, 2017
636
0
I doubt it. This is the only place making a huge deal about $20 a year. For everyone else it's whatever
For me, personally, I am for sure buying it - I really want to play Splatoon/Smash/Mario Kart etc and $20 is not a biggie.

But the way reddit and all talk about it is as if no one there is going to buy it, with hundreds of upvotes to those saying they are not getting it till Nintendo has a better online system and such.

I really hope it doesn't have a huge effect on the game's online community and sales and stuff.
 
Oct 26, 2017
790
0
This year we have the localization of Monster Hunter XX, we had Octopath Traveler (very succesful), Captain Toad (surprisingly succesful) and a new Labo kit (though that is a wild card)
The only title that can move hardware of these is Octopath Traveler. Last year titles were stronger hardware movers.
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,671
0
Stronger than last year with Splatoon, Mario & Rabbids (Monster Hunter XX in Japan) and Pokken?
I don’t think so.

Sales will be better than Q1 2018, but still, I believe lower than Q2 2017.

Q3 and Q4 will probably be stronger with the games coming.
it might since splatoon, mario odyssey, physical mindcraft etc are out, and smash/pokemon hype.

or it easily might not.
Japan will definitely be down it seems.
anybody know NPDs for summer months 2017?

(you also didn't mention Fortnite since you're talking worldwide)
 
Oct 29, 2017
1,778
0
I think aligned Fates did better and just fell off because the 3DS active userbase died really fast.
Europe was a big factor here. Fates ended up bombing in Europe (unlike Awakening, which sold roughly about the same in Europe as in the US), due to a 3 month delay that made it miss that crucial April window that worked so well for previous 3DS JRPG releases. People gave up on it and lost interest by that point over here and sales didn’t come close to Awakening as a result.

Despite the very disappointing visuals, I fully expect Three Houses to easily outsell Awakening and become the best selling entry in the series. 3 million seems like a very achievable target worldwide.
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,731
0
22
The Netherlands
For me, personally, I am for sure buying it - I really want to play Splatoon/Smash/Mario Kart etc and $20 is not a biggie.

But the way reddit and all talk about it is as if no one there is going to buy it, with hundreds of upvotes to those saying they are not getting it till Nintendo has a better online system and such.

I really hope it doesn't have a huge effect on the game's online community and sales and stuff.
I'm pretty sure you could find the same for PS Plus. People have shown that they do not mind paying $60 for online, so they definitely won't mind paying $20.
 
Oct 28, 2017
410
0
For me, personally, I am for sure buying it - I really want to play Splatoon/Smash/Mario Kart etc and $20 is not a biggie.

But the way reddit and all talk about it is as if no one there is going to buy it, with hundreds of upvotes to those saying they are not getting it till Nintendo has a better online system and such.

I really hope it doesn't have a huge effect on the game's online community and sales and stuff.
The market has shown that millions are willing to pay for online. Everything else is just gamer hot air.
 
Oct 25, 2017
854
0
not sure. but $20/year is pretty cheap
Depending on the discounts paid subs get, it might actually save money for people who purchase a lot of games. A 10% discount for all gaming purchases for example would save you $24 if you purchase 4 full priced titles digitally.
Overall I don't anticipate paid online will hurt any games's sales, I think it might even help some games sell more. Imagine Nintendo running a 30% discount for Splatoon 2 on the Japanese eShop and subscribers being able to purchase games at 40% off - that's a pretty huge discount for Nintendo 1st party games which generally maintain their price.
 

cw_sasuke

Banned
Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,625
0
I think many Nintendo fans will just sign up for the Classic games ....online play will be just a bonus for the non-hardcore players.

20 bucks a year is literally nothing .....even kids will be able to get those gift cards as presents to keep them afloat for another years.

ERA like always is making a big deal about the negatives, which is fair...but most regular customers will see that they are getting access to classic titles like Mario and Zelda + more sales for less than two bucks a month.

If the sales are somewhat split the subscription will pay for itself in a matter of months for for people who buy stuff on the eShop.
 
Oct 31, 2017
5,220
0
There are several other benefits, people are not paying for online only, but even if they were, they are getting the best online experience possible. Nintendo is charging for subpar online play.

People are not stupid.
Breh that was alway a factor this gen you got almost jack shit for the 360. Plus your snes games and it comes at a lower price.

O'be lost all faith we'll be seeing any push back to paid online. That ship has sailed.