Sure, but then look at the sales of late ports of Dragon Quest Heroes and Dragon Quest Builders on Switch.
.... which were absolutely fine for what they were.
Sure, but then look at the sales of late ports of Dragon Quest Heroes and Dragon Quest Builders on Switch.
there's a good deal of difference in desirability in the games you listed and DQ11, even on the PS4Sure, but then look at the sales of late ports of Dragon Quest Heroes and Dragon Quest Builders on Switch.
When DQXI launched last year the PS4 was at 5 million. If the Switch releases next year it will still be on a user base less than 10 million. A difference sure but one easily mitigated by a 2 year release gap.
Thanks! Looking back at the thread I decided to throw in Marvelous too. They might be an edge case for "big" 3rd party but they also seem a bit more significant than the next rung down (Spike Chunsoft, Arc System Works, D3 Publisher, Kadokawa, Gungho, etc).Thanks for putting this together. Puts things in good perspective.
Sure, but then look at the sales of late ports of Dragon Quest Heroes and Dragon Quest Builders on Switch.
That big audience are the people not truly fascinated by the modern-looking.Not the same audience. DQXI PS4 sales showed that there is still a big audience out there that hasn't played a modern-looking DQ game and sales of both versions showed that another big audience hasn't played the game.
there's a good deal of difference in desirability in the games you listed and DQ11, even on the PS4
You said it. They were late ports. Just look at the gap between Bomberman on Switch and the late PS4 port.
Late ports in Japan are doing mediocre numbers. Games like DBX2 are the exception not the norm.
Heroes II and Builders were on multiple platforms besides PS4 already, including a handheld. The same can't really be said for UE4 DQXI. It also sounds like DQXIS is going to get more additional stuff than the DQ spinoffs did when they were ported to Switch.
I'd argue it is, it's a fundamentally different game visually and mechanically. It's sort of like FFFXV and FFXV Pocket Edition in some ways.I don't think the "UE4" distinction is all that meaningful and so far VA is the only thing they've announced for the Switch version.
Historically, Dragon Quest has always been developed for the platform with the most Japanese players. For years that was the Famicom and Super Famicom; then it was the PlayStation, the PlayStation 2, and the Nintendo DS. But times have changed, and Horii said that "in this day and age… when you think of where the biggest market is, at least for North America, we can say it's for PS4 and PC, which is why we're bringing the game to those platforms."
I'd argue it is, it's a fundamentally different game visually and mechanically. It's sort of like FFFXV and FFXV Pocket Edition in some ways.
Also if DQXIS only did 300k that's a lower ratio from PS4 than Builders or Heroes were.
when the differences between DQ11 "UE4" and "3DS" is this bigI don't think the "UE4" distinction is all that meaningful and so far VA is the only thing they've announced for the Switch version.
much better than some spinoffs. it's not that controversial an expectation, late port or notThey did a small fraction of the original release. What numbers are people expecting for the Switch version of DQXI?
Oh, so NOW the 3DS version doesn't count? ;)I'm expecting a lower ratio but both Heroes and Builders had PS3 versions too and in the case of Builders it did over 100k, whilst the PS4 version only did just over 200k. If you took the ratio of Switch builders(still under 100k?) and adapted that to DQXI you'd still be looking at less than 400k.
when the differences between DQ11 "UE4" and "3DS" is this big
the distinction is pretty damn important
much better than some spinoffs. it's not that controversial an expectation, late port or not
I would honestly expect the ratio for DQXIS to be better than the ratios for DQH1+2 and DQB, since it's a mainline game with additional features.
Not sure what its sales range will end up being, but 300k seems low.
You're expecting a smaller ratio because of 3DS but you refuse to factor 3DS into deriving that ratio? How do you rationalize that?I'd expect it to be lower on the basis that the 3DS had a bigger audience than Vita/PS4/PS3 combined and DQXI was on 3DS whereas the others were not.
it's not about being insignificant, it's about DQH and DQB not being good barometers for how DQ11S will performDQXI Switch could easily triple the numbers of Heroes and Builders on Switch and still be relatively insignificant.
I'd expect it to be lower on the basis that the 3DS had a bigger audience than Vita/PS4/PS3 combined and DQXI was on 3DS whereas the others were not.
I think we need to get a better read on what DQXIS actually brings to the table before projecting it out. If it's basically just the International version in terms of improvements I wouldn't expect much at all, like the DQ spinoff ports. If it has major content and design additions, think DQVIII 3DS level upgrades, then it gets a lot more interesting.
You're expecting a smaller ratio because of 3DS but you refuse to factor 3DS into deriving that ratio? How do you rationalize that?
when the differences between DQ11 "UE4" and "3DS" is this big
the distinction is pretty damn important
much better than some spinoffs. it's not that controversial an expectation, late port or not
I think you're actually overshooting yourself, the ratios are smaller than you remember.Did you skip my last post where I said you can throw in the 3DS version but then you have to throw in the Vita version of Builders?
If you do you're still looking at a ratio lower than 1:6 which means you would still be expecting less than 500k.
I think you're actually overshooting yourself, the ratios are smaller than you remember.
If we do the math using Famitsu (thnx Game Data Library), I'm sure MC are more up to date but they're also more difficult to look up:
This is actually the ballpark I'd expect for a basic no frills just VA port. A 1/6 ratio would actually be 560,002 so that could still be over 500k easily. That's actually more what I'd expect with significant content additions, maybe higher even.
We'll see. I don't think they'd add an S for just that though, I'm expecting more.I was being generous because I knew the rest were over 600k and DQ Heroes 1 & 2 were at:
078./000. [NSW] Dragon Quest Heroes I & II for Nintendo Switch <Dragon Quest Heroes: The World Tree's Woe and the Blight Below \ Dragon Quest Heroes II> <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.03.03} (¥8.800) - 75.309 / NEW (25.606 <48,56%>)
as of the end of 2017 going by MC.
You're right that significant content additions would move the needle, but I don't think that's happening. Most likely scenario is that it's the international version with JP VA instead of English.
I don't understand why the overexpectations for this port. It's not like most Switch ports are "huge", they just do well for what they are. Even MonHun didn't break 300K.
It did in shipments. And unlike DQXIS that actually was a 3DS port.I don't understand why the overexpectations for this port. It's not like most Switch ports are "huge", they just do well for what they are. Even MonHun didn't break 300K.
How many people do care so much about the UE4 graphics tho? If Japan cared so much about graphics the PS4 wouldn't be underwhelming in hardware sales. A lot of fans even prefer the 3DS style.It did in shipments. And unlike DQXIS that actually was a 3DS port.
Yeah, I don't think any of that is happening. 1M seems more likely.Ehhh, go into other threads and people are expecting it(the game, not the Switch SKU) to easily clear 2 million outside of Japan and for it to be the most successful DQ ever. All seems unlikely to me...
Except DQXI overperformed on PS4 and underperformed on 3DS. MHW also overperformed, outselling both versions of XX combined and doing similar to X. Maybe Japan cares more about visuals than we give them credit for?How many people do care so much about the UE4 graphics tho? If Japan cared so much about graphics the PS4 wouldn't be underwhelming in hardware sales. A lot of fans even prefer the 3DS style.
I also think MonHun is a game that makes much more sense for people to double dip considering it's a multiplayer experience and more hardcore aimed.
PS4 audience is different from the portable one. A lot of AAA/high graphics games overperform on PS4 even with the smaller (and more gamer) userbase -- just take a look at this week's number 1.Except DQXI overperformed on PS4 and underperformed on 3DS. MHW also overperformed, outselling both versions of XX combined and doing similar to X. Maybe Japan cares more about visuals than we give them credit for?
I don't necessarily disagree with that but I also don't think you handwave away audience like that. The Switch demographic actually skews older and more male like a PlayStation rather than the usual Nintendo platform. There are moves to changing that and expanding into family demographics this year, some of which we've already had to mixed results (Labo) or good results (Taiko, Minecraft). Pokémon will no doubt nove the needle for everyone.PS4 audience is different from the portable one. A lot of AAA/high graphics games overperform on PS4 even with the smaller (and more gamer) userbase -- just take a look at this week's number 1.
You're also not telling the whole story about DQXI as they missed the train for a good date to release it for 3DS. I don't think the game's overall performance was that good considering these are two completely different games and still did less than IX (that also sold 1M in the west before the "but international sales" argument come up, which I don't see XI selling much more).
Easy, they'd do it like GenU. Saying it's handheld and that you can play it anywhere is enough, without even talking about styles or any unique gameplay.I can't imagine how they'd advertise a non-World game on non-Switch systems.
or if they would at all. but they'd demo the game on PS4s at the same time
Or there's more factors at play than that.Except DQXI overperformed on PS4 and underperformed on 3DS. MHW also overperformed, outselling both versions of XX combined and doing similar to X. Maybe Japan cares more about visuals than we give them credit for?
It'll do better by far on the Switch.I guess it's just weird to promise a multi platform port as strong switch support planned.
Predictions (Sep 24 - Sep 30)
1[PS4] The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel IV - The End of Saga < 120k
2[PS4] Warriors Orochi 4 <100k
3[PS4] Utawarerumono Zan <75K
4[PS4] FIFA 19 <60k
https://twitter.com/GameDataLibrary/status/1043919887691894789
PS4 The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel III 104.401 145.043
Da fuck is Detroit doing there OoComG! Week Sales, 2018 (Sep 17 - Sep 23)
01/01 [PS4] Marvel's Spider-Man - 66 pt (-47 pt)
02/04 [NSW] Minecraft - 26 pt (+7 pt)
03/02 [PS4] Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 25 pt (-43 pt)
04/ R. [PS4] Detroit: Become Human (normal version) - 23 pt
05/03 [PS4] Conan Outcasts - 18 pt (-6 pt)
06/ N [PS4] Atelier: The Alchemist of Arland 1-2-3 DX Premium Box - 16 pt
07/ R. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 10 pt
08/ N [NSW] Atelier: The Alchemist of Arland 1-2-3 DX Premium Box - 9 pt
09/12 [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! - 8 pt (=)
10/ N [NSW] Xenoblade 2: Torna - The Golden Country -7 pt
11/ R. [3DS] WarioWare Gold - 7 pt
12/ R. [PS4] Winning Eleven 2019 - 6 pt
13/ N [PS4] Steins;Gate Elite - 6pt
14/11 [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 6 pt (-2 pt)
15/ R. [NSW] My Hero Academia: One's Justice - 6 pt
16/ N [PSV] La Corda d'Oro 3: Another Sky feat. (normal version) - 5 pt
17/ N [PSV] La Corda d'Oro 3: Full Voice Special (normal version) - 5 pt
18/ R. [PS4] Rainbow Six Siege Advanced Edition - 5 pt
19/ R. [NSW] Captain Toad: Treasure's Tracker - 5 pt
20/10 [NSW] UNDERTALE - 5 pt (-4 pt)
PS4: 9 (-2)
NSW: 8 (+2)
PSV: 2 (+1)
3DS: 1 (-1)
ComG! Week Sales, 2018 (Sep 10 - Sep 16)
https://www.resetera.com/threads/me...018-sep-03-sep-09.67962/page-10#post-12726491
I guess COMG had a sale on Detroit. That would make the most sense.
Crazy high. Hopefully there will be a more wider sale at some point so we see it go back into the top 20 for some up-to-date LTD numbers. It must be comfortably north of 100k by nowI guess COMG had a sale on Detroit. That would make the most sense.
Good hold for Spiderman, but that game didn't do a thing for PS4 sales. This was supposed to be the game aimed at a casual audience that would push PS4 sales. It didn't.
I don't understand the gif. Is that not right? Look at everyone saying the PS4 will win the next NPD because of Spiderman. In Japan it doesn't seem like anyone raced out to get a PS4 for Spiderman