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Jan 10, 2018
7,207
Tokyo
this, actually, makes sense.
I dont think Nintendo will meet their sales goal. And in part is fair to blame Pokemon for that.

It's also fair to blame it on their shitty 2018, relying only on 2 games released at the tail end of the year. I'm 100% confident they will fail reaching their sales objectives; even with Yoshi and fire emblem it would have been really hard. The only question that remains, for me, is by how much they will fail.
 

KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo
Yes but it's a new game. It's a remake, of course, but no one has ever played Let's Go itself before.
It's a new game, but it is also the same game. Even never playing Let's Go, I know where to find most of the Pokemon, I know all the Pokemon in the game, I know the optimal route through the game, all the important characters, etc. I get people wanting to play for nostalgia (well, I don't really because they could just play any one of the originals again), but I don't think anyone is missing out on the game if they don't play this version and have already played another iteration of it.
 

Mbolibombo

Member
Oct 29, 2017
7,043
It's also fair to blame it on their shitty 2018, relying only on 2 games released at the tail end of the year. I'm 100% confident they will fail reaching their sales objectives; even with Yoshi and fire emblem it would have been really hard. The only question that remains, for me, is by how much they will fail.

So how much do you expect them to fail with?
 

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,664
WA, australia
My guess is as bad as anyone's, but I think they'll be around 17 millions, 18 at most. A solid number all things considered.
last fiscal year, switch sold 7.24 million in quarter three, and 2.92 million in quarter four, for a total in H2 of 10.16 million. there was zero significant software released during quarter three - at least none that would drive sales - nor was there in quarter 4. this year, not only has the switch been selling better with fewer system sellers so far (meaning a relatively higher baseline of interest in the console itself), but we have two MASSIVE system sellers in the next two months, along with a relatively big game (or two?) during Q4. those games absolutely mean it will sell 3 million more than last year for H2 at the very least, that much is purely logical.

if the switch sells 3 million more than last year for this H2, it will end up at 18.23 million for the FY. that is the lowest estimate that i think is even remotely possible. nothings set in stone, and for all i know something could go wrong - but given what we know i think it is veeeery unlikely that 18 million is 'at most' what they will sell.
 

Aters

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
7,948
last fiscal year, switch sold 7.24 million in quarter three, and 2.92 million in quarter four, for a total in H2 of 10.16 million. there was zero significant software released during quarter three - at least none that would drive sales - nor was there in quarter 4. this year, not only has the switch been selling better with fewer system sellers so far (meaning a relatively higher baseline of interest in the console itself), but we have two MASSIVE system sellers in the next two months, along with a relatively big game (or two?) during Q4. those games absolutely mean it will sell 3 million more than last year for H2 at the very least, that much is purely logical.

if the switch sells 3 million more than last year for this H2, it will end up at 18.23 million for the FY. that is the lowest estimate that i think is even remotely possible. nothings set in stone, and for all i know something could go wrong - but given what we know i think it is veeeery unlikely that 18 million is 'at most' what they will sell.
Wasn't Mario Odyssey quarter three?
 

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Nov 23, 2017
6,878
im still in the "they will make it" team to the 20M mark, if Nintendo were betting so big on P/LG and the pre-orders were as lack luster as some people claim, they likely would have revised numbers if they were not confident it will make it.
that, or L/GO is indeed lackluster but Smash numbers are making up for it.


Wasn't Mario Odyssey quarter three?

Early October last year and pretty much the only high profiled game (others were Xeno 2, D44M, Bayo 1-2) till the end of fiscal year. so Mario O carried Switch for 6 months
 
Last edited:

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
im still in the "they will make it" team to the 20M mark, if Nintendo were betting so big on P/LG and the pre-orders were as lack luster as some people claim, they likely would have revised numbers if they were not confident it will make it.
that, or L/GO is indeed lackluster but Smash numbers are making up for it.




Early October last year and pretty much the only high profiled games (other were Xeno 2, D44M, Bayo 1-2) till the end of fiscal year. so Mario O carried Switch for 6 months

Nah I think they only typically revise numbers after Q3 results.

And I don't doubt that Pokemon preorders are very low, but this game's success will not be determined by the audience that typically preorders so it's a moot point anyway.
 

Renna Hazel

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,579
im still in the "they will make it" team to the 20M mark, if Nintendo were betting so big on P/LG and the pre-orders were as lack luster as some people claim, they likely would have revised numbers if they were not confident it will make it.
that, or L/GO is indeed lackluster but Smash numbers are making up for it.




Early October last year and pretty much the only high profiled games (other were Xeno 2, D44M, Bayo 1-2) till the end of fiscal year. so Mario O carried Switch for 6 months
Odyssey was late October but yeah, there weren't any other big sellers.
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
once again, Amazon is not an all done and said but
https://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/bestsellers/videogames/

it also dont help, that the game is split among like several individual SKU

True but this is a fairly recent acceleration IIRC and if you were expecting them to change their forecast based on preorders that would have had to been done in mid October.

And yeah I'm betting that Pokemon preorders globally have been picking up fairly well over the past week or so too, I think the last time we heard from Benji about US preorders was in October.

Either way I'm just pointing out that those preorders wouldn't really factor into their forecasts in October.
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,617
Q3 should be good. I'm not sure about Q4, could still ride the tails of smash and NSMBU but Nintendo hasn't mentioned any other releases. Though I'd be shocked if nothing was March.

Nintendo will suffer a bit with the other console manufacturers lowering the price for the holidays and Nintendo seemingly only has a one day MK8 bundle that's not super amazing.

If Pokemon wasn't so polazrizing, smash wasn't so late, and two other major titles weren't delayed out to 2019 it would be easier to see.
 

Smiles

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,897
Pikachu isn't the underdog anywhere. There is no way Eevee sells more in the US.
ERA just seems to have a strong Eevee following, I'll still get Pikachu
I would get both digitally if there was a way to trade between software on the same Switch. I am really not expecting to run into any Pokemon players in my circle
 

Raguy

Member
Dec 20, 2017
311
End of december 2017, US/UM did 7,17 M in one quarter.
And now, three quarters later ( end of october 2018 ), US/UM is at 7,96 M.
We all know that switch evergreens titles have better legs than that.
I'm seeing Let's Go at + 10 M ltd.
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
End of december 2017, US/UM did 7,17 M in one quarter.
And now, three quarters later ( end of october 2018 ), US/UM is at 7,96 M.
We all know that switch evergreens titles have better legs than that.
I'm seeing Let's Go at + 10 M ltd.
Switch evergreens also aren't yearly titles. Gen 8 is gonna cut LG's legs eventually. 10M is a reasonable figure, but that's a post-holiday number for most. what LG will leg it to when Gen 8 releases is the question
 

Mbolibombo

Member
Oct 29, 2017
7,043
Q3 should be good. I'm not sure about Q4, could still ride the tails of smash and NSMBU but Nintendo hasn't mentioned any other releases. Though I'd be shocked if nothing was March.

Nintendo will suffer a bit with the other console manufacturers lowering the price for the holidays and Nintendo seemingly only has a one day MK8 bundle that's not super amazing.

If Pokemon wasn't so polazrizing, smash wasn't so late, and two other major titles weren't delayed out to 2019 it would be easier to see.

About Q4 - I'm sure it's going to be better than 2017 Q4 by a good amount...

Pokemon has 4,5 months and Smash has almost 4 months to boost Switch sales for the fiscal year I think that's enough time to sell systems myself. We're likely going to see one of the already mentioned games release in march where Yoshi seems like the most obvious game but wouldnt rule out Fire Emblem or Daemon X Machina either. And that alone without knowing much else should make sure that Q4 will easily beat alst years.


But yeah, anything could happen... I cant really see anything below 18M for the full year happen though.
 

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,664
WA, australia
Wasn't Mario Odyssey quarter three?
whoops, i messed that up, odyssey indeed was q3. for some reason my brain didn't recognise that october is part of q3.

still, pokemon and smash combined have nearly double the appeal of odyssey, whilst games like odyssey/botw/mkart will still sell extremely well this holiday too and push consoles in their own right. thats not to mention NSMBUDX and a potential fire emblem/yoshi in Q4. more than 18 million is guaranteed imo.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Switch evergreens also aren't yearly titles. Gen 8 is gonna cut LG's legs eventually. 10M is a reasonable figure, but that's a post-holiday number for most. what LG will leg it to when Gen 8 releases is the question
Right, but the collapse in shipments for USUM was quite extraordinary tbh. Let's Go should be able to do better percentage-wise imo.
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
Right, but the collapse in shipments for USUM was quite extraordinary tbh. Let's Go should be able to do better percentage-wise imo.
collapse? I think it's legs are actually surprising people. don't think many expected it to keep charting or sale as high as it is. USUM is one of the highest third versions (behind Yellow and BW2) despite the collapse of 3DS software.
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Week 46, 2018 (Nov 12 - Nov 18)

new releases

{2018.11.12}
[PS4] Hitman 2 (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| (Gold Edition) <ADV> (Warner Entertainment Japan) (¥10.800)
[XB1] Hitman 2 _Download Version_ |DL| (Gold Edition) <ADV> (Warner Entertainment Japan) (¥10.800)

{2018.11.13}
[XB1] Spyro Reignited Trilogy <Spyro the Dragon \ Spyro 2: Ripto's Rage! \ Spyro: Year of the Dragon> _Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Activision) (¥4.900)

{2018.11.15}
[PSV] Shiro to Kuro no Alice: Twilight Line # <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥6.300)
[PSV] Shiro to Kuro no Alice: Twilight Line (Limited Edition) <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥8.300)
[PSV] Shiro to Kuro no Alice: Twilight Line (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥5.800)
[NSW] Gesshizu: Gajigaji Nakama wo Sodateyou <SLG> (Nippon Columbia) (¥5.800)
[NSW] Gesshizu: Gajigaji Nakama wo Sodateyou (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <SLG> (Nippon Columbia) (¥5.800)
[NSW] Sports Party <SPT> (Ubisoft) (¥4.800)
[NSW] Sports Party (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <SPT> (Ubisoft) (¥4.800)
[NSW] Legendary Fishing <SPT> (Ubisoft) (¥4.800)
[NSW] Legendary Fishing (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <SPT> (Ubisoft) (¥4.800)
[NSW] RPG Maker MV Trinity <ETC> (Kadokawa Games) (¥7.800)
[NSW] RPG Maker MV Trinity (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ETC> (Kadokawa Games) (¥7.800)
[NSW] Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate [Best Price] <ACT> (Capcom) (¥3.990)
[NSW] Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| [Best Price] <ACT> (Capcom) (¥3.694)
[NSW] Trailblazers _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <RCE> (Rising Star Games) (¥3.685)
[NSW] Will: A Wonderful World _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ADV> (Playism) (¥1.370)
[NSW] Solitaire Battle Royal _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <TBL> (Making) (¥1.111)
[NSW] Gem Crash _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <PZL> (Double Drive) (¥629)
[PS4] Fallout 76 # <RPG> (Bethesda Softworks) (¥7.980)
[PS4] Fallout 76 (1)(Tricentennial Edition) <RPG> (Bethesda Softworks) (¥9.980)
[PS4] Fallout 76 (2)(Power Armor Edition) <RPG> (Bethesda Softworks) (¥24.980)
[PS4] Fallout 76 (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| # <RPG> (Bethesda Softworks) (¥7.980)
[PS4] Fallout 76 (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| (Tricentennial Edition) <RPG> (Bethesda Softworks) (¥9.980)
[PS4] Hitman 2 <ADV> (Warner Entertainment Japan) (¥7.800)
[PS4] Hitman 2 (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| # <ADV> (Warner Entertainment Japan) (¥7.300)
[PS4] Yuuna and the Haunted Hot Springs: Steam Dungeon # <RPG> (FuRyu) (¥7.980)
[PS4] Yuuna and the Haunted Hot Springs: Steam Dungeon (First Print Limited Edition) <RPG> (FuRyu) (¥10.980)
[PS4] Yuuna and the Haunted Hot Springs: Steam Dungeon (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (FuRyu) (¥7.980)
[PS4] RPG Maker MV Trinity <ETC> (Kadokawa Games) (¥7.800)
[PS4] RPG Maker MV Trinity (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ETC> (Kadokawa Games) (¥7.800)
[PS4] Will: A Wonderful World _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Playism) (¥1.370)
[XB1] Fallout 76 _Download Version_ |DL| # <RPG> (Bethesda Softworks) (¥7.980)
[XB1] Fallout 76 _Download Version_ |DL| (Tricentennial Edition) <RPG> (Bethesda Softworks) (¥9.980)
[XB1] Hitman 2 _Download Version_ |DL| # <ADV> (Warner Entertainment Japan) (¥7.300)

{2018.11.16}
[NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Set) <BUN> (Nintendo) (¥36.980)
[NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) (¥5.980)
[NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! (1)(Poke Ball Plus Set) <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) (¥9.980)
[NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! (2)(Nintendo Switch Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! Set with Poke Ball Plus) <BUN> (Nintendo) (¥37.980)
[NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) (¥5.980)
[NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Eevee! # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) (¥5.980)
[NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Eevee! (1)(Poke Ball Plus Set) <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) (¥9.980)
[NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Eevee! (2)(Nintendo Switch Pokemon: Let's Go, Eevee! Set with Poke Ball Plus) <BUN> (Nintendo) (¥37.980)
[NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Eevee! (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) (¥5.980)
[NSW] Sid Meier's Civilization VI (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <SLG> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥5.740)
[PS4] The Quiet Man _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Square Enix) (¥1.800)
___

YSO predictions

01. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! < 650k (average 600k) [week 1]
02. [PS4] Fallout 76 < 120k (average 110k) [week 1]
03. < 20k
 

krlitros87

Member
Oct 28, 2017
527
Digital ratio of Pokemon on Switch will be stronger than 3DS but don't expect any miracles, maybe 10%.

Smash Bros. will be much higher than this.
Yeah, but remember the 600 GP deal with Smash.
I'd like to know the reasoning behind these deals on Tennis, Party and Smash. It's because they are multiplayer games? Because I don't remember the same deal with Splatoon for instance.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
I could see 600k for each version, not combined like YSO seems to predict. Am I too optimistic?
Doesn't USUM sold 1,2 million in it's first week?

I think they are underestimating it a bit (my bet is 700k) but 1.2 m doesn't seem possible.

US/UM release on a platform with 5x times the userbase and with the audience already established.
 
Jan 2, 2018
10,699
Yeah, but remember the 600 GP deal with Smash.

The same deal applies to Pokémon.

From November 1 to November 18, 2018 11:59pm JST, customers who purchase Pokemon Let's GO Pikachu or Pokemon Let's GO Eevee from the Nintendo eShop will receive double the amount of Gold Points on My Nintendo.

https:///japan-pre-order-pokemon-lets-go-pikachu-eevee-for-double-gold-points/

I think they are underestimating it a bit (my bet is 700k) but 1.2 m doesn't seem possible.

US/UM release on a platform with 5x times the userbase and with the audience already established.

But US/UM launched on a nearly dead system. I thought the great software sales of the Switch combined with a small portion of Pokémon Go players who will be tempted would boost the sales of the first HD Pokémon you can also play on your TV.
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
Pre-orders aren't great so due to the target audience shift launch sales will probably be much more important than other recent Pokemon titles which makes it very hard to predict. I'm not surprised the YSO algorithms ended up predicting it as such.
 

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
I think its going to be harder than usual to get an accurate gauge of Let's Go first week sales due to 1) uncertainty with the different SKU's; 2) not knowing the amount of hardware bundles available' and 3) a seemingly different demographic/target audience from the usual mainline games, at least to some extent
 

mjw

Member
Oct 27, 2017
540
That's dead in the middle of the range I estimated for Lets Go. But YSO could still be off so who knows
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
Lets Go could also be like Labo where all the traditional avenues pointing to an underperformance are accurate and that it's not going to be a massive hit because of other demographics.

Even Joe/Serebii has been saying the games are getting very low engagement compared to the normal games.
 

Charamiwa

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,056
Lets Go could also be like Labo where all the traditional avenues pointing to an underperformance are accurate and that it's not going to be a massive hit because of other demographics.

Even Joe/Serebii has been saying the games are getting very low engagement compared to the normal games.
Let's Go reminds me of Labo a lot. Chasing a different audience that might never come due to high price of entry and overall interest. At least Pokémon has a comfortable cushion so it'll never bomb.
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,617
Because Nintendo refused to lower the price, switch is going to be too expensive for children's games.

LABO might have been better suited when the switch was cheap as a Kinect style hardware seller.

Pokemon Let's Go skews to a younger audience than even the other Pokémon games and they're hoping Pokémon Go players like the game enough to drop $360 on it.

Guess we'll see if the Pokémon's expanded brand and new enticing hardware is enough to make up for those circumstances
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
Because Nintendo refused to lower the price, switch is going to be too expensive for children's games.

LABO might have been better suited when the switch was cheap as a Kinect style hardware seller.

Pokemon Let's Go skews to a younger audience than even the other Pokémon games and they're hoping Pokémon Go players like the game enough to drop $360 on it.

Guess we'll see if the Pokémon's expanded brand and new enticing hardware is enough to make up for those circumstances
I mean aren't kids still a major buying demographic for the switch in Japan. i don't think the switches high price is what's limiting this and I mean you don't see Splatoon selling mainly to adults.. Pokemon typically sells hardware not the otherway around. If this game underperforms the blame lays the inherent appeal of the product itself.
 

krlitros87

Member
Oct 28, 2017
527
The same deal applies to Pokémon.



https:///japan-pre-order-pokemon-lets-go-pikachu-eevee-for-double-gold-points/



But US/UM launched on a nearly dead system. I thought the great software sales of the Switch combined with a small portion of Pokémon Go players who will be tempted would boost the sales of the first HD Pokémon you can also play on your TV.
WHY ONLY JAPAN!!
:(
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Hardware sales on Pokemon launch will also tell us a lot about whether the game managed to attract a new audience. Switch audience is not diverse enough yet, games like Let's Go and AC are needed.

Chris1964 it is weird they are not anticipating a big bump for other games. I would be surprised if SMP is under 20k during this special week.
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
It's a group of "random" people doing predictions...
That sounds awfully low tech.... Do they really not use predictive algorithms at all? I assume those predictions are atleast based on data but man I'm still at a loss of why... Even the chair your sitting on if your sitting on a chair was most probably designed with the help algorithms. That's how omnipresent it is due to cheap computing power. I Just don't understand.