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Oct 26, 2017
6,315
Nashville
So I know this isn't partaking to Japan, but what do you guys think Mario Tennis Aces sold in the US now we got it shipped 1.4 Million in a week? I'm thinking 400k in my opinion.
 

Charamiwa

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,051
If Mario Maker arrives, I really hope it's a sequel that adds a bunch of things to the editor but more importantly rethinks the online aspect. And maybe a bunch of Nintendo designed courses like on 3DS.

A dream would be Super Mario Maker World, create your own succession of levels with an world map editor akin to Super Mario Run.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,277
Let's see what side people are on.

Does FE launch before March 31?

going no personally. I feel it's a fair bit off, and some other game will be announced for Q1.
 

Boiled Goose

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
9,999
If Mario Maker arrives, I really hope it's a sequel that adds a bunch of things to the editor but more importantly rethinks the online aspect. And maybe a bunch of Nintendo designed courses like on 3DS.

A dream would be Super Mario Maker World, create your own succession of levels with an world map editor akin to Super Mario Run.

You know what would sell insane numbers?

A new 2d mario with new artsyle that includes mario maker.
The mario maker part would include the new artstyle and mechanics and also have a better online component. Gives me an old school SMB duck hunt combo feeling.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,277
What is there to talk. Nintendo overestimated 3DS lasting power and moving away from it quickly, it's not like there are any big releases left for it.

Sushi Striker and Captain Toad were ported to Switch and if it was easy Luigi's Mansion would move there in a heartbeat.

add another chapter in Mario rpgs being screwed over


Nintendo should release a primer on how to kill two successful spinoff series
you won't believe #10
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,277
If Nintendo needs it for hitting targets it will in March. Otherwise it's heading for Golden Week / Easter.
I don't feel like it would push the HW needle that much. But can sell a lot.

I'm thinking the latter tho


edit: I think either LM3 or something like pikmin could be a surprise Q1 game. Or 2D mario port of course
 
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Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Fire Emblem and Mario Maker will be the next franchises that will see big growth on Switch.
 
Oct 26, 2017
20,440
If Nintendo needs it for hitting targets it will in March. Otherwise it's heading for Golden Week / Easter.

I would hope Nintendo wouldn't rush out Fire Emblem (because it looks really rough right now to the point of where they had to shove the camera up to point at the sky to hide the framerate) and I doubt rushing it out would help them hit targets.


The ground textures looked horrible as did all the NPCs.
 

ASarafanov

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
596
Japan
function scrollToId(selector, offset = 60) { window.scroll(0, document.querySelector(selector).offsetTop - offset); return false } The ground textures looked horrible as did all the NPCs.
It's a japanese game with a mid-tier budget. There's a lot of "horrible" textures in games like VC4 as well. Overall FE looked awesome, and no one will care about those "horrible textures" after the release. Biggest game in the franchise is coming.
 
Oct 26, 2017
20,440
It's a japanese game with a mid-tier budget. There's a lot of "horrible" textures in games like VC4 as well. Overall FE looked awesome, and no one gonna care about those "horrible textures" after the release. Biggest game in the franchise is coming.

It's a Japanese game whose mobile spinoff just made $500M.

VC4 is destined to do terribly everywhere and just has PS3 tier graphics, Fire Emblem Switch should sell 5m units, it shouldn't look as bad graphically as it does.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,277
It looked amazing visually.
it was pretty ugly.
and drab. Character models looked good at least as well as the castle. But the battle environment needs serious work.

which was disappointing since IntSys is one of the Nintendo devs that had an HD game released last gen.

And that game was Color Splash which was one of the best looking Wii U games. I assume they're maybe different teams(?) but still. Disappointing.
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,905
Fire Emblem should sell 5m units? More than any srpg ever? There's only like 3 JRPG series that can even consistently reach those numbers globally?
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,277
VC4 is destined to do terribly everywhere and just has PS3 tier graphics, Fire Emblem Switch should sell 5m units, it shouldn't look as bad graphically as it does.

uh should?
5m is maybe possible, but that's the highest of its hopes. And if it really broke out for some reason.

no way in the world is that a "should"

It'll be the best selling FE, but people shouldn't forget the previous high is 1.84 million.

And this is still a anime SRPG at the end of the day.

Fire Emblem should sell 5m units? More than any srpg ever? There's only like 3 JRPG series that can even consistently reach those numbers globally?

yeah, makes little sense.
 

hibikase

User requested ban
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
6,820
What is there to talk. Nintendo overestimated 3DS lasting power and moving away from it quickly, it's not like there are any big releases left for it.

Sushi Striker and Captain Toad were ported to Switch and if it was easy Luigi's Mansion would move there in a heartbeat.

I do wonder if Captain Toad Switch/3DS started as a Switch project or a 3DS project.
 

Nocturnal

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,321
So I know this isn't partaking to Japan, but what do you guys think Mario Tennis Aces sold in the US now we got it shipped 1.4 Million in a week? I'm thinking 400k in my opinion.

Well since this covers two weeks it should be pretty large no?

NPD June period covers June 3 to July 7
So it's 3 weeks of tracking, launch week was a Thursday and digital should be pretty good due to Gold Coins bonus. Nintendo doesn't share digital with NPD, but its safe to say that even with good digital sales Mario Tennis Aces is unlikely to sell 400K digitally, so we are talking physical shipment of over 1M until the June 30th WW. The initial shipment in Japan was at most 200K, that would probably lead to a shipment for NA of around 400K, so it pretty much depends on the sell-through. In Japan the first shipment sold out by the second week but we don't know if MTA had such strong sales in the US.
Last year Splatoon 2 launched in July and sold 332K physical. If Mario Tennis Aces does 400K physical even with three weeks of sales it would be a the best opening for a Switch game this year in the US and the 4th biggest opening on the platform since launch.

The other thing I'm seeing is extremely strong sales for DKTF we know that in Japan it didn't have more than 200K shipment for this quarter so that means that 1.2M were sold in other territories/digital. I don't think DKTF will sell more than 300K in Japan this year but it should still pass 2M based on strong sales else where.

Both games are games that Nintendo will drop the price on later in the year on the eShop. I'd expect we see 33% off for both on several occasions in different territories. I'd expect discounts to start driving strong digital growth YoY especially once the Paid Online rolls-out and there is additional discounts for those that subscribe. Which owner wouldn't buy Nintendo's first party titles for Christmas if they can get 50% off. Personally that's the type of thing that makes me think that Nintendo will greatly surpass their software target for the year and one of the reasons people would be subbed to their $20 per year paid online.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,277
It will because they will need something to hit the 20 millions target
luigi's mansion 3. book it.
along with 600k octopath

Your numbers are outdated. FE Awakening sold 1.9 million as of march 2017 https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2017/170201_2e.pdf Now it surely passed 2 million.

Biggest japanese srpg of all time is FF Tactics (PS1, 2,4 million, released 20 years ago). FE Switch will destroy that number.
oh, got it from Celine's thread.
maybe he/she can update it if there's some new info
 

hibikase

User requested ban
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
6,820
Sonic Mania Plus at #29 and #41 is depressing. Why u no like 2D Sonic, Japan? I know the Megadrive was 3rd place in Japan, but still.

The original eShop release barely entered the Top 20 as well.
 

Deleted member 5535

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,656
It's a Japanese game whose mobile spinoff just made $500M.

VC4 is destined to do terribly everywhere and just has PS3 tier graphics, Fire Emblem Switch should sell 5m units, it shouldn't look as bad graphically as it does.

Lmao, what? Fire Emblem 5 million? If it reaches 3 million it's going to be lucky.

With how big ARMS, Mario Tennis, and Kirby debuted in 2 weeks. Fire Emblem going for close to 2 Million initial shipment?

I think 1.5m is more doable than 2m
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,905
I do wonder if Captain Toad Switch/3DS started as a Switch project or a 3DS project.
NST did the 3DS port while EPD Tokyo handled Switch inhouse. I'd assume Switch was the lead port based on the new levels.

Would've been neat if they'd have let NST design their own levels based off 3D Land instead.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Looking at Octopath, the amazon Japan stock didn't last very long: currently a 1-2 day backorder. In terms of ranking, it looks to have been doing rather strongly: it's #1 on the ranking, above the soon-to-be-released EOX and above Smash. I'm definitely curious to see the numbers tomorrow and the week after.
 

Eolz

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
7,601
FR
Fire Emblem and Mario Maker will be the next franchises that will see big growth on Switch.
3-4m is a good forecast for Fire Emblem Switch.
That sounds like a really big growth. While Awakening got to 2M and Heroes is doing well, didn't Fates sell less too? Three Houses seems more "tame" (for lack of a better word) than those three so far, wouldn't a 2.5/3M max be more reasonable? That'd still be really impressive in its own right.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,277
That sounds like a really big growth. While Awakening got to 2M and Heroes is doing well, didn't Fates sell less too? Three Houses seems more "tame" (for lack of a better word) than those three so far, wouldn't a 2.5/3M max be more reasonable? That'd still be really impressive in its own right.
depends on how good it is imo.
if it's good, 3m and at max 4m seems okay.
 

Deleted member 2793

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
15,368
That sounds like a really big growth. While Awakening got to 2M and Heroes is doing well, didn't Fates sell less too? Three Houses seems more "tame" (for lack of a better word) than those three so far, wouldn't a 2.5/3M max be more reasonable? That'd still be really impressive in its own right.
I think aligned Fates did better and just fell off because the 3DS active userbase died really fast.

Three Houses should do 3M if it has good reception and follows the Switch growth pattern.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,277
It looked surprisingly poor for a new Switch game. Muted colors, CG is now low frame rate when awakening got it right the first time, ugly environments.
Maybe they'll show massive improvements by spring next year but it's not too promising since it was due this year
that CG when it looked like some war flashback being like 10 fps looked like a stylistic choice.
The CG with the girl singing looked normal.

I doubt the game's graphics will improve much by next year. Unless it's a May/June game, then it could improve a little imo.
 

sanstesy

Banned
Nov 16, 2017
2,471
I think people are a little too hard on FE. The only thing that looked poor is the IQ which I'm sure will be fixed - otherwise it looked completely fine for what is an mid-budget SRPG.
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,617
that CG when it looked like some war flashback being like 10 fps looked like a stylistic choice.
The CG with the girl singing looked normal.

I doubt the game's graphics will improve much by next year. Unless it's a May/June game, then it could improve a little imo.
I know it's a stylistic choice, but it's a garbage one. If it's just for a flash back then I guess it would be fine, have to wait and see.
Hope it's good since I really liked awakening but haven't been drawn to it since
 

Eolz

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
7,601
FR
I think people are a little too hard on FE. The only thing that looked poor is the IQ which I'm sure will be fixed - otherwise it looked completely fine for what is an mid-budget SRPG.
Personally I'm really happy with how it looks, but then again I loved Echoes and some people think Fates was fantastic.
 
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Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
That sounds like a really big growth. While Awakening got to 2M and Heroes is doing well, didn't Fates sell less too? Three Houses seems more "tame" (for lack of a better word) than those three so far, wouldn't a 2.5/3M max be more reasonable? That'd still be really impressive in its own right.
50%+ is typical growth from 3DS to Switch.
 

Deleted member 15538

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,387
User banned (72 hours): Trolling, thread-whining, inflammatory drive-by posting, history of similar behavior.
So this thread means very little in the bigger picture if we're looking at almost 2:1 global sales PS4/Switch Q1. Shame as a lot of people seem to handle this as a fulltime job really around here. :p