Media Create Sales: Week 4, 2019 (Jan 21 - Jan 27)

schuelma · Feb 2, 2019

DarkDetective said:
Famitsu's digital numbers are the result of surveys. The technique is fine. However, past results have shown that the samples of the surveys are not representative of the market. Therefore, the entire survey cannot be taken seriously anymore.

It's that simple.

Here is my opinion- I've always taken them with a grain of salt but used them when analyzing sales because its better than nothing, and I assumed that the surveys were buttressed with an analysis of the public digital charts, allowing for some changes and modification to fit the public data we have. Its becoming clear famitsu does no such thing, which lessens their value IMO.

Kerotan · Feb 2, 2019

hiska-kun said:
I won't be able to post the weekly graphs next week.
I'll take a rest (vacations).

Enjoy. Well deserved after all your hard work!

AcademicSaucer · Feb 2, 2019

hiska-kun said:
First Day Sell-through {2019.01.31}

[PS4] [NSW] [PSV] Nelke & the Legendary Alchemists: Ateliers of the New World # <RPG> (Koei Tecmo) (¥7.800) - 40%

[NSW] Dragon Marked For Death # <RPG> (Inti Creates) (¥5.537) - 50%

[PS4] Conception Plus: Please Have My Children! <RPG> (Spike Chunsoft) (¥5.980) - 20%

[NSW] Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star Link <ACT> (Marvelous) (¥7.980) - 20%

is that good or bad for dragon marked for death?

ZSaberLink · Feb 2, 2019

Dengeki Online Sales: Week 4, 2019 (Jan 21 - Jan 27)

01./00. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts III (Square Enix) {2019.01.25} - 545,031 / NEW
02./00. [PS4] Resident Evil 2 (Capcom) {2019.01.25} - 244,522 / NEW
03./02. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (Nintendo) {2019.01.11} - 60,772 / 333,212
04./03. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} - 38,600 / 2,828,243
05./01. [PS4] Ace Combat 7: Skies Unknown (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.01.17} - 28,500 / 221,169
06./05. [NSW] Super Mario Party (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} - 10,950 / 921,195
07./06. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} - 10,050 / 644,374
08./07. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} - 8,750 / 2,023,638
09./09. [NSW] Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} - 7,594 / 2,902,920
10./08. [NSW] Dragon Quest Builders 2 (Square Enix) {2018.12.20} - 6,644 / 210,860
11./20. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 ReMIX (Square Enix) {2017.03.09} - 6,286 / 245,346
12./10. [PS4] Tales of Vesperia: Definitive Edition (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.01.11} - 5,550 / 60,322
13./04. [PS4] Yakuza 4 (Sega) {2019.01.17} - 5,506 / 24,759
14./13. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! (Pokemon Co.) {2018.11.16} - 4,556 / 759,431
15./12. [PS4] PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds (PUBG Corporation) {2019.01.17} - 3,831 / 11,346
16./16. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Eevee! (Pokemon Co.) {2018.11.16} - 3,772 / 606,670
17./15. [PS4] Dragon Quest Builders 2 (Square Enix) {2018.12.20} - 3,571 / 190,618
18./17. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} - 3,212 / 941,366
19./28. [NSW] Fit Boxing (Imagineer) {2018.12.20} - 3,167 / 16,991
20./14. [NSW] Go Vacation (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.12.27} - 2,922 / 57,452
21./22. [PS4] Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2018.10.12} - 2,544 / 516,813
22./19. [PS4] Judgment (Sega) {2018.12.13} - 2,500 / 248,492
23./21. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.07.19} - 2,422 / 311,585
24./00. [PS4] Higurashi no Naku Koro ni Hou (Entergram) {2019.01.24} - 2,394 / NEW
25./31. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD II.8 Final Chapter Prologue (Square Enix) {2017.01.12} - 2,385 / 214,447
26./11. [PS4] Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet - Complete Edition (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.01.17} - 2,169 / 10,356
27./24. [NSW] Kirby Star Allies (Nintendo) {2018.03.16} - 1,961 / 721,798
28./25. [NSW] Mario Tennis Aces (Nintendo) {2018.06.22} - 1,611 / 411,326
29./23. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} - 1,541 / 1,803,729
30./27. [PS4] Battlefield V (Electronic Arts) {2018.11.20} - 1,313 / 165,107
31./54. [NSW] Super Run For Money Tousouchuu & Super Battle For Money Sentouchuu Double Pack (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.11.29} - 1,197 / 29,769
32./00. [PSV] Suki to Suki to de Sankaku Ren'ai (Entergram) {2019.01.24} - 1,187 / NEW
33./26. [PS4] God Eater 3 (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.12.13} - 1,183 / 202,961
34./33. [NSW] FIFA 19 (Electronic Arts) {2018.09.28} - 1,183 / 68,533
35./32. [NSW] Diablo III: Eternal Collection (Blizzard Entertainment) {2018.12.27} - 1,156 / 17,751
36./39. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2018.12.06} - 1,106 / 11,810
37./35. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo (Nintendo) {2016.11.23} - 1,039 / 408,355
38./36. [PS4] Minecraft: Playstation 4 Edition (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2015.12.03} - 1,011 / 358,664
39./37. [PS4] Dead by Daylight (3goo) {2018.11.29} - 1,008 / 23,509
40./49. [PS4] Monster Hunter: World [Best Price] (Capcom) {2018.08.02} - 994 / 24,897
41./34. [NSW] Dragon Ball FighterZ (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.09.27} - 967 / 80,474
42./00. [PS4] Sengoku Hime 7: Sen'un Tsuranuku Guren no Ishi (SystemSoft Alpha) {2019.01.24} - 887 / NEW
43./50. [NSW] Super Bomberman R [Smile Price Collection] (Konami) {2018.11.29} - 883 / 11,685
44./41. [3DS] Pokemon Ultra Sun (Pokemon Co.) {2017.11.17} - 844 / 895,347
45./18. [NSW] Tales of Vesperia: Definitive Edition (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.01.11} - 828 / 33,370
46./46. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege - Advanced Edition (Ubisoft) {2018.03.01} - 800 / 88,526
47./40. [NSW] Fortnite (Warner Entertainment Japan) {2018.12.13} - 794 / 17,968
48./52. [PS4] Winning Eleven 2019 (Konami) {2018.08.30} - 794 / 160,989
49./44. [NSW] Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker (Nintendo) {2018.07.13} - 756 / 178,243
50./42. [NSW] Katamari Damacy Reroll (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.12.20} - 744 / 24,290

SOFTWARE

Code:

--------------------------------------------------------
| Model | This Week | Week(%)  | FY 2018     | FY(%)   |
--------------------------------------------------------
| PS4   | 892,408   | 79.9%    | 7,794,092   | 33.7%   |
| Switch| 200,018   | 17.9%    | 12,595,442  | 54.4%   |
| 3DS   | 17,319    | 1.5%     | 1,969,200   | 8.5%    |
| Vita  | 6,572     | 0.6%     | 719,094     | 3.1%    |
| ETC   | 1,213     | 0.1%     | 79,605      | 0.3%    |
--------------------------------------------------------
| Total | 1,117,530 | 100.0%   | 23,157,433  | 100.0%  |
--------------------------------------------------------

HARDWARE

Code:

--------------------------------------------------------
| Model | This Week | Week(%)  | FY 2018     | FY(%)   |
--------------------------------------------------------
| Switch| 51,634    | 50.8%    | 3,393,111   | 66.0%   |
| PS4   | 43,948    | 43.3%    | 1,247,284   | 24.2%   |
| 3DS   | 4,056     | 4.0%     | 389,806     | 7.6%    |
| Vita  | 1,803     | 1.8%     | 105,297     | 2.0%    |
| ETC   | 134       | 0.1%     | 8,417       | 0.2%    |
--------------------------------------------------------
| Total | 101,575   | 100.0%   | 5,143,915   | 100.0%  |
--------------------------------------------------------

Dengeki Online Sales: Week 3, 2019 (Jan 14 - Jan 20)

test_account · Feb 2, 2019

sfortunato said:
POS data are 100% accurate (with a close to zero statistical error) as they come from inventory systems. Consumer surveys are based, instead, on self-reported information---not on "hard sales data". Also, it's much more difficult to extract a representative sample of consumers buying games on digital platforms than of retail stores. The fact that the methodology has only been recently adopted and therefore it has yet to be fine-tuned must be accounted for.

Yeah, thats true, but this was more about what the numbers are built/based on =) Maybe i misunderstood what 'Mark H' ment when he said "hard sales data", but i read it as he ment that the estimates from Famitsu were only based on guesses with no basis in actual sales. If the surveys are based on people reporting their purchasing habits, at least its has some basis in actual sales, or hard sales data in that regards (assuming that people report correctly, but i dont see why they wouldnt). And not just information being taken out of nowhere, like skittzo0413 were asking (assuming he was referring to the Famitsu download estimates).

But yeah, like we both mention, the current method doesnt seem to be very accurate, so hopefully they will come up with a better one :) The best thing would be for the publishers to just report the numbers though, like NPD gets their numbers if i'm not mistaken.

EDIT: Added a bit more text.

Mory Dunz · Feb 2, 2019

Gotdatmoney said:
Are you guys gonna drag out this digital estimate shit for the rest of thread?

it's because nintendo didn't have a direct or something

Chris1964 · Feb 2, 2019

With digital beconing a factor for Switch, there is problem with getting the complete picture of sales. They won't do any magic trick and turn a game that underperformed into success but when we talk for multi-million sellers even a 10-15% digital share is several 100k. This became obvious at Q3, comparing sell-through numbers and shipments. With previous Nintendo systems there wasn't a similar situation but now we must take a look every quarter at financial reports.

Lite_Agent · Feb 2, 2019

AcademicSaucer said:
is that good or bad for dragon marked for death?

Pretty good. Not "omg 100k FW confirmed!" good, but fairly solid for an independent release like this. Not sure what to expect, but at the very least, far from a complete bomba.

test_account · Feb 2, 2019

Gotdatmoney said:
In Japan? Probably poorly.

Being download only, i guess we wont know for sure. Or the eShop top 20 might give some indication at least.

ggx2ac · Feb 2, 2019

Avada Kedavra said:
I made two sentences in my post both of which went together. Don't reply to me on half of it.

If the information wasn't good, then the interpretation was going to be flawed anyway.

Since this is regarding Famitsu and polling, there is a famous example of polling that you would learn in Statistics at university.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections

The Literary Digest famously predicted that Alf Landon would win based on mail-in cards sent in from their readers. It had successfully predicted the winners of the elections in 1920, 1924, 1928 and 1932. Many people believed their forecasts.

George Gallup predicted very different results based on statistical random sampling. The accuracy of Gallup's forecasts was a very visible demonstration of the value of modern statistical methods. The people who mailed in cards to the Literary Digest were more affluent with an overwhelmingly negative evaluation of Roosevelt. They were not representative of the voting public and it showed in the results.

Incumbent President Roosevelt won because his New Deal programs were very popular among the American people, apart from the respondents to the Literary Digest poll. Republican nominee Alf Landon claimed that the New Deal was too costly and ineffective as well as that Roosevelt was slowly making the United States a dictatorship. However, these attacks did not gain much traction.[3]

_Dog · Feb 2, 2019

^ As Twain once said, "There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies and statistics."

Avada Kedavra · Feb 2, 2019

ggx2ac said:
If the information wasn't good, then the interpretation was going to be flawed anyway.

Since this is regarding Famitsu and polling, there is a famous example of polling that you would learn in Statistics at university.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections

There are two interpretations here. There's one by us when Famitsu releases their estimates and there's one by Famitsu when they interpret the data coming from their polls and make an extrapolation that leads to estimates. But the information gathered from the polls remains good. It simply needs to be interpreted accordingly.

fiendcode · Feb 2, 2019

Avada Kedavra said:
There are two interpretations here. There's one by us when Famitsu releases their estimates and there's one by Famitsu when they interpret the data coming from their polls and make an extrapolation that leads to estimates. But the information gathered from the polls remains good. It simply needs to be interpreted accordingly.

Self reporting can be flawed though and the results (vs actual charts) sort of shows that. Looking through the link you provided earlier it's unclear how Famitsu arrives at the 10k used out of 250k responses as well, I don't think we really have enough information to say the collected data or selection is sound.

SinCityAssassin · Feb 2, 2019

Avada Kedavra said:
It simply needs to be interpreted accordingly.

The information itself is a bad interpretation. Just because you interpret that information as good doesn't make it good information.

ILikeFeet · Feb 2, 2019

Avada Kedavra said:
It simply needs to be interpreted accordingly.

the only interpretation you can possibly make is that Famitsu is significantly overrepresenting a population.

ggx2ac · Feb 2, 2019

Avada Kedavra said:
There are two interpretations here. There's one by us when Famitsu releases their estimates and there's one by Famitsu when they interpret the data coming from their polls and make an extrapolation that leads to estimates. But the information gathered from the polls remains good. It simply needs to be interpreted accordingly.

Yeah... No... You're not convincing anyone.

Polls are for making predictions, and the only interpretation to make is whether it's right or wrong from the actual results.

Their polling data isn't lining up with the actual results because the samples aren't representative of the population.

So just like the Literary Digest which incorrectly predicted that Alf Landon would become US President, Famitsu is incorrectly predicting low Switch digital sales and incorrectly predicting sales for games that haven't even released digitally:

Chris1964 said:
Sumikko Gurashi: Koko ga Ochitsukundesu
Physical release was at {2014.11.20} with digital coming out 2 weeks later at {2014.12.04}
When Famitsu posted combined top 30 for Nov 2014 {2014.10.27 - 2014.11.23} digital sales should be zero, right? Nope they were 439.

SinCityAssassin · Feb 2, 2019

50./42. [NSW] Katamari Damacy Reroll (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.12.20} - 744 / 24,290

Come on little guy, break 25K.

Gotdatmoney · Feb 2, 2019

test_account said:
Being download only, i guess we wont know for sure. Or the eShop top 20 might give some indication at least.

Honestly, I wanna standard shooter on Switch so if it runs at 60fps and is not broken I'll prob pick it up.

ILikeFeet · Feb 2, 2019

Gotdatmoney said:
Honestly, I wanna standard shooter on Switch so if it runs at 60fps and is not broken I'll prob pick it up.

Shadowgun Legends might be that

Fisico · Feb 2, 2019

AcademicSaucer said:
is that good or bad for dragon marked for death?

That's a good sellthrough number and its ranking in that list of games showed that it didn't do ridiculously low numbers
It's a bit hard to say more, the 3 Atelier SKU combined probably sold <30k first day (looking at previous entries FW sales), Fate Extella Link should be in the 5-10k range and Conception is harder to predict.

Anything between 10 to 30k (probably closer to the former) sounds like a reasonable estimate and that's an okay number for an indepent release by Inti, that would be better than their last two releases which were GalGun 2 (7k FW NSW+PS4) and Gunvolt (8k FW on 3DS IN 2016 then 3k FW on NSW in 2017) but that one was released digitaly before.
Digital will be important for this game too, especially as it's sold at a much lower price if you don't want every playable character.

JJConrad · Feb 2, 2019

Avada Kedavra said:
I made two sentences in my post both of which went together. Don't reply to me on half of it.

Avada Kedavra said:
Any information is good information. It's the interpretation of that information that can be flawed.

I'm willing to give you the full benefit of the doubt in your first sentence and even agree with it. It's your second sentence that causes problems for me in this instance.

I'll assume that when you said "any information" you meant "any credible information." There's no need for me to further bludgeon that sentence. I agree that "Good information times good interpretation equals good estimates."

The problem is that, when comes to Famitsu's digital charts, we have NO information. Famitsu doesn't release the direct results of their survey. They only publish their estimates after their interpretation of that survey. And it's been demonstrated time and time again (and their many more examples than just what's already been posted in this thread) that Famitsu's estimates are wildly inaccurate.

Treating Famitsu's digital estimates as if they are real information would requires a second round of interpretation that none of have the knowledge to decipher. The best that can be said about them is that their digital estimates are a possible reflection of their survey... but that's not really useful to us and these threads aren't about surveys.

hiska-kun · Feb 2, 2019

When I bought the Famitsu magazine in the past, I remember the PSN digital sales were calculated multiplying for 5 some numbers they provided in the magazine (I don't know if those were the results of the poll or what was that).
I still keep some numbers at home so I could check.
Too bad it would have to be in two weeks.

zroid · Feb 2, 2019

That precipitous drop on ToV Switch yikes

seems like it was woefully supplied

Chris1964 · Feb 3, 2019

hiska-kun said:
When I bought the Famitsu magazine in the past, I remember the PSN digital sales were calculated multiplying for 5 some numbers they provided in the magazine (I don't know if those were the results of the poll or what was that).
I still keep some numbers at home so I could check.
Too bad it would have to be in two weeks.

You are right, 5x multiplier for everything.

CaviarMeths · Feb 3, 2019

SinCItyAssassin said:
50./42. [NSW] Katamari Damacy Reroll (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.12.20} - 744 / 24,290

Come on little guy, break 25K.

To be fair, it's probably already at 24,292 with Famitsu digital estimates.

SinCityAssassin · Feb 3, 2019

CaviarMeths said:
To be fair, it's probably already at 24,292 with Famitsu digital estimates.

CeroMiedo · Feb 3, 2019

CaviarMeths said:
To be fair, it's probably already at 24,292 with Famitsu digital estimates.

You have to x5 for everything so it have to be 24,300

Terrell · Feb 3, 2019

Seriously, we as a group refuse to extrapolate information too much from pre-order numbers, but we'll take an interpreted Famitsu survey as a given? Might as well use the Top 10 listings from their magazine to figure out what the year's best-sellers will be, because that's based on opt-in reader surveys and... has been hit-or-miss (with a lot of miss) for the better part of a decade or more.

Avada Kedavra said:
There are two interpretations here. There's one by us when Famitsu releases their estimates and there's one by Famitsu when they interpret the data coming from their polls and make an extrapolation that leads to estimates. But the information gathered from the polls remains good. It simply needs to be interpreted accordingly.

The data points from the survey are never provided, only Famitsu's interpretation of them. So we can't even say that the information gathered is good when that info is data points we never get to see. This is blind faith at its worst.

sfortunato · Feb 3, 2019

Avada Kedavra has yet to explain Famitsu methodology in detail from the link he/she posted as I can't speak Japanese.

casiopao · Feb 3, 2019

sfortunato said:
Avada Kedavra has yet to explain Famitsu methodology in detail from the link he/she posted as I can't speak Japanese.

Maybe he himself also cant read japanese?

Chris1964 said:
You are right, 5x multiplier for everything.

I think using the normal 10 to 15% average for all game will probably rack higher correct percentage overall lol than this fantasy level of predictions by famitsu.

Chris1964 · Feb 3, 2019

I tried to do a comparison between Nintendo shipments and Media Create sell-through for a rough estimate of digital range and they align with top 30 for 2018 provided by Nintendo. I'll post it later.

Super Mario Odyssey is a little over tracked at retail but everything else matches.

Like previous entries, Pokemon is again overstocked from Nintendo by 200-250k, Q4 shipment will be low.

Yep · Feb 3, 2019

Sorry if old

About possibility of God Eater 3 Switch

Is it the classic "you begged enough, we heard you"?
(Didn't remember if they asked for begging on this one too)

wrowa · Feb 3, 2019

Yep said:
Sorry if old

About possibility of God Eater 3 Switch

Is it the classic "you begged enough, we heard you"?
(Didn't remember if they asked for begging on this one too)

I think it's more like "Oh, our sales tanked after leaving handheld behind".

Lelouch0612 · Feb 3, 2019

Without any Monster Hunter game in sight, God Eater could do well on Switch. Such a shame that being a port will significantly limit its potential.

CeroMiedo · Feb 3, 2019

Lelouch0612 said:
Without any Monster Hunter game in sight, God Eater could do well on Switch. Such a shame that being a port will significantly limit its potential.

Even if it was on every platform out there, it would have performed the same as it was imo

Lelouch0612 · Feb 3, 2019

CeroMiedo said:
Even if it was on every platform out there, it would have performed the same as it was imo

You think adding another platform (the only portable one) wouldn't have changed the sales significantly ?

CeroMiedo · Feb 3, 2019

Lelouch0612 said:
You think adding another platform (the only portable one) wouldn't have changed the sales significantly ?

Adding another portable platform didn't help those nis titles either, why of all the sudden adding a platform will help it selling well, especially the one that not many people care about like GE

Chris1964 · Feb 3, 2019

2018 eShop sales for games with physical release

01. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 3.170.000 / 2.614.960 [555.000 / 18%]
02. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 1.010.000 / 840.300 [170.000 / 17%]
03. [NSW] Overcooked! 2 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Team 17) {2018.08.07} (¥2.546)
04. [NSW] Splatoon 2 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} (¥5.980) - 1.120.000 / 1.000.110 [120.000 / 11%]
05. [NSW] Super Mario Party (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ETC> (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} (¥5.980) - 1.050.000 / 936.140 [114.000 / 11%]
06. [NSW] Octopath Traveler (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Square Enix) {2018.07.13} (¥6.800)
07. [NSW] Kirby Star Allies (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Nintendo) {2018.03.16} (¥5.980) - 830.000 / 717.643 [112.000 / 13%]
08. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2018.11.16} (¥5.980)
09. [NSW] Minecraft (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} (¥3.600)
10. [NSW] Mario Tennis Aces (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <SPT> (Nintendo) {2018.06.22} (¥5.980) - 520.000 / 411.002 [109.000 / 21%]
11. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 560.000 / 443.885 [116.000 / 21%]
12. [NSW] Undertale (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (8-4) {2018.09.15} (¥1.500)
13. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Eevee! (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2018.11.16} (¥5.980)
14. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.07.19} (¥6.100)
15. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} (¥5.980) - 440.000 / 423.527 [16.000]
16. [NSW] FIFA 18 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2017.09.29} (¥5.800)
17. [NSW] 1-2-Switch (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ETC> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥4.980)
18. [NSW] Bayonetta (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Nintendo) {2018.02.17} (¥3.480)
19. [NSW] Mega Man Legacy Collection 2 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Capcom) {2018.05.24} (¥2.769)
20. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Nintendo) {2017.12.01} (¥7.980)
21. [NSW] Dragon Quest Builders 2 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Square Enix) {2018.12.20} (¥7.800)
22. [NSW] Dragon Quest Builders (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Square Enix) {2018.03.01} (¥4.800)
23. [NSW] Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Nintendo) {2018.05.03} (¥5.980) - 280.000 / 222.025* [58.000 / 21%]
24. [NSW] Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Capcom) {2017.08.25} (¥5.546)
25. [NSW] Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Nintendo) {2018.07.13} (¥3.980) - 230.000 / 177.872 [52.000 / 23%]
26. [NSW] Super Bomberman R (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Konami) {2017.03.03} (¥4.980)
27. [NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <SLG> (Nintendo) {2018.01.18} (¥5.980)
28. [NSW] Capcom Beat 'Em Up Bundle (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Capcom) {2018.09.20} (¥3.056)
29. [NSW] Deemo (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Flyhigh Works) {2017.09.21} (¥2.777)
30. [NSW] Arms (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <FTG> (Nintendo) {2017.06.16} (¥5.980)

00. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2018.11.16} (¥5.980) - 1.850.000 / 1.399.595 [450.000]
___

* Sell-in from Nintendo / sell-through from Media Create / sell-in - sell-through [(sell-in - sell-through)/sell-in]

* Sell-through goes from week 1 to week 1 and not week 52 to week 52 since a big part of shipment includes week 1

* Sell-in - sell-through isn't only digital, there could be some additional unsold physical stock in there, but it's a very good estimate for digital if something isn't overshipped

* Donkey Kong number is from Famitsu until week 52, Media Create isn't available

* Media Create overtracked Super Mario Odyssey by 50-100k

* Pokemon has 200-250k unsold stock, digital for it is around 200-250k looking at other games. That's a familiar situation for Pokemon though, same thing has happened previous years

* Octopath Traveler has big digital sales comparing to physical

* Better don't compare this list with the one that incluses Famitsu digital estimates
https://www.resetera.com/threads/me...019-jan-07-jan-13.93822/page-13#post-17016521

Lelouch0612 · Feb 3, 2019

CeroMiedo said:
Adding another portable platform didn't help those nis titles either, why of all the sudden adding a platform will help it selling well, especially the one that not many people care about like GE

That's not the same thing :

1) God Eater was on franchise that was born on the PSP, a portable system. God Eater 1 & 2 released exclusively at launch on portable systems (PSP/PSV). The fanbase essentially comes from the portable eco-system.
2) It is a mainstream hit, bigger than any NIS games you mentionned. Those have a small dedicated fanbase that buys their releases. To sell to the mainstream, adding a portable system (which features local co-op) is a significant addition.

There are multiple examples that dropping/adding a portable SKU changed the outcome significantly for bigger games (TCS, Dragon Ball, FIFA...), it is odd that all you took was smaller NIS titles.

Chris1964 said:
2018 eShop sales for games with physical release

01. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 3.170.000 / 2.614.960 [555.000 / 18%]
02. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 1.010.000 / 840.300 [170.000 / 17%]
03. [NSW] Overcooked! 2 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Team 17) {2018.08.07} (¥2.546)
04. [NSW] Splatoon 2 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} (¥5.980) - 1.120.000 / 1.000.110 [120.000 / 11%]
05. [NSW] Super Mario Party (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ETC> (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} (¥5.980) - 1.050.000 / 936.140 [114.000 / 11%]
06. [NSW] Octopath Traveler (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Square Enix) {2018.07.13} (¥6.800)
07. [NSW] Kirby Star Allies (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Nintendo) {2018.03.16} (¥5.980) - 830.000 / 717.643 [112.000 / 13%]
08. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2018.11.16} (¥5.980)
09. [NSW] Minecraft (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} (¥3.600)
10. [NSW] Mario Tennis Aces (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <SPT> (Nintendo) {2018.06.22} (¥5.980) - 520.000 / 411.002 [109.000 / 21%]
11. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 560.000 / 443.885 [116.000 / 21%]
12. [NSW] Undertale (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (8-4) {2018.09.15} (¥1.500)
13. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Eevee! (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2018.11.16} (¥5.980)
14. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.07.19} (¥6.100)
15. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} (¥5.980) - 440.000 / 423.527 [16.000]
16. [NSW] FIFA 18 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2017.09.29} (¥5.800)
17. [NSW] 1-2-Switch (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ETC> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥4.980)
18. [NSW] Bayonetta (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Nintendo) {2018.02.17} (¥3.480)
19. [NSW] Mega Man Legacy Collection 2 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Capcom) {2018.05.24} (¥2.769)
20. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Nintendo) {2017.12.01} (¥7.980)
21. [NSW] Dragon Quest Builders 2 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Square Enix) {2018.12.20} (¥7.800)
22. [NSW] Dragon Quest Builders (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Square Enix) {2018.03.01} (¥4.800)
23. [NSW] Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Nintendo) {2018.05.03} (¥5.980) - 280.000 / 222.025* [58.000 / 21%]
24. [NSW] Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Capcom) {2017.08.25} (¥5.546)
25. [NSW] Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Nintendo) {2018.07.13} (¥3.980) - 230.000 / 177.872 [52.000 / 23%]
26. [NSW] Super Bomberman R (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Konami) {2017.03.03} (¥4.980)
27. [NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <SLG> (Nintendo) {2018.01.18} (¥5.980)
28. [NSW] Capcom Beat 'Em Up Bundle (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Capcom) {2018.09.20} (¥3.056)
29. [NSW] Deemo (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Flyhigh Works) {2017.09.21} (¥2.777)
30. [NSW] Arms (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <FTG> (Nintendo) {2017.06.16} (¥5.980)

00. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2018.11.16} (¥5.980) - 1.850.000 / 1.399.595 [450.000]
___

* Sell-in from Nintendo / sell-through from Media Create / sell-in - sell-through [(sell-in - sell-through)/sell-in]

* Sell-through goes from week 1 to week 1 and not week 52 to week 52 since a big part of shipment includes week 1

* Sell-in - sell-through isn't only digital, there could be some additional unsold physical stock in there, but it's a very good estimate for digital if something isn't overshipped

* Donkey Kong number is from Famitsu until week 52, Media Create isn't available

* Media Create overtracked Super Mario Odyssey by 50-100k

* Pokemon has 200-250k unsold stock, digital for it is around 200-250k looking at other games. That's a familiar situation for Pokemon though, same thing has happened previous years

* Octopath Traveler has big digital sales comparing to physical

* Better don't compare this list with the one that incluses Famitsu digital estimates
https://www.resetera.com/threads/me...019-jan-07-jan-13.93822/page-13#post-17016521

Looking at the digital ratio of Smash, Pokemon and Mario Tennis Aces, it looks like the "Double Gold Coins" offer really paid off.

Not surprising that they are doing it with almost all of their big games now (NSBUDX had it too).

CeroMiedo · Feb 3, 2019

Lelouch0612 said:
That's not the same thing :

1) God Eater was on franchise that was born on the PSP, a portable system. God Eater 1 & 2 released exclusively at launch on portable systems (PSP/PSV). The fanbase essentially comes from the portable eco-system.
2) It is a mainstream hit, bigger than any NIS games you mentionned. Those have a small dedicated fanbase that buys their releases. To sell to the mainstream, adding a portable system (which features local co-op) is a significant addition.

There are multiple examples that dropping/adding a portable SKU changed the outcome significantly for bigger games (TCS, Dragon Ball, FIFA...), it is odd that all you took was smaller NIS titles.

I added that as an example because those games fit the bill, formerly vita/ps4 games, then ps4 only, then adding the switch. Was those games still performing well after adding a platform? Or it was because not many people care about them anymore? Same with God Eater. It was a famous series once, sure, but right now, it's just an outdated hunting clone

MANUELF · Feb 3, 2019

Will Ultimate digital alone outsell Smash WiiU LTD sales?

Lelouch0612 · Feb 3, 2019

CeroMiedo said:
I added that as an example because those games fit the bill, formerly vita/ps4 games, then ps4 only, then adding the switch. Was those games still performing well after adding a platform? Or it was because not many people care about them anymore? Same with God Eater. It was a famous series once, sure, but right now, it's just an outdated hunting clone

God Eater Resurrection (released at the end of 2015) sold 178k on PS Vita and 47k on PS4.

I think, more than a outdated clone, there is a misfit of audience between the PS4 and the God Eater audience (that was born on portable systems).

test_account · Feb 3, 2019

Gotdatmoney said:
Honestly, I wanna standard shooter on Switch so if it runs at 60fps and is not broken I'll prob pick it up.

I think it has a good chance for that. Its an older game and its able to run at 60fps on a few year old phones if i'm not mistaken. It is possible that the developers will prioritize more detailed graphics though, but we'll see =)

Lelouch0612 said:
Without any Monster Hunter game in sight, God Eater could do well on Switch. Such a shame that being a port will significantly limit its potential.

A new title can generate more excitement for sure, but how much do you think GE3 would have sold compared to being multiplatform (day 1) or being a port later on?

Herb Alpert · Feb 3, 2019

MANUELF said:
Will Ultimate digital alone outsell Smash WiiU LTD sales?

Polygon : "That would make an interesting pie chart"

Oregano · Feb 3, 2019

test_account said:
I think it has a good chance for that. Its an older game and its able to run at 60fps on a few year old phones if i'm not mistaken. It is possible that the developers will prioritize more detailed graphics though, but we'll see =)

A new title can generate more excitement for sure, but how much do you think GE3 would have sold compared to being multiplatform (day 1) or being a port later on?

You can probably look at how Valkyria Chronicles 4(6 months later) performed compared to Tales of Vesperia(same date).

...Or look at 90% of late ports generally, with a few exceptions they always do a very small fraction of a new release.

Charamiwa · Feb 3, 2019

GE3 on Switch would probably be worth it for its western sales. It won't do much in Japan.

And at least they're aware of the demand for a portable version and acknowledge it, which is more than some other japanese devs. But then you have to wonder why it didn't become a priority considering the history of the franchise.

Oregano · Feb 3, 2019

Charamiwa said:
GE3 on Switch would probably be worth it for its western sales. It won't do much in Japan.

And at least they're aware of the demand for a portable version and acknowledge it, which is more than some other japanese devs. But then you have to wonder why it didn't become a priority considering the history of the franchise.

They're acknowledging it now, 2 months after the Japanese release and the week before the Western release where they can see how massively it declined in Japan and how non-existent hype is outside of Japan.

Throughout the project they probably expecting much better retention in Japan and massive growth in the west, especially in the wake of Monster Hunter World's success last year.

hiska-kun · Feb 3, 2019

I found these old photos of Famitsu magazine that I took long time ago. They provided a Top 10 PSN sales as you can see here (that's for September 2014):

You can see Destiny PS4 with 4406 or Minecraft PS3 with 4345. These numbers were published one or two weeks before they posted the digital ranking for September 2014. And when they do it, these are the numbers (digital in brackets):

Famitsu Sales (Retail and Digital): September 2014 (Sep 01- Sep 28)

01. [3DS] Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS <FTG> (Nintendo) {2014.09.13} (¥5.616) - 1.432.246 (90.538) / 1.522.784
02. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Ganso / Honke <RPG> (Level 5) {2014.07.10} (¥4.937) - 246.811 (12.738) / 259.549
03. [PS4] Destiny # <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2014.09.11} (¥8.532) - 107.640 (22.029) / 129.669
04. [3DS] Dragon Quest X Online <RPG> (Square Enix) {2014.09.04} (¥4.104) - 108.049 (0) / 108.049
05. [PSV] The Legend Of Heroes: Sen no Kiseki II # <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) {2014.09.25} (¥7.344) - 98.161 (4.983) / 103.144
06. [PS3] Destiny <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2014.09.11} (¥8.532) - 78.086 (14.048) / 92.134
07. [PS3] The Legend Of Heroes: Sen no Kiseki II # <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) {2014.09.25} (¥8.424) - 71.069 (4.925) / 75.994
08. [PSV] DanganRonpa: Another Episode <ACT> (Spike Chunsoft) {2014.09.25} (¥7.020) - 63.898 (5.206) / 69.104
09. [PS3] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Storm Revolution <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2014.09.11} (¥7.689) - 57.098 (2.071) / 59.169
10. [PSV] Toukiden: The Age of Demons Extreme # <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) {2014.08.28} (¥6.264) - 43.470 (2.988) / 46.458
11. [WIU] Bayonetta 2 <ACT> (Nintendo) {2014.09.20} (¥8.316) - 42.398 (2.899) / 45.297
12. [3DS] Haikyu!! Tsunage! Itadaki no Keshiki!! # <ADV> (Bandai Namco Games) {2014.09.25} (¥6.145) - 40.982 (1.296) / 42.278
13. [WIU] Fatal Frame: Oracle of the Sodden Raven <ADV> (Nintendo) {2014.09.27} (¥7.128) - 32.476 (3.024) / 35.500
14. [XB1] Titanfall # <ACT> (Electronic Arts) {2014.09.04} (¥7.884) - 29.191 (126) / 29.317
15. [PS4] Samurai Warriors 4 <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) {2014.09.04} (¥7.776) - 19.380 (5.292) / 24.672
26. [PS3] Persona 4: Arena Ultimax # <FTG> (Atlus) {2014.08.28} (¥7.538) - 22.709 (880) / 23.589
17. [PSV] Dungeon Travelers 2: Ouritsu Tokoshan to Mamono no Fuuin # <RPG> (Aqua Plus) {2014.09.25} (¥6.264) - 18.452 (4.839) / 23.291
18. [3DS] Yoshi's New Island <ACT> (Nintendo) {2014.07.24} (¥4.936) - 20.941 (1.876) / 22.817
19. [3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission 2 <TBL> (Bandai Namco Games) {2014.08.07} (¥6.145) - 22.120 (427) / 22.547
20. [PS3] Minecraft: Play Station 3 Edition <ADV> (Mojang) {2014.06.24} (¥2.057) - 0 (21.723) / 21.723
21. [WIU] Mario Kart 8 <RCE> (Nintendo) {2014.05.29} (¥6.156) - 19.598 (996) / 20.594
22. [3DS] Kirby Fighters Z <FTG> (Nintendo) {2014.07.23} (¥810) - 2.853 (17.594) / 20.447
23. [PSV] Love Live! School Idol Paradise Vol.1: Printemps / Vol.2: BiBi / Vol.3: Lily White # <ACT> (Kadokawa Games) {2014.08.28} (¥6.998) - 18.232 (378) / 18.610
24. [XB1] Kinect Sports Rivals # <SPT> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2014.09.04} (¥7.452) - 17.610 (119) / 17.729
25. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch <RPG> (Level 5) {2013.07.11} (¥4.800) - 15.971 (1.507) / 17.478
26. [3DS] Taiko no Tatsujin: Don to Katsu no Jikuu Daibouken <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2014.06.26} (¥5.119) - 13.485 (2.079) / 15.564
27. [PS3] Diablo III: Ultimate Evil Edition <RPG> (Square Enix) {2014.08.21} (¥5.184) - 12.447 (1.992) / 14.439
28. [3DS] Medarot 8: Kabuto Ver. / Kuwagata Ver. <RPG> (Rocket Company) {2014.08.28} (¥6.264) - 13.347 (1.029) / 14.376
29. [PSP] Toukiden: The Age of Demons Extreme # <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) {2014.08.28} (¥5.184) - 13.099 (398) / 13.497
30. [PSV] The Legend Of Heroes: Sen no Kiseki (Super Price Series) <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) {2014.06.26} (¥5.184) - 2.933 (10.357) / 13.290

Extra (just digital):

xx. [PS4] Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes <ADV> (Konami) {2014.03.20} (¥2.980) - * (10.640) / *
xx. [PS3] Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes <ADV> (Konami) {2014.03.20} (¥2.980) - * (9.290) / *

https://www./threads/media-create-sales-week-43-2014-oct-20-oct-26.921127/page-5#post-136842319

Just check the PSN digital numbers, they are previous numbers in the photo multiplied by 5.

Example:

Destiny (PS4) 4406 x5 = 22.030

And all the others are the same.
I don't know what are the meaning of the previous numbers, but they just use the same formula x5 for all.

These are a few more examples I found. You can check the results:

That's July 2014, just check the results (x5).

Aters · Feb 3, 2019

Nothing will make GE3 sell well, but a Switch version can make it sell less bad. Either way I don't expect there will be a GE4.

ILikeFeet · Feb 3, 2019

Aters said:
Nothing will make GE3 sell well, but a Switch version can make it sell less bad. Either way I don't expect there will be a GE4.

with Code Vein existing, I figured they moved to the next big thing

wonder when Bamco will make an anime battle royale

Media Create Sales: Week 4, 2019 (Jan 21 - Jan 27)

SalesEra Genius

Sales Heaven or Sales Hell?

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account

DF Deet Master

Sales Heaven or Sales Hell?

DF Deet Master

One Winged Slayer

SalesEra Genius

SalesEra Genius

SalesEra Genius

One Winged Slayer

One Winged Slayer

One Winged Slayer

DF Deet Master