Less than 3 million.
Less than 3 million.
I mean, the issue with Arms does come down to that EPD can only make like 5 major games at a time and it's... questionable whether one of those 5 should be Arms.
And I'm not sure about the growth possibilities either.
Maybe Bamco will want to make Arms 2 though.
weird that they're sticking with 20m for now.
weird that they're sticking with 20m for now.
maybe if it's down next quarter they'll adjust it.
or pokemon and smash will do something crazy
What was the MC sell-through numbers for Q1 ?
They have 500k shipped in Japan in the report which lower than I thought.
There is a reason why they stopped giving meaningful supports for the game and only focused on small online events
If Q1-Q2 and Q4 stay 1:1 (or close) to last year, to make the 20M mark, Q3 (holidays) will need to sell 12M units.weird that they're sticking with 20m for now.
maybe if it's down next quarter they'll adjust it.
or pokemon and smash will do something crazy
Japanese sales (Media Create), between Week 14 (Apr 02 - Apr 08, 2018) to Week 26 (Jun 25 - Jul 01, 2018) - 532,978
If Q1-Q2 and Q4 stay 1:1 (or close) to last year, to make the 20M mark, Q3 (holidays) will need to sell 12M units.
its hard, but not an impossible number. they have never sell that amount in 1 Q, but they have had 4 times they have sold 11+M units (DS 2007 to 2009) and Wii 2009
im going by the "what would be the hardest scenario" it being, Q3 carrying everything, realistically I do expect Q4 to be better (more games nad more carry over from Q3)shouldn't they expect Q4 to be a lot higher though. To take some pressure off Q3?
Smash and Pokemon will still be around, and maybe a notable game will hit before march.
What was Q4 for Switch this year again?
Bayonetta and Kirby.shouldn't they expect Q4 to be a lot higher though. To take some pressure off Q3?
Smash and Pokemon will still be around, and maybe a notable game will hit before march.
What was Q4 for Switch this year again?
gotcha.im going by the "what would be the hardest scenario" it being, Q3 carrying everything, realistically I do expect Q4 to be better (more games nad more carry over from Q3)
Q4 was 2.9M units too
Nintendo has a few wild cards they can pull, like say holidays only price cut (like Sony did) or officially release in China, your are on a partnership with Tencent, fucking us itgotcha.
hm, gonna be difficult.
even if Q4 does do a little better and adds an extra million or so, Q3 still has to do like 11m.
I don't know which is furthest from reality, this or 3DS that Nintendo would keep supporting because it remains very strong.ARMS has a whole lot of room for improvement from a gameplay perspective, and Yabuki has already gone on record saying he wants to make a sequel. If Yabuki wants a sequel soon, Nintendo will let him do it. The fact that the game is no longer getting updates leads me to believe that ARMS 2 is coming much sooner than anyone expects.
weird that they're sticking with 20m for now.
maybe if it's down next quarter they'll adjust it.
or pokemon and smash will do something crazy
her?Anyone want to talk 3ds performance? It's down 62% YoY (0.36M vs. 0.95M), and there is no pokémon title releasing to buoy sales during the holiday period, so imo they will fall well short of their 4M forecast for the FY.
I don't know much about the coporate world but that sounds kinda shady even illegalI suspect Nintendo knows they're likely not hitting 20 mill, but right now is not the right time to say that.
. I suspect Nintendo knows they're likely not hitting 20 mill, but right now is not the right time to say that.
I don't know much about the coporate world but that sounds kinda shady even illegal
2017 (52 games)
WINTER (8 games)
MARCH (8 games)
March 03: 1-2-Switch
March 03: Disgaea 5 Complete
March 03: Dragon Quest Heroes I & II
March 03: I am Setsuna
March 03: Nobunaga's Ambition: Sphere of Influence with Power-Up Kit
March 03: Puyo Puyo Tetris
March 03: Super Bomberman R
March 03: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
SPRING (6 games)
MARCH (1 game)
March 30: Romance of the Three Kingdoms 13 with Power-Up Kit
APRIL (2 games)
April 20: Minna de Wai Wai! Spelunker
April 28: Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
MAY (1 game)
May 26: Ultra Street Fighter II: The Final Challengers
JUNE (2 games)
June 01: Seiken Densetsu Collection
June 16: Arms
SUMMER (13 games)
JUNE (1 game)
June 29: LEGO City Undercover
JULY (3 games)
July 20: Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star
July 20: Cars 3: Driven to Win
July 21: Splatoon 2
AUGUST (4 games)
August 24: One Piece: Unlimited World Red Deluxe
August 25: Monster Hunter XX
August 31: Nights of Azure 2: Bride of the New Moon
August 31: Azure Striker Gunvolt: Striker Pack
SEPTEMBER (5 games)
September 07: Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2
September 14: Champion Jockey Special
September 14: Winning Post 8 2017
September 21: Dragon Quest X: All in One Package
September 22: Pokken Tournament DX
FALL (25 games)
SEPTEMBER (2 games)
September 28: Fire Emblem Warriors
September 29: FIFA 18
OCTOBER (4 games)
October 12: Lost Sphear
October 17: NBA 2K18
October 19: The LEGO Ninjago Movie Video Game
October 27: Super Mario Odyssey
NOVEMBER (11 games: excluded explorer and re:r collection)
November 09: Sonic Forces
November 09: Monopoly for Nintendo Switch
November 09: Dynasty Warriors 8: Empires
November 09: Samurai Warriors: Sanada Maru
November 09: Warriors Orochi 3: Ultimate
November 10: Snipperclips Plus
November 16: Dragon Quest X: 5000
November 22: LEGO Worlds
November 23: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild: Explorer's Edition
November 30: Resident Evil: Revelations
November 30: Resident Evil: Revelations 2
November 30: Resident Evil: Revelations Collection
November 30: Nobunaga's Ambition: Taishi
DECEMBER (8 games)
December 01: Xenoblade Chronicles 2
December 07: Sumikko Gurashi: Sumikko Park e Youkoso
December 07: L.A. Noire
December 14: Farming Simulator
December 14: Asonde Shogi ga Tsuyokunaru! Ginsei Shogi DX
December 14: Gear.Club Unlimited
December 21: One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 Deluxe
December 21: Atelier Lydie & Suelle: The Alchemists and the Mysterious Paintings
2018 (117 games)
WINTER (20 games)
JANUARY (2 games)
January 18: Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle
January 25: Voez
FEBRUARY (8 games: excluded bayonetta climax edition)
February 01: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
February 01: LEGO Marvel Super Heroes 2
February 08: Gal Metal!
February 08: Cave Story+
February 17: Bayonetta
February 17: Bayonetta 2
February 17: Bayonetta Climax Edition
February 22: Gotouchi Tetsudou for Nintendo Switch!!
February 22: Rayman Legends: Definitive Edition
MARCH (10 games)
March 01: Dragon Quest Builders
March 01: Doom
March 08: Your Four Knight Princesses Training Story
March 15: Attack on Titan 2
March 15: Winning Post 8 2018
March 15: Gal Gun 2
March 16: Kirby Star Allies
March 22: Hyrule Warriors: Definitive Edition
March 22: PriPara All Idol Perfect Stage!
March 22: Monster Energy Supercross: The Official Videogame
SPRING (25 games)
MARCH (2 games)
March 29: Ao no Kanata no Four Rhythm
March 29: Happy Birthdays
APRIL (9 games)
April 12: The Snack World: TreJarers Gold
April 19: Neo Atlas 1469
April 19: Portal Knights
April 19: Wonderboy: The Dragon's Trap
April 20: Nintendo Labo Toy-Con 01: Variety Kit
April 20: Nintendo Labo Toy-Con 02: Robot Kit
April 26: SD Gundam G Generation Genesis
April 26: Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm Legacy
April 26: Cube Creator X
MAY (7 games)
May 03: Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze
May 24: Mega Man Legacy Collection 1+2
May 24: Rabi x Rabi: Puzzle Out Stories
May 24: Urban Trial Playground
May 31: BlazBlue: Cross Tag Battle
May 31: Liar Princess and the Blind Prince
May 31: Shantae: Half-Genie Hero - Ultimate Edition
JUNE (7 games)
June 07: Little Nightmares
June 08: Sushi Striker: The Way of Sushido
June 14: GOD WARS: Great War of Japanese Mythology
June 21: The Misshitsu Kara no Dasshutsu: 35 Fateful Enigmas
June 21: THE Mahjong
June 21: Minecraft
June 22: Mario Tennis Ace
SUMMER (46 games)
JUNE (2 games)
June 28: Ys VIII : Lacrimosa of Dana
June 28: Shiin (Death Mark)
JULY (16 games, Rockman X Anniversary Collection 1&2 excluded)
July 12: Shining Resonance Refrain
July 13: Octopath Traveler
July 13: Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker
July 19: Sonic Mania Plus
July 19: Taiko Drum Master: Nintendo Switch Version!
July 19: Closed Nightmare
July 19: Touhou Genso Wanderer: Reloaded
July 26: Higurashi no Naku Koro ni Hou
July 26: Rockman X Anniversary Collection 1
July 26: Rockman X Anniversary Collection 2
July 26: Rockman X Anniversary Collection 1&2
July 26: Dragon Quest X All in One Package
July 26: Rocket League
July 26: Makai Senki Disgaea Refine
July 26: Waku Waku Doubutsu Land
July 26: Daitoshokan no Hitsujikai: Library Party
July 26: Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus
AUGUST (15 games)
August 02: SaGa : Scarlet Grace - Hiiro no Yabô
August 02: Code of Princess EX
August 02: Pro Yakyuu Famista Evolution
August 02: LEGO: The Incredibles
August 09: Okami HD
August 09: Waku Waku Sweets: Amai Okashi ga Dekiru kana?
August 09: Jake Hunter Detective Story: Prism of Eyes
August 09: Darkest Dungeon
August 09: Layton's Mystery Journey: Katrielle and the Millionaires Conspiracy DX
August 23: My Hero Academia: One's Justice
August 30: Psyvariar Delta
August 30: Little Dragons Cafe
August 30: Tennis World Tour
August 30: Blade Strangers
August 30: World End Syndrome
SEPTEMBER (13 games)
September 06: Hakuoki Shinkai: Fuukaden
September 06: SNK Heroines Tag Team Frenzy
September 11: NBA 2K19
September 13: Code: Realize ~Bouquet of Rainbows~
September 14: Nintendo Labo Toy-Con 03: Drive Kit
September 15: Undertale
September 20: STEINS; GATE ELITE
September 20: ニル・アドミラリの天秤 色ドリ撫子 (Nil Admirari no Tenbin: Teito Genwaku Kitan)
September 20: Atelier Rorona: The Alchemist of Arland DX
September 20: Atelier Totori: The Adventurer of Arland DX
September 20: Atelier Meruru: The Apprentice of Arland DX
September 20: Dai Senryaku Perfect 4.0
September 21: Xenoblade Chronicles 2: Torna: The Golden Country
FALL (26 games)
SEPTEMBER (9 games)
September 25/28: FIFA 19
September 27: Dragon Ball FighterZ
September 27: Warriors Orochi 3
September 27: The World Ends with You: Final Remix
September 27: NORN9 LOFN
September 27: Labyrinth of Refrain : Coven of Dusk
September 27: Valkyria Chronicles 4
September 27: MotoGP 18
September 27: Dies irae ~Amantes amentes~ For Nintendo Switch
OCTOBER (11 games)
October 04: WORK × WORK
October 04: Sumikko Gurashu: Atsumare! Sumikko Town
October 04: Rockman 11: Gear of Destiny!!
October 05: Super Mario Party
October 18: Crash Bandicoot N.Sane Trilogy
October 25: LEGO DC Super-Villains
October 25: Beyblade Burst: Battle Zero
October 25: Street Fighter 30th Anniversary Collection International
October 25: Memories Off -Innocent Fille-
October 25: Nora to Oujo to Noraneko Heart HD Version
October 25: Yomawari: The Long Night Collection
NOVEMBER (5 games)
November 01: Nelke and the Legendary Alchemists
November 08: Pikachin-Kit: Game de Pirameki Daisakusen
November 16: Pokémon Let's Go, Pikachu
November 16: Pokémon Let's Go, Eevee
November 22: Robotics;Notes DaSH
DECEMBER (1 game)
December 07: Super Smash Bros. Special
Of course missing a sales prediction isn't illegal but purposely lying to investors about your expectations for a product is pretty shadyThere's nothing illegal about that companies do that sort of thing all the time. Sales projections are not some legal binding contract that they have to live up to, companies miss some projections all the time, hell Nintendo basically missed every single Wii U and 3DS projection they ever made, lol.
The fiscal year still has 3 more quarters left in it, they don't have to announce jack shit right now if they don't want to, they can revise the forecast at multiple other points.
It would make zero sense to do announce that now though, it would just overshadow the good news of beating operating profit forecasts and give jittery investors something to grasp on with a hostile investor apparently making a multi-million dollar bet against Nintendo.
Revision is better left to after Christmas, they can highlight strong holiday sales, likely sky high Pokemon LG and Smash numbers, plus maybe Mario Kart Mobile breaks out like gangbusters.
Of course missing a sales prediction isn't illegal but purposely lying to investors about your expectations for a product is pretty shady
Octopath is getting shipments before the 4th of August on Amazon :
https://www.amazon.co.jp/スクウェア・エニックス-オクトパストラベラー-Switch/dp/B07BBMRD77/ref=zg_bsms_videogames_1?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=REM6CDC3V2RZPQ05ECVH
It might be the week of the big shipment for the game.
Relax, it's just one guyis "they will revise forecast down next quarter" the new "they're going to cut the price any time now" in this thread ?
Switch Hardware may be "weak", Software definitely isn't. Based on my own calculations, it had crazy attach rate during Q1: 9.5 (17.96 million games / 1.88 million consoles). That bumped up the LTD attach rate to 4.4, +0.6 in just one quarter.
It only includes titles that had a retail release, so no digital-only indie titles, for example.Isnt the total amount of software simply any game that was sold in general? So, any game from $1 to $60 and above?
Yeah, I wonder how these work. When they got the physical release they add the total digital in this quarter? Or don't add them at all, or what?
I see. That seems kinda strange to me. Why not include digital only games when talking about total software sales?It only includes titles that had a retail release, so no digital-only indie titles, for example.
Isnt the total amount of software simply any game that was sold in general? So, any game from $1 to $60 and above?
Let's be honest, that's exactly how it worked with the Wii U forecast 5 years ago. I think Switch forecast is totally achievable though, if they can sell something like 3M Japan, 4M USA, 4M RoW in Q3 they can get there.
See my other post right above here :) Why not include digital only games when talking about total software sales?$1 games don't really get a physical release. The cheapest physical game launched so far, I can think of is Snipperclips.
What is there to talk. Nintendo overestimated 3DS lasting power and moving away from it quickly, it's not like there are any big releases left for it.Anyone want to talk 3ds performance? It's down 62% YoY (0.36M vs. 0.95M), and there is no pokémon title releasing to buoy sales during the holiday period, so imo they will fall well short of their 4M forecast for the FY.