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K Samedi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,990
Now that I look the dates next Media Create thread marks 10 years from when I took over the creation of them.

Many things changed to the best since them and some remained the same. Time flies.
Thanks for your amazing contribution to these threads. Its a nice weekly discussion topic with lots of familiar posters.
 

foxuzamaki

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,559
the kh/mh/dq factor wasn't something i considered either. ps4 consolidated franchises that had scattered to other platforms. it really highlights the weakness in the platform at the lower milestones being so much weaker than ps3 despite a similar size in userbase.



that is a pretty good point. i hadn't considered that aspect. it might be the best indication of the possible end of playstation as any kind of powerhouse in japan with ps5.

the companies on playstation have to be feeling it - either in how sony is approaching them on ps5 (or not approaching them on ps5), how ps4 sales have slowed while vita sales died, and/or how weak playstation japan has become in terms of negotiating power. it's not like nintendo is suddenly better. the audience for their games hasn't been established -sometimes due to a lack of trying- and ps4 games are simply more profitable per unit. plus, any company who is trying to now work with nintendo has to establish new relationships where there might not be any, if they want to start approaching what kind of relationship playstation japan had -and in some cases, it can be worrisome for those who have ties with playstation when japan had the dealmaking power of ten years ago. it's why something like danganronpa on switch is still tricky despite it being so blindingly obviously a good idea.

i don't know how some companies are going to get out of 2020 without making some serious changes to their plans. but who knows. maybe ps5 will turn things around for the console playstation market in japan, or keep the 2018-2019 ps4 status quo going another few years, with sharp spikes in major release dates. but that's back to describing the gamecube again.
Why didnt these publishers/developers tried to form these partnership and deals earlier for long term gain, they should know how volatile this industry is having to go back and forth between Sony and nintendo
 

Glio

Member
Oct 27, 2017
24,522
Spain
Between Spike Chunsoft seems to have no interest in Switch and that Mystery Dungeon was losing relevance with each game, I don't think any of the parties involved have much interest.

With Creatures dedicated to Detective Pikachu, Bandai Namco in a hypothetical Pokken 2, there aren't as many possibilities for more spin offs. Maybe Koei Tecmo. Pokemon Ranger was made between HAL and Creatures and both now have other things to do.
 

Deleted member 59

Guest
Chris has been the MVP for nearly 10 years, amazing! Long may it continue :)

Many thanks.
 

test_account

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,645
Nintendo is an anomaly, a special case.
In the hypothetical case in which Nintendo doesn't exists, you would need another company that act as a special case to fill the void.
Nintendo took advantage of their monopolistic position during the Famicom days to shape up the company in a company that aggressively pursuit genre kings with mass market appeal, they specialized in creating timeless franchises based around unique and fun ideas that they keep alive generation after generation.
It's not the presence of Nintendo which prevented other japanese game publishers to create franchise like Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Splatoon or Ring Fit Adventure.
Yeah, i think i see your point. Its not sure that someone else would have been able to replicate Nintendo pretty much exactly when it comes to overall software sales, if that is what you mean? If so, i agree with that. My initial respond and line of thought was just that i think we'd still have a pretty big gaming industry today, because i think someone else would have grabbed people's attention and time instead, based on that people are interested in gaming in general. And sure, Nintendo havnt stopped anyone from creating big franchises themself, but it does lead to bigger competition, and people are spending their time and money on those games instead because those games are the most interesting ones. But overall its just pure speculation how things would be. I have no idea how big the overall market would be in general if it wasnt for Nintendo. Its the same thing about speculating if the gaming market would have been as big as it is today if it wasnt for the Playstation (which helped expanding gaming to the masses). Or if phones today would be quite different if it wasnt for the iPhone. Really not possible to say. But i dont want to sound like i'm trying to downplay what Nintendo has done or anything like that. What we can say for certain is that Nintendo has contributed a lot to the gaming industry, especially in Japan :) There is no doubt about that.

EDIT: I added some text.
 
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IronTed

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jun 6, 2019
1,435
Prediction for Nintendo Switch full year hardware sales
(all NSW models combined; predict the cumulative sales number of Week 1, 2019 through Week 52, 2019 per Famitsu)

Andri - 4.882.041
DarkDetective - 5.140.000
*Guaraná - 4.356.261
Ikaben - 4.446.000
Lelouch0612 - 5.000.000
Lichtsang - 4.900.000
Limabean01 - 4.823.712
oracion - 4.050.000
Ryng Manuel Tolu - 4.750.000
Vern - 5.140.001
Zedark - 4.725.000
z0m3le - 4.960.000

IronTed - 4.800.000
 

foxuzamaki

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,559
jd5uEQ.gif
Ugh man, that wasent anywhere near as satisfying as BOTW link tumbling down a mountain breaking every bone in his body
 

IronTed

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jun 6, 2019
1,435
Now that I look the dates next Media Create thread marks 10 years from when I took over the creation of them.

Many things changed to the best since them and some remained the same. Time flies.

Wow, happy anniversary, and thanks for making these threads. Your insights are a treasure indeed.
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,925
I'm not sure if Spike Chunsoft's lack of interest in Switch has that much bearing on PMD. They didn't have much interest in 3DS either and still did the contracts for Nintendo anyway.

I feel like it falls more on TPC than anything.
 

Deleted member 10737

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
49,774
thanks Chris1964 for making these threads. i loved them for YEARS when i was a lurker on the old forum, and when i made an account here i was the most excited about finally being able to participate in them. of course i still feel pretty unknowledgeable about sales to regularly post or make predictions, but reading these threads is always a good time.
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
For Lite don't expect sales to slow down big time comparing to OG anytime soon with Animal Crossing around. It will have 35-40% from Switch market next year too.

New colors and limited editions will push it. Tomodachi is another big seller for it.
On the wake of Animal Crossing I also expect a new Style Boutique game (to help expand the female audience on NSW).
 

Mpl90

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,215
Switch Publisher Rankings: Famitsu Week 47, 2019
vPSSRrL.png

*Digital sales not included
**Sales of title that re-entered the Top 30 have had the difference since their last appearance added to this week


Also, per my data the Switch has 30 titles above 200k and just 41 titles above 100k. It is really missing that mid-range seller. It also currently has no titles between 500k and 700k or 800k and 1M (now that Minecraft cleared that mark). In fact, I made a graph of Switch games under 1 million quickly, sorry for the lack of labels and general shitty graph making.

ekULw7S.png

Great job as always.
Unfortunately, since this is Famitsu, we're missing numbers for older games that can still sell outside of the charts.

For example: titles such as Puyo Puyo Tetris, Snipperclips and the first Sumikko Gurashi crossed the 100k mark, but Famitsu will never report about them. Also, even if not as big as elsewhere, digital sales are a component not properly tracked (not even including vouchers-affected games, see Octopath Traveler's situation). It's an incomplete picture, but not your fault, Piston.

Also, I can't thank enough Chris1964 for the 10-years-long hard work in creating Media Create threads.
 

Deleted member 8593

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
27,176
I'm not sure if Spike Chunsoft's lack of interest in Switch has that much bearing on PMD. They didn't have much interest in 3DS either and still did the contracts for Nintendo anyway.

I feel like it falls more on TPC than anything.

With everything besides Pokémon Go failing to be more than a moderate success, maybe they'll reconsider their stance towards spin offs. Detective Pikachu 2 (?) is a step in the right direction.
 

Glio

Member
Oct 27, 2017
24,522
Spain
I'm not sure if Spike Chunsoft's lack of interest in Switch has that much bearing on PMD. They didn't have much interest in 3DS either and still did the contracts for Nintendo anyway.

I feel like it falls more on TPC than anything.
But making a PMD for Switch requires more people than for 3DS and they don't have much experience with the platform.
 

Kozy

Member
Dec 4, 2017
1,006
Now that I look the dates next Media Create thread marks 10 years from when I took over the creation of them.

Many things changed to the best since them and some remained the same. Time flies.

I've been following them for at least 8 of those 10 years (tho mostly as a lurker) so just want to say that I really appreciate all the work you do for us.
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,925
But making a PMD for Switch requires more people than for 3DS and they don't have much experience with the platform.
I don't think PMD is the type of game that really balloons significantly in dev demands gen over gen. Especially now that they're 3D and can just use readymade assets. Platform experience is a non-issue too, Chunsoft hadn't even made a game on 3DS before doing Gates to Infinity.
 

Fularu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,609
I remember when CheeseMeister was making the threads and the OP had boxarts for the top 5

Time sure flies. Before that « The Magic Box » was my weekly sales provider (circa 1998-1999)
 

Deleted member 59

Guest
I remember when CheeseMeister was making the threads and the OP had boxarts for the top 5

Time sure flies. Before that « The Magic Box » was my weekly sales provider (circa 1998-1999)

I forgot about The Magic Box. Was my got to site for news and stuff back in the day.
 

ZSaberLink

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,677
Dengeki Online Sales: Week 47, 2019 (Nov 18 - Nov 24)

01./01. [NSW] Pokemon Sword (Pokemon Co.) {2019.11.15} - 199,367 / 699,120
02./02. [NSW] Pokemon Shield (Pokemon Co.) {2019.11.15} - 120,613 / 468,242
03./03. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield Double Pack (Pokemon Co.) {2019.11.15} - 43,947 / 298,559
04./06. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo) {2019.10.18} - 26,133 / 294,464
05./05. [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 (Nintendo) {2019.10.31} - 23,956 / 277,629
06./00. [PS4] Shenmue III (Deep Silver) {2019.11.19} - 17,553 / NEW
07./04. [PS4] Death Stranding (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2019.11.08} - 13,467 / 250,510
08./07. [PS4] Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order (Electronic Arts) {2019.11.15} - 10,993 / 40,413
09./10. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} - 8,741 / 1,055,304
10./11. [NSW] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 (Sega) {2019.11.01} - 7,950 / 46,867
11./12. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} - 7,629 / 3,412,582
12./22. [NSW] Super Mario Party (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} - 7,312 / 1,159,932
13./15. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} - 7,206 / 2,372,032
14./14. [NSW] Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.07.25} - 6,522 / 232,513
15./08. [PS4] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2019.10.25} - 6,020 / 180,514
16./16. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo) {2019.06.28} - 5,594 / 659,643
17./18. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age S - Definitive Edition (Square Enix) {2019.09.27} - 4,378 / 452,553
18./19. [NSW] Disney Tsum Tsum Festival (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.10.10} - 3,639 / 71,106
19./09. [PS4] Need for Speed: Heat (Electronic Arts) {2019.11.08} - 3,447 / 28,637
20./13. [PS4] Persona 5 Royal (Atlus) {2019.10.31} - 3,412 / 233,970
21./23. [NSW] Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} - 3,306 / 3,122,179
22./20. [NSW] Fortnite: Darkfire Bundle (Epic Games) {2019.11.07} - 3,244 / 13,131
23./25. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} - 2,776 / 1,114,259
24./00. [PS4] Deemo Reborn (Unties) {2019.11.21} - 2,754 / NEW
25./30. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (Nintendo) {2019.01.11} - 2,353 / 741,692‬
26./21. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town (Marvelous) {2019.10.17} - 2,311 / 102,371
27./28. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! (Pokemon Co.) {2018.11.16} - 2,106 / 900,565
28./31. [NSW] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball (Konami) {2019.06.27} - 1,922 / 186,261
29./29. [NSW] Eiga Sumikko Gurashi: Tobidasu Ehon to Himitsu no Ko - Game de Asobou! Ehon no Sekai (Nippon Columbia) {2019.11.07} - 1,850 / 7,682
30./00. [PS4] Sid Meier's Civilization VI (2K Games) {2019.11.22} - 1,847 / NEW
31./27. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Eevee! (Pokemon Co.) {2018.11.16} - 1,822 / 734,476
32./26. [PS4] Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne Master Edition (Capcom) {2019.09.06} - 1,738 / 430,835
33./32. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (Nintendo) {2019.09.20} - 1,676 / 226,645
34./00. [NSW] Diabolik Lovers: Grand Edition for Nintendo Switch (Idea Factory) {2019.11.21} - 1,613 / NEW
35./33. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.07.19} - 1,588 / 401,512
36./00. [PS4] BlazBlue: Cross Tag Battle - Special Edition (Arc System Works) {2019.11.21} - 1,439 / NEW
37./35. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} - 1,424 / 1,870,013
38./36. [NSW] Model Debut Nicola (FuRyu) {2019.11.01} - 1,150 / 7,058
39./43. [NSW] FIFA 20 Legacy Edition (Electronic Arts) {2019.09.27} - 1,141 / 25,511
40./34. [NSW] Fire Emblem: Three Houses (Nintendo) {2019.07.26} - 1,082 / 286,308
41./37. [PS4] eFootball Winning Eleven 2020 (Konami) {2019.09.12} - 1,050 / 106,195
42./45. [NSW] Fit Boxing (Imagineer) {2018.12.20} - 989 / 54,204
43./39. [NSW] Fortnite (Warner Entertainment Japan) {2018.12.13} - 950 / 55,578
44./40. [NSW] Olympic Games Tokyo 2020: The Official Video Game (Sega) {2019.07.24} - 906 / 62,225
45./38. [NSW] Resident Evil Triple Pack (Capcom) {2019.10.31} - 888 / 9,381
46./47. [NSW] Kirby Star Allies (Nintendo) {2018.03.16} - 876 / 787,658
47./54. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Breakpoint (Ubisoft) {2019.10.04} - 850 / 73,483
48./00. [NSW] BlazBlue: Cross Tag Battle - Special Edition (Arc System Works) {2019.11.21} - 835 / NEW
49./53. [NSW] Sumikko Gurashi: Gakkou Seikatsu Hajimerun Desu (Nippon Columbia) {2019.07.18} - 822 / 7,264
50./17. [PS4] Tokyo Ghoul: re Call to Exist (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.11.14} - 813 / 5,432

Top 50

NSW - 37
PS4 - 13

SOFTWARE
Code:
--------------------------------------------------------
| Model | This Week | Week(%)  | FY 2019     | FY(%)   |
--------------------------------------------------------
| Switch| 987,179   | 91.0%    | 9,525,168   | 66.9%   |
| PS4   | 91,081    | 8.4%     | 4,153,111   | 29.2%   |
| 3DS   | 4,085     | 0.4%     | 345,192     | 2.4%    |
| Vita  | 1,854     | 0.2%     | 182,095     | 1.3%    |
| ETC   | 665       | 0.1%     | 25,581      | 0.2%    |
--------------------------------------------------------
| Total | 1,084,864 | 100.0%   | 14,231,147  | 100.0%  |
--------------------------------------------------------
HARDWARE
Code:
-------------------------------------------------------------
| Model      | This Week | Week(%)  | FY 2019     | FY(%)   |
-------------------------------------------------------------
| Switch     | 106,808   | 54.5%    | 1,777,084   | 58.2%   |
| Switch Lite| 79,854    | 40.8%    | 646,710     | 21.2%   |
| PS4        | 7,942     | 4.1%     | 535,833     | 17.6%   |
| 3DS        | 1,162     | 0.6%     | 82,782      | 2.7%    |
| ETC        | 56        | 0.0%     | 4,325       | 0.1%    |
| Vita       | 11        | 0.0%     | 5,849       | 0.2%    |
-------------------------------------------------------------
| Total      | 195,833   | 100.0%   | 3,052,583   | 100.0%  |
-------------------------------------------------------------
Dengeki Online Sales: Week 46, 2019 (Nov 11 - Nov 17)
 

ZSaberLink

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,677
Now that I look the dates next Media Create thread marks 10 years from when I took over the creation of them.

Many things changed to the best since them and some remained the same. Time flies.
Thanks for the amazing threads Chris! We all appreciate it a ton and it's the reason I even started visiting the old site and continue visiting this one.

Great job as always.
Unfortunately, since this is Famitsu, we're missing numbers for older games that can still sell outside of the charts.

For example: titles such as Puyo Puyo Tetris, Snipperclips and the first Sumikko Gurashi crossed the 100k mark, but Famitsu will never report about them. Also, even if not as big as elsewhere, digital sales are a component not properly tracked (not even including vouchers-affected games, see Octopath Traveler's situation). It's an incomplete picture, but not your fault, Piston.

Also, I can't thank enough Chris1964 for the 10-years-long hard work in creating Media Create threads.
Perhaps doing this chart for Dengeki would give us a bit more insight on the low-end sales, but honestly this chart is probably more than enough :)
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
Sure, my initial respond was just that i think we'd still have a pretty big gaming industry today, because i think someone else would have grabbed people's attention and time instead, based on that people are interested in gaming in general. And sure, Nintendo isnt stopping anyone from creating big franchises, but any big franchise existing means more competition.
Why is Final Fantasy declining generation after generation in Japan? Is it because competition?
Why did the Gran Turismo series collapsed in sales from the peak on PS1? Is it because competition?
Are Nintendo big sellers damaging the sales of Minecraft on Switch?

The reality is that nowadays a game can sell 1 million units in Japan only if it can catch the interest of the mass market.
The reason why japanese publishers struggle to achieve such high sales in their home land is because of their inability to create such exciting experiences.

That's why I don't understand how you can believe the absence of Nintendo would automatically help other japanese publishers to create games that are hugely popular, if anything the current situation would make me think the opposite (third-party output is frankly stale and conservative).
Nintendo is simply too good (to entice the mass market in Japan) compared the rest of the japanese publishers.

EDIT:
What I'm trying to say is that there is no guarantee that another company that was in the same position as Nintendo in the late '80s would have grow the company and shape up the company's DNA in the same way as Nintendo did which is a necessary condition for the big sellers we have nowadays on Switch.
Sega's management certainly didn't have the capabilities and it's not by chance that their downfall, after the brief taste of worldwide success in the console business, happened so quickly.
 
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Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,165
Great job as always.
Unfortunately, since this is Famitsu, we're missing numbers for older games that can still sell outside of the charts.

For example: titles such as Puyo Puyo Tetris, Snipperclips and the first Sumikko Gurashi crossed the 100k mark, but Famitsu will never report about them. Also, even if not as big as elsewhere, digital sales are a component not properly tracked (not even including vouchers-affected games, see Octopath Traveler's situation). It's an incomplete picture, but not your fault, Piston.
For sure, just as an example, Nintendo had somewhere over 40 million units of software shipped in Japan as of Q2 of this fiscal year and the known Famitsu data only shows just over 30 million currently. That is a mix of games with no updates for legacy sales and digital making up over 10 million units that would definitely smooth over some of the gaps and the decline in physical software from previous generations... though the Switch is keeping up with the 3DS pretty well so far.
Curious about what that mystery playable Capcom title at Jump Festa will be.
I am praying to the Phoenix Wright gods.
 

Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,681
SalesERA and Nintendo Speculation ERA are the only things keeping me on this site. Without them I would have never joined so thanks for that.
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
CheeseMeister was the first that put serious effort at creating Media Create threads, everything was amateurish before. With archives and available databases, situation is very different from the darkness we were a decade ago.
 

test_account

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,645
Why is Final Fantasy declining generation after generation in Japan? Is it because competition?
Why did the Gran Turismo series collapsed in sales from the peak on PS1? Is it because competition?
Are Nintendo big sellers damaging the sales of Minecraft on Switch?

The reality is that nowadays a game can sell 1 million units in Japan only if it can catch the interest of the mass market.
The reason why japanese publishers struggle to achieve such high sales in their home land is because of their inability to create such exciting experiences.

That's why I don't understand how you can believe the absence of Nintendo would automatically help other japanese publishers to create games that are hugely popular, if anything the current situation would make me think the opposite (third-party output is frankly stale and conservative).
Nintendo is simply too good (to entice the mass market in Japan) compared the rest of the japanese publishers.

EDIT:
What I'm trying to say is that there is no guarantee that another company that was in the same position as Nintendo in the late '80s would have grow the company and shape up the company's DNA in the same way as Nintendo did which is a necessary condition for the big sellers we have nowadays on Switch.
Sega's management certainly didn't have the capabilities and it's not by chance that their downfall, after the brief taste of worldwide success in the console business, happened so quickly.
I think maybe theres a bit misunderstanding, so let me clearify. I agree with what you say in the edit. I'm not really a strong believer that if Nintendo didnt enter the gaming industry, that everyone else would automatically replace them in the same popularity and fashion. I think that would be very hard to replicate. But i can see why you think i was saying that based on what i wrote, maybe i could have written it more clearly. I just meant to say that we couldnt know who things would have been for sure, and i also said "thats also possible" in my initial reply to what you first wrote, so i wasnt trying to argue heavily towards one side. Its just a hypothetical sitation afterall :) I also edited my post a bit right before you replied, adding that i agree with you that i dont think anyone could just replicate Nintendo. Creating interesting content requires talent and isnt something that is a given, indeed.

What i was thinking about was more about that theres always something thats the most popular things. If e.g Mario didnt exist, would those people not play anything else? This is the type of competition i was thinking about. Same thing with Final Fantasy as you mention, you're right that one reason is because people dont find it that interesting anymore due to the content, but have those people moved to something else or simply cut down on their total amount of gaming (which would otherwise go to playing Final Fantasy games)? Do you see what i mean? That said, its no guarantee that if something else existed instead, that this game would have just the same amount of players of course :)

If one of the big players (Nintendo or Sony) never entered the gaming industry, i'm not sure that the situation would be exactly like it is today, only that one of the brands are removed. Maybe many of the creative people that now works for Nintendo would still pursure a career within the gaming industry. But again, i dont want this to sound like i'm downplaying anything what Nintendo has done. I'm not trying to do that at all. Its just purely a hypothetical situation that never happened. I grew up with NES, and that is one of my favorite system of all time. There is no doubt that Nintendo has contributed a lot to the gaming industry overall.
 
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AniHawk

No Fear, Only Math
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,162
Isn't Detective Pikachu 2 coming out soon, maybe even next year? How did the OG sell in Japan?

the detective pikachu audience, which isn't very big, probably already bought into switch between the first detective pikachu game, pokemon let's go, and pokemon sw/sh.

How could you say there will be Nothing in second half of 2020? We don't have any information about upcoming games

most of the audience-builders are already on switch. it already has the audience that likes 3d zelda, 2d zelda, 3d mario, splatoon, smash bros., pokemon, mario kart, etc. animal crossing is the last big franchise nintendo has yet to introduce on the platform (and it will be a staggering eight year since the last major release). perhaps a true new 2d mario platformer could also do the trick, but botw2 won't move the needle, and neither would smo2 or anything else of the sort. 2020 will enter the stage of the switch's life where hardware boosts will come from revisions, price drops, and collectible console editions. 2020 should be good for switch - and 15m seems like a safe bet for it by the end of 2020, but as third-parties jump on the ps5 train (even if it's a really bad idea), it'll see lesser sales in 2021. 2022 would be a good place for a revision - making a handheld that can act like a portable ps4 (and why not? it will have been 8-9 years since the release of that platform) in order to get ps5/xb4 multiplatform games.
 

ZSaberLink

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,677
the detective pikachu audience, which isn't very big, probably already bought into switch between the first detective pikachu game, pokemon let's go, and pokemon sw/sh.



most of the audience-builders are already on switch. it already has the audience that likes 3d zelda, 2d zelda, 3d mario, splatoon, smash bros., pokemon, mario kart, etc. animal crossing is the last big franchise nintendo has yet to introduce on the platform (and it will be a staggering eight year since the last major release). perhaps a true new 2d mario platformer could also do the trick, but botw2 won't move the needle, and neither would smo2 or anything else of the sort. 2020 will enter the stage of the switch's life where hardware boosts will come from revisions, price drops, and collectible console editions. 2020 should be good for switch - and 15m seems like a safe bet for it by the end of 2020, but as third-parties jump on the ps5 train (even if it's a really bad idea), it'll see lesser sales in 2021. 2022 would be a good place for a revision - making a handheld that can act like a portable ps4 (and why not? it will have been 8-9 years since the release of that platform) in order to get ps5/xb4 multiplatform games.
At least for Japan, would a Tomodachi, Rhythm Heaven, or Style Savvy help a bit? Those haven't hit Switch right? I agree though.

Also I'd argue the decline in the gaming industry in Japan is largely the fact that Japanese publishers outside of Nintendo are rarely trying new things.

New Ips / new spinoffs in recent memory
Nintendo
- Splatoon
- Mario Maker
- ARMS
- Ring Fit
- Labo
- Codename Steam
- Ever Oasis
- 1-2 Switch
- Detective Pikachu
- Hyrule / FE Warriors
Astral Chain

Square Enix
- Bravely Default
- Octopath
- DQHeroes
- DQBuilders
World of FF

Level 5
Yokai Watch
Snack World
Lady Layton

Marvelous
Daemon x Machina

Capcom
- MH Stories

Namco
- Ninja Box
- Billion Road
- Doraemon x Story of Seasons crossover (kind of barely counts)

Koei Tecmo
Nioh
Toukiden?

Sony
Death Stranding
Gravity Rush
Last Guardian

Just think about how many new IPs were being released constantly in previous gens. Not all of these were hits in JP, but it all helps.
 
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Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
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I agree with you that "what if" scenarios are just speculation and shouldn't be taken too seriously :-)

What i was thinking about was more about that theres always something thats the most popular thing. If e.g Mario didnt exist, would those people not play anything else? This is the type of competition i was thinking about. People go to what exist, naturally.
This is a bit tricky question to answer.
What I can say is that Nintendo set itself apart from the rest of the industry, this is so obvious at the current point of consolidation (Nintendo big sellers have very little in common with third-parties big sellers be them foreign or japanese and Nintendo console strategy is the total opposite of that of Sony).
They carved out their own (big) niche which they dominate and upon which they impose their own rules.
So if Mario and Co. wouldn't exists what would the people that are currently playing Nintendo games on Switch be playing right now?
Well some are multi ownership players though I'm not sure that these would automatically buy a lot of more games if Nintendo games didn't exists because Nintendo possess a lot of genre kings (would a person who love Mario Kart formula, automatically be attracted by Gran Turismo only because they are broadly in the same genre? I don't think so the game structure of the two series are totally different. What about Smash Bros? Mario 3D? Mario Tennis? Animal Crossing? Tomodachi? and so on).
[I continue the discourse after your next quote]

Same thing with Final Fantasy as you mention, you're right that one reason is because people dont find it that interesting anymore due to the content, but what are those people playing now instead?
Maybe some of the people who was playing FF during the '90s and has obviously grown older in the meantime, now are just fine by playing short sessions on F2P smartphones games (with maybe some occasional Nintendo console games throw in to play during parties) or maybe they completely grow out of the hobby for more satisfying activities, in the end time is a precious resource when you are an adult with a family and a full time job (and that's why the core idea behind the Switch is ingenious).
But then what about the kids, the new generations who have a lot more free time than adults?
Well setting aside Japan aging population problem, I think that nowadays there are a lot more distractions than there was in the past and maybe the new generations aren't as entangled in dedicated videogame console games as they were in the past (because they are in contact with many of other digital entertainmets, like for example F2P smartphone games!).
Moreover the output of many japanese third-party games today tend to cater to older teens / young adults and people in the 20s and 30s.
What is the game publisher that is still successfully catering to japanese kids?

Without Nintendo the market would be inevitably poorer because Nintendo isn't just another game publisher, they are a world apart.
 
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