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KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,355
Ahhh, my bad. I knew the comparison isn't exact year-wise, but I can't split it up properly and the systems have such different lifetime trajectories/peaks where the PSP was just entering its prime at this point in its life and the PS4 is starting to taper.

Didn't realize about the Dengeki numbers and the Famitsu Top 100/500 thing. That means the PSP is likely higher than what we know but the comparison isn't apples to apples.

I mean PS4 hardware sales declining doesn't have to mean it's software sales have to decline as well. So far this year PS4 is only about a million down sw wise compared to last year that had MonHun: World (about par with 2017 and ahead of all other years). Iceborne alone should cover some of the difference. PS3 still had big sw sales in 2012 and 2013 despite big drop in hw sales.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
4. Voucher digital sales won't make the sales double or even increase 50%. That can be said by anyone who follows Japan sales.
Just because you claim everyone says it doesn't make it so. Vouchers represent huge savings for games like Fire Emblem, and we know from eshop rankings that FETH was above SMM2 every week since launch despite retail sales being less than half of SMM2 in certain weeks. And SMM2 was determined to have a very string digital share (about 30%) from the shipment numbers in July.

If you disagree with this, that's fine, but we can test it by checking the shipment numbers at the end of October, and further discussion before that point in time is just people saying that a checkable thing is or isn't true and not getting anywhere.

But until the end of October, no one will be willing to say that FETH bombed because it sold way below other FE games that came before, unless they are willing to dismiss vouchers as a major factor in current sales.
 
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Naga

Alt account
Banned
Aug 29, 2019
7,850
PREDICTION LEAGUE SEPTEMBER 2019

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Aug 26 to Sep 29):

[PS4] Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne Master Edition (24 days) - 350k
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Lite (10 days) - 120k
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (10 days) - 80k
[PS4] Code Vein (4 days) - 90k
[PS4 + NSW] Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout (4 days) - 60k
[NSW] Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age - Definitive Edition (3 days) - 400k

I think Atelier can have a return to Totori era LTD sales (130k). Definitely a similar launch to Sophie at the very least.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
I'll wait until October to judge FE sales in full. I think retail has been soft overall for it. But then again. I never expected it to grow over Fates. I expected it to be a 400-500k seller.
That's a completely fair stance. It is uncontested that retail sales are soft. The question that remains is whether that is due to vouchers moving massive amounts of sales to digital or due to actual underperformance.

I think it will have a huge digital share myself, due to the eshop ranking evidence. I think 500k-600k is possible, but we will see come October.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,410
Still two months left to go. And when we will be there, all these people will magically disappear.
 

Fularu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,609
The funny thing: some people have come and claimed that people are using vouchers as an excuse and won't come back to the fiscussion to falsify or verify it in October, but it will be those people who will be MIA.
Well some of them won't come back back, they'll be back back on alt number 1235 :p
 

Deleted member 51691

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 6, 2019
17,834
I hope Ace Attorney gets one last chance with a seventh mainline entry. Maybe the Switch boost will save the series.
 

zelig

Banned
Aug 29, 2019
221
PREDICTION LEAGUE SEPTEMBER 2019

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Aug 26 to Sep 29):

[PS4] Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne Master Edition (24 days) - 390k
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Lite (10 days) - 500k
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (10 days) - 180k
[PS4] Code Vein (4 days) - 35k
[PS4 + NSW] Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout (4 days) - 66k
[NSW] Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age - Definitive Edition (3 days) - 780k

Code Vein and DQ11S are kinda what I want them to be. CV bomba for Bamco's shitty inevitable double-dip late-port for Switch. DQ11S megaton to surpass all expectations.

Is the stock for the Switch Lite known? I predict it will pretty much sell out (95% or more) whatever Nintendo ships.
 

Kerotan

Banned
Oct 31, 2018
3,951
I mean PS4 hardware sales declining doesn't have to mean it's software sales have to decline as well. So far this year PS4 is only about a million down sw wise compared to last year that had MonHun: World (about par with 2017 and ahead of all other years). Iceborne alone should cover some of the difference. PS3 still had big sw sales in 2012 and 2013 despite big drop in hw sales.
Exactly and let's not forget that every year the % of sales that are digital jumps up a few %.
 

Warukyure

Banned
Feb 23, 2019
599
Lost Sphear did 7.269 on PS4 and 6.562 on Switch FW. Oninaki did better but are those numbers enough to justify Tokyo RPG Factory running?

I have no idea what they are doing with that studio. Feels like it would be better to shutter them since performance in sales has been horrible and their games have nothing special about them. It's like they are Kemco.

Retailers really overshot on Switch Mary Skelter 2 it looks like.

Do you know what the breakdown better MS1 vs MS2 is by chance? And MS2 didn't get a PS4 version right? I wonder with sales like that would they consist a port over, regardless of Sony's anti-loli policy

Crazy how just a few years ago, Square Enix announced the creation of Tokyo RPG Factory with fanfare at E3, selling it as a brand new studio that would focus on creating nostalgic 90s style JRPGs from their heyday. With Asano's team folded back into the Dragon Quest division in the corporate restructuring, they should move him and his team over to Tokyo RPG Factory, put him in charge, and let him make better use of the studio's resources. Put out some games that actually review and sell well. Bravely Default and Octopath Traveler were better than most Final Fantasy games in the last decade, let alone anything the Factory has pushed out on their assembly line.

It's quite sad really, i was hoping to see more along the lines of Bravely or octopath, heck I wouldn't even mind more games like the 2 mana remakes but what we have is kind of woeful. Not to mention the price they charge is ridiculous.

Great concept, horrible execution
 

IamFlying

Alt Account
Banned
Apr 6, 2019
765
I mean PS4 hardware sales declining doesn't have to mean it's software sales have to decline as well. So far this year PS4 is only about a million down sw wise compared to last year that had MonHun: World (about par with 2017 and ahead of all other years). Iceborne alone should cover some of the difference. PS3 still had big sw sales in 2012 and 2013 despite big drop in hw sales.

PS4 and PS3 are no big software seller anyway. I don't think it's very hard for the PS4 to retain the relatively low software sales numbers at the moment.
 

Lite_Agent

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,572
Somewhere. I think.
Nintendo eShop Sales: August 22nd to August 28th 2019

Nintendo eShop – Nintendo Switch

01./01. – Goonya Fighter (Mutan) [27.6.2019] (was on sale)
02./07. – Astral Chain (Nintendo) [30.8.2019]
03./02. – Obakeidoro (Free Style) [01.8.2019]
04./03. – Fire Emblem: Three Houses (Nintendo) [26.7.2019]
05./13. – The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (Nintendo) [20.9.2019]
06./09. – Minecraft (Mojang / Microsoft Japan) [21.6.2018]
07./New. – Final Fantasy VIII Remastered (Square-Enix) [03.9.2019]
08./08. – Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) [28.12.2017]
09./05. – Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo) [28.6.2019]
10./00. – Ultimate Chicken Horse (Cleaver Endeavour Games) [25.9.2018] (was on sale)
11./10. – Futari de! Nyanko Dai Sensou! (Ponos) [20.12.2018]
12./11. – Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo) [07.12.2018]
13./12. – Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) [28.04.2017]
14./New. – Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age Definitive Edition (Square-Enix) [27.9.2019]
15./New. – Oninaki (Square-Enix) [22.8.2019]
16./19. – Tsuri Spirits Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai-Namco) [25.7.2019]
17.New. – Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age Definitive Edition - Gorgeous Edition (Square-Enix) [27.9.2019]
18./00. – Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy (Capcom) [21.2.2019] (was on sale)
19./14. – The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo) [03.3.2017]
20./00. – Deemo (Flyhigh Works) [21.9.2017] (was on sale)

Nintendo eShop – Nintendo 3DS

01./01. – The Battle Cats POP! (Ponos) [31.5.2015]
02./02. – Dragon Quest III (Square-Enix) [24.8.2017]
03./03. – Pokémon Crystal Version (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [26.1.2018]
04./05. – Dragon Quest (Square-Enix) [10.8.2017]
05./04. – Dragon Quest II (Square-Enix) [28.8.2017]
06./06. – Minecraft: New Nintendo 3DS (Microsoft Japan) [14.9.2017]
07./08. – Bike Rider DX (Spicysoft) [26.12.2012]
08./07. – EarthBound (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [04.3.2016]
09./09. – Ice Station Z (Wobbly Tooth) [05.4.2017]
10./00. – Battleminerz (Wobbly Tooth) [17.1.2018]


All hail our Goony Fighter overlord.
 
Last edited:

MegaXZero

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jun 21, 2018
5,079
Nintendo eShop Sales: August 22nd to August 28th 2019

Nintendo eShop – Nintendo Switch

01./01. – Goonya Fighter (Mutan) [27.6.2019] (was on sale)
02./07. – Astral Chain (Nintendo) [30.8.2019]
03./02. – Obakeidoro (Free Style) [01.8.2019]
04./03. – Fire Emblem: Three Houses (Nintendo) [26.7.2019]
05./13. – The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (Nintendo) [20.9.2019]
06./09. – Minecraft (Mojang / Microsoft Japan) [21.6.2018]
07./New. – Final Fantasy VIII Remastered (Square-Enix) [03.9.2019]
08./08. – Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) [28.12.2017]
09./05. – Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo) [28.6.2019]
10./00. – Ultimate Chicken Horse (Cleaver Endeavour Games) [25.9.2018] (was on sale)

Nintendo eShop – Nintendo 3DS

01./01. – The Battle Cats POP! (Ponos) [31.5.2015]
02./02. – Dragon Quest III (Square-Enix) [24.8.2017]
03./03. – Pokémon Crystal Version (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [26.1.2018]
04./05. – Dragon Quest (Square-Enix) [10.8.2017]
05./04. – Dragon Quest II (Square-Enix) [28.8.2017]
06./06. – Minecraft: New Nintendo 3DS (Microsoft Japan) [14.9.2017]
07./08. – Bike Rider DX (Spicysoft) [26.12.2012]
08./07. – EarthBound (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [04.3.2016]
09./09. – Ice Station Z (Wobbly Tooth) [05.4.2017]
10./00. – Battleminerz (Wobbly Tooth) [17.1.2018]

Fire Emblem has had a terrific run on the eshop.
 

theprodigy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
685
not that eshop charts and Famitsu are aligned date wise, but the latter's most recent week had Mario Maker at almost 3x Fire Emblem while the latter is higher digitally lol
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878

konoka

Member
Dec 20, 2017
387
Just because you claim everyone says it doesn't make it so. Vouchers represent huge savings for games like Fire Emblem, and we know from eshop rankings that FETH was above SMM2 every week since launch despite retail sales being less than half of SMM2 in certain weeks. And SMM2 was determined to have a very string digital share (about 30%) from the shipment numbers in July.

If you disagree with this, that's fine, but we can test it by checking the shipment numbers at the end of October, and further discussion before that point in time is just people saying that a checkable thing is or isn't true and not getting anywhere.

But until the end of October, no one will be willing to say that FETH bombed because it sold way below other FE games that came before, unless they are willing to dismiss vouchers as a major factor in current sales.
You can't test it by Nintendo's shipment numbers because Nintedo's shipment numbers are not equal to the sum of digital numbers and retailer's stocks due to distributors.
Sometimes Nintendo has reported sellthrough + digital numbers in their briefings and that can test it.
Without that, I think there is a high chance that Nintendo demonstrate voucher's performances with some clear numbers in their next briefings.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
You can't test it by Nintendo's shipment numbers because Nintedo's shipment numbers are not equal to the sum of digital numbers and retailer's stocks due to distributors.
Sometimes Nintendo has reported sellthrough + digital numbers in their briefings and that can test it.
Without that, I think there is a high chance that Nintendo demonstrate voucher's performances with some clear numbers in their next briefings.
I'm sorry, it's early here so I'm not sure I fully got your point. But if I'm not mistaken, you mean that units in transit from factories to stores are first stored at distribution sites before going out to retailers, right? In that case, due to FETH being out for over 2 months, the number of units being in transit should not be that large anymore since games like this don't sell a lot on a weekly basis after 2 months. In that case, we should still be able to get a close approximation of digital from those numbers even when ignoring this factor, right? Correct me if I'm wrong, of course
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
There will be a good estimate for Mario Maker and Fire Emblem digital in October, +/-5% off. They are many months at shelves for sell through to have big difference from shipments, especially for Fire Emblem.
 

konoka

Member
Dec 20, 2017
387
I'm sorry, it's early here so I'm not sure I fully got your point. But if I'm not mistaken, you mean that units in transit from factories to stores are first stored at distribution sites before going out to retailers, right? In that case, due to FETH being out for over 2 months, the number of units being in transit should not be that large anymore since games like this don't sell a lot on a weekly basis after 2 months. In that case, we should still be able to get a close approximation of digital from those numbers even when ignoring this factor, right? Correct me if I'm wrong, of course
I mean "問屋".
Maybe "wholesalers" is closer.
Anyway my point is that is another involved estimated numbers in the download ratio estimation.
Estimating by shipment numbers involve estimated retail sales, estimated retail digestibility and estimated delta that I mentioned.
In the case of SMM2, Media Create estimated 230k and Dengeki estimated 163k.
These "reliable" numbers are not that close, then how can we get a close approximation?
(Caution: Don't think the medium 196k is somewhat more reliable.)
 

MysticGon

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 31, 2017
7,285
PREDICTION LEAGUE SEPTEMBER 2019

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Aug 26 to Sep 29):

[PS4] Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne Master Edition (24 days) - 270.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Lite (10 days) - 225.000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (10 days) -
280.000
[PS4] Code Vein (4 days) -
60.000
[PS4 + NSW] Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout(4 days) -
43.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age - Definitive Edition (3 days) -
200.000
 

oracion

Member
Jan 7, 2018
695
Tokyo
PREDICTION LEAGUE SEPTEMBER 2019

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Aug 26 to Sep 29):

[PS4] Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne Master Edition (24 days) - 300.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Lite (10 days) - 250.000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (10 days) - 150.000
[PS4] Code Vein (4 days) - 60.000
[PS4 + NSW] Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout(4 days) - 40.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age - Definitive Edition (3 days) - 200.000
 

Lite_Agent

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,572
Somewhere. I think.
Nintendo eShop Sales: August 22nd to August 28th 2019

Nintendo eShop – Nintendo Switch

01./01. – Goonya Fighter (Mutan) [27.6.2019] (was on sale)
02./07. – Astral Chain (Nintendo) [30.8.2019]
03./02. – Obakeidoro (Free Style) [01.8.2019]
04./03. – Fire Emblem: Three Houses (Nintendo) [26.7.2019]
05./13. – The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (Nintendo) [20.9.2019]
06./09. – Minecraft (Mojang / Microsoft Japan) [21.6.2018]
07./New. – Final Fantasy VIII Remastered (Square-Enix) [03.9.2019]
08./08. – Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) [28.12.2017]
09./05. – Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo) [28.6.2019]
10./00. – Ultimate Chicken Horse (Cleaver Endeavour Games) [25.9.2018] (was on sale)
11./10. – Futari de! Nyanko Dai Sensou! (Ponos) [20.12.2018]
12./11. – Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo) [07.12.2018]
13./12. – Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) [28.04.2017]
14./New. – Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age Definitive Edition (Square-Enix) [27.9.2019]
15./New. – Oninaki (Square-Enix) [22.8.2019]
16./19. – Tsuri Spirits Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai-Namco) [25.7.2019]
17.New. – Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age Definitive Edition - Gorgeous Edition (Square-Enix) [27.9.2019]
18./00. – Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy (Capcom) [21.2.2019] (was on sale)
19./14. – The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo) [03.3.2017]
20./00. – Deemo (Flyhigh Works) [21.9.2017] (was on sale)

 

Kerotan

Banned
Oct 31, 2018
3,951
So Sony skipping TGS as well. So it looks like they'll have no conference's until the PS5 reveal next Feb/March.
 

Lite_Agent

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,572
Somewhere. I think.
So here's some interesting data. People who pre-order Pokémon Sword and Shield in Japan can get an invite to the Pokémon Himitsu Club (some sort of promotional exclusive club with various benefits). It's impossible to join without pre-purchasing the game, so if TPC actually shared the number of members, we can actually get a guess at how many people pre-ordered.

And that's pretty much what they did today. They've announced that the number of members has topped 55 555. So yeah, there is at the very least 55 555 pre-orders for Sword and Shield in Japan atm, but that's obviously not the full number since you need to register manually to the club (and it's not clear when that milestone was reached), so you're not automatically counted.

Sadly, I'm afraid this will be the only actual pre-order number we ever get (unless they have another distribution, I guess), since MC stopped sharing anything : / Unless Famitsu mentions pre-orders in their early report.

 

Deleted member 2791

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
19,054
So here's some interesting data. People who pre-order Pokémon Sword and Shield in Japan can get an invite to the Pokémon Himitsu Club (some sort of promotional exclusive club with various benefits). It's impossible to join without pre-purchasing the game, so if TPC actually shared the number of members, we can actually get a guess at how many people pre-ordered.

And that's pretty much what they did today. They've announced that the number of members has topped 55 555. So yeah, there is at the very least 55 555 pre-orders for Sword and Shield in Japan atm, but that's obviously not the full number since you need to register manually to the club (and it's not clear when that milestone was reached), so you're not automatically counted.

Sadly, I'm afraid this will be the only actual pre-order number we ever get (unless they have another distribution, I guess), since MC stopped sharing anything : / Unless Famitsu mentions pre-orders in their early report.


But was the Himitsu Club thing made only for this occasion or was it already open before ?
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
Btw i hope Nintendo also release a chart which show Three Houses weekly sales compared to Fates and Awakening (for both west and Japan), this would be even better and knowing Nintendo that's also very likely gonna happen.
 

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,165
Switch Publisher Rankings: Famitsu Week 34, 2019
68UwL05.png

*Digital sales not included
**Titles that have re-entered the Top 30 have the LTD difference added to this week
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Media Create Sales: Week 34, 2019 (Aug 19 - Aug 25)

01./01. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.06.28} (¥5.980)
02./00. [PS4] Oninaki <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.08.22} (¥5.800)
03./00. [NSW] Oninaki <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.08.22} (¥5.800)
04./04. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200)
05./03. [NSW] Fire Emblem: Three Houses # <SLG> (Nintendo) {2019.07.26} (¥6.980)
06./05. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980)
07./08. [NSW] Minecraft # <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} (¥3.600)
08./02. [NSW] Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version <SPT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.07.25} (¥5.700)
09./07. [PS4] Professional Baseball Spirits 2019 <SPT> (Konami) {2019.07.18} (¥8.800)
10./06. [NSW] Super Mario Party # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} (¥5.980)

Top 10

NSW - 8
PS4 - 2
 

hiska-kun

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,410
First Day Sell-through {2019.08.29}

[PS4] Azur Lane: Crosswave # <STG> (Compile Heart) (¥7.800) - 60%

[NSW] [PS4] Dead or School <ACT> (Studio Nanafushi) (¥3.980) - 40%

____________

{2019.08.30}
[NSW] Astral Chain # <ACT> (Nintendo) (¥7.980) - fairly favorable start
 

Lite_Agent

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,572
Somewhere. I think.
First Day Sell-through {2019.08.29}

[PS4] Azur Lane: Crosswave # <STG> (Compile Heart) (¥7.800) - 60%

[NSW] [PS4] Dead or School <ACT> (Studio Nanafushi) (¥3.980) - 40%

____________

{2019.08.30}
[NSW] Astral Chain # <ACT> (Nintendo) (¥7.980) - fairly favorable start

At first I thought Astral Chain was in Rabbids Land Fire Emblem: Three Houses Retail Land... Looks like decent debut.

Surprised Dead or School is at 40%, that's the kind of game you'd expect to see at 20% or in Bomba Land.

Looks like retailers appropriately gauged demand for Azur Lane.