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schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
Re: MH World western sales. I would love for one real indicator/metric besides "all my friends on resetera are going to buy it" that World is primed to break out in the West. And by break out I mean at least double its previous Western sales.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,394
Xenoverse 2 hasn't sold 4 million in the west yet unless Black Friday gave it a huge push.

I'm not really expecting much from GTS, but who knows.

Souls is a maybe. I don't think we have the numbers.

The latest Naruto is at 3m ww combined with the Boruto stuff and the franchise is done.

Based on how KH2 sold that's actually questionable.

Tekken 7 is nowhere close to hitting 4 million in the west and I don't think it ever will.

yeah a few of those raised my eyebrow
 

Boiled Goose

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
9,999
Switch would be MHW's biggest platform yet the game is not even on Switch. Sometimes Capcom makes unfortunate decisions.


Dark Souls. Some similarities:
1. hard. This is obvious
2. multiplayer. Both games are playable as singleplayer, but the best way to play is multiplayer
3. aesthetic. Even though both are Japanese games, they have a rather grounded art style which appeals to a bigger audience in the west.
4. light on story. Both are extremely gameplay focused.

I disagree with all points except 1.
Both are hard, though in different ways. Souls games have a clear central narrative to experience and a clear sense of progression. Mh is almost entirely about mastery being progress.
2. Multiplayer much more important for mh. Hence it's popularity on local portable play.
3. Disagree. MH is much more overtly Japanese. In both gameplay and artstyle. Many consider ds a western style game.
4. Lore and narrative much more important for ds.

We also haven't mentioned another point. MH has already been released on pc. If gameplay is what's gonna drive sales, Capcom would have certainly seen more success on the platform.
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,500
FF, KH, DBZ, maybe Naruto, maybe Tekken, RE, MGS, GT, Souls.

Yeah this is about what I figured. The most recent KH, Tekken and DBZ games haven't reached 4m in the West I believe though. It's a pretty exclusive list.

RE7 has sold 4.1 and might have a LTD of 6 million. What? PUBG has reached 20 million or so sales. You clearly don't know what you are talking about.

I can only assume you meant to quote someone else here because I actually dont know what you're talking about here.
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878

Stealth

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
567
Monster Hunter World PS4 edition on Amazon is currently #260 on on the US games chart.......If people are preordering this game in the West, it is certainly not through Amazon.

On the Amazon Japan charts it is doing much better, but we really have not seen any indication that its going to sell 2, 3 or even 4 million in the West.
 

Deleted member 5535

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,656
Xenoblade is a prestige series. It exist to be the game that is revered by it fan. There will probably always be a game either from or like the series. Both X and 2 won't exist if this wasn't true. Xenoblade 2 is Nintendo seeing how far it can go in sales. Its success will inform how this series will be positioned in the future.

There also that Nintendo thing. If someone at Nintendo pushes for something hard enough it will exist. Proof: Pikmin and for the opposite: F-zero. Pikmin 3 exist because of Miyamoto, F-Zero doesn't because Nintendo can't find a developer. Metroid is another, SR need a push both in and out of Nintendo. So in a funny twist, the reason Metroid didn't have a game for awhile was because of Other M. Just not because of sales, it was because of the fear that Sakamoto(one of the only producers that want to make a Metroid game) would cause intense backlash. They had kept him away.

I doubt Nintendo won't let Monolithsoft make another Xenoblade if this doesn't make 1m. But they would have to desire to make it.

I agree with this reasoning in most parts but the part with Sakamoto is a bit confusing. If they had fear of a backlash with Sakamoto being a producer for Metroid, then why he was the producer of Samus Returns?
 

horuhe

Member
Oct 25, 2017
89
京都市
Rakuten Books Sales Ranking Week 47, 2017 (Nov 20 - Nov 26)

01./00. (003./000.) [3DS] Pokémon Ultra Sun <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
02./03. (004./004.) [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey <ACT> (Nintendo)
03./02. (005./002.) [3DS] Pokémon Ultra Moon <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
04./07. (012./014.) [3DS] Pokemon Ultra Sun / Ultra Moon Dual Pack <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
05./04. (013./008.) [NSW] Splatoon 2 <ACT> (Nintendo)
06./00. (015./000.) [PS4] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva Future Tone DX (Memorial Pack) <ACT> (Sega)
07./06. (022./013.) [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo)
08./05. (031./011.) [PS4] Call of Duty: World War II <ACT> (Sony Interactive)
09./10. (032./023.) [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <ADV> (Nintendo)
10./00. (039./000.) [3DS] Beyblade Burst: God <RPG> (FuRyu)
11./00. (053./000.) [PS4] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva Future Tone DX <ACT> (Sega)
12./00. (061./000.) [PS4] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 - Deluxe Edition <FTG> (Bandai Namco)
13./08. (084./018.) [PS4] Star Wars: Battlefront II (Deluxe Edition) <ACT> (Electronic Arts)
14./09. (090./020.) [PS4] Star Wars: Battlefront II <ACT> (Electronic Arts)
15./13. (095./037.) [PS4] Assasin's Creed: Origins <ACT> (Ubisoft)
16./11. (103./024.) [NSW] Dragon Quest X: 5000 Year Journey to a Faraway Hometown <RPG> (Square Enix)
17./19. (107./086.) [NSW] Pokkén Tournament DX <FTG> (Pokémon Co.)
18./17. (112./052.) [PS4] ARK: Survival Evolved <ACT> (Spike Chunsoft)
19./21. (119./105.) [NSW] 1-2-Switch <ETC> (Nintendo)
20./00. (144./000.) [PS4] Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus <ACT> (Bethesda)

Rakuten Books Pre-Orders Ranking Week 47, 2017 (Nov 20 - Nov 26)

01./01. (007./004.) [PS4] Monster Hunter: World <ACT> (Capcom)
02./02. (009./009.) [3DS] Yo-kai Watch Busters 2: Sword / Magnum Set <RPG> (Level 5)
03./03. (010./010.) [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 2 <RPG> (Nintendo)
04./06. (014./017.) [PS4] Nobunaga's Ambition: Taishi <SLG> (Koei Tecmo)
05./00. (016./000.) [PS4] Girls und Panzer: Dream Tank Match (First Limited Edition) <ACT> (Bandai Namco)
06./05. (017./015.) [3DS] Yo-kai Watch Busters 2: Sword <RPG> (Level 5)
07./07. (018./019.) [PS4] Earth Defense Force 5 <ACT> (D3 Publisher)
08./08. (020./021.) [3DS] Yo-kai Watch Busters 2: Magnum <RPG> (Level 5)
09./04. (021./012.) [PS4] Yakuza: Kiwami 2 <ACT> (Sega)
10./11. (023./051.) [3DS] Kirby Battle Royale <ETC> (Nintendo)
https://www.resetera.com/threads/me...4-2017-oct-30-nov-05.4746/page-30#post-871494
Rakuten Books Ranking Week 46, 2017 (Nov 13 - Nov 19)

***WARNING***

* Note: Games on the Rakuten Books Rankings are ONLY based on sales at Rakuten Books and does NOT count games sold by other retailers at Rakuten.
** Note 2: Games on the Pre-Orders Ranking are counted as net sales, so it might possibly affect the games listed on the Sales Ranking, since those sales are NOT added afterwards.
 

silpheed-mcd

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,384
Xenoblade 2

Xenoblade-Chronicles-2-Pyra.gif


ComG! pre-orders





Xenoblade Wii

ComG! preorders, last day: 72 pt
First week sales: 194 pt

Famitsu:
01./00. [WII] Xenoblade (Nintendo) - 79,163
LTD: 163.442

Media-create:
01./00. [WII] Xenoblade (Nintendo) - 82.952
LTD: 00./00. [WII] Xenoblade Chronicles <RPG> (Nintendo) {2010.06.10} (¥6.800) - * / 197.000


Xenoblade Chronicles 3D

ComG! preorders, last day: 26 pt
First week sales: 70 pt

Famitsu:
03./00. [3DS] Xenoblade Chronicles 3D |new 3DS| <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.02} (¥3.996) - 43.762 / NEW <40-60%>
LTD: 80. [3DS] Xenoblade Chronicles 3D |new 3DS| <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.02} (¥3.996) - 85.454

Media-create:
03./00. [3DS] Xenoblade Chronicles 3D |new 3DS| <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.02} (¥3.996) - 56.932 / NEW <58,66%>
LTD: 357./070. [3DS] Xenoblade Chronicles 3D |New Nintendo 2DS/New Nintendo 3DS| <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.02} (¥3.700) - 10.288 / 113.783 (-90%) (56.932 <58,66%>)


Xenoblade Chronicles X Wii U

ComG! preorders, last day: 69 pt (no bundles Wii U/ XCX included)
First week sales: 92 pt

Famitsu:
03./00. [WIU] Xenoblade Chronicles X # <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.29} (¥8.316) - 88.544 / NEW <60-80%>
LTD: 114.665 ( digital 22.805) ----> 137.470

Media-create:
03./00. [WIU] Xenoblade Chronicles X # <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.29} (¥8.316) - 85.586 / NEW
LTD: 389./064. [WIU] Xenoblade Chronicles X # <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.29} (¥7.700) - 8.753 / 127.366 (-93%) (85.586 <72,01%>)



PREDICTIONS
XENOBLADE 2 SWITCH, FIRST WEEK SALES, 2017 (Nov 27 - Dec 3) AND END OF YEAR, 2017 (Dec 25 - Dec 31)

https://www.resetera.com/threads/me...3-2017-oct-23-oct-29.3159/page-22#post-545452
 

ZSaberLink

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,675
Dengeki Online Sales: Week 46, 2017 (Nov 13 - Nov 19)

01./00. [3DS] Pokemon Ultra Sun (Pokemon Co.) {2017.11.17} - 340,394 / NEW
02./00. [3DS] Pokemon Ultra Moon (Pokemon Co.) {2017.11.17} - 338,618 / NEW
03./00. [3DS] Pokemon Ultra Sun / Ultra Moon Veteran Trainer's Dual Pack (Pokemon Co.) {2017.11.17} - 249,700 / NEW
04./01. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} - 57,467 / 707,354
05./00. [PS4] Star Wars: Battlefront II (Electronic Arts) {2017.11.17} - 32,139 / NEW
06./02. [PS4] Call of Duty: WWII (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2017.11.03} - 31,039 / 316,215
07./00. [WIU] Dragon Quest X: 5000-nen no Harukanaru Kokyou e Online (Square Enix) {2017.11.16} - 25,779 / NEW
08./03. [NSW] Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} - 22,728 / 1,361,041
09./00. [NSW] Dragon Quest X: 5000-nen no Harukanaru Kokyou e Online (Square Enix) {2017.11.16} - 18,114 / NEW
10./00. [PS4] Dragon Quest X: 5000-nen no Harukanaru Kokyou e Online (Square Enix) {2017.11.16} - 14,750 / NEW
11./05. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} - 13,206 / 849,848
12./06. [3DS] Style Savvy: Styling Star (Nintendo) {2017.11.02} - 6,574 / 49,709
13./07. [PS4] Ark: Survival Evolved (Spike Chunsoft) {2017.10.26} - 5,812 / 113,458
14./04. [PS4] Need for Speed: Payback (Electronic Arts) {2017.11.10} - 5,519 / 25,846
15./08. [PS4] Assassin's Creed: Origins (Ubisoft) {2017.10.27} - 5,035 / 77,359
16./09. [PS4] .hack//G.U. Last Recode (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.11.01} - 4,263 / 73,640
17./14. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} - 4,235 / 594,877
18./23. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo (Nintendo) {2016.11.23} - 3,739 / 243,830
19./17. [NSW] Pokken Tournament DX (Pokemon Co.) {2017.09.22} - 3,511 / 118,555
20./00. [PS4] The Sims 4 (Electronic Arts) {2017.11.17} - 3,200 / NEW
21./18. [3DS] The Snack World: TreJarers (Level 5) {2017.08.10} - 3,158 / 205,897
22./13. [3DS] Shin Megami Tensei: Strange Journey Redux (Atlus) {2017.10.26} - 2,611 / 82,046
23./15. [PS4] Gran Turismo Sport (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2017.10.19} - 2,482 / 185,426
24./00. [PSV] VA-11 Hall-A (Active Gaming Media) {2017.11.16} - 2,413 / NEW
25./20. [PS4] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum Session! (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.10.26} - 2,388 / 34,271
26./27. [NSW] 1-2-Switch (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} - 2,294 / 288,211
27./28. [NSW] ARMS (Nintendo) {2017.06.16} - 2,278 / 255,064
28./25. [NSW] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 for Nintendo Switch (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.09.07} - 2,228 / 58,839
29./22. [NSW] Snipperclips Plus: Cut it Out, Together! (Nintendo) {2017.11.10} - 2,011 / 4,858
30./58. [NSW] Dragon Quest X: All in One Package (Square Enix) {2017.09.21} - 1,944 / 19,810
31./61. [PS4] Dragon Quest X: All in One Package (Square Enix) {2017.08.17} - 1,773 / 32,891
32./34. [NSW] FIFA 18 (Electronic Arts) {2017.09.29} - 1,711 / 32,800
33./29. [3DS] Mario & Luigi: Superstar Saga + Bowser's Minions (Nintendo) {2017.10.05} - 1,617 / 58,390
34./35. [NSW] Monster Hunter Double Cross: Nintendo Switch Ver. (Capcom) {2017.08.25} - 1,594 / 169,287
35./38. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2015.10.08} - 1,533 / 327,466
36./54. [NSW] Super Bomberman R (Konami) {2017.03.03} - 1,528 / 122,342
37./24. [PS4] The Evil Within 2 (Bethesda Softworks) {2017.10.19} - 1,517 / 65,513
38./33. [PS4] Minecraft: Playstation 4 Edition (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2015.12.03} - 1,506 / 265,415
39./42. [PSV] Minecraft: Playstation Vita Edition (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2015.03.19} - 1,483 / 1,147,672
40./30. [PS4] Itadaki Street: Dragon Quest & Final Fantasy 30th Anniversary (Square Enix) {2017.10.19} - 1,456 / 61,255
41./37. [3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age (Square Enix) {2017.07.29} - 1,441 / 1,771,341
42./47. [3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission X (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.04.27} - 1,439 / 212,862
43./48. [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS (Nintendo) {2016.12.01} - 1,422 / 1,114,437
44./11. [NSW] Sonic Forces (Sega) {2017.11.09} - 1,367 / 7,529
45./49. [PS4] Final Fantasy XV (Square Enix) {2016.11.29} - 1,350 / 1,025,123
46./43. [PS4] Winning Eleven 2018 (Konami) {2017.09.14} - 1,300 / 110,965
47./00. [3DS] Tamagotchi no Puchi Puchi Omisechi: Ninki no Omise Atsume Maseta (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.11.16} - 1,278 / NEW
48./10. [PS4] Sonic Forces (Sega) {2017.11.09} - 1,222 / 7,482
49./50. [3DS] Sumikko Gurashi: Koko, Dokonan Desu? (Nippon Columbia) {2017.07.20} - 1,211 / 63,730
50./57. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 (Nintendo) {2011.12.01} - 1,206 / 2,680,195

SOFTWARE
Code:
--------------------------------------------------------
| Model | This Week | Week(%)  | FY 2017     | FY(%)   |
--------------------------------------------------------
| 3DS   | 986,491   | 74.0%    | 6,416,815   | 35.8%   |
| PS4   | 153,657   | 11.5%    | 5,818,014   | 32.5%   |
| Switch| 143,514   | 10.8%    | 4,345,417   | 24.2%   |
| Wii U | 28,821    | 2.2%     | 240,271     | 1.3%    |
| Vita  | 17,447    | 1.3%     | 963,822     | 5.4%    |
| PS3   | 3,079     | 0.2%     | 126,244     | 0.7%    |
| X One | 384       | 0.0%     | 12,419      | 0.1%    |
--------------------------------------------------------
| Total | 1,333,393 | 100.0%   | 17,923,002  | 100.0%  |
--------------------------------------------------------
HARDWARE
Code:
--------------------------------------------------------
| Model | This Week | Week(%)  | FY 2017     | FY(%)   |
--------------------------------------------------------
| Switch| 85,069    | 56.9%    | 1,681,237   | 45.2%   |
| 2DS   | 26,990    | 18.0%    | 475,813     | 12.8%   |
| PS4   | 23,174    | 15.5%    | 934,055     | 25.1%   |
| 3DS   | 11,021    | 7.4%     | 467,585     | 12.6%   |
| Vita  | 2,929     | 2.0%     | 144,852     | 3.9%    |
| X One | 347       | 0.2%     | 3,801       | 0.1%    |
| PS3   | 66        | 0.0%     | 6,964       | 0.2%    |
| Wii U | 23        | 0.0%     | 4,107       | 0.1%    |
--------------------------------------------------------
| Total | 149,619   | 100.0%   | 3,718,414   | 100.0%  |
--------------------------------------------------------

Dengeki Online Sales: Week 45, 2017 (Nov 06 - Nov 12)
 

Cinemikel

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,433
Man, on Dengeki, Gran Turismo Sport can barely outsell an HD remaster of an expansion of a spinoff Monster Hunter game on a system with a lesser install base.

It almost got outsold this week by a year late port of Xenoverse 2 which came out a month earlier than the game. What did Sony do to you...
 

silpheed-mcd

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,384
ComG! week sales, 2017 (Nov 20 - Nov 26)

5c4lyEUn_bigger.png



01 - [3DS] Pokémon Ultra Moon - 111 pt (- 493 pt)
02 - [3DS] Pokémon Ultra Sun - 101 pt (- 531 pt)
03 - [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 51 pt (+11 pt)
04 - [PS4] Call of Duty World War II - 39 pt (- 23 pt)
05 - [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 36 pt (- 2 pt)
06 - [PS4] Hatsune Miku Project DIVA Future Tone DX - 35 pt
07 - [PS4] StarWars Battlefront 2 - 32 pt (- 4 pt)
08 - [3DS] Animal Crossing Amiibo + - 31 pt (+ 23 pt)
09 - [3DS] Dragon Quest XI Passing and Seeking Time - 29 pt (+ 11 pt)
10 - [PS4] Hatsune Miku Project DIVA Future Tone DX Memorial Pack - 28 pt
11 - [3DS] Beyblade Burst God - 25 pt
12 - [3DS] GIRLS MODE 4 Star ☆ Stylist - 17 pt (+ 3 pt)
13 - [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 15 pt (+ 2 pt)
14 - [PS4] Dragon Ball Zenoverse 2 Deluxe Edition - 11 pt
15- [3DS] Shin Megami Tensei DEEP STRANGE JOURNEY (Normal Edition) - 11 pt
16 - [PS4] Wolfenstein 2: The New Colossus - 10 pt
17 - [NSW] The Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild - Adventure Guide Book & Map ~ - 10 pt
18- [3DS] Pokémon Ultra Sun Ultra Moon Dual Pack - 8 pt (- 246 pt)
19 - [PSV] Earth Defense Force 2 PORTABLE V2 (B version) - 7 pt
20 - [PS4] ARK: Survival Evolved - 7 pt (+ 1 pt)


ComG! week sales, 2017 (Nov 13 - Nov 19)
https://www.resetera.com/posts/1163988/
 
Oct 26, 2017
13,610
Man, on Dengeki, Gran Turismo Sport can barely outsell an HD remaster of an expansion of a spinoff Monster Hunter game on a system with a lesser install base.

It almost got outsold this week by a year late port of Xenoverse 2 which came out a month earlier than the game. What did Sony do to you...

Pff, XX Switch will easily outsell GTS at this rate.

Edit: WELP, it already has in Famitsu!

18./17. [PS4] Gran Turismo Sport # <RCE> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2017.10.19} (¥6.900) - 3.099 / 166.398 <60-80%> (-11%)

28./27. [NSW] Monster Hunter Double Cross: Nintendo Switch Ver. # <ACT> (Capcom) {2017.08.25} (¥5.800) - 2.001 / 181.082 <80-100%> (-9%)
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,172
Xenoverse 2 hasn't sold 4 million in the west yet unless Black Friday gave it a huge push.

I'm not really expecting much from GTS, but who knows.

Souls is a maybe. I don't think we have the numbers.

The latest Naruto is at 3m ww combined with the Boruto stuff and the franchise is done.

Based on how KH2 sold that's actually questionable.

Tekken 7 is nowhere close to hitting 4 million in the west and I don't think it ever will.
I think Mantis meant franchise and not single entry.
 

NiteJohn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
255
I agree with this reasoning in most parts but the part with Sakamoto is a bit confusing. If they had fear of a backlash with Sakamoto being a producer for Metroid, then why he was the producer of Samus Returns?
I should preface that I don't have inside sources. Most of what I talk about is observations and analyzing. But the big thing was timing.

He was given them million seller elsewhere so they were less will to indulge him. But the fans kept asking. The reaction to TF specifically meant that when he wanted to make another one they were probably more willing. Not to mention they had a developer that want to make a remake, something they can rely on not have that much backlash. People are more willing to forgive a remake or remaster. It was less you can't make one and more try other thing and wait awhile to let the heat cooldown. The fact that the next Metroid game after Federation Force was a game produced by the person that directed Other M is proof in itself. Most would have pushed it far away from his hands. I do believe that if he pushed hard enough it would have happen earlier, but that he also agree to stepping back for awhile.

If we take all of the available information for Metroid in the last 20 years. Most thing are like a connect the dot puzzle. Next Level Metroid pitch that they were leery about. The No they said to MS before Sakamoto (coming off of Tomodachi Life) decided to do it. Metroid Life has been a series of unfortunate events. Yes like the books. Good thing happens, bad thing follows.

Like I said Nintendo does pay attention to their fans sometimes. We know that they tried to get F-Zero going again. And that they made a new Pilotwings because people asked. There's Zelda and Mario along with the many series that just pop back up out of nowhere. That, and the reaction to FF is the reason both Prime 4(with nothing but a logo) and Samus Returns was announce at the same time. Codename:Steam has a bad reaction at E3 less market and don't talk about it (same thing happened to FF). Splatoon has amazing buzz from E3, plaster it everywhere. Its like clockwork. If the game had a bad really showing at any game show or direct they pretend it doesn't exist. If people can't stop talking about it, the biggest push on the internet comes from Nintendo. Hell, the same happens to Pokemon. Sun/Moon and USun/UMoon had the more push, less push dichotomy respectively. The only series this doesn't happen to is funnily enough Xenoblade. It exist outside the paradigm on all things.

Nintendo makes a lot of mistake, but you almost always see the through line in their marketing and presentation. Its why people call them a reactive company instead of proactive company. And why they stumble a lot. If Other M was a success we would be on number three by now. They were positioning it to be big, like 5-7m big. Maybe bigger.
 

Adventureracing

The Fallen
Nov 7, 2017
8,035
Looks like Xenoblade is going to have a good first week. With the switch potentially moving 1 million+ units of HW in December there's a lot of opportunity for new buyers to get the game.

Hoping the switch will see 100K+ this week. Then from XB2 it's time for the really big weeks hopefully. The US seems to be getting some massive stock so hopefully Japan will soon see the same.

Monster Hunter World selling 4 million in the West? I am sure there is some universe where that MIGHT be possible, certainly not in this one.

I have no idea what it will sell but I don't see how you can possibly be this certain. I don't think 4 million is likely at all but I don't see why it's impossible.

Monster Hunter World PS4 edition on Amazon is currently #260 on on the US games chart.......If people are preordering this game in the West, it is certainly not through Amazon.

On the Amazon Japan charts it is doing much better, but we really have not seen any indication that its going to sell 2, 3 or even 4 million in the West.

It's currently the Christmas shopping season, how many pre orders were you expecting to see? I don't think amazon is that great of an indicator anyway.

I agree there are no metrics to suggest such a massive jump for the franchise. It seems to be getting quite a good reaction and videos related to it seem to garner a lot of views. Right now it's almost impossible to tell what to expect.
 

Nocturnal

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,321
Rakuten Books Sales Ranking Week 47, 2017 (Nov 20 - Nov 26)

01./00. (003./000.) [3DS] Pokémon Ultra Sun <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
02./03. (004./004.) [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey <ACT> (Nintendo)
03./02. (005./002.) [3DS] Pokémon Ultra Moon <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
04./07. (012./014.) [3DS] Pokemon Ultra Sun / Ultra Moon Dual Pack <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
05./04. (013./008.) [NSW] Splatoon 2 <ACT> (Nintendo)
06./00. (015./000.) [PS4] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva Future Tone DX (Memorial Pack) <ACT> (Sega)
07./06. (022./013.) [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo)
08./05. (031./011.) [PS4] Call of Duty: World War II <ACT> (Sony Interactive)
09./10. (032./023.) [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <ADV> (Nintendo)
10./00. (039./000.) [3DS] Beyblade Burst: God <RPG> (FuRyu)
11./00. (053./000.) [PS4] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva Future Tone DX <ACT> (Sega)
12./00. (061./000.) [PS4] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 - Deluxe Edition <FTG> (Bandai Namco)

13./08. (084./018.) [PS4] Star Wars: Battlefront II (Deluxe Edition) <ACT> (Electronic Arts)
14./09. (090./020.) [PS4] Star Wars: Battlefront II <ACT> (Electronic Arts)
15./13. (095./037.) [PS4] Assasin's Creed: Origins <ACT> (Ubisoft)
16./11. (103./024.) [NSW] Dragon Quest X: 5000 Year Journey to a Faraway Hometown <RPG> (Square Enix)
17./19. (107./086.) [NSW] Pokkén Tournament DX <FTG> (Pokémon Co.)
18./17. (112./052.) [PS4] ARK: Survival Evolved <ACT> (Spike Chunsoft)
19./21. (119./105.) [NSW] 1-2-Switch <ETC> (Nintendo)
20./00. (144./000.) [PS4] Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus <ACT> (Bethesda)

ComG! week sales, 2017 (Nov 20 - Nov 26)

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01 - [3DS] Pokémon Ultra Moon - 111 pt (- 493 pt)
02 - [3DS] Pokémon Ultra Sun - 101 pt (- 531 pt)
03 - [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 51 pt (+11 pt)
04 - [PS4] Call of Duty World War II - 39 pt (- 23 pt)
05 - [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 36 pt (- 2 pt)
06 - [PS4] Hatsune Miku Project DIVA Future Tone DX - 35 pt
07 - [PS4] StarWars Battlefront 2 - 32 pt (- 4 pt)
08 - [3DS] Animal Crossing Amiibo + - 31 pt (+ 23 pt)
09 - [3DS] Dragon Quest XI Passing and Seeking Time - 29 pt (+ 11 pt)
10 - [PS4] Hatsune Miku Project DIVA Future Tone DX Memorial Pack - 28 pt
11 - [3DS] Beyblade Burst God - 25 pt

12 - [3DS] GIRLS MODE 4 Star ☆ Stylist - 17 pt (+ 3 pt)
13 - [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 15 pt (+ 2 pt)
14 - [PS4] Dragon Ball Zenoverse 2 Deluxe Edition - 11 pt
15- [3DS] Shin Megami Tensei DEEP STRANGE JOURNEY (Normal Edition) - 11 pt
16 - [PS4] Wolfenstein 2: The New Colossus - 10 pt
17 - [NSW] The Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild - Adventure Guide Book & Map ~ - 10 pt

18- [3DS] Pokémon Ultra Sun Ultra Moon Dual Pack - 8 pt (- 246 pt)
19 - [PSV] Earth Defense Force 2 PORTABLE V2 (B version) - 7 pt
20 - [PS4] ARK: Survival Evolved - 7 pt (+ 1 pt)


ComG! week sales, 2017 (Nov 13 - Nov 19)
https://www.resetera.com/posts/1163988/

I'm guessing we are trending towards Super Mario Odyssey going up considerably this week due to bundles if its ahead of UM version of Pokemon on Rakuten, while having such points on COMG which doesn't track bundles in their weekly sales charts. My guess is that it's trending towards a 50% ratio vs non-bundled units or the Switch shipment is far larger than prior ones(>135K). If we see it rise above >75K this week, it's pretty likely SMO passes MK8D the week after this one. In terms of the pace SMO is looking to pass 1M by Week 49 with plenty of time to sell a bit more before the end of the year.

Pokemon US/UM
drop was foretold by Chris and others, so second week being between 200-275K is looking like a certainty, if it sales less than that, then I can only imagine how badly other upcoming 3DS titles will do. Overall what I expected to happen to the 3DS at the start of the year is finally materializing - Sun and Moon, DQXI, MHXX, revision etc can only keep the 3DS active for so long with a direct competition in terms of active user base. A lot of the active audience has simply "Switched off" at this point, 3DS next year will be anemic and certainly won't pass 1M with how quickly Switch is selling and expanding it's library. If Switch didn't ran into it's supply issue this would have been more pronounced earlier in the year, but I guess it was fortunate that supply problems and a few big titles were able to keep 3DS's 7th year respectable.

Switch software is beginning to rise with the holiday supply, Splatoon 2 finishing ahead of Hatsune Miku on Rakuten and slightly behind on COMG speaks of this. Hatsune Miku was predicted to sell <40k by YSO so in all likelyhood we are finally seeing another >35K week for Splatoon 2 this time without bundling. It's fairly clear that it would be between Splatoon 2 and Super Mario Odyssey in terms of which game sales the most in December. The update rollout for the holidays is something I've always expected - 4 ranked/turfwar maps, 1 Salmon Run map, 140 new pieces of gear, new hairstyles, new pants and most importantly a new mode in the middle of December. The staggered rollout of the updates ensures that the game will continue to get a huge push and lots of coverage over the next few weeks. It's very much what I've anticipated since the launch, while the content of the update pretty much lives up to the expectations I posted a thread speculating on it ahead of the announcement:

Reasons to launch big update this holiday:
- Holiday Sales: Splatoon 2 is the biggest Switch game in Japan and hasn't done too badly in the West. November and December are two months where its' expected for Nintendo to sell around 40-50% of Switches during 2017. With Splatoon 2 being potentially the best selling game of the year in Japan and Nintendo's barren December schedule(X2 and Zelda DLC) a major update for Splatoon 2 will be a great thing that will provide them free marketing(news articles, social media feeds of new footage captured after the update, some new ads, etc
- Subscription Service launching next year: outside of Splatoon 2, Nintendo has two online multiplayer games MK8D and Arms. Arms is getting post launch support but has shipped only about 1/3 of what Splatoon 2 has, while there haven't been any new DLC plans announced for MK8D even is it continues to sell at an extremely rapid pace. Since it's unlikely that Nintendo has another major multiplayer focused game launching in Q1 2018 they would need to push their online subscriptions via the existing library of games out of which MK8D and Splatoon 2 are the biggest titles. Unlike MK8D Splatoon 2 doesn't provide local multiplayer on the go unless you have multiple Switches and thus the online sub service will need to be pushed by Splatoon 2.

Overall I continue to expect Splatoon 2 to come up on top in December despite SMO getting the bundled treatment. It had close to 1:1 ratio with the Wii U during it's first holidays so sales shooting up as more kids are able to pick up the Switch is definitely something I've been looking for. Hopefully it ends the year around 2.5M, Splatoon 2 is integral in terms of Nintendo's online subscription plans and would be a major contributor towards them being able to drive adoption in the future. It's not exactly hidden either, if you go to their online app currently it's just SplatNet 2. A few posters have been talking about the barren lineup in Q1 2018, but with Splatoon 2 updates its likely not going to be much of an issue. I fully expect another major update once the paid service is released.

That leaves the other Switch titles which are set to get a boost during the holiday, MK8D could finish a bit behind SMO but I would personally expect the game to continue selling as more new owners get the system. I would not be surprised if new DLC is announced for early next year, since I don't anticipate MK9 to arrive in the next year. Perhaps it won't be as substancial but a few new cups and a few new battle stages, qol improvements etc isn't something out of the realm of possibility. I've already outlined that in 2017 there is only three Nintendo games that are online focused and MK8D has sold more in the West than Splatoon 2. So while Splatoon 2 will be driving the subs in Japan, MK8D needs to be the major driver in the West until some other big online game is announced by Nintendo.

Zelda:BotW DLC is set for December and while it might not be able to match MK8D, SMO or Splatoon 2 in terms of holiday sales, we've already seen it sell at a consistent level for over 8 months. I think it definitely can move an additional 200K by the end of the year in Japan. I just don't see a situation where with potentially >1.25M new Switch owners by the end of the year Zelda doesn't reach at least 15% attach rate over the course of the next few weeks. It's legs weren't really hurt by other Nintendo properties and there would be new owners looking to jump into Hyrule this holiday. It will definitely receive a push in Japan for the DLC release.
 

BishopLamont

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
377
we have to remember mh:w was greenlit at a time when ps4 seemed to be the next platform coming off huge western sales and also decent sales in japan, it was definitely made to expand its fanbase in the west

capcom would be happy if it sold 3-4m in the west and 1m or so in japan

it is mainline in the way dqx and ffxiv is mainline, to help sell the game, the main game thats going to sell in japan will come to switch, there is no way they abandon this portable fanbase

can't really blame capcom for believing in the ps4, most third parties did. what you can fault them for is not adding a switch sku knowing the 3ds wasn't an option and they had early knowledge of the switch's existence, they knew it was going to be the next portable

to this point ill extend it to every other third party, it is absurd to think nintendo would screw up their next portable console given their track record, especially when they're dedicating everything they have to this one console, failure really was no option for nintendo and third parties should have been on board the moment they had knowledge of it

Even if Switch eventually gets some form of Monster Hunter it is abundantly clear that it was not part of the original roadmap for the franchise so yes Capcom was ready and willing to abandon the Japanese fanbase.
not really, they just wanted to wait to see where the next portable entry would make sense
they didn't know whether the 3ds or the next nintendo portable made more sense

in the meantime the ps4 was a huge success in the west, so they thought why not? while they wait and see what happens with the portable entry

why would they abandon the japanese fanbase, the main selling fanbase for the game in japan? it makes no sense at all
 
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Encephalon

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,856
Japan
we have to remember mh:w was greenlit at a time when ps4 seemed to be the next platform coming off huge western sales and also decent sales in japan, it was definitely made to expand its fanbase in the west

capcom would be happy if it sold 3-4m in the west and 1m or so in japan

it is mainline in the way dqx and ffxiv is mainline, to help sell the game, the main game thats going to sell in japan will come to switch, there is no way they abandon this portable fanbase

can't really blame capcom for believing in the ps4, most third parties did. what you can fault them for is not adding a switch sku knowing the 3ds wasn't an option and they had early knowledge of the switch's existence, they knew it was going to be the next portable

to this point ill extend it to every other third party, it is absurd to think nintendo would screw up their next portable console given their track record, especially when they're dedicating everything they have to this one console, failure really was no option for nintendo and third parties should have been on board the moment they had knowledge of it


not really, they just wanted to wait to see where the next portable entry would make sense
they didn't know whether the 3ds or the next nintendo portable made more sense

in the meantime the ps4 was a huge success in the west, so they thought why not? while they wait and see what happens with the portable entry

why would they abandon the japanese fanbase, the main selling fanbase for the game in japan? it makes no sense at all

It's probably not so much that they didn't think that Nintendo would screw up a handheld and more that they didn't know if the public would receive it as one.
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
here's a thought I've had about Xenoblade 2 post Dragon Questi 11. given that it's an rpg, sales are probably gonna be pretty damn front-loaded. Zelda is a bit odd to me with its legs despite being a single player game. DQ11's fell off relatively quickly for a number of reasons, but I think being a single player game is a big cause. with no multiplayer component, there're not many ways to retain value and keep people from reselling the game upon completion. I wonder if Xenoblade 2 will suffer the same fate and if MonolithSoft's next game will be more co-operative (or competitive) focused and not suffer the same issues. they are hiring online programmers much like they did in the run up to Xenoblade X, after all
 

Cinemikel

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,433
here's a thought I've had about Xenoblade 2 post Dragon Questi 11. given that it's an rpg, sales are probably gonna be pretty damn front-loaded. Zelda is a bit odd to me with its legs despite being a single player game. DQ11's fell off relatively quickly for a number of reasons, but I think being a single player game is a big cause. with no multiplayer component, there're not many ways to retain value and keep people from reselling the game upon completion. I wonder if Xenoblade 2 will suffer the same fate and if MonolithSoft's next game will be more co-operative (or competitive) focused and not suffer the same issues. they are hiring online programmers much like they did in the run up to Xenoblade X, after all
That should tell you all you need to know. X was still a single player game all the way
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
That should tell you all you need to know. X was still a single player game all the way
you sure as hell wouldnt be able to tell that from the game design. it was like they went 99% of the way and stopped just short of letting you run around/team up with other people in a game world. the way loot drops worked, the character customization, the stat customization, the design of NLA, the way quests were doled out, etc. it was a prototype MMO and it'll be hard to convince me otherwise that someone wasn't thinking of MMOs when they pivoted towards online play. the co-op bosses were nice and all, and the ability to recruit other people's characters was cool, but damn, they should have gone whole hog.

Xenoblade X is why I'm almost adamant that their medieval game is a successor to it in the same way XC2 is to XC1. I'm cant predict how this hypothetical game will turn out sales wise, but I'd like to believe that a proper online focus would help the game's legs. not necessarily a DQ9 style of legs, but persistence in the sales charts
 

Vareon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,843
you sure as hell wouldnt be able to tell that from the game design. it was like they went 99% of the way and stopped just short of letting you run around/team up with other people in a game world. the way loot drops worked, the character customization, the stat customization, the design of NLA, the way quests were doled out, etc. it was a prototype MMO and it'll be hard to convince me otherwise that someone wasn't thinking of MMOs when they pivoted towards online play. the co-op bosses were nice and all, and the ability to recruit other people's characters was cool, but damn, they should have gone whole hog.

Xenoblade X is why I'm almost adamant that their medieval game is a successor to it in the same way XC2 is to XC1. I'm cant predict how this hypothetical game will turn out sales wise, but I'd like to believe that a proper online focus would help the game's legs. not necessarily a DQ9 style of legs, but persistence in the sales charts

Iwata Asks (RIP) on XCX touched this aspect. Their goal from the start seem to be a single player game with a degree of online interaction rather than a full MMO.
If fleshed out, I think the online component would be more similar to MonHun than an MMO.
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
Iwata Asks (RIP) on XCX touched this aspect. Their goal from the start seem to be a single player game with a degree of online interaction rather than a full MMO.
If fleshed out, I think the online component would be more similar to MonHun than an MMO.
I'm not sure it would have been like MonHun. granted NLA is a far larger hub than in any MH game (maybe even World from what little we've seen of the new hub). and combine that with the ability to move in and out of it freely was reminiscent of FF14 (my only frame of reference with MMOs). granted this could also have been due to the fact that the game was still primarily single player. if they did go full MMO-ish, NLA might have been segmented
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,617
Wonder if it would be smart to ape Destiny with XCX2.
Seems like they were going for something similar but Monolith dropped the ball.
Needs more online/GAAS functionality to differentiate itself from the normal Xenoblade franchise. It's just a XC game with a bad story and a worse structure
 

Neoxon

Spotlighting Black Excellence - Diversity Analyst
Member
Oct 25, 2017
85,367
Houston, TX
Wait, did specific numbers already come out? Did we see how big the drop was for US/UM?
 

MoonFrog

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,969
I haven't played DQX but it comes across as an evolution of ideas they were experimenting with in DQIX. It seems pretty naturally mainline, to me. IDK. Again, I haven't played it.
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,500
Wonder if it would be smart to ape Destiny with XCX2.
Seems like they were going for something similar but Monolith dropped the ball.
Needs more online/GAAS functionality to differentiate itself from the normal Xenoblade franchise. It's just a XC game with a bad story and a worse structure

If they want a destiny feel they need to just go real time in the combat. XCX is like an overly complicated single player MMO that wouldn't be fun to play in a Destiny team up style as is. Just make it a real time action game if that's the audience they want.
 

Fisico

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,106
Paris
PREDICTION LEAGUE DECEMBER 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Nov 27 to Dec 31):

[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (35 days) - 330k
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (35 days) - 1150k
[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware (35 days) - 300k
[3DS] Pokémon Ultra Sun / Ultra Moon [2nd month] (35 days) - 380k
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (31 days) - 175k
[PS4] Yakuza Kiwami 2 (25 days) - 190k
[3DS] Yo-kai Watch Busters 2: Hihou Densetsu Banbarayaa Magnum / Sword (25 days) - 350k

I don't see YWB2 declining as much as many predictions seem to think it will, YW3 showed the IP still has some sales potential, sure it's down by a huge amount, but YWB1 launched at near 700k and did more than 1M in a few weeks during summer. Similarly YW3 FW/LTD numbers are hovering around 40-50% of YW2 (with a notable amount of overshipping though).
Taking that into account, YWB2 selling at least a third of what YWB did does not seem that farfeteched, it's still a low number and a big decline but the IP is not dead to the point it will only sell 150-200k especially during holiday.
Writing that makes me want to update my prediction with a bigger number even ahah.
 
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ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
If they want a destiny feel they need to just go real time in the combat. XCX is like an overly complicated single player MMO that wouldn't be fun to play in a Destiny team up style as is. Just make it a real time action game if that's the audience they want.
funny you should say that :P

I dont think the XCX gameplay would be problematic given the popularity of its style of combat in MMOs. people say Xenoblade is MMO-like for a reason. that being said, going real-time would do more to expand the audience. Takahashi says he makes games for a worldly audience so the medieval game would probably have the biggest potential out of all Monolith Soft's games to date: popular art style (Square Enix and Atlus are going this same route for a reason), real-time action combat, and online/service compnent
 

Harpoon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,575
Dunno if this was posted, but Games Maya is saying Xenoblade 2 is currently their #1 pre-ordered game.
 

Fisico

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,106
Paris
I wish it were an actual, real indication of things to come but isn't it just a single store?

2nd is Yakuza Kiwami 2 a know quantity (expect a FW somewhere between 120-150k), 3rd is Earth Defense Force 5.
They probably don't have preorders opened for MHW because it doesn't seem to appear in the chart (unlike Dissidia at 5th)
 
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