Media Create Sales: Week 44, 2019 (Oct 28 - Nov 03)

[Celine]

Third year in Switch lifespan and this is the list of third-party games that have sold more than 200K at retail per Famitsu:

Minecraft (Microsoft Game Studios) - 987.202
Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age - Definitive Edition (Square Enix) - 421.548
Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'N' Fun! (Bandai Namco Games) - 367.087
Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate (Capcom) - 285.310
Yo-kai Watch 4 (Level 5) - 279.438
Dragon Quest Builders 2 (Square Enix) - 275.146
Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai Namco Games) - 208.592

Barring Minecraft, it's quite similar to Wii (waiting for the next Momotaro Dentetsu).
There are differences between Wii and NSW though.
The former was aimed at casual gamers, the latter at lapsed gamers / gamers who find value in playing console games everywhere and whenever they can.
The former didn't have multiplatform development in mind, the latter does.
Both are similar in that it is Nintendo who bet on the platform while third-parties were cold on it.
You reap what you sow.

 

[Fisico]

Of course they do. Cold Steel 1 and 2 came out in 2013-14 I think. Haven't played 3 yet.

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Well, I'm definitely no authority since I haven't played them (if it's not a Falcom ARPG, I'm not really that interested) but I was under the impression that the general sentiment was that quality wise the Cold Steel series is a hefty drop from the Sky trilogy and Crossbell duo.

I guess it depends on what you favor in a JRPG but I have a tough time really putting even the Sky trilogy (which I have played 2/3 of) up there with Dragon Quest, Xenoblade, SMT, etc. Falcom seems a lot more competitive in the ARPG space but that's also a smaller pool of stuff and nothing really super well regarded except Platinum titles and Zelda now.

Click to shrink...

To each their own, it's just a blanket statement, I played and finished Cold Steel 1 and it was a huge drag that lasted too long for its own good, story wise a big part of the ending was invalidated right in the sequel which really left a sour taste, then Falcom told its handheld audience to fuck off and get a home console for the third entry which should have been the last, and then they went on to release a 4th title for a series where all previous games were already way too long for their own good.

Investigating what the payoff of all that was about there doesn't seem to be anything worth it so that's where my experience with Falcom games stopped for now, friends who happened to have followed Capcom for much longer also mostly consider Sen No Kiseki the worst Kiseki series so far (which doesn't mean it's bad, just below what they did before).
I'm willing to give Falcom games another chance later but not on home console and not on a time sink that keeps dragging on

Music is good, battle system interesting, and some dialog writing is clearly up there (the ones with NPC, ironically) though.

As for why it gets so much coverage there, it was mentionned earlier but nurturing your audience on handhelds for more than a decade and suddenly moving to home console exclusives DURING a series is a change that not everyone was willing to accept. If the reverse was to happen you would never hear the end of it on western forums (case in point : Valkyria Chronicles) but since home consoles are king there it's barely a thing besides the odd posters more closer to the japanese audience which you would expect to find here a bit more than elsewhere.
Oh they lost sales and shrank their audience as well (for Sen no Kiseki that is), anywhere between 20 to 40% so for those who are interested in numbers it's a good example of bad practice to put the emphasis on.

 

[fiendcode]

To each their own, it's just a blanket statement, I played and finished Cold Steel 1 and it was a huge drag that lasted too long for its own good, story wise a big part of the ending was invalidated right in the sequel which really left a sour taste, then Falcom told its handheld audience to fuck off and get a home console for the third entry which should have been the last, and then they went on to release a 4th title for a series where all previous games were already way too long for their own good.

Investigating what the payoff of all that was about there doesn't seem to be anything worth it so that's where my experience with Falcom games stopped for now, friends who happened to have followed Capcom for much longer also mostly consider Sen No Kiseki the worst Kiseki series so far (which doesn't mean it's bad, just below what they did before).
I'm willing to give Falcom games another chance later but not on home console and not on a time sink that keeps dragging on

Music is good, battle system interesting, and some dialog writing is clearly up there (the ones with NPC, ironically) though.

As for why it gets so much coverage there, it was mentionned earlier but nurturing your audience on handhelds for more than a decade and suddenly moving to home console exclusives DURING a series is a change that not everyone was willing to accept. If the reverse was to happen you would never hear the end of it on western forums (case in point : Valkyria Chronicles) but since home consoles are king there it's barely a thing besides the odd posters more closer to the japanese audience which you would expect to find here a bit more than elsewhere.
Oh they lost sales and shrank their audience as well (for Sen no Kiseki that is), anywhere between 20 to 40% so for those who are interested in numbers it's a good example of bad practice to put the emphasis on.

Click to shrink...

Thanks for the insight! Yeah, this what I tend to see from Falcom fans generally regarding Trails. It's bit different from Ys, where VIII is often seen as a nice step up from Seven and Celceta, but we'll have to see how response to IX goes.

Also nice freudian slip there. ;)

 

[Chris1964]

No Black Friday in Japan again. Retailers tried 2-3 years ago but interest was low and it has been abandoned anymore.

Nintendo's holiday campaign begins at 22 November alongside the opening of Nintendo and Pokemon Centers at Shibuya.

PlayStation awards are at 3 December. Last year Sony revealed PS4 December deals at that date.

 

[z0m3le]

Then "most people" don't understand on what is based the Switch success.
Let's make an extreme and absurd example:
think for an instant what would have happen if Nintendo had introduced in September 2009 a new version of the Wii, called Wii Lite, priced at $100 less than the OG model which had the exact same features of the OG model except for one: the control pad included was Wii Classic Controller Pro and wiimotes were incompatible with it.
All the back catalogue of Wii games would be patched to be playable with the Wii Classic Controller Pro.
Would the Wii Lite have cannibalized the OG Wii sales?


I dispute the bold statement.
Since when is Japan known as a market that prefer handheld consoles over home consoles?
The turning point was with DS and PSP.
But what was the factor that lead to it?
In my view there were multiple factors like japanese publishers inability to match the production budgets and competitiveness of big western publishers with games for PS3/XB360 and therefore sheltering into the lower budget handheld consoles and DS attracting a more broad audience (which would later be served by smartphone gaming).
Another important factor was that the mobility provided by handheld consoles were better suited to how the japanese living style were evolving.
This is the point.
A console that better adapt to modern lifestyle and let you play console games whenever you have a bit of free time and as you want is the whole mission of Switch, a mission better served by the Switch that can switch instead of the "switch-less" Lite.
Sure the Lite is $100 cheaper but Nintendo made very obvious that with Lite you'll get the lesser deal.
This lesser deal may be acceptable under certain conditions but won't be a replacement for the OG Switch.


Because I regard value proposition higher than price and I believe that the purpose Switch try to tackle has tremendous value (which is why I thought Switch would have been a smashing hit in the first place).

If you think that a simple jump in resolution (PS4 Slim -> PS4 Pro) or a visual trickery (3DS -> 2DS) have the same appeal as the concept of a console that adapt to your lifestyle (NSW -> Lite) then I see why you were so surprised.

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Yeah congratulations on not being surprised that lite is selling to a whole new audience. I'm surprised that there doesn't seem to be any overlap, that a Switch lite is so compelling to sell to its own market. I never thought that the Switch would lose its appeal with the introduction of a cheaper model that doesn't actually switch, but I did expect 20 to 30% overlap.

What does that mean? Well if Switch is selling 50k units before the lite was introduced, it means that I expected that number to drop to 35k or 40k and for lite to pick up those 15k or 10k of missing sales and maybe sell an additional 15k, increasing Switch sales weekly overall.

As for Japan's love for home consoles dying, I'd say PS2's ability to play DVDs helped hide the fact that it was happening, GBA at the time was a monster, and would have had much higher numbers if DS hadn't launched in its lifespan.

I still see Japan using the Switch original mostly in portable mode, it's the premium version of the Switch handheld too, with a bigger screen and better battery life. So I figured it would maintain it's stronger sales in the portable focused country of Japan, I just thought that we'd see a portion of the weekly Switch sales move to Lite. Growing an entirely separate market is different than being a less desirable product too, so it isn't apparent that it was going to happen this way.

 

[Celine]

GBA wasn't a monster.
Look at GBA total software sales in Japan then compare them to PS2.

DS was a monster and it was in that gen that happened the passing of the torch.

 

[MysticGon]

Third year in Switch lifespan and this is the list of third-party games that have sold more than 200K at retail per Famitsu:

Minecraft (Microsoft Game Studios) - 987.202
Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age - Definitive Edition (Square Enix) - 421.548
Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'N' Fun! (Bandai Namco Games) - 367.087
Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate (Capcom) - 285.310
Yo-kai Watch 4 (Level 5) - 279.438
Dragon Quest Builders 2 (Square Enix) - 275.146
Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai Namco Games) - 208.592

Barring Minecraft, it's quite similar to Wii (waiting for the next Momotaro Dentetsu).
There are differences between Wii and NSW though.
The former was aimed at casual gamers, the latter at lapsed gamers / gamers who find value in playing console games everywhere and whenever they can.
The former didn't have multiplatform development in mind, the latter does.
Both are similar in that it is Nintendo who bet on the platform while third-parties were cold on it.
You reap what you sow.

Click to shrink...

You forgot Octopath Traveler.

I'd bet Xenoverse 2 and Bomberman R are there now too.

 

[Chris1964]

Sony hardware sales in Japan. In 2019 they go for lowest sales since 1995 and beating 1995 isn't given.

Click to shrink...

Sony is indeed heading for lowest hardware sales in Japan ever. In 2020 they could go even below 1m.

 

[MysticGon]

Sony is indeed heading for lowest hardware sales in Japan ever. In 2020 they could go even below 1m.

Click to shrink...

Japan usually has a reputation of both consumer and developer supporting a console past by the sell-by date. This time around at least the consumers are ready to drop hardware it like a bad habit. Yet for software both groups still seem all in. They'll squeeze water from the stone until PlayStation becomes unviable.

 

[Oregano]

HW sales for the PS4 as irrelevant at this point, and even looking forward PS5 could decline massively and not really make a difference to Sony or third parties.

Japan is nothing but a breeding ground for software at this point.

 

[Chris1964]

Japan is surely an important market for small and mid-tier developers and most traditional Sony only supporters in the past of that scale have turned to Switch for a reason.

 

[Dark Cloud]

PS5 will probably launch later in Japan. It really isn't that important like it used to be for them.

 

[ACL]

To be more precise, it's PlayStation that has become more and more irrelevant in Japan.

 

[Celine]

Sony is indeed heading for lowest hardware sales in Japan ever. In 2020 they could go even below 1m.

Click to shrink...

There is indeed a concrete chance for CY2019 (IMO PS4 will end up around 1.20M).
For CY2020 will depend if PS5 will launch in Japan in the year or in 2021, Japan after all is a second tier market for Sony.

 

[Chris1964]

1,20m YTD for PS4 looks a very ambitious target without knowing how big deals they will have in December.

Even selling the same with 2018 at 8 remaining weeks, 2019 will end below 1995 (1.370.000).

 

[ZSaberLink]

Third year in Switch lifespan and this is the list of third-party games that have sold more than 200K at retail per Famitsu:

Minecraft (Microsoft Game Studios) - 987.202
Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age - Definitive Edition (Square Enix) - 421.548
Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'N' Fun! (Bandai Namco Games) - 367.087
Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate (Capcom) - 285.310
Yo-kai Watch 4 (Level 5) - 279.438
Dragon Quest Builders 2 (Square Enix) - 275.146
Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai Namco Games) - 208.592

Barring Minecraft, it's quite similar to Wii (waiting for the next Momotaro Dentetsu).
There are differences between Wii and NSW though.
The former was aimed at casual gamers, the latter at lapsed gamers / gamers who find value in playing console games everywhere and whenever they can.
The former didn't have multiplatform development in mind, the latter does.
Both are similar in that it is Nintendo who bet on the platform while third-parties were cold on it.
You reap what you sow.

Click to shrink...

Here are the sales of Wii 3rd party titles that sold over 200K according to Famitsu (data sourced from gamedatalibrary). This goes to show how bad Switch 3rd party support is and how much the market has declined.

12 Monster Hunter 3 582.548 1.077.273 Capcom 01/08/2009
20 Dragon Quest X: Mezameshi Itsutsu no Shuzoku Online [All Versions] 420.311 671.484 Square Enix 02/08/2012
21 Just Dance Wii 93.183 666.644 Nintendo 13/10/2011
23 Taiko no Tatsujin Wii 114.610 658.783 Bandai Namco 11/12/2008
25 Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Super Deluxe Edition 102.437 654.842 Bandai Namco 29/11/2012
26 Momotaro Dentetsu 2010: Sengoku Ishin no Hero Daishuugou! no Maki [All Versions] 43.548 652.253 Hudson 26/11/2009
31 Dragon Quest Swords: The Masked Queen and the Tower of Mirrors [All Versions] 302.066 495.228 Square Enix 12/07/2007
34 Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Dodoon to 2 Daime! 29.439 430.096 Bandai Namco 19/11/2009
36 Resident Evil: The Umbrella Chronicles [All Versions] 104.960 401.530 Capcom 15/11/2007
37 Dragon Quest 25th Anniversary: Famicom & Super Famicom Dragon Quest I + II + III 264.760 401.426 Square Enix 15/09/2011
38 Go Vacation 42.388 378.714 Bandai Namco 20/10/2011
42 Dragon Quest: Monster Battle Road Victory 146.185 339.199 Square Enix 15/07/2010
43 Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Definitive Edition 25.343 338.281 Bandai Namco 23/11/2011
47 Samurai Warriors 3 [All Versions] 126.646 313.323 Koei 03/12/2009
48 Deca Sports [All Versions] 66.790 296.057 Hudson 19/03/2008
49 One Piece: Unlimited Cruise 2 - Awakening of the Hero [All Versions] 47.166 283.405 Bandai Namco 26/02/2009
54 Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Minna de Party 3-Yome! 26.855 270.672 Bandai Namco 02/12/2010
55 Just Dance Wii 2 61.382 264.080 Nintendo 26/07/2012
56 Karaoke Joysound Wii 62.738 254.144 Hudson 18/12/2008
57 Resident Evil 4: Wii Edition [All Versions] 46.813 249.381 Capcom 31/05/2007
60 One Piece: Unlimited Cruise 1 - The Treasure Beneath the Waves [All Versions] 57.158 240.785 Bandai Namco 11/09/2008
62 Monster Hunter G 142.852 236.020 Capcom 23/04/2009
63 Tales of Symphonia: Dawn of the New World [All Versions] 151.138 230.268 Bandai Namco 26/06/2008
64 Resident Evil: The Darkside Chronicles [All Versions] 78.932 228.293 Capcom 14/01/2010
66 Tales of Graces [All Versions] 143.309 225.620 Bandai Namco 10/12/2009
68 Inazuma Eleven Strikers 73.323 221.912 Level 5 16/07/2011
70 Family Fishing 18.222 219.260 Bandai Namco 04/08/2011
74 Itadaki Street Wii 35.811 211.552 Square Enix 01/12/2011

 

[Kriegshand]

If Super Mario Maker on the Wii U could achieve ~250k in December 2015 I don't see how SMM2 could not sell 300k or more this December which would be enough to reach 1 million at retail. With digital SMM2 will be 100% over a million by December 31.

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MM2 was bundled with Wii U and is not with Switch. It was also the Wii U Christmas game. On Switch Pokemon is the Christmas blockbuster. I am not saying MM2 will not outsell this number. In fact i am hoping for big numbers but there are reasons.

 

[fiendcode]

Here are the sales of Wii 3rd party titles that sold over 200K according to Famitsu (data sourced from gamedatalibrary). This goes to show how bad Switch 3rd party support is and how much the market has declined.

12 Monster Hunter 3 582.548 1.077.273 Capcom 01/08/2009
20 Dragon Quest X: Mezameshi Itsutsu no Shuzoku Online [All Versions] 420.311 671.484 Square Enix 02/08/2012
21 Just Dance Wii 93.183 666.644 Nintendo 13/10/2011
23 Taiko no Tatsujin Wii 114.610 658.783 Bandai Namco 11/12/2008
25 Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Super Deluxe Edition 102.437 654.842 Bandai Namco 29/11/2012
26 Momotaro Dentetsu 2010: Sengoku Ishin no Hero Daishuugou! no Maki [All Versions] 43.548 652.253 Hudson 26/11/2009
31 Dragon Quest Swords: The Masked Queen and the Tower of Mirrors [All Versions] 302.066 495.228 Square Enix 12/07/2007
34 Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Dodoon to 2 Daime! 29.439 430.096 Bandai Namco 19/11/2009
36 Resident Evil: The Umbrella Chronicles [All Versions] 104.960 401.530 Capcom 15/11/2007
37 Dragon Quest 25th Anniversary: Famicom & Super Famicom Dragon Quest I + II + III 264.760 401.426 Square Enix 15/09/2011
38 Go Vacation 42.388 378.714 Bandai Namco 20/10/2011
42 Dragon Quest: Monster Battle Road Victory 146.185 339.199 Square Enix 15/07/2010
43 Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Definitive Edition 25.343 338.281 Bandai Namco 23/11/2011
47 Samurai Warriors 3 [All Versions] 126.646 313.323 Koei 03/12/2009
48 Deca Sports [All Versions] 66.790 296.057 Hudson 19/03/2008
49 One Piece: Unlimited Cruise 2 - Awakening of the Hero [All Versions] 47.166 283.405 Bandai Namco 26/02/2009
54 Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Minna de Party 3-Yome! 26.855 270.672 Bandai Namco 02/12/2010
55 Just Dance Wii 2 61.382 264.080 Nintendo 26/07/2012
56 Karaoke Joysound Wii 62.738 254.144 Hudson 18/12/2008
57 Resident Evil 4: Wii Edition [All Versions] 46.813 249.381 Capcom 31/05/2007
60 One Piece: Unlimited Cruise 1 - The Treasure Beneath the Waves [All Versions] 57.158 240.785 Bandai Namco 11/09/2008
62 Monster Hunter G 142.852 236.020 Capcom 23/04/2009
63 Tales of Symphonia: Dawn of the New World [All Versions] 151.138 230.268 Bandai Namco 26/06/2008
64 Resident Evil: The Darkside Chronicles [All Versions] 78.932 228.293 Capcom 14/01/2010
66 Tales of Graces [All Versions] 143.309 225.620 Bandai Namco 10/12/2009
68 Inazuma Eleven Strikers 73.323 221.912 Level 5 16/07/2011
70 Family Fishing 18.222 219.260 Bandai Namco 04/08/2011
74 Itadaki Street Wii 35.811 211.552 Square Enix 01/12/2011

Click to shrink...

Yeah but that's 6+ years worth of games. Align it to stuff released within Switch's ~2.7 years and you get:

23 Taiko no Tatsujin Wii 114.610 658.783 Bandai Namco 11/12/2008
31 Dragon Quest Swords: The Masked Queen and the Tower of Mirrors [All Versions] 302.066 495.228 Square Enix 12/07/2007
36 Resident Evil: The Umbrella Chronicles [All Versions] 104.960 401.530 Capcom 15/11/2007
48 Deca Sports [All Versions] 66.790 296.057 Hudson 19/03/2008
49 One Piece: Unlimited Cruise 2 - Awakening of the Hero [All Versions] 47.166 283.405 Bandai Namco 26/02/2009
56 Karaoke Joysound Wii 62.738 254.144 Hudson 18/12/2008
57 Resident Evil 4: Wii Edition [All Versions] 46.813 249.381 Capcom 31/05/2007
60 One Piece: Unlimited Cruise 1 - The Treasure Beneath the Waves [All Versions] 57.158 240.785 Bandai Namco 11/09/2008
62 Monster Hunter G 142.852 236.020 Capcom 23/04/2009
63 Tales of Symphonia: Dawn of the New World [All Versions] 151.138 230.268 Bandai Namco 26/06/2008

 

[Chris1964]

Switch will have outsold Wii hardware by next March and Wii software by next December. It's not exactly a system that gives Switch competition.

 

[Pokémon]

MM2 was bundled with Wii U and is not with Switch. It was also the Wii U Christmas game. On Switch Pokemon ist the Christmas blockbuster. I am not saying MM2 will not outsell this number. In fact i am hoping for big numbers but there are reasons.

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Interesting, I didn't know Mario Maker was bundled with the Wii U so thanks for the explanation. Still I am confident that Mario Maker 2 should at least match these numbers as it's still the Wii U we are talking about.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Switch will have outsold Wii hardware by next March and Wii software by next December. It's not exactly a system that gives Switch competition.

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Yup, this was kind of my point. Given Switch is selling much better and there's much less competition in terms of dedicated hardware (it's the best selling dedicated platform in JP currently), the 3rd party comparison doesn't look great for Switch.

 

[Oregano]

The small publishers who are now looking at Switch too aren't exactly flourishing and as that unnamed Sony exec said to WSJ it's not like they can ignore the PS5. All of those publishers still prioritise PlayStation.

Yeah but that's 6+ years worth of games. Align it to stuff released within Switch's ~2.7 years and you get:

23 Taiko no Tatsujin Wii 114.610 658.783 Bandai Namco 11/12/2008
31 Dragon Quest Swords: The Masked Queen and the Tower of Mirrors [All Versions] 302.066 495.228 Square Enix 12/07/2007
36 Resident Evil: The Umbrella Chronicles [All Versions] 104.960 401.530 Capcom 15/11/2007
48 Deca Sports [All Versions] 66.790 296.057 Hudson 19/03/2008
49 One Piece: Unlimited Cruise 2 - Awakening of the Hero [All Versions] 47.166 283.405 Bandai Namco 26/02/2009
56 Karaoke Joysound Wii 62.738 254.144 Hudson 18/12/2008
57 Resident Evil 4: Wii Edition [All Versions] 46.813 249.381 Capcom 31/05/2007
60 One Piece: Unlimited Cruise 1 - The Treasure Beneath the Waves [All Versions] 57.158 240.785 Bandai Namco 11/09/2008
62 Monster Hunter G 142.852 236.020 Capcom 23/04/2009
63 Tales of Symphonia: Dawn of the New World [All Versions] 151.138 230.268 Bandai Namco 26/06/2008

Click to shrink...

Now post the 3DS equivalent, just so I can take another potshot at Bandai Namco deciding a Ganbarion One Piece game wasn't a good fit for Switch.

 

[Chris1964]

Yup, this was kind of my point. Given Switch is selling much better and there's much less competition in terms of dedicated hardware (it's the best selling dedicated platform in JP currently), the 3rd party comparison doesn't look great for Switch.

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For high budget games it doesn't. Switch losing all the third party big sellers from 3DS era and still selling similar software shows that except Nintendo smaller publishers that were absent before have found success at the system.

 

[ACL]

The more important thing is that many of these former Sony exclusive developers can't ignore Nintendo going forward. That's more than enough to strengthen Nintendos position in Japan even more.

 

[RPGamer2]

The more important thing is that many of these former Sony exclusive developers can't ignore Nintendo going forward. That's more than enough to strengthen Nintendos position in Japan even more.

Click to shrink...

Yes they can. Were you not around for the GBA, DS, Wii and 3DS and currently Switch?

 

[Deleted member 51691]

The more important thing is that many of these former Sony exclusive developers can't ignore Nintendo going forward. That's more than enough to strengthen Nintendos position in Japan even more.

Click to shrink...

Falcom can and absolutely will lol

 

[Chris1964]

Falcom can and absolutely will lol

Click to shrink...

Former Sony exclusive, not eternal.

 

[Kriegshand]

The small publishers who are now looking at Switch too aren't exactly flourishing and as that unnamed Sony exec said to WSJ it's not like they can ignore the PS5. All of those publishers still prioritise PlayStation.

Click to shrink...

There is always the option to develop for Switch and upport to PS5. For AAA titles aimed at the west this makes obviously no sense. But smaller games could greatly benefit from such a strategy.

Keep in mind Switch is also selling well in the west. So not only japanese sales would benefit from such a strategy.

 

[ACL]

The situation is quite different this time around, PlayStation is heading towards its worst years ever in Japan.

 

[Man God]

Former Sony exclusive, not eternal.

Click to shrink...

Things change, they clung onto the dying Japanese PC scene longer than anyone else before going to PSP.

 

[fiendcode]

Yes they can. Were you not around for the GBA, DS, Wii and 3DS and currently Switch?

Click to shrink...

Those systems still had PS2, PSP and later the PS ecosystem three prong approach (PS3/Vita/PS4) that 3rd parties could support instead. 20m+ userbases that bought their games but that's gone away now.

 

[Chris1964]

Somehow comgnet stores had stock for Ring Fit and more that previous week. Tsuataya and GEO will clear what happened at weekend with restocks natiowide.

 

[MysticGon]

Middleware and similar controller inputs basically make any mid-tier exclusive come under suspicion this late in the game.

But it's not hard to imagine the circumstances that led to that decision.

 

[Avada Kedavra]

I hope people realize that Nintendo will also have their worst year ever when the Switch will be in its 6th year on the market. I doubt there will be as much doom then though.

 

[Oregano]

There is always the option to develop for Switch and upport to PS5. For AAA titles aimed at the west this makes obviously no sense. But smaller games could greatly benefit from such a strategy.

Keep in mind Switch is also selling well in the west. So not only japanese sales would benefit from such a strategy.

Click to shrink...

Depending on the publisher(ie. BN) the bar for what qualifies as aimed at the west varies a lot, and has shifted significantly from even 3 years ago.

Outside of that I'd say even now it's more common for games to be developed with PS4 as a base and downported than developed with Switch as the priority.

 

[MadsG]

Sony is indeed heading for lowest hardware sales in Japan ever. In 2020 they could go even below 1m.

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I just wanted to appreciate you very informative graph (so is your Nintendo graph from the same thread! ). It really shows the decline from PS1/2 to PS3/4 in their home conole market and PSP to PSV in their portable market. Sony needs to change the appeal of PS5 if they want to revert the forbedres trajectory.
Would you maybe update the graphs with 2019 nummers when time comes (also could you please keep the same Y-axis for both Nintendo and Sony? - i think it makes it easier to visualize yearly differences).

Also thank you for your insights in these threads.

(First post in these threads btw, but i have been lurking the charts since 2004 launches)

 

[ACL]

I hope people realize that Nintendo will also have their worst year ever when the Switch will be in its 6th year on the market. I doubt there will be as much doom then though.

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It's not like PS5s 1st and 2nd year will change the outlook by a lot in Japan.

 

[Sandfox]

I hope people realize that Nintendo will also have their worst year ever when the Switch will be in its 6th year on the market. I doubt there will be as much doom then though.

Click to shrink...

Will they?

Also the key difference is that Nintendo will be releasing their new platform with Nintendo games, while there are more questions about Sony and Japan.

 

[Avada Kedavra]

Will they?

Also the key difference is that Nintendo will be releasing their new platform with Nintendo games, while there are more questions about Sony and Japan.

Click to shrink...

I mean unless Switch 2 comes out in 2021?
Even so both Sony and Nintendo went from 2 hardware to 1. That will obviously affect total hardware sales per yer.

 

[Oregano]

In the Switch's 6th year there's a good chance Nintendo will have a successor on the market, instead of a year away.

I can easily that year being higher than 2016.

 

[Chris1964]

I just wanted to appreciate you very informative graph (so is your Nintendo graph from the same thread! ). It really shows the decline from PS1/2 to PS3/4 in their home conole market and PSP to PSV in their portable market. Would you maybe update the graphs with 2019 nummers when time comes?

(First post in these threads btw, but i have been lurking the charts since 2004 launches)

Click to shrink...

Nintendo should exceed 4,5m this year

Nintendo hardware sales in Japan. Updated Famitsu data exist from 2001 and later.

Click to shrink...

 

[Encephalon]

Well, I'm definitely no authority since I haven't played them (if it's not a Falcom ARPG, I'm not really that interested) but I was under the impression that the general sentiment was that quality wise the Cold Steel series is a hefty drop from the Sky trilogy and Crossbell duo.

I guess it depends on what you favor in a JRPG but I have a tough time really putting even the Sky trilogy (which I have played 2/3 of) up there with Dragon Quest, Xenoblade, SMT, etc. Falcom seems a lot more competitive in the ARPG space but that's also a smaller pool of stuff and nothing really super well regarded except Platinum titles and Zelda now.

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You're not wrong.

 

[Lelouch0612]

COMG! preorders chart, Week 45 2019 :

Each point represent one preorder at this retailer. It is a relatively small retailer located in one region so be careful when you extrapolate, especially regarding Otaku games (overrepresented) and family games (underrepresented).

1. Pokémon Sword - 222 pts (+48 pts)
2. Pokémon Sword and Shield Double Pack - 168 pts (+14 pts)
3. Pokémon Shield - 129 pts (+29 pts)
4. Final Fantasy VII Remake - 104 pts (+2 pts)
5. Sakura Wars Special Edition - 90 pts (+7 pts)
6. Sakura Wars - 33 pts (+1 pt)
7. SD Gundam G Generations Collector Edition (PS4) - 33 pts (+5 pts)
8. SD Gundam G Generations Collector Edition (NSW) - 24 pts (+3 pts)
9. SD Gundam G Generations (PS4) - 20 pts (+5 pt)
10. Persona 5 Scramble Special Edition (PS4) - 17 pts (+0 pt)
11. Yakuza 7 - 15 pts (+3 pts)
12 Sentinels : Aegis Rim - 15 pts (+2 pts)
13 Sentinels : Aegis Rim Special Edition - 14 pts (+3 pts)
14. The Last of Us Part II - 10 pts (NE)
15. Persona 5 Scramble Special Edition (NSW) - 9 pts (+1 pt)
16. SD Gundam G Generations (NSW) - 9 pts (+ 1pt)
17. Warriors Orochi 4 Ultimate (PS4) - 8 pts (+ 1pt)
18. Atelier Trilogy (NSW) - 8 pts (NE)
19. Is It Wrong to Try to Pick Up Girls in a Dungeon? (PS4) - 7 pts (NE)
20. Trials of Mana (PS4) - 6 pts (NE)

 

[schuelma]

Yup, this was kind of my point. Given Switch is selling much better and there's much less competition in terms of dedicated hardware (it's the best selling dedicated platform in JP currently), the 3rd party comparison doesn't look great for Switch.

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Another metric is PS4, and Switch is pretty similar at this point in time in terms of 200K sellers. I generally agree the high level support is definitely not amazing. But I think that's partly a function of declining 3rd party selling power across the board.

 

[Celine]

1,20m YTD for PS4 looks a very ambitious target without knowing how big deals they will have in December.

Even selling the same with 2018 at 8 remaining weeks, 2019 will end below 1995 (1.370.000).

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My guess was based on a estimate I made a month ago by judging what percentage of decline and growth PS4 and NSW would face for the full year, it wasn't meant to be precise (that's why I've written "around").

There is a concrete chance that for the first time ever (since SFC days at least) a single console manufacturer will have around 80% of the yearly HW sales.

Here are the sales of Wii 3rd party titles that sold over 200K according to Famitsu (data sourced from gamedatalibrary). This goes to show how bad Switch 3rd party support is and how much the market has declined.

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It's particularly fascinating because the kind of games are more or less the same:
Dragon Quest spinoff, mainline DQ game with lower sales due to different nature (MMORPG in DQX case, definitive edition in DQXIS case), Taiko, Bamco new IP casual games (Fishing Family on Wii, Fishing Spirits on NSW), a re-edition of a past Monster Hunter, in the near future Momotaro Dentetsu...

It all sounds so conservative and yet the situation is totally different between Wii and NSW.

 

[Chris1964]

Another metric is PS4, and Switch is pretty similar at this point in time in terms of 200K sellers. I generally agree the high level support is definitely not amazing. But I think that's partly a function of declining 3rd party selling power across the board.

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PS4 isn't the metric for success in Japan.

 

[Man God]

PS4 software situation is dire after March and the hardware has already slowed down far sooner than other Sony consoles.

 

[schuelma]

PS4 isn't the metric for success in Japan.

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True, but I'd say it's just as, if not more a valid comparison than looking at Wii support.

 

[Chris1964]

True, but I'd say it's just as, if not more a valid comparison than looking at Wii support.

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Support and sales are two different things. PS4 was treated as the one and only future at some point. It's high end support is leagues above Switch.

 

[Man God]

Support and sales are two different things. PS4 was treated as the one and only future at some point. It's high end support is leagues above Switch.

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It's the most supported on the high end system since the SNES I'd argue.

 

[Chris1964]

It's the most supported on the high end system since the SNES I'd argue.

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PS and PS2 existed.