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metalmonstar

Member
May 17, 2018
580
Prediction ERA is just salty that PS4 may not pass PS3 sales or 10 million like they thought when it launched.

I think the fact of the matter is these sales milestones are only really important to us. The companies don't care about them with the exception of occasional PR.
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
Prediction ERA is just salty that PS4 may not pass PS3 sales or 10 million like they thought when it launched.

I think the fact of the matter is these sales milestones are only really important to us. The companies don't care about them with the exception of occasional PR.

To be fair I think in the early days people's expectations were much lower than where the PS4 has ended up. It had a really slow start.
 

Marmoka

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,010
What the hell?? I never expected to see these 3DS and PS4 numbers ever again. I expected the 3DS to die before PS4.

And PS5 is not out yet,... Shouldn't these PS4 numbers be more normal after the PS5's release? Life gives us a lot of surprises
 
Oct 26, 2017
7,981
What the hell?? I never expected to see these 3DS and PS4 numbers ever again. I expected the 3DS to die before PS4.

And PS5 is not out yet,... Shouldn't these PS4 numbers be more normal after the PS5's release? Life gives us a lot of surprises

Seems like Japan isn't getting any units, best selling on Amazon is a 500GB PS4 Slim for ¥46,800, which is about 50% over the normal price.
 

Deleted member 15360

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,477
If Switch being a portable was the main contributor to its domination, the Lite would have been ahead of the original model. The games on it just appeal to the Japanese market more.

The switch selling point is the portability.

Both switch models offers portability, why will anyone buy a lite when the other is superior


Remove the portability the switch won't sell the way it did (would had been good)

Remove the home console factor, the switch would had sold almost the same

Hybrid nature is selling point but portability in Japan plays a big factor
 
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Deleted member 15360

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,477
It's 10k yen cheaper which is a substantial amount.
The Switch selling point is being a hybrid

Yes I know.

My point is If a hypothetical scenario switch main model discontinue and only switch lite from now onwards is available in Japan , will the sales decrease ?

Maybe games like ring fit audience might buy less
 

Zelretch

Member
Oct 25, 2017
621
To be fair I think in the early days people's expectations were much lower than where the PS4 has ended up. It had a really slow start.

To be honest no one thought at the time that it will recieve all of the biggest third party titles in japan, most of them exclusively, either. Which also helped to not have high expectations. Still it did recieve them but still couldnt reach a worst console with worst support so i wonder how much greater decline will the ps5 have.
 

Deleted member 15360

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,477
To be honest no one thought at the time that it will recieve all of the biggest third party titles in japan, most of them exclusively, either. Which also helped to not have high expectations. Still it did recieve them but still couldnt reach a worst console with worst support so i wonder how much greater decline will the ps5 have.

Apart from monster Hunter, all big game trailer were shown in early years

People knew what was going to come
 

Fisico

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,106
Paris
Yes I know.

My point is If a hypothetical scenario switch main model discontinue and only switch lite from now onwards is available in Japan , will the sales decrease ?

Maybe games like ring fit audience might buy less

That hypothetical scenario doesn't make any sense, especially as we seem to be due a new SKU which will still be hybrid early next year, but yes it would decrease.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
My point is If a hypothetical scenario switch main model discontinue and only switch lite from now onwards is available in Japan , will the sales decrease ?
Yes, that goes without saying. The JP saw the OG as more appealing than the Lite so if the later is the only SKU remaining, sales would decrease.
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
It's the convenience of a versatile console designed with the goal to adapt to modern lifestyle.

Reminder of what happened in Japan to the last Nintendo handheld console when it launched at ¥25,000:
T1pOiLM.jpg
 
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Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
It's the convenience of a versatile console designed with the goal to adapt to modern lifestyle.

Reminder of what happened in Japan to the previous Nintendo handheld console when it launched at ¥25,000:
T1pOiLM.jpg
Yeah, the Wii, a home console, started significantly stronger than the 3DS, a portable platform. Both were priced the same.

Software and pricing are far more important factor imo with software being the #1.
 

zroid

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
5,785
Canada
Yes I know.

My point is If a hypothetical scenario switch main model discontinue and only switch lite from now onwards is available in Japan , will the sales decrease ?

Maybe games like ring fit audience might buy less
I certainly think so. Impossible to estimate by how much, because obviously some fraction of OG model consumers would shift to the Lite (we saw this when OG stocks were very low). But IMO the considerable price difference between the two models indicates that there is much greater interest in the OG model which cannot be solely explained by consumers simply preferring a handheld with the bonus of TV compatibility. The OG Switch is the device that has fascinated consumers, full stop.
 

Zelretch

Member
Oct 25, 2017
621
Apart from monster Hunter, all big game trailer were shown in early years

People knew what was going to come

that was +1 year after release, before that the expectations were really low because there was nothing and the release was so weak. People wouldnt guess FF7R, DQXI nor MHW would come out for the console, at best KH3 but that was in a percived development hell. So it was natural at the moment to not expect big things and when the first 2 of them where announced, with Square Enix shaky track record i understand not having expectations of +10m, but +6-8m was what was being considered. Right now it seems to be headed to +9m with MHW added to the line up. Which isn't something to brag about when the last console without those games reached +10m.

We have to see if the startegy of not giving japan anything until the PS5 comes out will work but even with in best case scenarios a decline should be expected and the question right now is how big it will be. There is no more "returning series to home console" types of bullets and the only think i see left as truly disruptor is if Sony parent gets harder with Sony Music (Aniplex for what truly matters) and forces it to work more in hand with SIE.
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
Yeah, the Wii, a home console, started significantly stronger than the 3DS, a portable platform. Both were priced the same.

Software and pricing are far more important factor imo with software being the #1.
Without software the hardware would be just a doorstep.
In the case of Nintendo's strategy since early '00s it assumes critical importance the meaningful purpose chosen (need to be something consumers at large identify as a desirable advantage or a convenience) and the execution on how to achieve it through the integration between custom hardware features and software that leverage them.
All the Nintendo consoles released since 2004, successes and failures, follow this model with 3DS being a partial exception (3DS' unique selling point had no other purpose than to be a differentiator factor from the coming onslaught of the smartphone revolution).
The price need to match the perceived value but the real challenge is to create value.
 
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Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
To be honest no one thought at the time that it will recieve all of the biggest third party titles in japan, most of them exclusively, either. Which also helped to not have high expectations. Still it did recieve them but still couldnt reach a worst console with worst support so i wonder how much greater decline will the ps5 have.

Sure, the impact of DQXI and MHW are obvious if you look at a chart too.
that was +1 year after release, before that the expectations were really low because there was nothing and the release was so weak. People wouldnt guess FF7R, DQXI nor MHW would come out for the console, at best KH3 but that was in a percived development hell. So it was natural at the moment to not expect big things and when the first 2 of them where announced, with Square Enix shaky track record i understand not having expectations of +10m, but +6-8m was what was being considered. Right now it seems to be headed to +9m with MHW added to the line up. Which isn't something to brag about when the last console without those games reached +10m.

We have to see if the startegy of not giving japan anything until the PS5 comes out will work but even with in best case scenarios a decline should be expected and the question right now is how big it will be. There is no more "returning series to home console" types of bullets and the only think i see left as truly disruptor is if Sony parent gets harder with Sony Music (Aniplex for what truly matters) and forces it to work more in hand with SIE.

Heh, I think people assume that would go in a direction that would primarily benefit PlayStation instead of leveraging SIE resources outside of PlayStation as well. MLB already shows that SIE can be flexible for licensees, and it's important to keep in mind that Aniplex isn't the only stakeholders in the properties they deal with.
 

WestEgg

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,047
Prediction ERA is just salty that PS4 may not pass PS3 sales or 10 million like they thought when it launched.

I think the fact of the matter is these sales milestones are only really important to us. The companies don't care about them with the exception of occasional PR.
Somewhere, a frog bellows in fury.
 

Zelretch

Member
Oct 25, 2017
621
Heh, I think people assume that would go in a direction that would primarily benefit PlayStation instead of leveraging SIE resources outside of PlayStation as well. MLB already shows that SIE can be flexible for licensees, and it's important to keep in mind that Aniplex isn't the only stakeholders in the properties they deal with.

i agree it is not likely, in early drafts of my comment i label it as miracle because i really don't see it having huge chances of happening. But also i can't think of any other event that can make up for the natural decline Sony's consoles are showing, decline of third parties (we have yet to see if sequels to the comeback games like MHW and DQXI show improvements, but i feel we are headed to declines since the nobelty wears a bit off), limited first party appeal (GoT being a recent exeption but still not enough) and Sony's doubleing down on characteristics for their consoles that don't appeal to japanese audiences. With what is happening in 2020 one never knows but truly i can't see the PS4 9m as a success nor the PS5 as a continuation of Sony's decline in the region.
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
i agree it is not likely, in early drafts of my comment i label it as miracle because i really don't see it having huge chances of happening. But also i can't think of any other event that can make up for the natural decline Sony's consoles are showing, decline of third parties (we have yet to see if sequels to the comeback games like MHW and DQXI show improvements, but i feel we are headed to declines since the nobelty wears a bit off), limited first party appeal (GoT being a recent exeption but still not enough) and Sony's doubleing down on characteristics for their consoles that don't appeal to japanese audiences. With what is happening in 2020 one never knows but truly i can't see the PS4 9m as a success nor the PS5 as a continuation of Sony's decline in the region.

To be honest, I'm not sure how much difference it would make. Anime games tend to be primarily PS4 anyway and I doubt SIE would dedicate the AAA resources to Anime games that people wish they would.

My point was more in general to the people assuming that Sony mandating SIE support Aniplex/SME with their anime endeavours would equate to Aniplex handing licenses to SIE for them to make AAA PlayStation exclusives where that possibly wouldn't the case. You could end up seeing SIE developers working on Aniplex published games that aren't necessarily tied to PlayStation.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,410
Are there weekly numbers for any systems between 3DS and DS? DS just seems too far off on it's own to expect them to get within a million of crossing (though I could be proven wrong).

Maybe some dotted lines representing the total sales of a few older systems can be added as filler until the Switch (hopefully) gets within DS spitting distance? For example the graph could count down to when the Switch passes the total sales of the SNES, than NES, etc.

It's not a bad idea. I can try, but I also care about presentation (lol) and maybe the graph gets too saturated. Maybe I'll do a different graph for this if so.

To be fair, after beating 3DS this graph will be really boring since as you said NDS will be too far away. So, maybe I'll make it rest for a while and do the total sales in the meanwhile.

Maybe we can get a Switch VS 3DS+Wii U graph once Switch passes 3DS aligned, sort of a Nintendo current gen VS last gen? It might be interesting to see how things stack up, kind of like Animal Crossing VS PokéSmash

This is also a good idea I want to try.
 

Bruno MB

PAL Charts Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
956
PREDICTION LEAGUE SEPTEMBER + LAST WEEK OF AUGUST 2020

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Aug 24 to Sep 27):

[PS4 + NSW] Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Remastered Edition (32 days)
[PS4] The Legend of Heroes: Hajimari no Kiseki (32 days)
[PS4] Marvel's Avengers (24 days)
[NSW] Minecraft Dungeons: Hero Edition (20 days)
[NSW] Pro Yakyuu Famista 2020 (11 days)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Deadline: 24 hours before Media Create Sales: Week 35, 2020 thread gets posted.

Attention:
  • Remember for some games it's not only the 1st week.
  • Multiplatform entries are the combined available sales of each platform described.
Rules:
  • Do not edit your post after the deadline. If you do, you'll be disqualified.
  • The official monthly hardware sales will be the sum of weekly numbers for all versions of the system available from Famitsu.
  • The official monthly software sales will be the latest total or the sum of the weekly numbers if the title is release before the period available from the Famitsu Top 30.
  • The official monthly sales for multi-platform releases will be the combined available sales of each platform shown in the title entry.
  • The official monthly sales for games with multiple versions will be the combined available sales of each version shown in the title entry.
  • Any game missing in the Famitsu top 30 will be taken out of the predictions.
 

Tbone5189

Succ-essor
Member
Mar 25, 2020
4,919
It's not a bad idea. I can try, but I also care about presentation (lol) and maybe the graph gets too saturated. Maybe I'll do a different graph for this if so.

To be fair, after beating 3DS this graph will be really boring since as you said NDS will be too far away. So, maybe I'll make it rest for a while and do the total sales in the meanwhile.



This is also a good idea I want to try.

NDS will get smaller and smaller (gap) but like you said it's too big, and will be boring in the next 2 years unless NSW absolutely dominates lol.

What did WiiU do? 3.5mil right, adding those would mean NSW would surpass 27/28mil so I think you should if you want!

Only thing I'm mad about is NSW not beating 3ds much sooner. It could of done it by end of sept if there were no supply issues maybe lol
 

Absolute

Banned
Nov 6, 2017
2,090
Didn't Nintendo mention that most people use the OG Switch as a home console? This seems like a while ago so maybe I'm misremembering.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,410
Powerful Pro Baseball comparison

Separating SKUs (*Blue tones = 2016 entry, Red tones = 2018, Yellow tones = 2020)
2020-08-28-10-02-22.jpg


Combining SKUs
2020-08-28-10-02-43.jpg
 

AquaWateria

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,533
They made a really damn good decision in releasing Powerful Pro Baseball for both the Switch and PS4.

The switch version is just continuing to sell.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,410
First Day Sell-through {2020.08.27}

[PS4] The Legend of Heroes: Hajimari no Kiseki # <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) {2020.08.27} (¥7.800) - 60% stable sales but not attracting new users

[NSW] Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Remastered Edition <RPG> (Square Enix) {2020.08.27} (¥4.800) - 70%
[PS4] Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Remastered Edition <RPG> (Square Enix) {2020.08.27} (¥4.800) - 60%

[PS4] Captain Tsubasa: Rise of New Champions <SPT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2020.08.27} (¥7.600) - 40%
[NSW] Captain Tsubasa: Rise of New Champions <SPT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2020.08.27} (¥7.600) - 30%
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Famitsu Sales: Week 34, 2020 (Aug 17 - Aug 23)

01./01. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2020.03.20} (¥5.980) - 42.863 / 5.594.061 <80-100%> (-60%)
02./02. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure <HOB> (Nintendo) {2019.10.18} (¥7.980) - 30.689 / 1.366.433 <80-100%> (+17%)
03./07. [PS4] Ghost of Tsushima <ADV> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2020.07.17} (¥6.900) - 17.037 / 362.354 <80-100%> (+14%)
04./03. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics <TBL> (Nintendo) {2020.06.05} (¥3.980) - 14.290 / 336.490 <80-100%> (-43%)
05./04. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 13.862 / 3.119.722 <80-100%> (-45%)
06./06. [NSW] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 <SPT> (Konami) {2020.07.09} (¥6.980) - 9.522 / 200.447 <80-100%> (-42%)
07./05. [NSW] Paper Mario: The Origami King <ADV> (Nintendo) {2020.07.17} (¥5.980) - 9.384 / 231.959 <80-100%> (-55%)
08./09. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2019.11.15} (¥5.980) - 8.016 / 3.711.061 <80-100%> (-36%)
09./11. [NSW] Splatoon 2 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} (¥5.980) - 7.459 / 3.537.933 <80-100%> (-35%)
10./08. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 7.230 / 3.803.838 <80-100%> (-43%)
11./12. [NSW] Minecraft # <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} (¥3.600) - 6.404 / 1.482.444 <80-100%> (-37%)
12./10. [NSW] Super Mario Party # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} (¥5.980) - 5.820 / 1.532.953 <80-100%> (-53%)
13./14. [PS4] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 <SPT> (Konami) {2020.07.09} (¥7.980) - 5.366 / 170.534 <80-100%> (-40%)
14./13. [PS4] Mobile Suit Gundam: Extreme Vs. MaxiBoost On # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2020.07.30} (¥8.200) - 4.233 / 155.623 <80-100%> (-58%)
15./00. [NSW] Cupid Parasite # <ADV> (Idea Factory) {2020.08.20} (¥6.500) - 3.538 / NEW <60-80%>
16./18. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 3.498 / 1.633.487 <80-100%> (-33%)
17./15. [NSW] Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version # <SPT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.07.25} (¥5.700) - 3.438 / 480.613 <80-100%> (-52%)
18./16. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe <New Super Mario Bros. U \ New Super Luigi U> <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.01.11} (¥5.980) - 3.250 / 886.614 <80-100%> (-48%)
19./17. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch <HOB> (Nintendo) {2019.12.27} (¥3.480) - 3.061 / 282.487 <80-100%> (-41%)
20./00. [PS4] They Are Billions <SLG> (Spike Chunsoft) {2020.08.20} (¥3.800) - 3.046 / NEW <20-40%>
21./19. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.06.28} (¥5.980) - 2.846 / 956.129 <80-100%> (-43%)
22./21. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.07.19} (¥6.100) - 2.656 / 505.835 <80-100%> (-46%)
23./20. [NSW] Human: Fall Flat <ADV> (Teyon Japan) {2020.06.25} (¥3.500) - 2.098 / 24.337 <80-100%> (-57%)
24./24. [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.10.31} (¥5.980) - 2.073 / 678.086 <80-100%> (-43%)
25./23. [NSW] Ninjala <ACT> (GungHo Online Entertainment) {2020.07.22} (¥3.618) - 1.889 / 23.753 <40-60%> (-49%)
26./00. [NSW] Fitness Boxing <HOB> (Imagineer) {2018.12.20} (¥5.800) - 1.540 / 129.142 <80-100%>
27./00. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2018.11.16} (¥5.980) - 1.449 / 1.742.784 <80-100%>
28./27. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age - Definitive Edition # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.09.27} (¥7.980) - 1.413 / 545.836 <80-100%> (-37%)
29./26. [NSW] Together! The Battle Cats <SLG> (Ponos) {2020.07.16} (¥3.500) - 1.381 / 19.721 <60-80%> (-40%)
30./30. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} (¥5.980) - 1.267 / 2.119.498 <80-100%> (-39%)

Top 30

NSW - 26
PS4 - 4
 

AquaWateria

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,533
Why does Square do this lol.

Are they doing this just to create demand. It seems like every switch game from them is under-shipped.
 

lucancel

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,378
Italy
First Day Sell-through {2020.08.27}

[PS4] The Legend of Heroes: Hajimari no Kiseki # <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) {2020.08.27} (¥7.800) - 60% stable sales but not attracting new users
Expected.
Trails needs changes(a new arc or a more action bs Will be enought?) for new audience since going multi Is out of kondo thoughts lol
 

AquaWateria

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,533
Expected.
Trails needs changes(a new arc or a more action bs Will be enought?) for new audience since going multi Is out of kondo thoughts lol

In order for trails to gain a new audience the series needs to start on a new arc like you said, but also have portable support (I mean like same day release).

Them dropping portable support and staying only playstation home console has shown a decline. Right now it seems like they are in a stagnant position, but I honestly just worry for the future because right now I don't see what their longterm game is.

Also more action isn't gonna help at all imo.
 
Sep 24, 2019
1,840
20./00. [PS4] They Are Billions <SLG> (Spike Chunsoft) {2020.08.20} (¥3.800) - 3.046 / NEW <20-40%>

It sold more then I expected but is still in the obvious region. I don't get whey they decided to put that game on console.
 

D.Lo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,348
Sydney
Prediction ERA is just salty that PS4 may not pass PS3 sales or 10 million like they thought when it launched.

I think the fact of the matter is these sales milestones are only really important to us. The companies don't care about them with the exception of occasional PR.
Like how Nintendo didn't give the DS a tiny extra push to make it the #1 selling device ever over PS2. It could easily have done it with a couple of bundles at good prices. May not have made them much extra money but they'd have grabbed 'all time top seller' bragging rights so easily. Obviously they didn't care at that point, pushing the 3DS was above all else.