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Media Create Sales: Week 44, 2018 (Oct 29 - Nov 04)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
OP
OP
There are more than 20 SKUs for Pokemon LG at amazon with hardware bundles sold out.
by not being the lead/playable character in her own game. b/c if she was what would Link do?
She is the true hero in BotW tho, so she deserves all the credit.
But, how? I mean PS4 will at least sell 250k in these weeks, Switch would have to sell something close to 2m to get there.
by "she" i didn't mean the character of zelda, i used "she" to figuratively refer to the game.
and my response was using Nintendo's words on why Zelda isn't playable
The ones I know about are:
LGP-game
LGE-game
LGP-game-pokeball
LGE-game-pokeball
LGP-game-pokeball-console
LGE-game-pokeball-console
Which are the others?
If ur assuming the ps4 will be at 7.5M by end of yr, then switch needs to be at 4.2M ytd, which is 2.15M left. Last yr, switch had 3.3M ytd with just mario odyssey. They need to sell 900k more this holiday than last year whith smp, pokemon and smash. Its a big task
Last year, during the 8 remaining weeks :
Code:
84.593 90.303 133.746 150.583 193.717 230.259 303.504 115.255Biggest game that released during those 8 weeks last year was Xenoblade. Plus, the Switch was supply-constrained.
This year they have Pokemon, Smash and Dragon Quest Builders. An increase is a given, the extent of it is the question mark and will answer your question.
Basically, the switch need to sell 100k more on average every week to beat ps4 ltd by end of year
Yes, it will be very difficult imo but two heavy hitters so close from each others make things very interesting.
I would guess that retailers are going to push very hard the Switch too. The 3DS is nearly dead and the PS4 won't do big numbers this end of the year.
Their Q4 numbers (so important for them) are going to depend entirely on the Switch (HW and SW). I will be interesting to see how they are going to attract people to their stores (ads, deals ...).
Their Q4 numbers (so important for them) are going to depend entirely on the Switch (HW and SW). I will be interesting to see how they are going to attract people to their stores (ads, deals ...).
OP
OP
For every SKU you list there are amazon limited editions, most of them are sold out. You can see some of them in top 100.
OP
OP
I didn't say it will happen.
What I said is what Switch needs to sell so that it has a chance. Half million at last 3 weeks of November means a huge December.
Thanks! I'll take a look at it.
More importantly, What are your thoughts about the launch of the LG games? I remember that a few weeks ago you were a bit worried about its potential sales. Have things changes during these weeks?
Hmm, it's down 50k and next week it has to contend with a 80k week. The week Pokémon drops it'll probably be down 80k-ish and will have to deal with a 87k week out of the gate.
I think Pokemon has a shot to beat Splatoon 2's 648k launch and I'm sure Switch sales will beat Mario's launch Switch sales of 126k. It'll be huge and I'm prepared to eat crow over this one too but I don't see it getting on parity with 2017 until at least after the Smash launch.
OP
OP
Weekly retailer hints vol.2
Slow start for Luigi's Mansion, YSO will be right this time.
Initial shipment of Pokemon Let's Go will be north of 1m. For bundles there aren't safe estimates, pure speculation but combined getting close to 200k isn't impossible.
Hitman 2 will come and leave unnoticed next week, Fallout 76 will have better faith but nothing worth writing.
Slow start for Luigi's Mansion, YSO will be right this time.
Initial shipment of Pokemon Let's Go will be north of 1m. For bundles there aren't safe estimates, pure speculation but combined getting close to 200k isn't impossible.
Hitman 2 will come and leave unnoticed next week, Fallout 76 will have better faith but nothing worth writing.
8 Empty Holiday Weeks
Week 44 2017: 64.387(-49%)
Week 45 2017: 79.958(+24%)
Week 46 2017: 86.999(+9%)
Week 47 2017: 145.200(+67%)
Week 48 2017: 124.770(-14%)
Week 49 2017: 164.908(+32%)
Week 50 2017: 221.210(+34%)
Week 51 2017: 269.684(+21%)
Week 52 2017:134.519(-50%)
TOTAL: 1.291.625
AVERAGE PER WEEK: 161.453
Outside of Pokemon Lets Go, Smash Ultimate you also have Dragon Quest Builders 2 and probably a big December Splatoon 2 update - along with updates for other games like Kirby, Mario Tennis Aces.
Last year the only notable game that launched on the Switch during the same period was Xenoblade 2 and there was also a substantial Splatoon 2 update for Christmas. Yet the Switch sold 161K per week. I'm pretty sure that if the Switch isn't ahead by Week 52 it will be ahead Week 1 of 2019.
Is that speculation for just the Pokemon bundles or is the Smash one included too?
OP
OP
All bundles but like I said it's speculation.
They could be 150, 200 or 250k.
So we are in the 1m to 1.5m range for Let's Go. It seems in line with expectations, unless legs are unusually strong or weak it should sell similarly to OR/AS.
Yes obviously. 700-800k seems a good estimate for now + good legs during the upcoming months.
So the gap between MC and Famitsu will be just as fat as last year's US/UM release.
2018 Switch Prediction
Week 45 2018: 60K
Week 46 2018: 180K Pokemon + Other Bundles
Week 47 2018: 160K
Week 48 2018: 200K Mario Party Joycon
Week 49 2018: 280K Smash
Week 50 2018: 300K
Week 51 2018: 380K DQB2
Week 52 2018: 250K
TOTAL: 1,810K
AVERAGE PER WEEK: 226K
Worldwide Q3
Japan 2M
Others 4M
USA 5M
Lets GO Nintendo!
Doesn't Famitsu count download cards in its totals? Does MC do that now too?
Week 45 will still be 40k-ish. 50k at best.
Bundles are always included, even if they are download cards.
Bundles are always included, even if they are download cards.
The thing is that most of your observations are rather sensible, and I just can't picture that scenario. Thus, I'm just trying to understand.
2m in these last weeks would be incredible tho.
First Day Sell-through {2018.11.08}
[3DS] Luigi's Mansion <ACT> (Nintendo) (¥4.980) - 20%
[PS4] Deracine |PlayStation VR| # <ADV> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) (¥3.000) - 30%
[NSW] Pikachin-Kit: Game de Pirameki Daisakusen! <ADV> (FuRyu) (¥5.980) - 0% (less than 10%)
[3DS] Luigi's Mansion <ACT> (Nintendo) (¥4.980) - 20%
[PS4] Deracine |PlayStation VR| # <ADV> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) (¥3.000) - 30%
[NSW] Pikachin-Kit: Game de Pirameki Daisakusen! <ADV> (FuRyu) (¥5.980) - 0% (less than 10%)
Nintendo eShop Sales: November 1st to November 7th 2018
Nintendo eShop – Nintendo Switch
01./01. – Puyo Puyo eSports (SEGA) [25.10.2018] (massive launch discount)
02./New – Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo) [07.12.2018]
03./New – Super Smash Bros. Ultimate + Fighter Pass (Nintendo) [07.12.2018]
04./New – Pokémon: Let's Go, Pikachu! (The Pokémon Company) [16.11.2018]
05./03. – Minecraft (Mojang / Microsoft Japan) [21.6.2018]
06./02. – Super Mario Party (Nintendo) [05.10.2018]
07./New – Pokémon: Let's Go, Eevee! (The Pokémon Company) [16.11.2018]
08./05. – Undertale (8-4) [15.9.2018]
09./06. – Overcooked! 2 (Team17) [07.8.2018]
10./New – World of Final Fantasy Maxima (Square-Enix) [06.11.2018]
11./15. – SEGA Ages Phantasy Star (SEGA) [31.10.2018]
12./10. – Stardew Valley (Chucklefish) [12.1.2018]
13./14. – Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) [28.12.2017]
14./08. – Minna de Kuuki Yomi (GMode) [30.8.2018]
15./04. – PIANISTA (Superb) [25.10.2018] (launch discount)
16./07. – Dark Souls Remastered (From Software) [18.10.2018]
17./16. – Ultimate Chicken Horse (Clever Endeavour Games) [25.9.2018]
18./17. – Hollow Knight (Team Cherry) [13.6.2018]
19./20. – Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) [28.4.2017]
20./09. – Magic Scroll Tactics (mediascape) [25.10.2018]
Nintendo eShop – Nintendo 3DS
01./01. – The Battle Cats POP (Ponos) [31.5.2015]
02./02. – Pokémon Crystal Version (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [26.1.2018]
03./03. – Minecraft: New Nintendo 3DS Edition (Microsoft Japan) [14.9.2017]
04./New – Luigi's Mansion (Nintendo) [08.11.2018]
05./04. – Dragon Quest III (Square-Enix) [24.8.2017]
06./05. – Ice Station Z (Wobbly Tooth) [05.4.2017]
07./06. – Bike Rider DX (Spicysoft) [26.12.2012]
08./07. – Battleminerz (Wobbly Tooth) [17.1.2018]
09./08. – EarthBound (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [04.3.2016]
10./09. – Dragon Quest II (Square-Enix) [10.8.2017]
https://topics.nintendo.co.jp/c/article/5148e833-e0a8-11e8-8bfe-0a6d14145cb1.html
Damn, that Puyo Puyo eSports somehow managed to stay at #1. Thanks launch discount (and Smash having 2 SKUs).
Nintendo eShop – Nintendo Switch
01./01. – Puyo Puyo eSports (SEGA) [25.10.2018] (massive launch discount)
02./New – Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo) [07.12.2018]
03./New – Super Smash Bros. Ultimate + Fighter Pass (Nintendo) [07.12.2018]
04./New – Pokémon: Let's Go, Pikachu! (The Pokémon Company) [16.11.2018]
05./03. – Minecraft (Mojang / Microsoft Japan) [21.6.2018]
06./02. – Super Mario Party (Nintendo) [05.10.2018]
07./New – Pokémon: Let's Go, Eevee! (The Pokémon Company) [16.11.2018]
08./05. – Undertale (8-4) [15.9.2018]
09./06. – Overcooked! 2 (Team17) [07.8.2018]
10./New – World of Final Fantasy Maxima (Square-Enix) [06.11.2018]
11./15. – SEGA Ages Phantasy Star (SEGA) [31.10.2018]
12./10. – Stardew Valley (Chucklefish) [12.1.2018]
13./14. – Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) [28.12.2017]
14./08. – Minna de Kuuki Yomi (GMode) [30.8.2018]
15./04. – PIANISTA (Superb) [25.10.2018] (launch discount)
16./07. – Dark Souls Remastered (From Software) [18.10.2018]
17./16. – Ultimate Chicken Horse (Clever Endeavour Games) [25.9.2018]
18./17. – Hollow Knight (Team Cherry) [13.6.2018]
19./20. – Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) [28.4.2017]
20./09. – Magic Scroll Tactics (mediascape) [25.10.2018]
Nintendo eShop – Nintendo 3DS
01./01. – The Battle Cats POP (Ponos) [31.5.2015]
02./02. – Pokémon Crystal Version (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [26.1.2018]
03./03. – Minecraft: New Nintendo 3DS Edition (Microsoft Japan) [14.9.2017]
04./New – Luigi's Mansion (Nintendo) [08.11.2018]
05./04. – Dragon Quest III (Square-Enix) [24.8.2017]
06./05. – Ice Station Z (Wobbly Tooth) [05.4.2017]
07./06. – Bike Rider DX (Spicysoft) [26.12.2012]
08./07. – Battleminerz (Wobbly Tooth) [17.1.2018]
09./08. – EarthBound (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [04.3.2016]
10./09. – Dragon Quest II (Square-Enix) [10.8.2017]
https://topics.nintendo.co.jp/c/article/5148e833-e0a8-11e8-8bfe-0a6d14145cb1.html
Damn, that Puyo Puyo eSports somehow managed to stay at #1. Thanks launch discount (and Smash having 2 SKUs).
Last edited:
OP
OP
630.552 - PS2 launch 2000.03.04, 2 days
614.748 - NDS Christmas week 2005, 2005.12.19 - 2005.12.25
Famitsu numbers
I really wish Nintendo would be sane enough to release LM1 and 2 on Switch before 3 comes out.
Even worse than I expected...
I imagine this isn't a huge shipment
As expected for LM, though I guess weekend sales will help prevent sub 50% sell-through.
Pikachin-Kit somehow managed to do even worse than I was expecting, FuRyu is on fire.
that's completely possible, it's an avg of ~250K per week. Next week will be already close to that, and should be able to sell 300/400K some weeks of December.
Nintendo eShop Sales: November 1st to November 7th 2018
Nintendo eShop – Nintendo Switch
01./01. – Puyo Puyo eSports (SEGA) [25.10.2018] (massive launch discount)
02./New – Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo) [07.12.2018]
03./New – Super Smash Bros. Ultimate + Fighter Pass (Nintendo) [07.12.2018]
04./New – Pokémon: Let's Go, Pikachu! (The Pokémon Company) [16.11.2018]
05./03. – Minecraft (Mojang / Microsoft Japan) [21.6.2018]
06./02. – Super Mario Party (Nintendo) [05.10.2018]
07./New – Pokémon: Let's Go, Eevee! (The Pokémon Company) [16.11.2018]
08./05. – Undertale (8-4) [15.9.2018]
09./06. – Overcooked! 2 (Team17) [07.8.2018]
10./New – World of Final Fantasy Maxima (Square-Enix) [06.11.2018]
11./15. – SEGA Ages Phantasy Star (SEGA) [31.10.2018]
12./10. – Stardew Valley (Chucklefish) [12.1.2018]
13./14. – Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) [28.12.2017]
14./08. – Minna de Kuuki Yomi (GMode) [30.8.2018]
15./04. – PIANISTA (Superb) [25.10.2018] (launch discount)
16./07. – Dark Souls Remastered (From Software) [18.10.2018]
17./16. – Ultimate Chicken Horse (Clever Endeavour Games) [25.9.2018]
18./17. – Hollow Knight (Team Cherry) [13.6.2018]
19./20. – Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) [28.4.2017]
20./09. – Magic Scroll Tactics (mediascape) [25.10.2018]
https://topics.nintendo.co.jp/c/article/5148e833-e0a8-11e8-8bfe-0a6d14145cb1.html
Nintendo eShop – Nintendo Switch
01./01. – Puyo Puyo eSports (SEGA) [25.10.2018] (massive launch discount)
02./New – Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo) [07.12.2018]
03./New – Super Smash Bros. Ultimate + Fighter Pass (Nintendo) [07.12.2018]
04./New – Pokémon: Let's Go, Pikachu! (The Pokémon Company) [16.11.2018]
05./03. – Minecraft (Mojang / Microsoft Japan) [21.6.2018]
06./02. – Super Mario Party (Nintendo) [05.10.2018]
07./New – Pokémon: Let's Go, Eevee! (The Pokémon Company) [16.11.2018]
08./05. – Undertale (8-4) [15.9.2018]
09./06. – Overcooked! 2 (Team17) [07.8.2018]
10./New – World of Final Fantasy Maxima (Square-Enix) [06.11.2018]
11./15. – SEGA Ages Phantasy Star (SEGA) [31.10.2018]
12./10. – Stardew Valley (Chucklefish) [12.1.2018]
13./14. – Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) [28.12.2017]
14./08. – Minna de Kuuki Yomi (GMode) [30.8.2018]
15./04. – PIANISTA (Superb) [25.10.2018] (launch discount)
16./07. – Dark Souls Remastered (From Software) [18.10.2018]
17./16. – Ultimate Chicken Horse (Clever Endeavour Games) [25.9.2018]
18./17. – Hollow Knight (Team Cherry) [13.6.2018]
19./20. – Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) [28.4.2017]
20./09. – Magic Scroll Tactics (mediascape) [25.10.2018]
https://topics.nintendo.co.jp/c/article/5148e833-e0a8-11e8-8bfe-0a6d14145cb1.html
Did you read the others posts in the thread?
Switch winter sales last year were nothing to write home about, there was also no heavy hitter to push it after Odyssey release in late October while this year we have both Pokemon and Smash which are bigger and both bundled.
There are more evergreen than ever, 3DS is even more of a non factor, there's nothing on PS4 so retaillers will have to push Switch if they want to get sales, historical data will tell you that launch year isn't peak year...
There's litteraly nothing indicating that Switch couldn't be up YOY, looking at both line-up and statistics
OP
OP
These are the long running bundles from the moment Nintendo decided to follow this strategy.
2013
[WIU] Wii Party U \ New Super Mario Bros. U - Wii U Family Premium Set Black <BUN> (Nintendo) {2013.10.31} (¥31.239)
[WIU] Wii Party U \ New Super Mario Bros. U - Wii U Family Premium Set White <BUN> (Nintendo) {2013.10.31} (¥31.239)
[WIU] Wii Party U \ New Super Mario Bros. U \ Wii Fit U - Wii U Family Premium Set Black <BUN> (Nintendo) {2013.10.31} (¥33.143)
[WIU] Wii Party U \ New Super Mario Bros. U \ Wii Fit U - Wii U Family Premium Set White <BUN> (Nintendo) {2013.10.31} (¥33.143)
2014
[WIU] Wii U Family Mario Kart 8 Set White <BUN> (Nintendo) {2014.11.13} (¥32.800)
[WIU] Wii U Family Mario Kart 8 Set Black Limited <BUN> (Nintendo) {2014.11.13} (¥32.800)
2015
[WIU] Wii U Splatoon Set <BUN> (Nintendo) {2015.11.12} (¥34.000)
2016
[WIU] Wii U Splatoon Set - Callie & Marie amiibo <BUN> (Nintendo) {2016.07.07} (¥37.000)
2017
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Splatoon 2 Set <BUN> (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} (¥35.960)
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Super Mario Odyssey Set <BUN> (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} (¥37.980)
2018
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Splatoon 2 Set + Nintendo Switch Online 3 Months Individual Membership <BUN> (Nintendo) {2018.07.13} (¥35.960)
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! Set <BUN> (Nintendo) {2018.11.16} (¥37.980)
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Pokemon: Let's Go, Eevee! Set <BUN> (Nintendo) {2018.11.16} (¥37.980)
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Set <BUN> (Nintendo) {2018.11.16} (¥36.980)
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Minecraft Set <BUN> (Nintendo) {2018.11.30} (¥33.000)
It's the first time they go so aggressive since 2013. Mario Kart 8 bundle next year didn't work out as well despite internal target being sales of holidays 2014 to match those of holidays 2013.
2013
[WIU] Wii Party U \ New Super Mario Bros. U - Wii U Family Premium Set Black <BUN> (Nintendo) {2013.10.31} (¥31.239)
[WIU] Wii Party U \ New Super Mario Bros. U - Wii U Family Premium Set White <BUN> (Nintendo) {2013.10.31} (¥31.239)
[WIU] Wii Party U \ New Super Mario Bros. U \ Wii Fit U - Wii U Family Premium Set Black <BUN> (Nintendo) {2013.10.31} (¥33.143)
[WIU] Wii Party U \ New Super Mario Bros. U \ Wii Fit U - Wii U Family Premium Set White <BUN> (Nintendo) {2013.10.31} (¥33.143)
2014
[WIU] Wii U Family Mario Kart 8 Set White <BUN> (Nintendo) {2014.11.13} (¥32.800)
[WIU] Wii U Family Mario Kart 8 Set Black Limited <BUN> (Nintendo) {2014.11.13} (¥32.800)
2015
[WIU] Wii U Splatoon Set <BUN> (Nintendo) {2015.11.12} (¥34.000)
2016
[WIU] Wii U Splatoon Set - Callie & Marie amiibo <BUN> (Nintendo) {2016.07.07} (¥37.000)
2017
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Splatoon 2 Set <BUN> (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} (¥35.960)
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Super Mario Odyssey Set <BUN> (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} (¥37.980)
2018
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Splatoon 2 Set + Nintendo Switch Online 3 Months Individual Membership <BUN> (Nintendo) {2018.07.13} (¥35.960)
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! Set <BUN> (Nintendo) {2018.11.16} (¥37.980)
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Pokemon: Let's Go, Eevee! Set <BUN> (Nintendo) {2018.11.16} (¥37.980)
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Set <BUN> (Nintendo) {2018.11.16} (¥36.980)
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Minecraft Set <BUN> (Nintendo) {2018.11.30} (¥33.000)
It's the first time they go so aggressive since 2013. Mario Kart 8 bundle next year didn't work out as well despite internal target being sales of holidays 2014 to match those of holidays 2013.
2015 had Mario Maker bundle as well, and if i remember correctly, that was the biggest bundle for Switch during 2015 holidays.
There was still a bit of a shortage last winter if I remember correctly.
I think Switch will do this year, not sure if it will pass the PS4 by January, but it won't be far off.
In regards to Luigi Mansion, I think it will do okay too, I expect it to be a slow burn. Nintendo has been advertising well, during morning news, primetime shows, and during children's evening anime.
Yup, already said it, but I'm expecting a similar sales trajectory as WarioWare Gold. Slow but steady. Still won't be anywhere near the sales potential it would have had if it had launched 2 years ago.