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Media Create Sales: Week 29, 2018 (Jul 16 - Jul 22)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
I mean, the issue with Arms does come down to that EPD can only make like 5 major games at a time and it's... questionable whether one of those 5 should be Arms.
And I'm not sure about the growth possibilities either.
Maybe Bamco will want to make Arms 2 though.
And I'm not sure about the growth possibilities either.
Maybe Bamco will want to make Arms 2 though.
Nah, EPD can make way more games than that. It's more the case of any Switch titles they were working on prior to the system's launch were strictly for the first year. Anything they have in development now only started development after the console was a proven hit. 2019 onward will see much more EPD projects, possibly more than last year.
Total - 2,930,000
Japan - 830,000
Americas - 1,170,000
Overseas - 930,000
weird that they're sticking with 20m for now.
maybe if it's down next quarter they'll adjust it.
or pokemon and smash will do something crazy
What was the MC sell-through numbers for Q1 ?
They have 500k shipped in Japan in the report which lower than I thought.
They have 500k shipped in Japan in the report which lower than I thought.
Japanese sales (Media Create), between Week 14 (Apr 02 - Apr 08, 2018) to Week 26 (Jun 25 - Jul 01, 2018) - 532,978
People are really underestimating the impact of POKEMON and SMASH during holidays. Switch will fly off the shelves from November onwards.
This has been debunked many times. The supported the game for months. The fact that they stopped giving the game meaningful contents doesn't mean they are not satisfied with sales.
This has been debunked many times. The supported the game for months. The fact that they stopped giving the game meaningful contents doesn't mean they are not satisfied with sales.
If Q1-Q2 and Q4 stay 1:1 (or close) to last year, to make the 20M mark, Q3 (holidays) will need to sell 12M units.
its hard, but not an impossible number. they have never sell that amount in 1 Q, but they have had 4 times they have sold 11+M units (DS 2007 to 2009) and Wii 2009
Hmm okay, it feels like they are absorbing some of the shipments from previous quarters, as if they are trying to limit the number of current model Switch without facing supply issues.
If I were to bet, I would say that they might release another model soon without the SoC exploit.
If Q1-Q2 and Q4 stay 1:1 (or close) to last year, to make the 20M mark, Q3 (holidays) will need to sell 12M units.
its hard, but not an impossible number. they have never sell that amount in 1 Q, but they have had 4 times they have sold 11+M units (DS 2007 to 2009) and Wii 2009
shouldn't they expect Q4 to be a lot higher though. To take some pressure off Q3?
Smash and Pokemon will still be around, and maybe a notable game will hit before march.
What was Q4 for Switch this year again?
im going by the "what would be the hardest scenario" it being, Q3 carrying everything, realistically I do expect Q4 to be better (more games nad more carry over from Q3)
Q4 was 2.9M units too
gotcha.im going by the "what would be the hardest scenario" it being, Q3 carrying everything, realistically I do expect Q4 to be better (more games nad more carry over from Q3)
Q4 was 2.9M units too
hm, gonna be difficult.
even if Q4 does do a little better and adds an extra million or so, Q3 still has to do like 11m.
Nintendo has a few wild cards they can pull, like say holidays only price cut (like Sony did) or officially release in China, your are on a partnership with Tencent, fucking us it
OP
OP
I don't know which is furthest from reality, this or 3DS that Nintendo would keep supporting because it remains very strong.
Well there's also a hostile investor that's betting hard against Nintendo too. I suspect Nintendo knows they're likely not hitting 20 mill, but right now is not the right time to say that.
It would just overshadow the positive news they have for now (good software sales, solid operating profit growth) and scare away investors.
Anyone want to talk 3ds performance? It's down 62% YoY (0.36M vs. 0.95M), and there is no pokémon title releasing to buoy sales during the holiday period, so imo they will fall well short of their 4M forecast for the FY.
I think they will do an appealing bundle or price promotion during Q3 to hit the 20 million target.
They have a wide range of people to sell to. Stuff like Xenoblade Expansion, Octopath Traveler, Darksouls, Zelda, and possibly Fire Emblem in Q4, Labo, Kirby, Mario, Smash, Pokemon, Mario Pary hit a very wide demographic. So massive explosive sales during Q3 would not really surprise me to be honest.
They have a wide range of people to sell to. Stuff like Xenoblade Expansion, Octopath Traveler, Darksouls, Zelda, and possibly Fire Emblem in Q4, Labo, Kirby, Mario, Smash, Pokemon, Mario Pary hit a very wide demographic. So massive explosive sales during Q3 would not really surprise me to be honest.
Absolutely 0 chance of ARMS getting a sequel before the next system.
Also, 3DS is dead and I hope no one blames the recent 3DS games for their poor sales. It's the system's fault and Nintendo made a wrong move by not porting everything to Switch.
Also, 3DS is dead and I hope no one blames the recent 3DS games for their poor sales. It's the system's fault and Nintendo made a wrong move by not porting everything to Switch.
I don't know much about the coporate world but that sounds kinda shady even illegal
There's nothing illegal about that companies do that sort of thing all the time. Sales projections are not some legal binding contract that they have to live up to, companies miss some projections all the time, hell Nintendo basically missed every single Wii U and 3DS projection they ever made, lol.
The fiscal year still has 3 more quarters left in it, they don't have to announce jack shit right now if they don't want to, they can revise the forecast at multiple other points.
It would make zero sense to do announce that now though, it would just overshadow the good news of beating operating profit forecasts and give jittery investors something to grasp on with a hostile investor apparently making a multi-million dollar bet against Nintendo.
Revision downwards is better left to after Christmas, they can highlight strong holiday sales, likely sky high Pokemon LG and Smash numbers, plus maybe Mario Kart Mobile breaks out like gangbusters. 20 million was always kind of an overly ambitious number, even the Wii did not sell that in its 2nd fiscal year, neither did the DS.
SWITCH: PHYSICAL GAMES (170 games)
[UPDATE]
- November 22: Robotics;Notes DaSH
https://gematsu.com/2018/07/roboticsnotes-dash-for-ps4-switch-launches-november-22-in-japan
2019 (1 game)
WINTER (1 game)
FEBRUARY (1 game)
February 28: Darius: Cozmic Collection
[UPDATE]
- November 22: Robotics;Notes DaSH
https://gematsu.com/2018/07/roboticsnotes-dash-for-ps4-switch-launches-november-22-in-japan
2019 (1 game)
WINTER (1 game)
FEBRUARY (1 game)
February 28: Darius: Cozmic Collection
Of course missing a sales prediction isn't illegal but purposely lying to investors about your expectations for a product is pretty shady
Standing by a projection is not lying. It's not even theoretically impossible for Nintendo to hit that ... if Pokemon LG can successfully woo a lot of Pokemon Go players to spend $300 on a Switch, well bingo Nintendo can say "no problemo". Companies do all sorts of crazy crap with how they spin things to investors all the time. Case in point, Microsoft won't even disclose exact revenue from their XBox division alone. That's way more egregious.
That's also why many people just hire stock advisors to handle their portfolio, because you really need to know your shit when you're investing in a company.
Octopath is getting shipments before the 4th of August on Amazon :
https://www.amazon.co.jp/スクウェア・エニック...coding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=REM6CDC3V2RZPQ05ECVH
It might be the week of the big shipment for the game.
https://www.amazon.co.jp/スクウェア・エニック...coding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=REM6CDC3V2RZPQ05ECVH
It might be the week of the big shipment for the game.
is "they will revise forecast down next quarter" the new "they're going to cut the price any time now" in this thread ?
LOL. People now saying ARMS didn't sell well. It's still selling and has amazing numbers for a 3d 1v1 fighter. I'd like to have seen some predictions ahead of time.
Also, claims that arms stopped receiving support because of sales is just made up BS. If you actually look at the content, it's quite clear that the game feels complete now. This was the planned content. Adding more free stuff doesn't make sense. 2 more characters won't suddenly boost sales further.
Finally. Arms sequel in 2019?? People are legitimately clueless when it comes to Nintendo aren't they. We're not getting a sequel on Switch.
Also, claims that arms stopped receiving support because of sales is just made up BS. If you actually look at the content, it's quite clear that the game feels complete now. This was the planned content. Adding more free stuff doesn't make sense. 2 more characters won't suddenly boost sales further.
Finally. Arms sequel in 2019?? People are legitimately clueless when it comes to Nintendo aren't they. We're not getting a sequel on Switch.
Switch Hardware may be "weak", Software definitely isn't. Based on my own calculations, it had crazy attach rate during Q1: 9.5 (17.96 million games / 1.88 million consoles). That bumped up the LTD attach rate to 4.4, +0.6 in just one quarter.
Btw, iunteresting data:
A shame they don't also share regional data for those.
Btw, iunteresting data:
A shame they don't also share regional data for those.
Minecraft could have played a role along the other indies that got a physical release.
Isnt the total amount of software simply any game that was sold in general? So, any game from $1 to $60 and above?
It only includes titles that had a retail release, so no digital-only indie titles, for example.
Why would they add it?
Minecraft is a special case because all owners of the original version got the new one for free. Not sure if those were counted, though.
That's not the case for indie games getting late physical release (not to mention sales volumes are too low and negligible). For those, pretty sure only retail was counted.
I see. That seems kinda strange to me. Why not include digital only games when talking about total software sales?
$1 games don't really get a physical release. The cheapest physical game launched so far, I can think of is Snipperclips.
Let's be honest, that's exactly how it worked with the Wii U forecast 5 years ago. I think Switch forecast is totally achievable though, if they can sell something like 3M Japan, 4M USA, 4M RoW in Q3 they can get there.
See my other post right above here :) Why not include digital only games when talking about total software sales?
OP
OP
What is there to talk. Nintendo overestimated 3DS lasting power and moving away from it quickly, it's not like there are any big releases left for it.
Sushi Striker and Captain Toad were ported to Switch and if it was easy Luigi's Mansion would move there in a heartbeat.