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Simba1

Member
Dec 5, 2017
5,383
Damn, Switch took over 95% of all hardware sales in Japan.
Was before some hardware that dominated so much in Japan?
 

Minsc

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,119
Soo..in 3 years then?

Yeah, I guess if it's a Fall 2020 launch, and after the 2020 holidays it drops to "regular" sales (past launch/holiday bump), it could be another 2 years after that before it sees a decent price drop and has enough of a library behind/ahead of it to become a hugely desirable console for all.

I also think third parties will jump to the PS5 very fast, and possibly push the little Switch support they've given it back on to the back burner as well, so that'll add up eventually too, when big release after big release skips the Switch entirely. But like you say it's all so far down the road, who knows what'll happen.

What was interesting was thinking about what Sony will do to reinvigorate the interest in their brand.
 

Deleted member 2791

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
19,054
Good hold for Pokémon. While we need more data points, this and the UK second week data show a trend of better legs than previous titles managed to have. This bodes well for a 15-16M shipment by the end of Q3 and 20M+ LTD.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
~10.5m units off the top of my head. PS4 has been ahead but momentum seems to have fallen off a cliff.
In the year corresponding to PS4's 2019 for PS3 (2012), the PS3 sold 1,327,185 units. PS4 should do a decent bit below that this year. Furthermore, 2013 for PS3 was 849.590, which I think will be very difficult for PS4 to do in 2020 considering the PS5 launches next year, in contrast to the PS4 launching in 2014, giving PS3 a bit more space to live on. It's definitely possible that PS4 ends up behind PS3, although I'm not sure yet.

schuelma you're right, I just wanted to give a quick response, and Namco is conspicuous due to their size. Capcom would be the worst supporter by far, but yeah, let's not discuss Capcom lol
 

Le Dude

Member
May 16, 2018
4,709
USA
PS5 is going to perform poorly out of the gate. I do think the transition to making games for PS5 will be relatively quick though compared to the last 2 playstation transitions.
I expect a ton of cross gen games. Persona V still released on PS3. I can see a lot of Japanese devs aiming solid 60fps 4K on PS5. 1080p 30fps PS4. 720p dynamic on Switch
 

Jaded Alyx

Member
Oct 25, 2017
35,351
FFVIIR should do insanely well in picking up interest, no? And the PS5 being the all-mighty unbelievable step forward it's supposed to be should be in a whole different stratosphere than what you can get on the Switch (4k, HDR, 120fps, Ray Tracing, next level SSD, etc, etc), so I bet it'll pick up the slack really fast (well by the first price reduction and must have AAA game anyway).
"120fps"?
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037


So Dr. Toto is saying there is still no stock for RFA? When are they gonna get this game fully stocked?
 

Andri

Member
Mar 20, 2018
6,017
Switzerland
Switch is like "... Yeah ... but hear me out, what i just start holiday mode at the end of November?!"
Nintendo saw that BF now starts the friday before BF, so they decided to Start Holiday season a few weeks earlier too.

That's an atrocious prediction what were you thinking?
Is making predictions that wont happen not kinda his thing ?

FFVIIR should do insanely well in picking up interest, no? And the PS5 being the all-mighty unbelievable step forward it's supposed to be should be in a whole different stratosphere than what you can get on the Switch (4k, HDR, 120fps, Ray Tracing, next level SSD, etc, etc), so I bet it'll pick up the slack really fast (well by the first price reduction and must have AAA game anyway).
MHW IB didnt fix PS4s atrocious baseline, so FF7R wont do much better.
PS5 being a decent PC wont help it in the Japanese market imo.

So Switch realistically has 14+ months of essentially no competition in Japan.
It has 14 months of having the market to itself, then we can see if PS5 can maintain the sales PS4 had.
Actual competition would need something that can wrest substantial marketshare from Switch, and i dont think anything besides Vita 2 could do so, and i dont think Vita will ever return.
Sony seems pretty content to stagnate in Japan while their overseas business does good.
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
In the year corresponding to PS4's 2019 for PS3 (2012), the PS3 sold 1,327,185 units. PS4 should do a decent bit below that this year. Furthermore, 2013 for PS3 was 849.590, which I think will be very difficult for PS4 to do in 2020 considering the PS5 launches next year, in contrast to the PS4 launching in 2014, giving PS3 a bit more space to live on. It's definitely possible that PS4 ends up behind PS3, although I'm not sure yet.

schuelma you're right, I just wanted to give a quick response, and Namco is conspicuous due to their size. Capcom would be the worst supporter by far, but yeah, let's not discuss Capcom lol

Thanks.

Bamco gets singled out because they are both the biggest third party in Japan, and in general release the most games out of the major players.
 

Vinnk

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,969
Japan
Is the PS4 at risk of falling behind the PS3 at this rate?

I think now that the Switch and PS5 announcement have happened there is a very good chance the PS4 will sell less than the PS3.

I can see a bump for FFVII remake but not a massive one. I think a lot of the die hard FF fans picked up a PS4 already for games like FFXV or FFXIV. And those who are more casual and are curious about the FFVII remake for the sake of nostalgia can get a used PS4 for under 17000yen.
 

Dark Cloud

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
61,087
Why is there a post spoiling a boss battle for Ring Fit Adventure in this topic? I didn't come in here to see spoilers.
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,487
I still don't think its fair to always single out Namco on support. If SD Gundam hits 100K, Namco will have the majority of 100K sellers this year. If Namco apathetic, what are other companies?

Bamco's support has been shit vs their total output. And it is almost always late too. They deserve to be dragged. As does every other company bar maybe Koei.

We can see all the stuff that skips the Switch for no reason. Every holiday the Switch is a barren wasteland for third party releases. Japanese third parties suck on Switch.

Bamco has had successes like Fishing Spirits and Taiko but still way too much content missing.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
~10.5m units off the top of my head. PS4 has been ahead but momentum seems to have fallen off a cliff.
The longer they take the less likly it is to happen.

PS4 recent performance are awful. It is worse than a natural decline. They were selling 20k+ at the same time last year, now there are in the 5k-10k range.
 

Starphanluke

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Nov 15, 2017
7,331
I just... don't understand why hardware is flat? What could have caused that? Crazy impressive.
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
should we expect sales next week to drop, increase, or stay flat?

I know week 48 sales usually increase but i think it's kinda hard to say this time.
 

Lite_Agent

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,572
Somewhere. I think.
Past two weeks and holiday seasons in a nutshell:

we-bought-japantsj8p.jpg


Next week Sony should announce their holiday offer, let's see how aggressive they get this time around.
 

DarkDetective

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,906
The Netherlands
Prediction for Nintendo Switch full year hardware sales
(all NSW models combined; predict the cumulative sales number of Week 1, 2019 through Week 52, 2019 per Famitsu)

Andri - 4.882.041
DarkDetective - 5.140.000
Ikaben - 4.446.000
Lelouch0612 - 5.000.000
Ryng Manuel Tolu - 4.750.000
Zedark - 4.725.000
 
Last edited:

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
Bamco's support has been shit vs their total output. And it is almost always late too. They deserve to be dragged. As does every other company bar maybe Koei.

We can see all the stuff that skips the Switch for no reason. Every holiday the Switch is a barren wasteland for third party releases. Japanese third parties suck on Switch.

Bamco has had successes like Fishing Spirits and Taiko but still way too much content missing.

Ok. I agree they should be criticized for ignoring Switch with their high profile, core-oriented releases. But I continue to believe some of the disconnect is this board not being personal fans of the games Namco is releasing on Switch and seeing success with. Namco has 4 Switch exclusives this year that will sell 100K plus. The problem is no one in this thread is personally interested in them so they don't resonate.
 

Minsc

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,119
Let him have this. Reality will hit in about a year.

Oh I don't think every game will be 120fps by any means, but with HDTVs having 4k be common place now at the $100-200 price point, I think the recent thread in the gaming forum about the best HDTV on the market right now being the LG C9 OLED is pretty telling, with one of the biggest draws (after picture quality) being the fact it can do 4k 144hz VRR (variable refresh rate) – which i think HDTVs will start adopting as a standard feature next. So I do think the next round of consoles will also support free sync of some sort, and it'll be a bigger deal in the games.

You won't have to have games at locked framerates because with free sync you don't notice the fluctuation like you do normally, so the number of games supporting above 60fps I think will definitely grow and grow.
 

shinken

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,917
Check post #37

That's a bit of an understatement :P
HW sales beasting.
Switch a good 1m ahead YOY, and only 100k away from full YTD 2018.
Every sale after next week will be pure net growth YOY.


Pokemon did better than expected.

Pretty good for shovelware tbh...

Once again quite the difference compared to the MC blog leak.
Basically 3 is flat compared to the rerelease of 1+2 when comparing famitsu to famitsu.
Thanks. Very similar drop, but damn, X/Y was beasting, a million more in its second week.
 

Andri

Member
Mar 20, 2018
6,017
Switzerland
What are the chances that Switch HW is 100k next week ?

Prediction for Nintendo Switch full year hardware sales
(all NSW models combined; predict the cumulative sales number of Week 1, 2019 through Week 52, 2019 per Famitsu)

DarkDetective - 5.140.000
Lelouch0612 - 5.000.000

Andri- 4.882.041

Just one switch more than what 3ds sold in 2013.

Thanks. Very similar drop, but damn, X/Y was beasting, a million more in its second week.

We know FW Digital was over 650k, while digital on 3ds was basically a rounding error.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Chris1964 usually Week 48 > Week 47, can we expect the same thing this year ? The fact that the Switch is flat WoW is really throwing me off this time.
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,487
Ok. I agree they should be criticized for ignoring Switch with their high profile, core-oriented releases. But I continue to believe some of the disconnect is this board not being personal fans of the games Namco is releasing on Switch and seeing success with. Namco has 4 Switch exclusives this year that will sell 100K plus. The problem is no one in this thread is personally interested in them so they don't resonate.
Ok. I agree they should be criticized for ignoring Switch with their high profile, core-oriented releases. But I continue to believe some of the disconnect is this board not being personal fans of the games Namco is releasing on Switch and seeing success with. Namco has 4 Switch exclusives this year that will sell 100K plus. The problem is no one in this thread is personally interested in them so they don't resonate.

Bamco is the biggest third party who releases the most games in Japan. The fact that they have some success on the Switch with some titles like Fishing Spirits (what else did they even release? Story of Seasons, Dragon Ball Heroes and what else) doesn't shield them from a glaring lack of presense on the Switch compared to other systems.

I don't get this whole "well you don't care about these games so you're blind to it" thing you push. Is there or is there not significant content skipping the Switch it really shouldn't miss? And are Bamco not one of the biggest offenders of the late port?
 

WRC

Member
Oct 28, 2017
144
The gap between last year Switch HW sales and this week correlates of SW Lite + Pokemon not dropping too much, expect the next week to be up again.
 

Vinnk

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,969
Japan
PS4 is still 270k ahead and should increase the lead over the next few months!

Why is that? The lead has been declining for weeks. Other than FFVII is there something that you expect to give the PS4 a big boost? The PS3 at this point in it's life cycle still had a somewhat solid year of sales in front of it (8000,000+) I don't think the PS4, at this point, has the 2 million sales it will need to beat the PS3 left in it.