Something like best selling 3d zelda would have been better
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Media Create Sales: Week 35, 2018 (Aug 27 - Sep 02)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Persona 5? On a weaker system to boot.
But that's fair. I can't believe it's been close to two months since it released. I'm still trying to finish this damn game!
Maybe DQ11?
Edit: Yeah, DQ11 3DS
Media Create Sales: Week 39, 2017 (Sep 25 - Oct 01)
16./10. [3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.07.29} (¥5.980) - 5.639 / 1.733.552 (-25%)
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Pac-man!
Nintendo: 72,6%
Sony: 27,3%
Microsoft: 0,14%
To be honest, I never understood this weekly thing. It would be a Pac-Man if we actually had all Nintendo systems next to each other and we saw the Nintendo slices forming a Pac-Man, but this pie chart isn't organized that way, so it never works.
P5 was quite the big deal and had a ton of hype before its release....its not just some random NIS RPG that showed up and managed to stay for months in the charts (if thats even the case). Octopath is a title where SE thought even ordering or having around 200k retail copies ready was going to be to risky for a whole months.
Well it was a rhetoric question....yeah the biggest JRPGs of the generation might have this kind of performance but its definitely not the norm.
Square Enix can only blame themselves for Octopath here, it seems like they didn't want it to sell. I wonder what stockholders might be thinking about this.
They wont care as long as SE keeps making that Gacha money and ships enough copies of Tomb Raider and KH3 later this year.
These things only could become an issue if they start overall underperforming and miss target. No matter how much we shit on SE...Octopath still likely outsold whatever they were expecting for Japan - so they are good in that front, actually it did great.
But as always with Nintendo 3rdParty efforts...they rarely go the extra mile when they have a shot of taking advantage of the market situation. SE is one of the biggest publishers and isnt able to sort out the stock situation on a Switch game weeks after launch....difficult to believe.
I think the question was more "What JRPGs debuting below 200k stay in the Top 20 for 2 months?"
Didn't expect that many PS4 games.
Dem Wario legs. 100k is basically a lock.
Dem Wario legs. 100k is basically a lock.
Good opening for winning eleven.
Conan exiles still chugging along.
Switch evergreens still moving well.
Low opening for little dragon's cafe and boruto.
Both switch and ps4 hardware declined.
An average week where hardware saw a decline and evergreens rose a bit.
Conan exiles still chugging along.
Switch evergreens still moving well.
Low opening for little dragon's cafe and boruto.
Both switch and ps4 hardware declined.
An average week where hardware saw a decline and evergreens rose a bit.
I think the real problem with Zelda 1 and 2 is that we dont have any accurate numbers.
Sony is not doing regional price cuts anymore and PS4 is still selling well in west. Going by their fiscal year forecast of 17 million shipped globally I doubt there will be any permanent price cuts this year.
gamedatalibrary
https://sites.google.com/site/gamedatalibrary/game-search
FC The Legend of Zelda [Famicom Disk System] 1.690.000 Nintendo 21/02/1986
FC Zelda II: The Adventure of Link [Famicom Disk System] 1.610.000 Nintendo 14/01/1987
OP
OP
With Famitsu data from 2 decades ago and lack of digital info from Nintendo now, shipment data are the only accurate.
OT could have sold more? Probably.
But it didn't bomb and it sold north of 1 million so all is good at SE.
But it didn't bomb and it sold north of 1 million so all is good at SE.
It's baffling how Square Enix mismanaged this game in Japan.
[FC] The Legend of Zelda (Nintendo) {1986.02.21} - 1.690.000
[SFC] The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past (Nintendo) {1991.11.21} - 1.160.000
Should we include the original Zelda on the NES, since it has sold over 1.6 million units?
Source:
https://sites.google.com/site/gamedatalibrary/game-search
Breath of the Wild Switch might well be at 1.3m retail by the end of the year, if Smash and Pokémon won't cut its legs. Adding eShop and Wii U version sales, the game is gonna be the best-selling Zelda in Japan too.
Kinda feel like the end of a journey, though there's still two milestones left: Zelda 1 and 2. I don't think there's any doubts left it will end up the best-seller (probably sometime next year, or this year if we add digital sales that we don't have).
Nah, just blindly posting something without double-checking (often without properly crediting) in a rush for clicks.
Switch HW Sales(Jul 9-Sep 2,2018)
Switch SW Sales(Jul 9-Sep 2,2018)
Overall Switch this year ended up moving as much software as it did last year despite moving much lower amount of hardware.
I had personally predicted a much stronger period for the Switch in terms of both hardware and software. Nintendo ended up selling around 23% less hardware compared to last year, personally I had predicted over 550K would move during the period and ended up way off.
Software
In terms of the Software its remarkable how close 2018 is to 2017 - we are talking 1.414.293 vs 1.410.156, whilist yours truelly thought it would be over >1.64M.
I had thought that with the Switch being the only system during the vacation - retailers and Nintendo would be more aggressive and discount games or the Switch temproarly to create events around their stores. Since there was no major game launching this year on any system - I'm suprised that we didn't see a bigger effort from retailers to move both hardware and Switch games considering there was nothing else coming.
Labo Corner
I also didn't see any sort of discount for Labo for Obon which is something I thought they'd do to get more kids with the kits. Overall I don't think retailers have fully sold their first shipment but don't appear to be in a hurry to use bombabins, expecting Labo Corners to become a thing for retailers once they have to sell and market 4 different kits. I'm still banking on Variety and Robot dropping in price once Vehicle comes out, but we shall see.
eShop wins this holiday
Personally because of this I anticipate eShop did the relative best(not in terms of overall value but just in terms of growth compared to last year), Nintendo had a couple of their titles discounted by 33% on the eShop(MK8D; 1-2 Switch; Arms), a shortage of Octopath physical copies which probably lead to decent sales on their eShop, and a bunch of well received indie games launching Overcooked 2, Hollow Knight, Dead Cells - Overcooked 2 in particular hasn't exited the top 3 on the eShop since launching; Hollow Knight is still top 10 and Dead Cells just launched and is doing great despite the competition. Honestly Overcooked 2 is the type of game that could easily sell >100K physical lifetime if they printed it. Nintendo has done a lot to popularlize indie games with their News Feed, Events and YouTube coverage.
September October period
Next 8 weeks should be strong for the Switch, I think we will see big numbers for the end of the quarter and Super Mario Party's launch. Overall I'm predcting something like 13% growth YoY from 2017, when it sold
442.948 mainly due to the Super Mario Odessey launch(126.701) and end of quarter week(73.231). We have a much bigger variety of titles compared to 2017 and this should help with maintaining a higher baseline with similar highs. I think for Super Mario Party we will see >100K sales; while end of quarter will be >70K while the baseline for the rest of the weeks will end up at around 55K. 3DS(2012) will still end up the best hardware seller but only by about 6% as Switch will beging to outperform 3DS's 2012, because it's entering the strong period of the year with much bigger titles compared to 3DS which only had Animal Crossing as a hardware mover in 2012. On the Switch I think we have many games that could end up selling >1M lifetime - YW4, Smash Ultimate, Pokemon Lets Go, Dragon Quest Builders 2, Super Mario Party, with an outside chance of Labo Kits also selling strongly in the fall.
On the software front Switch(2018) will end up the winner as 2017 did 1.11M while in 2012 3DS sold 1.26M units of physical software. Last year SMO & Splatoon 2 made up over 50% of the overall sales during this period, the 3rd best selling game was Pokken with 100K sales.
Prediction for next 8 weeks:
1) Super Mario Party >650K
2) Drive Kit >250K
3) Splatoon 2 >230K
4) Minecraft >200K
5) FIFA 19 >100K
6) Mario Tennis Aces >95K
7) DBFZ >85K
8) Dark Souls >85K
9) Taiko >80K
10) Valkyria Chronicles 4 Warriors Orochi 3 The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild >75K
So I'm going with around 2M units of software for the next 8 weeks. Banking on a big Super Mario Party launch, Drive Kit ending up more appealing than Variety & Robot combined, a couple of evergreens continuing to be constantly in the top 5(Minecraft & Splatoon 2), MK8D hanging inside the top 10, FIFA 19 performing much stronger right out of the gate and a whole bunch of games both old and new doing strongly. Games like Kirby, SMO, Taiko might drop out of the top 20, but they'd continue to sell around 5K per week outside of the charts.
Overall 2018 Switch remained ahead of 2017 numbers despite Splatoon 2, while SMO launch was huge it only came during the last week of the period we are looking at. At the same time we have a bigger variety of titles that will sell close to 100K, last year the 5th best selling game during this period was Fire Emblem Warriors - 53K sales.
Paid Online Effect
Personally I think we will see a major reveal for Splatoon 2 tomorrow, and the paid online might become another source of demand for the Switch. There is obviously the NES Classic games but the other long term effect is Splatoon 2 owners having to sub. All those should get a discount as paid subscribers which might lead to digital sales really starting to take of on the Switch in Japan. I'm cautiously optimistic that we will get at least 10% discount which should help some transition to digital purchases especially for certain Nintendo games at launch. Overall next quarter's results for digital revenue should be interesting and should help us to better anticipate what might happen in the fall.
Code:
Week 28 - 50.239(+14%)
Week 29 - 53.745(+7%)
Week 30 - 48.370(-10%)
Week 31 - 50.799(+5%)
Week 32 - 50.143(-1%)
Week 33 - 54.647(+9%)
Week 34 - 46.259(-15%)
Week 35 - 42.151(-9%)
TOTAL: 396.353
Average p/w: 49.544
Code:
Week 28 - 245.654(+126%)
Week 29 - 210.786(-14%)
Week 30 - 170.554(-31%)
Week 31 - 187.869(+10%)
Week 32 - 177.606(-5%)
Week 33 - 183.500(+3%)
Week 34 - 128.783(-30%)
Week 35 - 109.541(-15%)
TOTAL: 1.414.293
Average p/w: 176.786Overall Switch this year ended up moving as much software as it did last year despite moving much lower amount of hardware.
I had personally predicted a much stronger period for the Switch in terms of both hardware and software. Nintendo ended up selling around 23% less hardware compared to last year, personally I had predicted over 550K would move during the period and ended up way off.
Software
In terms of the Software its remarkable how close 2018 is to 2017 - we are talking 1.414.293 vs 1.410.156, whilist yours truelly thought it would be over >1.64M.
I had thought that with the Switch being the only system during the vacation - retailers and Nintendo would be more aggressive and discount games or the Switch temproarly to create events around their stores. Since there was no major game launching this year on any system - I'm suprised that we didn't see a bigger effort from retailers to move both hardware and Switch games considering there was nothing else coming.
Labo Corner
I also didn't see any sort of discount for Labo for Obon which is something I thought they'd do to get more kids with the kits. Overall I don't think retailers have fully sold their first shipment but don't appear to be in a hurry to use bombabins, expecting Labo Corners to become a thing for retailers once they have to sell and market 4 different kits. I'm still banking on Variety and Robot dropping in price once Vehicle comes out, but we shall see.
eShop wins this holiday
Personally because of this I anticipate eShop did the relative best(not in terms of overall value but just in terms of growth compared to last year), Nintendo had a couple of their titles discounted by 33% on the eShop(MK8D; 1-2 Switch; Arms), a shortage of Octopath physical copies which probably lead to decent sales on their eShop, and a bunch of well received indie games launching Overcooked 2, Hollow Knight, Dead Cells - Overcooked 2 in particular hasn't exited the top 3 on the eShop since launching; Hollow Knight is still top 10 and Dead Cells just launched and is doing great despite the competition. Honestly Overcooked 2 is the type of game that could easily sell >100K physical lifetime if they printed it. Nintendo has done a lot to popularlize indie games with their News Feed, Events and YouTube coverage.
September October period
Next 8 weeks should be strong for the Switch, I think we will see big numbers for the end of the quarter and Super Mario Party's launch. Overall I'm predcting something like 13% growth YoY from 2017, when it sold
442.948 mainly due to the Super Mario Odessey launch(126.701) and end of quarter week(73.231). We have a much bigger variety of titles compared to 2017 and this should help with maintaining a higher baseline with similar highs. I think for Super Mario Party we will see >100K sales; while end of quarter will be >70K while the baseline for the rest of the weeks will end up at around 55K. 3DS(2012) will still end up the best hardware seller but only by about 6% as Switch will beging to outperform 3DS's 2012, because it's entering the strong period of the year with much bigger titles compared to 3DS which only had Animal Crossing as a hardware mover in 2012. On the Switch I think we have many games that could end up selling >1M lifetime - YW4, Smash Ultimate, Pokemon Lets Go, Dragon Quest Builders 2, Super Mario Party, with an outside chance of Labo Kits also selling strongly in the fall.
On the software front Switch(2018) will end up the winner as 2017 did 1.11M while in 2012 3DS sold 1.26M units of physical software. Last year SMO & Splatoon 2 made up over 50% of the overall sales during this period, the 3rd best selling game was Pokken with 100K sales.
Prediction for next 8 weeks:
1) Super Mario Party >650K
2) Drive Kit >250K
3) Splatoon 2 >230K
4) Minecraft >200K
5) FIFA 19 >100K
6) Mario Tennis Aces >95K
7) DBFZ >85K
8) Dark Souls >85K
9) Taiko >80K
10) Valkyria Chronicles 4 Warriors Orochi 3 The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild >75K
So I'm going with around 2M units of software for the next 8 weeks. Banking on a big Super Mario Party launch, Drive Kit ending up more appealing than Variety & Robot combined, a couple of evergreens continuing to be constantly in the top 5(Minecraft & Splatoon 2), MK8D hanging inside the top 10, FIFA 19 performing much stronger right out of the gate and a whole bunch of games both old and new doing strongly. Games like Kirby, SMO, Taiko might drop out of the top 20, but they'd continue to sell around 5K per week outside of the charts.
Overall 2018 Switch remained ahead of 2017 numbers despite Splatoon 2, while SMO launch was huge it only came during the last week of the period we are looking at. At the same time we have a bigger variety of titles that will sell close to 100K, last year the 5th best selling game during this period was Fire Emblem Warriors - 53K sales.
Paid Online Effect
Personally I think we will see a major reveal for Splatoon 2 tomorrow, and the paid online might become another source of demand for the Switch. There is obviously the NES Classic games but the other long term effect is Splatoon 2 owners having to sub. All those should get a discount as paid subscribers which might lead to digital sales really starting to take of on the Switch in Japan. I'm cautiously optimistic that we will get at least 10% discount which should help some transition to digital purchases especially for certain Nintendo games at launch. Overall next quarter's results for digital revenue should be interesting and should help us to better anticipate what might happen in the fall.
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Ok, so it's not just me that's having this concern that we're intentionally leaving out [FC] and [SFC] versions of it.
I think they'd be pretty upset if Bokujou sold as poorly as this :P
Sep and Oct are among the slower months; there's no way those game are selling so much. Mario Party won't sell that much in such a short timeframe. Splatoon 2 would need around 28k weekly to reach that number; Tennis above 11k units; Labo won't set the chart on fire in the short-term so high numbers are not to be expected.
Yeah Nocturnal , I am going to side with sfortunato on this one. 650k is too much for Mario Party in its first month. September and October are not big month.
Now, November and December will get insane so the impossible could happen but only during those two months.
His predictions are always overestimating sales. He predicted Tennis and MC at 500k and 400k respectively by the end of August.
Above 100k for sure, yeah. But what really matters are its legs during the holidays and beyond. I think this game will do great through word of mouth.
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This Zelda comparison is for Media Create (no data for NES games).
For the first two Zelda we have to compare shipments, not sales. We can compare it by the next Nintendo's quarter meeting.
Considering only retail sales, not yet.
[WIU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2016.06.23} (¥3.600) - 372.913
Slow week. Hoping the switch can stay above 40K. Evergreen SW as strong as ever and minecraft is breasting. PS4 numbers aren't great but also not really surprising.
I guess with the direct we'll finally find out if Nintendo has any more SW this year. NSMBU would move a lot of SW and even help push HW IMO.
I guess with the direct we'll finally find out if Nintendo has any more SW this year. NSMBU would move a lot of SW and even help push HW IMO.
At this point last year we knew about Kirby being Spring 2018.
For the next months, Kirby was confirmed for Q1, DQB and Bayo2 were announced.
At the same point this year we know about FE being Spring 2019.
we'll see if that gets confirmed for Q1 and if more games will be announced.
Really? I was expecting q1 2019 to be touched on in a nov/Dec direct. Not tomorrow's