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shinken

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,917
PS4 vs PS3
2019-11-06-22-15-12.jpg

Code:
---------------------------------------------------------------
|    |    PlayStation 3   |    PlayStation 4   |  Difference  |
|    |    (2006/11/11)    |    (2014/02/22)    |              |
|----|---------|----------|---------|----------|--------------|
|Week|  Weekly |    LTD   |  Weekly |    LTD   |   PS4 - PS3  |
|----|---------|----------|---------|----------|--------------|
| 296|   14.297| 8.143.309|    7.362| 8.451.601|       308.292|
| 297|   15.218| 8.158.527|    7.422| 8.459.023|       300.496|
| 298|   16.232| 8.174.759|    8.338| 8.467.361|       292.602|
| 299|   18.160| 8.192.919|         |          |              |
| 300|   14.544| 8.207.463|         |          |              |
| 301|   13.740| 8.221.203|         |          |              |
| 302|   19.202| 8.240.405|         |          |              |
| 303|   12.243| 8.252.648|         |          |              |
| 304|   12.846| 8.265.494|         |          |              |
| 305|   12.210| 8.277.704|         |          |              |
|----|---------|----------|---------|----------|--------------|

Minecraft Switch vs Minecraft Vita Edition
PS3 ended with 10.5m sales in Japan. PS4 sales most likely has already saturated in Japan. But i'm surprised PS4 is ahead of the PS3. There is no way the PS4 will catch the PS3, right? It will have to sell 1m in 2020 and another million in 2021. No way that's happening.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
PS5 will be likely very expensive. Sony probably don't want to make the price gap between PS4 and PS5 extremely high. Perhaps they even want to continue PS4 for a few years as low entry model until PS5 prices comes down.
I agree and I wonder how they are going to manage the three SKUs by then (PS4 Slim, PS4 Pro and PS5).
 

DarkDetective

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,906
The Netherlands
Good debut for Persona 5 Royal.

Luigi is a bit lower than expected, but I expect good legs thanks to positive word of mouth and the general sales boost in November.

Ring Fit Adventure keeps delivering. Only a 20% drop in its third week is insane. This game will be big during the holiday weeks.

Mario & Sonic has a disappointing debut imo. Of course this game leans on its legs; these games have never been front-loaded, but this debut is much worse than previous installments. And especially with the first impressions of reviewers and players, and the fact that the Olympics are in Japan this year in mind, I think Sega can blame itself for results this low.

A sales boost of almost 50k units for the Switch Lite thanks to the Pokémon bundle. That's nice. Good to see that the flagship model stays above 50k as well. Hopefully sales can stay this high the coming weeks.

Persona 5 Royal did not give a significant boost to PS4 sales, and considering the holiday line-up for the system, I'm afraid the Switch will have to carry the market all by itself this holiday season.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
05./00. [NSW] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 <SPT> (Sega) {2019.11.01} (¥5.990) - 19.438 / NEW

Terrible debut. Second worst in history, sandwiched between two WiiU games. Not the debut one would expect for a successful game, even if long term sales will put in multiple times the FW sales. It should be one of the poorer selling games in the franchise, which is really bad considering it represents the Tokyo Olympics. Only hope for it now is that the Olympics are not being felt by the Japanese and that the sales will pick up by a remarkably larger amount compared even to its leggy predecessors.
 

Phamit

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,943
I guess OG Switch is still an attractive package because of the improved battery life and the dock.
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
Persona 5 Royal did not give a significant boost to PS4 sales, and considering the holiday line-up for the system, I'm afraid the Switch will have to carry the market all by itself this holiday season.

It's a good thing third parties finally got up to speed and aren't leaving the holiday season empty for a third year in a row.🤭
 

Aleh

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,296
Was there a game bundled with the Lite model?
I find it strange that we see 100K HW but none of the evergreens got an increase and Luigi Mansiom is average.
Not sure if the lite comes with SWSH pre installed (but I think it doesn't) but the game wouldn't be playable until the game releases anyways
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
Mario & Sonic debut is definitely below expectations but, again, this is a game that should keep selling for at least a year. It will have no issues in clearing at least 300k units.
 

Dwebble

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,626
Really interested to see where Ring Fit Adventure ends up, and what the long-term legs are like.

It's been a phenomenon for the first few weeks, both in Japan and (from what we know) worldwide- God only knows how far it can go if they can meet demand.
Was there a game bundled with the Lite model?
I find it strange that we see 100K HW but none of the evergreens got an increase and Luigi Mansiom is average.
We've seen recent examples of hardware bumps resulting in evergreen software bumps a week or two afterwards, as people buy the hardware for a specific title first and foremost before dipping into the evergreens later.

In this particular case, many of these Lites will have been initially bought almost exclusively for Pokémon next week.
 

ZSaberLink

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,674
05./00. [NSW] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 <SPT> (Sega) {2019.11.01} (¥5.990) - 19.438 / NEW

Terrible debut. Second worst in history, sandwiched between two WiiU games. Not the debut one would expect for a successful game, even if long term sales will put in multiple times the FW sales. It should be one of the poorer selling games in the franchise, which is really bad considering it represents the Tokyo Olympics. Only hope for it now is that the Olympics are not being felt by the Japanese and that the sales will pick up by a remarkably larger amount compared even to its leggy predecessors.
Agreed that the sales are surprisingly low. I guess the normal Olympics game may end up being the main one sales wise?

Also can someone repost the voucher estimates based on Nintendo shipments?
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Mario & Sonic debut is definitely below expectations but, again, this is a game that should keep selling for at least a year. It will have no issues in clearing at least 300k units.
Code:
WII    Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games    67.054    594.157    Nintendo    22/11/2007
NDS    Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games    90.793    383.558    Nintendo    17/01/2008
3DS    Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games    44.024    268.480    Nintendo    18/02/2016
NDS    Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games    25.663    254.341    Nintendo    19/11/2009
3DS    Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games    46.357    236.480    Nintendo    01/03/2012
WII    Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games    24.330    221.542    Nintendo    08/12/2011
WII    Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games    24.476    194.916    Nintendo    05/11/2009
WIU    Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games    21.041    124.784    Nintendo    23/06/2016
WIU    Mario & Sonic at the Sochi 2014 Olympic Winter Games    5.149    51.341    Nintendo    05/12/2013
A 300k sales amount would be a remarkable FW multiplier at 15x. As you can see, the most the franchise has done so far is 10x, and the systems listed are no slouches when it comes to legs, either. 300k would be an okay result, if a bit disappointing that the Tokyo Olympics didn't make this game big. To be big, it needs to have massively improved legs compared to its predecessors.
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,925
DQXI S:
2nd week: -81%
3rd week: -56%
4th week: -38%
5th week: -30%
6th week: -23%

1st week divided by 6th week = 35.46

DQXI PS4:
2nd week: -82%
3rd week: -57%
4th week: -15%
5th week: -64%
6th week: -27%

1st week divided by 6th week = 59.26

DQXI 3DS:
2nd week: -77%
3rd week: -55%
4th week: -20%
5th week: -67%
6th week: -1%

1st week divided by 6th week = 36.86

Lower is better for the division of 1st by 6th week. DQXI is legging negligibly better than the 3DS sku, and noticeably better than the PS4 sku in terms of relative sales.
Woah, thanks for the in depth answer!

I agree and I wonder how they are going to manage the three SKUs by then (PS4 Slim, PS4 Pro and PS5).
I'm expecting the Pro to get phased out first, they can keep the Slim as a low cost option for casuals and the mainstream alongside PS5. I'm talking more globally but Japan will follow the same plan.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Agreed that the sales are surprisingly low. I guess the normal Olympics game may end up being the main one sales wise?

Also can someone repost the voucher estimates based on Nintendo shipments?
here you go
Fire Emblem 40%+, Link's Awakening 27%-38%. Astral Chain should be similar to FETH. SMM2 srems more along the lines of 20% IIRC
Determinations here:
Edit: Messed up the TLOZ:LA shipment lol, thought it was 335k instead of 350k (doesn't make sense, I know). Fixed the numbers now.

TLOZ: LA sold 141k in its first week, which was a 60%-80% sell-through. The week after (end of the fiscal quarter), it sold 187k, again with the 60-80. There are several scenarios:

Firstly, assume there was no shipment sent yet as of September 30th. In this scenario, the worst case assumption, that of 60% sell-through, gives a shipment of 235k, so 100k digital. Adding for the second week, sell-through would be just below 80% (79.6%), so that doesn't violate the second week's bracket. However, the weeks after the second week kept the 60-80 percentage until week 43 (this week), where an 80-100 sell-through appears. In that scenario, 80% corresponds to 224k, so total shipment in retail stores at that point are at most 280k.

Therefore, we have an upper bound of 115k digital sales for TLOZ: LA, and a lower bound of 70k. However, take note of this: the upper bound assumes that no extra shipments were under way - but not yet present at retail - since the first week shipment. On the other hand, the lower bound assumes that all the extra shipments to retail as of week 43 have happened before September 30th. I think a reasonable number would be somewhere in the middle, for example 95k.

Assuming that a 95k is good enough as an estimate, we have a 34% digital share for TLOZ: LA (95k/(95k+187k) = 0.34).

Upper bound digital share: 115k/(115k+187k) = 0.38 =38% digital share.
Lower bound digital share: 70k/(70k+187k) = 0.27 = 27% digital share.
FETH shipped 480k last quarter. Retail sell-through is 250k and sell-through percentage were high since the start. We're looking at 40%+ digital share for FETH
 

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,664
WA, australia
fantastic for P5R and really good switch numbers. I actually expected them to print more of the pokemon lite versions, but they for sure sold whatever they made regardless. the real story is OG switch being able to pump out 55k completely unbothered by the monstrous lite sales this week.

as we head into the holidays, the lite and ring fit will both be interesting products to watch. The Lite should start selling more than the OG in peak December weeks, as it is fundamentally more appealing to kids and the gift-giving crowd with its lower price. ring fit on the other hand will be a major driver for the OG switch, and could really see some high numbers these holidays, given Nintendo actually stocks it adequately.

And that's not to mention watching the legs of games like Pokemon, LM3, SMM2, Mario & Sonic.... this Q3 is proving to be much more interesting to follow than last years for switch.
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,925
December's looking rough in general for new releases. Biggest games are what, Sakura Wars, Yokai Watch 4++, WO4U and Brain Training?
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Why are you surprised?
I'd say the surprising part isn't that they cater to different audiences per se, but more the fact that these different markets are completely complementary (at least so far). Like, one might have expected Switch OG sales to take a 10% hit with a 1:2 ratio between OG and Lite applying, but no, OG Switch takes no hit whatsoever despite the 1:2 ratio holding for typical weeks.
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Really happy to see Ring Fit doing well. Any word on US sales yet?

I don't think we've seen any estimates yet for numbers but going by stock trackers and anecdotes there was a period of 1-2 weeks where it was very hard to find in the US. So at the very least we can be confident it beat early retailer expectations.
 

Dwebble

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,626
05./00. [NSW] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 <SPT> (Sega) {2019.11.01} (¥5.990) - 19.438 / NEW

Terrible debut. Second worst in history, sandwiched between two WiiU games. Not the debut one would expect for a successful game, even if long term sales will put in multiple times the FW sales. It should be one of the poorer selling games in the franchise, which is really bad considering it represents the Tokyo Olympics. Only hope for it now is that the Olympics are not being felt by the Japanese and that the sales will pick up by a remarkably larger amount compared even to its leggy predecessors.
Remind me- is Mario & Sonic covered by the vouchers at all?
 

Deleted member 9584

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
7,132
If technically possible (i'm not an expert!) can't they phase out the ps4 slim, launch a ps4 pro slim to justify keeping the price at the same level? Is that a possibility?
Would it really be worth the trouble just to save sales in your weakest market when the new system is about to get the focus?

I think they will dump the Pro and stick with a cheap slim and a PS5. What's the point of getting a Pro when a PS5 exists? You either go cheap or go new and more technically advanced; no room for a middle ground in my opinion.
 

dean_rcg

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,270
05./00. [NSW] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 <SPT> (Sega) {2019.11.01} (¥5.990) - 19.438 / NEW

Terrible debut. Second worst in history, sandwiched between two WiiU games. Not the debut one would expect for a successful game, even if long term sales will put in multiple times the FW sales. It should be one of the poorer selling games in the franchise, which is really bad considering it represents the Tokyo Olympics. Only hope for it now is that the Olympics are not being felt by the Japanese and that the sales will pick up by a remarkably larger amount compared even to its leggy predecessors.

do they normally release them so far before the olmypics start?
 

Doogdogg

Member
Oct 27, 2017
753
Smash Ultimate is nearly 1 year old and still in the top 10. I think it only left the top 10 a few weeks ago for the first time with many new releases, and the vouchers effect.
 

Naga

Alt account
Banned
Aug 29, 2019
7,850
Dat HW bump. Ring Fit still having fantastic legs.
Nice debut for Luigi and P5R.
 

Bonejack

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,654
Never thought that the little nut buster game, erm sorry, Ring Fit Adventure, would be such a steady seller.

But seriously, beware of the Ab Guard.