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Mr. Pointy

Member
Oct 28, 2017
5,141
The fact that it's even possible for a port of Bayonetta 2 to outsell a new Metal Gear spinoff is pretty wild.
Konami would have been better off doing Metal Gear Rising 2 as their first post-Kojima MG game. They wouldn't have been able to monetise it like Survive, but I think it would have generated more good will. Survive reminds me too much of Metroid Prime Federation Force.
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,617
MGSurvive is weird. Seems like they wanted something quick out but with the delay and the added dev time I'm not sure they can sell enough to make up for it.
Maybe would've been better to cancel it and wait a year or so and announce something else. MGS Rising 2, maybe. Not sure if Pg would take the job, but it would likely sell well, right?
 

Sage

Member
Oct 27, 2017
680
Japan
My co-worker finally managed to get a Switch for her kids the other day after them apparently asking since last summer. She asked the older one what games she should get and he said he didn't know.. hah.

I get the feeling he Switch itself is what people want. That's where the hype is. Not 'I want a Switch for [X Game]' just 'I want a Switch.' Part of the trust that Nintendo will put out, well, Nintendo games is probably a big part of that. It sells on their mindshare.

For that reason regardless of any weak lineup (which may turn out to be strong depending on Labo) I don't see demand dropping anytime soon.
 

CeroMiedo

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,337
My co-worker finally managed to get a Switch for her kids the other day after them apparently asking since last summer. She asked the older one what games she should get and he said he didn't know.. hah.

I get the feeling he Switch itself is what people want. That's where the hype is. Not 'I want a Switch for [X Game]' just 'I want a Switch.' Part of the trust that Nintendo will put out, well, Nintendo games is probably a big part of that. It sells on their mindshare.

For that reason regardless of any weak lineup (which may turn out to be strong depending on Labo) I don't see demand dropping anytime soon.
I think its current line up also contributed a lot,not just the hardware itself,I mean 50% of their big games scream system sellers already
 

Jpop

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,655
My co-worker finally managed to get a Switch for her kids the other day after them apparently asking since last summer. She asked the older one what games she should get and he said he didn't know.. hah.

I get the feeling he Switch itself is what people want. That's where the hype is. Not 'I want a Switch for [X Game]' just 'I want a Switch.' Part of the trust that Nintendo will put out, well, Nintendo games is probably a big part of that. It sells on their mindshare.

For that reason regardless of any weak lineup (which may turn out to be strong depending on Labo) I don't see demand dropping anytime soon.

The lineup isn't weak even not taking Labo into account.

It just isn't hardcore gamer friendly kind of lineup like 2017 was

Edit:

The system is a huge selling point though. Which is why software sales have been so strong across the board
 

MoonFrog

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,969
Tbh I didn't realize Survive was coming out until we started talking about it in here. But I'm clueless about a lot of things :P.
 

asmith906

Member
Oct 27, 2017
27,348
I don't care that Kojima isn't involved with M etal Gear Survive. My problem is it looks like it should be dlc for Metal Gear Solid 5.
 

LOCK

Member
Oct 25, 2017
465
Nirolak I understand your point on software. But at what point do we look at the library as the holder of the baseline and then big releases as spikes to maintain or lift the baseline?

In other words, I think the big releases on the Switch now is maintaining the baseline and adding to the library during Q1/Q2 will help do that as well or cause spikes.

I think PS4 is a great example during the holiday of a system being maintained by its library, but no spikes because of no system seller releases.
 

MysticGon

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 31, 2017
7,285
PS4 might end up selling the same as the PS3 in Japan LTD but we might actually get to a point where million-sellers aren't that uncommon. I'd love to see a new million-seller franchise be born on the system like Splatoon or Yokai Watch.
 

Spine Crawler

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
10,228
My co-worker finally managed to get a Switch for her kids the other day after them apparently asking since last summer. She asked the older one what games she should get and he said he didn't know.. hah.

I get the feeling he Switch itself is what people want. That's where the hype is. Not 'I want a Switch for [X Game]' just 'I want a Switch.' Part of the trust that Nintendo will put out, well, Nintendo games is probably a big part of that. It sells on their mindshare.

For that reason regardless of any weak lineup (which may turn out to be strong depending on Labo) I don't see demand dropping anytime soon.
so thats why the software sales are so bad while hardware sales are soaring... oh wait.
 

Vena

Community Resettler
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,379
PS4 might end up selling the same as the PS3 in Japan LTD but we might actually get to a point where million-sellers aren't that uncommon. I'd love to see a new million-seller franchise be born on the system like Splatoon or Yokai Watch.

We won't.

Games of this caliber need to be made first, then marketed at non-existent audiences for your given examples, and then also somehow sell a million for a platform where selling over 500k is already rare.
 

KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo
PS4 might end up selling the same as the PS3 in Japan LTD but we might actually get to a point where million-sellers aren't that uncommon. I'd love to see a new million-seller franchise be born on the system like Splatoon or Yokai Watch.
Even if PS4 somehow was able to get 5 series to cross a million it would still be an uncommon occurrence. PS2 had 17 titles cross the million barrier, PS had 18, Wii 14, DS 35, 3DS 18, etc. On all those other consoles it was still pretty rare to reach a million sales, so PS4 getting 3 is, I would say, pretty uncommon.
 
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Spine Crawler

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
10,228
From that information, we won't see anything. Because that information is specifically COMG's store data.
but isnt comg considered to be the litmus test of the japanese games industry. i see a lot of people posting pre order statistics of comg every week and its being heavily anlysed with multipliers being used to get to a predicted ltd or opening of said games.
 

casiopao

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
5,044
I just recently played Nobunaga no Yabou ascension and i just noticed one thing lol. Where the hell is Ruby Party? With Switch doing really well and the coming Kirby which will attract female players,

Koei should port Geten no Hana and its other neoromance title to Switch for quick bucks there.
 

Buzzman

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,549
but isnt comg considered to be the litmus test of the japanese games industry. i see a lot of people posting pre order statistics of comg every week and its being heavily anlysed with multipliers being used to get to a predicted ltd or opening of said games.
Oh boy, this is the problem with COMG numbers constantly being posted.
It specifically shows data for one chain of stores, and you can't extrapolate that data to the rest of the market, there's been quite a bit of debate as to how useful the numbers even are.
 

Kanann

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,170
In paper, cluster sampling like COMG (all preordered customers at Niigata) can be use in equation only if numbers are not all over the place and no systematic pattern at all.

Unless we find secret of that numbers game by game and time by time.

For now it's not statistic nor fact for calculating sales.
 

Aters

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
7,948
It seems Nekopara series will be brought to Switch and PS4. Vita lives in both Switch and PS4 now it seems.
 

Fukuzatsu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,321
So do we have the presence of any other Japanese Game Store on Twitter to know how the sales of MHW going at their stores.

Can't find anything by GEO, but there's a blog post floating around 5ch (2ch) and other aggregation sites like Hachima Kiko that says something similar about their shop (where they work, I guess):
http://www.nariyukigame.com/archives/52861727.html

間違いなくPS4ソフト史上最高のスタート!!

ドラゴンクエスト11の時にはあまり見られなかった
中学~高校の学生さん、若い社会人さんのお客さんも多く、
お客さんの年齢層がさらに広がっていた印象。

逆に3DSの4Gやクロスの頃は小学生位の子供さんも多かったのですが、
売っている感覚で言えばPSPの頃のポータブルを売っている頃を思い出す販売内容でした。

初日分はほぼ予約で埋まっていたと言う事もあり、
PS4本体の販売数はモンハンパック以外はそれほどでもなかったのですが
これからも期待できるのが、学生さんにリサーチ取ってみた所、
「学校でもかなり盛り上がっている!」、「友達に誘われて」的な
二次爆発も期待できる意見が聞けた事。

"Without a doubt, the best start for a PS4 game in the system's [domestic] history."
"Many young adults, JHS and HS students came to the shop [to purchase MHW and related goods], a trend that wasn't seen for DQXI's release. It appears that the age range for this title has widened a bit [compared to other PS4 games].
Rather, while for the 3DS games such as 4G and Cross (MHX) there were many primary school students, the impression I got [for MHW] of who was buying was similar to that of the portable titles on PSP."

"As for the first day, of course there was the factor of pre-orders having been completely filled, and the PS4 HW sales aside from the MHW bundle/pack-in were nothing to write home about, however,
one thing I think we can expect is something I heard from students [who were buying/interested in the game], who said 'my friends at school were pretty psyched about this', or 'a friend invited me to play with them'--that is, decent indirect sales promotion."


Of course, still just a blog by what is likely one shopowner, so don't take it as gospel for the nation or anything.
 

Nocturnal

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,321
PREDICTION LEAGUE FEBRUARY 2018

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Jan 29 to Feb 25):

[PS4] Dragon Ball FighterZ (25 days) - 135.000
[NSW] The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (25 days) - 95.000
[PS4] Dynasty Warriors 9 (18 days) - 180.000
[PS4 + PSV] Secret of Mana (11 days) - 55.000
[NSW] Bayonetta 2 (9 days) - 85.000
[PS4] Metal Gear Survive (5 days) - 70.000
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,171
but isnt comg considered to be the litmus test of the japanese games industry. i see a lot of people posting pre order statistics of comg every week and its being heavily anlysed with multipliers being used to get to a predicted ltd or opening of said games.
It was like 3 people. And they did that for fun.

There's discussion in what to see from a specific store chain and the rate its customers preorder hot new items. But it's never useful for ACTUALLY predicting or speculating sales. That's the main problem with the constant graphs (aside from their frequency).
 
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silpheed-mcd

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,384
Switch restocks continue today and many stores have still Switch stocks, good news :) (no pictures, i'm lazy today :p )
 

Mr Swine

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
6,031
Sweden
PREDICTION LEAGUE FEBRUARY 2018

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Jan 29 to Feb 25):

[PS4] Dragon Ball FighterZ (25 days) - 142.000
[NSW] The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (25 days) - 52.000
[PS4] Dynasty Warriors 9 (18 days) - 168.000
[PS4 + PSV] Secret of Mana (11 days) - 65.000
[NSW] Bayonetta 2 (9 days) - 39.000
[PS4] Metal Gear Survive (5 days) - 60.000
 

Nocturnal

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,321
Personally I think weekly sales points on COMG are pretty good predictor for overall trends in terms of weekly sales.
Pre-orders are a bit more difficult because of the multiplayer core titles have much higher points compared to casual titles for example.
Just some points to show how COMG does generally show the overall trends in terms of how titles perform.

Splatoon 2
COMG: 125 -> 192 -> 57 -> 32
Actual Sales: 96K -> 117K -> 34K -> 28K

SMO
COMG:: 70 -> 140 -> 36 -> 26
Actual Sales: 105K -> 110K -> 28K -> 18K

MK8D
COMG: 94 - > 196 -> 47 -> 34
Actual Sales: 87K -> 82K -> 22K -> 26K

Zelda BotW
COMG: 49 -> 37 -> n/a -> 29
Actual Sales: 33K -> 31K -> 12K -> 9K

1 2 Switch
COMG: 55 -> 42 -> 13 -> n/a
Actual Sales: 21K -> 21K -> 6K -> 4K

Arms
COMG: 29 -> 68 -> 19 -> 15
Actual Sales:16K -> 25K -> 7K -> 4K
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Nothing big for next week, PS4 Dragon Ball FightersZ and Switch Skyrim the only notable releases, sinobi has low expectations for Skyrim.
 

Noobie

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
755
Can't find anything by GEO, but there's a blog post floating around 5ch (2ch) and other aggregation sites like Hachima Kiko that says something similar about their shop (where they work, I guess):
http://www.nariyukigame.com/archives/52861727.html



"Without a doubt, the best start for a PS4 game in the system's [domestic] history."
"Many young adults, JHS and HS students came to the shop [to purchase MHW and related goods], a trend that wasn't seen for DQXI's release. It appears that the age range for this title has widened a bit [compared to other PS4 games].
Rather, while for the 3DS games such as 4G and Cross (MHX) there were many primary school students, the impression I got [for MHW] of who was buying was similar to that of the portable titles on PSP."

"As for the first day, of course there was the factor of pre-orders having been completely filled, and the PS4 HW sales aside from the MHW bundle/pack-in were nothing to write home about, however,
one thing I think we can expect is something I heard from students [who were buying/interested in the game], who said 'my friends at school were pretty psyched about this', or 'a friend invited me to play with them'--that is, decent indirect sales promotion."


Of course, still just a blog by what is likely one shopowner, so don't take it as gospel for the nation or anything.
Thanks.

atleast shows that indications are on the positive side. How much it will help surely can't be determined by just two impressions but having both impressions positive is a good sign.
 

silpheed-mcd

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,384
MHW restocks continue today

Example, Enterking

DUnNK7ZVoAAZwRk.jpg



And many stores have still stocks, good news too :)
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,734
Italy
In paper, cluster sampling like COMG (all preordered customers at Niigata) can be use in equation only if numbers are not all over the place and no systematic pattern at all.

Unless we find secret of that numbers game by game and time by time.

For now it's not statistic nor fact for calculating sales.

To be more precise, that's not even cluster sampling.

Cluster sampling would imply to sample among clusters. Here, we just have one cluster, if the methodology is to group observations according to chain stores.

Isn't Skyrim pretty big in Japan for a Western game? I'm surprised it has no buzz.

Not that big.

PS3 The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 70.508 177.971 Bethesda Softworks 08/12/2011
360 The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 28.328 69.847 Bethesda Softworks 08/12/2011
PS4 The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - Special Edition 29.005 56.839 Bethesda Softworks 10/11/2016
PS3 The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - Legendary Edition 9.390 32.873 Bethesda Softworks 27/06/2013
PS3 The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim [PlayStation 3 the Best] 1.910 11.843 Bethesda Softworks 27/06/2013
PS4 The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim VR [PlayStation VR] 4.517 4.517 Bethesda Softworks 14/12/2017
360 The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - Legendary Edition 2.130 3.503 Bethesda Softworks 27/06/2013

It's not in the 200k club of many other Western games.
 

rAndom

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,866
50k+ LTD is what you can expect from Skyrim. The game is very old and has been ported everywhere. It's not that it did big numbers before.

Not that big.

PS3 The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 70.508 177.971 Bethesda Softworks 08/12/2011
360 The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 28.328 69.847 Bethesda Softworks 08/12/2011
PS4 The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - Special Edition 29.005 56.839 Bethesda Softworks 10/11/2016
PS3 The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - Legendary Edition 9.390 32.873 Bethesda Softworks 27/06/2013
PS3 The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim [PlayStation 3 the Best] 1.910 11.843 Bethesda Softworks 27/06/2013
PS4 The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim VR [PlayStation VR] 4.517 4.517 Bethesda Softworks 14/12/2017
360 The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - Legendary Edition 2.130 3.503 Bethesda Softworks 27/06/2013

It's not in the 200k club of many other Western games.

I might have thought of another game. Can't believe it was pretty small even on the PS360 era.
 
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