Media Create Sales: Week 39, 2019 (Sep 23 - Sep 29)

Zedark · Oct 3, 2019

LittleAlchemist said:
Sorry if I missed this, but do we know why sales of this entry declined over past ones? Or any good guesses as to why? Even if we assumed high digital sales it seems like a big drop from Fates and a small one from Awakening.

We'll have to see. Digital estimates when comparing with SMM2 have put it at really large digital shares, possibly at or above 50% - but this is with some assumptions on SMM2 digital. We will have to wait and see until the financial report to get a good handle on that.

As to why it could decrease, it's a good question. In general, the Western boost that games have gotten on Switch compared to 3DS isn't applicable in Japan to nearly the same degree, and FE sales have been quite different in Japan compared to the rest of the world in general. I don't have a good reason why this one would have decreased - assuming it actually did decrease and it wasn't digital taking up the sales (as I laid out above).

Dwebble · Oct 3, 2019

LittleAlchemist said:
Sorry if I missed this, but do we know why sales of this entry declined over past ones? Or any good guesses as to why? Even if we assumed high digital sales it seems like a big drop from Fates and a small one from Awakening.

High digital sales may be understating it if the voucher campaign had a similar impact on FE as it did Mario Maker.

LittleAlchemist · Oct 3, 2019

Zedark said:
We'll have to see. Digital estimates when comparing with SMM2 have put it at really large digital shares, possibly at or above 50% - but this is with some assumptions on SMM2 digital. We will have to wait and see until the financial report to get a good handle on that.

As to why it could decrease, it's a good question. In general, the Western boost that games have gotten on Switch compared to 3DS isn't applicable in Japan to nearly the same degree, and FE sales have been quite different in Japan compared to the rest of the world in general. I don't have a good reason why this one would have decreased - assuming it actually did decrease and it wasn't digital taking up the sales (as I laid out above).

Yeah if it has a 40% digital ratio it would be at Awakening levels. 50% and it would be pretty close to Fates. So that would lineup pretty well if digital was the case in such a scenario.

What also sort of surprises me though is that it looks like while the game has decent legs, there is not as big a boost as I'd expect during hardware sales spikes or during the introduction of new hardware. So I guess it isn't an install base issue? It's still a decent boos though, last week was 26% iirc

Chris1964 · Oct 3, 2019

z0m3le said:
Well Fromsoft already had a studio port their game, that is how Bethesda gets their games on the Switch, so I don't see a problem if Fromsoft makes something and has it release on the Switch again.

Fron has nothing in common with Bethesda when it comes to Switch support.

Deleted member 37917 · Oct 3, 2019

I would bet that there won't be any other From game coming to Switch than Dark Souls 2; at best.
It's unfortunate but I think it's time to give up.

z0m3le · Oct 3, 2019

Chris1964 said:
Fron has nothing in common with Bethesda when it comes to Switch support.

Just pointing out that both companies have utilize port studios to get their games on Switch. Other than that appropriate fact, you are right.

zakatana said:
I would bet that there won't be any other From game coming to Switch than Dark Souls 2; at best.

It's unfortunate but I think it's time to give up.

I'm certainly not expecting even dark souls 2, but I wouldn't say that door is closed. With all these services and consoles becoming more similar, there is no real reason to expect things to stay where they have been for the last 20 years.

Developers will be more hardware agnostic going forward, especially when streaming gets more widely used over the next 3 to 5 years.

IronTed · Oct 3, 2019

Zedark said:
We'll have to see. Digital estimates when comparing with SMM2 have put it at really large digital shares, possibly at or above 50% - but this is with some assumptions on SMM2 digital. We will have to wait and see until the financial report to get a good handle on that.

As to why it could decrease, it's a good question. In general, the Western boost that games have gotten on Switch compared to 3DS isn't applicable in Japan to nearly the same degree, and FE sales have been quite different in Japan compared to the rest of the world in general. I don't have a good reason why this one would have decreased - assuming it actually did decrease and it wasn't digital taking up the sales (as I laid out above).

Japan is different because unlike the West, the 3DS was very strong in Japan. Growing from a 3DS entry is not a guarantee by any means.

Fisico · Oct 3, 2019

z0m3le said:
Just pointing out that both companies have utilize port studios to get their games on Switch.

Isn't the Dark Souls IP owned by Namco?

Roy83 · Oct 3, 2019

Zedark said:
Building on this, here's the increase in sales level compared to the week before Lite launch:
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate: +29%
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: +39%
Minecraft: +45%
TLOZ BOTW: +55%
Super Mario Party: +35%
Pokémon Let's Go: +78%
Splatoon 2: +42%
NSMBUDX: +53%
Super Mario Maker 2: +2%
Fishing Spirits: +0%
Fire Emblem Three Houses: +7%

Edit: And here it is compared to the week of new OG Switch launch:
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate: +19%
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: +21%
Minecraft: +25%
TLOZ BOTW: +39%
Super Mario Party: +16%
Pokémon Let's Go: -5%
Splatoon 2: +25%
NSMBUDX: +34%
Super Mario Maker 2: -35% (for obvious reasons: it's still falling towards a baseline)
Fishing Spirits: -8% (idem)
Fire Emblem Three Houses: -37% (idem)

I expected Pokémon Let's Go, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe or Minecraft to be on top, but this is a great result for TLOZ BOTW.

Deleted member 49438 · Oct 3, 2019

LittleAlchemist said:
Sorry if I missed this, but do we know why sales of this entry declined over past ones? Or any good guesses as to why? Even if we assumed high digital sales it seems like a big drop from Fates and a small one from Awakening.

Probably a combination of the high retail price relative to 3DS entries & the voucher deal. My understanding is that buying a voucher for two games digital only cost like 1-2k more yen than buying FE Three Houses at retail on it's own. We saw it stay atop the eshop charts for most of July/August, so we can expect it to have a relatively high digital share compared to past entries/other current Nintendo titles.

z0m3le · Oct 3, 2019

Fisico said:
Isn't the Dark Souls IP owned by Namco?

Do they own any of their IPs? When talking about their games coming to Switch, when has that ever been up to them?

fiendcode · Oct 3, 2019

zakatana said:
I would bet that there won't be any other From game coming to Switch than Dark Souls 2; at best.
It's unfortunate but I think it's time to give up.

I still want 3D Dot Game Heroes.

Sieglinde · Oct 3, 2019

IronTed said:
Japan is different because unlike the West, the 3DS was very strong in Japan. Growing from a 3DS entry is not a guarantee by any means.

Specially when the 3DS entries are the best and third best selling of the franchise, with digital 3H should get close to Awakening levels and hopefully keep having good legs too, but compared to Fates it still going to see a big drop.

Deleted member 51691 · Oct 3, 2019

fiendcode said:
I still want 3D Dot Game Heroes.

I want 3D Dot Game Heroes on anything other than PS3. Remaster it for everything!

LittleAlchemist · Oct 3, 2019

zakatana said:
I would bet that there won't be any other From game coming to Switch than Dark Souls 2; at best.
It's unfortunate but I think it's time to give up.

I remember when the Switch became a big success, people were wanting a Bloodborne esq situation where Nintendo contracted From Software for an exclusive game. Stuff like Zelda Souls was joked about. Looking like that will most likely not happen, but could have been neat.

Nevermeltice · Oct 3, 2019

Zedark said:
10th week performance (compared to first week:
Three Houses: 1.75x FW
Fates: 1.49x FW
Awakening: 1.72x FW (MC data)

So far, Three Houses has the best legs (though with a tiny margin). Its legs are decent, it's just that its starting sales were well below the others. And of course, the question remains for now how big digital is.

Not only that, but its weekly sales level (in absolute terms, not just in relative terms compared to first week) is above both Fates and Awakening. So, its legs seem quite good.

Week 10 for each game:
25./19. [NSW] Fire Emblem: Three Houses # <SLG> (Nintendo) {2019.07.26} (¥6.980) - 4.811 / 250.272 <80-100%> (-15%)
18./13. [3DS] Fire Emblem: Awakening <SLG> (Nintendo) {2012.04.19} (¥4.800) - 3.972 / 417.760 (-31%)
19./12. [3DS] Fire Emblem Fates: Birthright / Conquest # <SLG> (Nintendo) {2015.06.25} (¥5.076) - 3.047 / 525.432 <80-100%> (-18%)

Thank you for the data, that might allay some of my anxiety. It's just I wish Three Houses would showcase some week-on-week gains just like other games especially now that the Switch Lite is out. I know RPG games tend to have a completely different sales performance curve, but still... in an ideal world the success in the West should've been replicated in Japan but I do understand the difference in audiences.

Deleted member 8196 · Oct 3, 2019

z0m3le said:
Do they own any of their IPs? When talking about their games coming to Switch, when has that ever been up to them?

Dark Souls IP is owned by From Software, but Namco Bandai has publishing rights
Sekiro is owned by From Software.

In both cases, From can't port their own games without Namco Bandai or Activision approval.

Fisico · Oct 3, 2019

z0m3le said:
Do they own any of their IPs? When talking about their games coming to Switch, when has that ever been up to them?

My point is Dark Souls port would be more about Bamco using an external studio to do the port rather than From doing it.
It's probably a mix of both (Bamco and From) but it's a lot of "From Software doesn't care enough to do it themselves".

Chris1964 · Oct 3, 2019

Sieglinde said:
Specially when the 3DS entries are the best and third best selling of the franchise, with digital 3H should get close to Awakening levels and hopefully keep having good legs too, but compared to Fates it still going to see a big drop.

Super Famicom still has the best selling entry of Fire Emblem.

EAD Ninja · Oct 3, 2019

Switch First-Party Famitsu Retail LTD
01. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} 3.279.652
02. [NSW] Splatoon 2 <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} 3.164.890
03. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} 2.471.622
04. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} 2.003.999
05. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2018.11.16} 1.639.859
06. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} 1.412.796
07. [NSW] Super Mario Party # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} 1.119.900
08. [NSW] Kirby Star Allies <ACT> (Nintendo) {2018.03.16} 752.260
09. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe <New Super Mario Bros. U \ New Super Luigi U> <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.01.11} 690.592
10. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.06.28} 644.445

SMM2 should definitely overtake Kirby and NSMBU by December. Not sure if it can still hit that million mark before the end of the fiscal year.

Chris1964 · Oct 3, 2019

EAD Ninja said:
SMM2 should definitely overtake Kirby and NSMBU by December. Not sure if it can still hit that million mark before the end of the fiscal year.

Super Mario Maker 2 will see 50-100k weeks in December.

Pokémon · Oct 3, 2019

EAD Ninja said:
Switch First-Party Famitsu Retail LTD
01. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} 3.279.652
02. [NSW] Splatoon 2 <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} 3.164.890
03. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} 2.471.622
04. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} 2.003.999
05. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2018.11.16} 1.639.859
06. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} 1.412.796
07. [NSW] Super Mario Party # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} 1.119.900
08. [NSW] Kirby Star Allies <ACT> (Nintendo) {2018.03.16} 752.260
09. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe <New Super Mario Bros. U \ New Super Luigi U> <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.01.11} 690.592
10. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.06.28} 644.445

SMM2 should definitely overtake Kirby and NSMBU by December. Not sure if it can still hit that million mark before the end of the fiscal year.

I can understand being skeptical if Mario Maker 2 will hit the million before the end of the year but before the end of fiscal year? 100% that MM2 will hit the million before the end of the fiscal year.

EAD Ninja · Oct 3, 2019

pld said:
I can understand being skeptical if Mario Maker 2 will hit the million before the end of the year but before the end of fiscal year? 100% that MM2 will hit the million before the end of the fiscal year.

Question where do you see NSMBU DX?

Deleted member 49438 · Oct 3, 2019

Chris1964 said:
Super Famicom still has the best selling entry of Fire Emblem.

Which game is that? I thought that Fates was the best seller in the franchise, although maybe I'm thinking worldwide while you're referencing Japan only?

Zedark · Oct 3, 2019

Ring Fit has hit no. 1 on the Amazon daily chart, btw. Will be a very interesting game to watch in the next three weeks.

LittleAlchemist · Oct 3, 2019

Zedark said:
Ring Fit has hit no. 1 on the Amazon daily chart, btw. Will be a very interesting game to watch in the next three weeks.

especially because that might be the game AlphaDream might have helped co-develop with Nintendo

Chris1964 · Oct 3, 2019

EAD Ninja said:
Question where do you see NSMBU DX?

Since we'll get shipments from Nintendo:

Super Mario Maker 2 - 1,2-1,3m
New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 0,9-1,0m

At the end of December.

Moirayn said:
Which game is that? I thought that Fates was the best seller in the franchise, although maybe I'm thinking worldwide while you're referencing Japan only?

Fates numbers are inflated from the moment they include the third version.

skullwaker · Oct 3, 2019

K Samedi said:
You mean lifetime? 100k would be a bomb for this kind of game from Nintendo. With them marketing it with a popular figure means they expect big things from it. It should be able to move more than a million units.

I'm saying 100k is the floor, not the ceiling.

1m is way more than I'm expecting.

Sieglinde · Oct 3, 2019

Chris1964 said:
Super Famicom still has the best selling entry of Fire Emblem.

According to GD library which i guess it's Famitsu Mystery of the Emblem sold 776k units, but in Nintendo's own reports Fates was at 780k so unless the sales for FE3 are wrong i asumme Fates is now the best selling entry in Japan.

Kerotan · Oct 3, 2019

Ron Paul said:
Been a while since PS4 held the majority of titles on the weekly top 10

theprodigy · Oct 3, 2019

Sieglinde said:
According to GD library which i guess it's Famitsu Mystery of the Emblem sold 776k units, but in Nintendo's own reports Fates was at 780k so unless the sales for FE3 are wrong i asumme Fates is now the best selling entry in Japan.

This isn't very difficult to figure out:
a) reported physical sales are around 500k
b) Nintendo's own presentations also list it around that total after including digital

Note the disclaimer in the first image, "does not include purchases of additional stories", but the shipment numbers do (and this applies worldwide too, so comparing MC/NPD/etc. sellthrough of Fates vs 3H and trying to project that to Fates shipment numbers is dangerous; the number to compare to isn't actually anywhere near 2.94m).

edit: lmao at the post above me

SinCityAssassin · Oct 3, 2019

Man he was just looking for any post.

Deleted member 37917 · Oct 3, 2019

LittleAlchemist said:
I remember when the Switch became a big success, people were wanting a Bloodborne esq situation where Nintendo contracted From Software for an exclusive game. Stuff like Zelda Souls was joked about. Looking like that will most likely not happen, but could have been neat.

It would have been great, yes. From was listed as a partner developer when the switch was revealed, but they actually never developed a single game on switch.
Nintendo seems to be in bed with Platinum and it works great, but they shouldn't discard polyamory.

Skittzo · Oct 3, 2019

zakatana said:
It would have been great, yes. From was listed as a partner developer when the switch was revealed, but they actually never developed a single game on switch.
Nintendo seems to be in bed with Platinum and it works great, but they shouldn't discard polyamory.

From what I remember From was directly involved with porting Dark Souls. They assisted Virtuos.

Sieglinde · Oct 3, 2019

theprodigy said:
This isn't very difficult to figure out:
a) reported physical sales are around 500k
b) Nintendo's own presentations also list it around that total after including digital

Note the disclaimer in the first image, "does not include purchases of additional stories", but the shipment numbers do (and this applies worldwide too, so comparing MC/NPD/etc. sellthrough of Fates vs 3H and trying to project that to Fates shipment numbers is dangerous; the number to compare to isn't actually anywhere near 2.94m).

edit: lmao at the post above me

I see it now, still seems weird that in those presentationts they don't include purchases of other stories, and yet in their reports they do, it doesn't make things clear because by all means Fire Emblem Fates is 3 FE games (2 of them suck but that's another story lol) but in their shipments numbers they are still counting them as one even though the digital versions for a second route are cheaper they are still a sale for the game, it counts and Nintendo count them too.

Deleted member 37917 · Oct 3, 2019

skittzo0413 said:
From what I remember From was directly involved with porting Dark Souls. They assisted Virtuos.

I didn't know that. It makes the port quite disappointing if that's the case, for not having a performance mode or an acceptable sound quality.
Point is, Sekiro and Elden Ring won't be on switch and it absolutely sucks, even though I already don't have time to play what I want to play on the system.

Garlic · Oct 3, 2019

zakatana said:
It would have been great, yes. From was listed as a partner developer when the switch was revealed, but they actually never developed a single game on switch.
Nintendo seems to be in bed with Platinum and it works great, but they shouldn't discard polyamory.

I mean I doubt Nintendo is the holdup here

test_account · Oct 3, 2019

Zedark said:
Over 500k worldwide. And we know from Anihawk that Switch is selling faster outside of Japan than PS4+VITA combined (but that obviously doesn't mean it's sold more just yet).

Thanks :)

Oregano · Oct 3, 2019

schuelma said:
First off, I wouldn't be at all shocked if Ninja Box outsells the SAO ports- you're comparing a brand new kid IP to a known IP that isn't going to show any legs.

Second, as others have said, the market overall is hit or miss and by your logic Namco wouldn't have bothered with Fishing Spirits, which could conceivably end up as Namco's top domestic seller of the year.

Sorry, didn't get a chance to reply earlier.

The fact that Ninja Box outselling year old ports is in contention at all says enough to be honest. It's a brand new, exclusive game with a (modest) cross media push.

I kind of addressed Fishing Spirits in my original post. It's doing well, but it's not blowing away the results that arguably safer investments could pull, so far at least.

Piston · Oct 3, 2019

Oregano said:
Sorry, didn't get a chance to reply earlier.

The fact that Ninja Box outselling year old ports is in contention at all says enough to be honest. It's a brand new, exclusive game with a (modest) cross media push.

I kind of addressed Fishing Spirits in my original post. It's doing well, but it's not blowing away the results that arguably safer investments could pull, so far at least.

Fishing Spirits will end up in the 300 to 400k range by the end of the year. I think you could consider that blowing away safer investments.

Lelouch0612 · Oct 3, 2019

Zedark said:
Ring Fit has hit no. 1 on the Amazon daily chart, btw. Will be a very interesting game to watch in the next three weeks.

That's big.

How big will depend on how long it stays at this position. If the game managed to blow out then the end of the year will be even more nuts.

Oregano · Oct 3, 2019

Piston said:
Fishing Spirits will end up in the 300 to 400k range by the end of the year. I think you could consider that blowing away safer investments.

What's Taiko at?

Fishing Spirits is showing legs and will get a big boost during holidays but it's only at 180k right now.

Even still my point is that an IP like One Piece could easily do 200k+ on Switch and whilst that's not as high as Fishing Spirits it's also extremely unlikely that it would do as bad as Ninja Box on the low end.

Bandai Namco could easily have a portfolio of more consistent sellers rather than the feast or famine approach.

Lelouch0612 · Oct 3, 2019

Oregano said:
What's Taiko at?

Fishing Spirits is showing legs and will get a big boost during holidays but it's only at 180k right now.

Even still my point is that an IP like One Piece could easily do 200k+ on Switch and whilst that's not as high as Fishing Spirits it's also extremely unlikely that it would do as bad as Ninja Box on the low end.

Bandai Namco could easily have a portfolio of more consistent sellers rather than the feast or famine approach.

We'll know pretty soon since One Piece is coming to Switch pretty soon (day and date with PS4, probably a March 2020 release).

BishopLamont · Oct 3, 2019

it's obvious fire emblem sales are hugely skewed towards digital due to vouchers, it opened lower than smm when the opposite should have happened, digital sales percentage is probably higher than smm and I wouldnt be surprised it's at 400k+ by now

switch should sell 4.5m+ by end of the year and I expect next year to be even better selling over 5m+

I think nintendo will go the switch pro route to prolong switch's life, as google stadia/cloud gaming gets people use to the streaming game age, the highest of end AAA games will be much more feasible as cloud games for switch pro

on the other extreme, with switch lite removing docking capability, nintendo can make a powerful switch sku that is a home console only without portability, with bc and compatibility with the entire switch library

watever they do, its certain they will stick to the switch brand even if it doesn't make sense in its functions, the brand power is too big to ignore at this point

Piston said:
Fishing Spirits will end up in the 300 to 400k range by the end of the year. I think you could consider that blowing away safer investments.

fishing spirits will likely sell well in japan only, while a more mature/traditional approach with their games will sell well worldwide

just look at the year late port of xenoverse 2

Oregano · Oct 3, 2019

Lelouch0612 said:
We'll know pretty soon since One Piece is coming to Switch pretty soon (day and date with PS4, probably a March 2020 release).

It's going to have dampened potential due to being a Musou game though. OPM3 did well on Switch considering its age but the game to show the IPs potential would have been World Seeker, as the follow up to the Unlimited games.

Deleted member 2791 · Oct 3, 2019

Oregano said:
It's going to have dampened potential due to being a Musou game though. OPM3 did well on Switch considering its age but the game to show the IPs potential would have been World Seeker, as the follow up to the Unlimited games.

Alas bamco are very bad at developing good games for their own licensed IPs nowadays.

Sandfox · Oct 3, 2019

Passing Assassin said:
Alas bamco are very bad at developing good games for their own licensed IPs nowadays.

Pretty much every game they've released lately has had a meh to poor reception outside of Ace Combat with One Piece and Jump Force probably being the worst.

Oregano · Oct 3, 2019

Passing Assassin said:
Alas bamco are very bad at developing good games for their own licensed IPs nowadays.

World Seeker is probably a good example of a game/developer harmed by Bandai Namco's drive to make all of their anime games big console games.

Ganbarion probably still has it considering Dragonball Fusions was only back in 2016.

Lelouch0612 · Oct 3, 2019

Oregano said:
It's going to have dampened potential due to being a Musou game though. OPM3 did well on Switch considering its age but the game to show the IPs potential would have been World Seeker, as the follow up to the Unlimited games.

Euhhh the games that showed the strength of the One Piece IP are the Warriors series. Even if it declined from 1, OPW3 sold almost 400k units. The game was selling upward of 800k at its peak.

The last entry was in 2015, and ports on PS4/Switch showed that interest is still there. It will sell significantly more than World Seeker imo.

Sagadego17 · Oct 3, 2019

Sandfox said:
Pretty much every game they've released lately has had a meh to poor reception outside of Ace Combat with One Piece and Jump Force probably being the worst.

hey the super robot wars games are awesome

Media Create Sales: Week 39, 2019 (Sep 23 - Sep 29)

SalesEra Genius

One Winged Slayer

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One Winged Slayer

SalesEra Genius

任天堂 の 忍者

SalesEra Genius

任天堂 の 忍者

User requested account closure

SalesEra Genius

One Winged Slayer

One Winged Slayer

One Winged Slayer

User requested account closure

One Winged Slayer

任天堂の忍者

任天堂の忍者