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DarkDetective

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,906
The Netherlands
Prediction for Nintendo Switch full year hardware sales
(all NSW models combined; predict the cumulative sales number of Week 1, 2019 through Week 52, 2019 per Famitsu)

Andri - 4.882.041
DarkDetective - 5.140.000
Dwebble- 4.930.000
dean_rcg: 4.460.550
DrWong: 4.887.098
Fintendo - 5.030.000
*Guaraná - 4.356.261
hannybunny24 - 4.687.000
Ikaben - 4.446.000
IronTed - 4.800.000
kjtc1979 - 4.790.000
KuwabaraTheMan - 4.875.000
Lelouch0612 - 5.000.000
Lichtsang - 4.900.000
Limabean01 - 4.823.712
Mr Swine - 4.895.750
Myriotes 4.747.474
MysticGon - 5.000.001
jnWake: 4.650.000
oracion - 4.050.000
Personablue - 4.650.000
PillFencer - 4.712.356
Ryng Manuel Tolu - 4.750.000
Sadist - 4.891.365
SinCityAssassin 5.011.011
The Poochy Kid - 4.850.000
Vern - 5.140.001
Welfare - 4.700.000
Zedark - 4.725.000
z0m3le - 4.960.000
 
Last edited:

Saicho

Member
Oct 27, 2017
669
Now that I look the dates next Media Create thread marks 10 years from when I took over the creation of them.

Many things changed to the best since them and some remained the same. Time flies.

Thanks for all your hard work and always unbiased opinion.

I didn't know that there are so many Magic Box regulars in here until today. That is so cool!
 

Nanashrew

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,328
I don't often participate but wanted to say thank you to Chris1964 and all the invaluable work you have done and continue to do for these threads and everyone else who also makes these threads worth reading every day.
 

Deleted member 26156

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 30, 2017
1,579
Prediction for Nintendo Switch full year hardware sales
(all NSW models combined; predict the cumulative sales number of Week 1, 2019 through Week 52, 2019 per Famitsu)

Andri - 4.882.041
DarkDetective - 5.140.000
Fintendo - 5.030.000
*Guaraná - 4.356.261
Ikaben - 4.446.000
IronTed - 4.800.000
kjtc1979 - 4.790.000
KuwabaraTheMan - 4.875.000
Lelouch0612 - 5.000.000
Lichtsang - 4.900.000
Limabean01 - 4.823.712
MysticGon - 5.000.001
oracion - 4.050.000
Personablue - 4.650.000
Ryng Manuel Tolu - 4.750.000
Sadist - 4.891.365
SinCityAssassin 5.011.011
Vern - 5.140.001
Welfare - 4.700.000
Zedark - 4.725.000
z0m3le - 4.960.000
Lets do this: 4.850.000, just about 250k a week for the rest of the year
 

Lite_Agent

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,572
Somewhere. I think.
Nintendo eShop Sales: November 21st to November 27th 2019

Nintendo eShop – Nintendo Switch

01./01. – Pokémon Sword (The Pokémon Company) [15.11.2019]
02./02. – Pokémon Shield (The Pokémon Company) [15.11.2019]
03./03. – Romancing SaGa 3 (Square-Enix) [11.11.2019] (launch offer, 20% off)
04./00. – Choujuu Giga Taisen (SilverStar) [01.3.2018] (currently 85% off)
05./10. – Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo) [07.12.2018]
06./07. – Keiji J. B. Harold no Jikenbo: Murder Club (mebius) [10.8.2017] (currently 88% off)
07./05. – Luigi's Mansion 3 (Nintendo) [31.10.2019]
08./New. – Arcade Archives In The Hunt (Hamster) [21.11.2019]
09./New. – SD Gundam G Generation Cross Rays (Bandai-Namco) [28.11.2019]
10./New. – SD Gundam G Generation Cross Rays Premium G Sound Edition (Bandai-Namco) [28.11.2019]
11./13. – Minecraft (Mojang / Microsoft Japan) [21.6.2018]
12./18. – Futari de! Nyanko Dai Sensou (Ponos) [20.12.2018]
13./16. – Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) [28.4.2017]
14./00. – Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) [28.12.2017]
15./17. – The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo) [03.3.2017]
16./12. – Groove Coaster Wai Wai Party!!!! (Taito) [07.11.2019]
17./00. – Undertale (8-4) [15.9.2018]
18./00. – The Stretchers (Nintendo) [08.11.2019]
19./00. – Hollow (Forever Entertainment) [06.12.2018] (currently 90% off)
20./00. – Fire Emblem: Three Houses (Nintendo) [26.7.2019]

Nintendo eShop – Nintendo 3DS

01./01. – Pokémon Crystal Version (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [26.1.2018]
02./02. – The Battle Cats POP! (Ponos) [31.5.2015]
03./00. – Dragon Sinker (Kemco) [15.2.2017] (currently 50% off)
04./05. – Dragon Quest III: The Seeds of Salvation (Square-Enix) [24.8.2017]
05./00. – Bonds of the Skies (Kemco) [11.10.2017] (currently 50% off)
06./06. – Minecraft: New Nintendo 3DS (Microsoft Japan) [14.9.2017]
07./00. – Pokémon Silver Version (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [22.9.2017]
08./07. – Pokémon Yellow Version Special Pikachu Edition (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [27.2.2016]
09./03. – Elminage Gothic 3D Remix (mebius) [14.10.2015] (was 50% off)
10./00. – Pokémon Gold Version (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [22.9.2017]

 

Lite_Agent

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,572
Somewhere. I think.
Finally, a statement regarding Ring Fit Adventure. They announce increased number of shipments towards the end of the year, while continuing to ship new units weekly until then.

www.nintendo.co.jp

『リングフィット アドベンチャー』品薄のお詫びとお知らせ|サポート情報|Nintendo

『リングフィット アドベンチャー』品薄のお詫びとお知らせのご案内です。

So as I expected, they're keeping things low for now, while preparing to go all out at Christmas and NY.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,739
Italy
RingFit will definitely miss the million mark by the end of the year if stock issues will be solved only by the end of the year. Perhaps it can sell 30k weekly until Week 50 or 51?

Anyway that's a huge seller during holidays because untapped demand will explode there.
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,171
Well LABO didn't sell all that well despite our lead up, might as well put out this exercise project with only a month an-oh fuck oh god oh geez oh fuck.
 

Lite_Agent

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,572
Somewhere. I think.
I'd watch a documentary about your work Chris1964 making this happening every week for the last 10 years. I'm here since 2013 and since then wednesday mornings are an habit to me already.
You've been a lot more 'talkative' these last months i really wonder why is that lol

Looking forward to the part about the Dark Era Of The Super Slow Computer Too Slow To Generate Charts. Don't remember when that was, but definitely like the current age of thread up within 5mn after data is out.

On the wake of Animal Crossing I also expect a new Style Boutique game (to help expand the female audience on NSW).

New Style Boutique is one of those Nintendo IPs that used to be quite popular, but are now stuck in some sort of limbo where it's not clear whether they're going to get a new entry or not (due to increased dev cost, loss of popularity over time, etc.). I think it's the one that's the most likely to come back on Switch (compared to the likes of Fossil Hunters and Art Academy), especially with Brain Training back (albeit in a limited fashion).

I guess that depends on whether Nintendo considers the drop in sales for NSB is due more to their milking the series on 3DS than anything else. A brand new, shiny entry on Switch after a nice break could be moderately popular, but at the same time, wouldn't be surprised if it stayed dead.

Time sure flies. Before that « The Magic Box » was my weekly sales provider (circa 1998-1999)

Wow, now that's a name I haven't heard in (sales) ages. Fun thing is, website is still up, and they still have some archives stuff (http://www.the-magicbox.com/charts.htm), but that's it. Also, their forum has some fairly recent posts in it, how bizarre.
 

hannybunny24

Member
Jun 25, 2018
537
Germany
Prediction for Nintendo Switch full year hardware sales
(all NSW models combined; predict the cumulative sales number of Week 1, 2019 through Week 52, 2019 per Famitsu)

Andri - 4.882.041
DarkDetective - 5.140.000
Fintendo - 5.030.000
*Guaraná - 4.356.261
Ikaben - 4.446.000
IronTed - 4.800.000
kjtc1979 - 4.790.000
KuwabaraTheMan - 4.875.000
Lelouch0612 - 5.000.000
Lichtsang - 4.900.000
Limabean01 - 4.823.712
MysticGon - 5.000.001
oracion - 4.050.000
Personablue - 4.650.000
Ryng Manuel Tolu - 4.750.000
Sadist - 4.891.365
SinCityAssassin 5.011.011
Vern - 5.140.001
Welfare - 4.700.000
Zedark - 4.725.000
z0m3le - 4.960.000
Let's try this: 4.687.000
 

z0m3le

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,418
Here is Full Context Furukawa from the previous Q&A before that:

"I don't think all games will move to the cloud right now, but the technology is steadily advancing. In the future, I expect that technologies such as the cloud and streaming will evolve further as a way to deliver games to consumers. We must keep up with such changes in the environment. On the other hand, I believe that our core value, the unique entertainment experiences that can only be achieved through the development of integrated hardware and software, will further increase in value. Delivering unique entertainment that only Nintendo can create will continue to be our top priority."

Same song and dance. Come on dude.
That's not local executed software, that is stuff like Labo and RFA. Integrated hardware and software just means software designed around unique hardware.
 

Mpl90

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,215
First day sell-throughs according to the blog

[PS4][NSW] SD Gundam G Generations Cross Rays - 70%
[PS4] 13 Sentinels: Aegis Rim - 50%
[PS4][NSW][PSV] Is It Wrong to Try to Pick Up Girls in a Dungeon? Infinite Combat - 50%
 

PillFencer

Banned
Nov 15, 2018
2,431
Thank you Chris, your threads and comments are also the reason I visit Era.

Prediction for Nintendo Switch full year hardware sales
(all NSW models combined; predict the cumulative sales number of Week 1, 2019 through Week 52, 2019 per Famitsu)

Andri - 4.882.041
DarkDetective - 5.140.000
Fintendo - 5.030.000
*Guaraná - 4.356.261
Ikaben - 4.446.000
IronTed - 4.800.000
kjtc1979 - 4.790.000
KuwabaraTheMan - 4.875.000
Lelouch0612 - 5.000.000
Lichtsang - 4.900.000
Limabean01 - 4.823.712
MysticGon - 5.000.001
oracion - 4.050.000
Personablue - 4.650.000
Ryng Manuel Tolu - 4.750.000
Sadist - 4.891.365
SinCityAssassin 5.011.011
Vern - 5.140.001
Welfare - 4.700.000
Zedark - 4.725.000
z0m3le - 4.960.000
PillFencer - 4.712.356
 
Last edited:

Simba1

Member
Dec 5, 2017
5,383
But the OG Switch is as handheld focused as the Lite. The Lite is cheaper but has obvious disadvantages that are even clearly visible for "mainstream" consumers. Price sensitivity is something other than blindly buying cheaper.

Lite is an option for extremely price sensitive users, or users that really appreciate the smaller form factor but other than that who would buy a Lite over a "real" Switch?

Not its not, first its smaller, lighter and more comfortable, also one of main points of handhelds is that they have affordable and lower price point, price point cheaper than consoles, OG Switch has price point of Nintendo home console not of handheld.

Lite is option for all the people that dont care about hybrid nature of Switch and want just handheld experience at lower price point.

But apparently, OG Switch (especially after revision) is still very good value and its still very popular even in Japan despite Lite is out.


The lite is not a good product in my opinion; too expensive to be cheap, too big to be easily transportable, too gimped to be a Switch, battery life too close to the original model to be an upgrade on that front.
It will sell ok during the holidays, but like I predicted before its release, it will remain below 30% of the new Switch sales after a year.
It's still great for Nintendo as those sales seem mostly additive to the flagship model.

And for that, 200$ is in my opinion too high; especially as even as a pure handheld, the lite is arguably worse than the flagship model with that battery life. 150$ would have been the sweet spot.

Lite is good product for what is meant to be, low price option for only handheld players.
$200 is right price, $150 would be too cheap for launch price point, not only that Nintendo would gave up of clear profit whithout any reason (they said they have same profit margin with Lite like they have with OG Switch), but also they would have less maneuverability space for price cuts later, for instance, I can bet that next year when PS5/XB2 have launch, OG Switch will be $249 while Lite will be $149.
 
Last edited:
Sep 24, 2019
1,840
[NSW] Yo-Kai Watch 4++ appeared today on the COMG preorder chart.
It has a solid 6 points which is the current baseline of the top 20.

COMG preorder chart is in general is back to a very boring state. The only active participant is Sakura Wars.
 

Arynio

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,235
Now that I look the dates next Media Create thread marks 10 years from when I took over the creation of them.

Many things changed to the best since them and some remained the same. Time flies.

Wow, 10 years already. I may not post that often here, but I've been a part of this since ~07-08. I'm always looking forward to our weekly appointment with the Japanese sales. Thank you very much for everything that you've done. Here's to the next 10!

I'd watch a documentary about your work Chris1964 making this happening every week for the last 10 years. I'm here since 2013 and since then wednesday mornings are an habit to me already.
You've been a lot more 'talkative' these last months i really wonder why is that lol

That's one of the changes for the best that he mentioned, hehehe!
 
Jan 10, 2018
7,207
Tokyo
Lite is good product for what is meant to be, low price option for only handheld players.
$200 is right price, $150 would be too cheap for launch price point, not only that Nintendo would gave up of clear profit whithout any reason (they said they have same profit margin with Lite like they have with OG Switch), but also they would have less maneuverability space for price cuts later, for instance, I can bet that next year when PS5/XB2 have launch, OG Switch will be $249 while Lite will be $149.

Let's have this discussion again 1 year from now, when the lite baseline will be 10-15K while the flagship model is above 50k. And when the lite sells 10% of what the flagship model does in the other regions of the world. As always, I'll be right; remember this message.
 

DrWong

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,098
Prediction for Nintendo Switch full year hardware sales
(all NSW models combined; predict the cumulative sales number of Week 1, 2019 through Week 52, 2019 per Famitsu)
DrWong: 4.887.098
Now that I look the dates next Media Create thread marks 10 years from when I took over the creation of them.

Many things changed to the best since them and some remained the same. Time flies.
Congrat' and thanks for your work!
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
Let's have this discussion again 1 year from now, when the lite baseline will be 10-15K while the flagship model is above 50k. And when the lite sells 10% of what the flagship model does in the other regions of the world. As always, I'll be right; remember this message.
It's selling near 50% during peak holiday season where a large portion of systems are sold. That alone justifies it's existence since it's clearly selling to new buyers. Even if it dwindles and only shoots up during big releases it's doing it's job.
 
Jan 10, 2018
7,207
Tokyo
It's selling near 50% during peak holiday season where a large portion of systems are sold. That alone justifies it's existence since it's clearly selling to new buyers. Even if it dwindles and only shoots up during big releases it's doing it's job.

I literally never said that its existence wasn't justified. What's wrong with people in this forum constantly putting words in others mouth.
I said that it was in my opinion a bad product, for reasons I carefully detailed (too expensive, too bulky, too gimped, too short battery life) and that as a result, it would represent a small proportion of the sold hardware. We'll see how it goes in 1 year, but if you people want to argue with me, at least, make an effort and do it in good faith.
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
I literally never said that its existence wasn't justified. What's wrong with people in this forum constantly putting words in others mouth.
I said that it was in my opinion a bad product, for reasons I carefully detailed (too expensive, too bulky, too gimped, too short battery life) and that as a result, it would represent a small proportion of the sold hardware. We'll see how it goes in 1 year, but if you people want to argue with me, at least, make an effort and do it in good faith.
A bad product would perform poorly and not aid a company reach it's fiscal goals.

Sounds more likely you have completely different expectations to the product than Nintendo did when they designed the thing which is fine. It's a product clearly aimed at aiding and expanding the switch user base without harming or supplanting the main SKU.
 
Jan 10, 2018
7,207
Tokyo
User banned (1 day): hostility
A bad product would perform poorly and not aid a company reach i's fiscal goals.

Sounds more likely you have completely different expectations to the product than Nintendo did when they designed the thing which is fine.

Neither of us knows what Nintendo expected; though for a console supposed to "replace" the 3DS in some form (I know it's not a 1:1 thing), I think it'll do less than they expected.
At least, I predict numbers: in early November 2020, I predict that the Switch lite will represent less than 20% of the new Switch sold over a year. And this is well below what most people seemed to expect (at least here) when the lite was revealed.
And a second part: IN MY FUCKING OPINION (I don't know how many times I have to write that), the lite is a bad product, or a bad offering, as compared to the existing flagship model. Hence my above prediction.
Now, I was charitable enough to answer to you, but if you do not mind, kindly put me in your ignore list until November 1st 2020, and let's see if I was right or not.
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
Lite isn't meant to cannibalize OG NSW sales, its purpose is to add HW sales on top of OG NSW sales especially in conjunction with mass market games that strongly appeal to casuals (like Pokemon and Animal Crossing) who might prefer a cheaper Switch even if it is "gimped" of its USP.
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
Neither of us knows what Nintendo expected; though for a console supposed to "replace" the 3DS in some form (I know it's not a 1:1 thing), I think it'll do less than they expected.
At least, I predict numbers: in early November 2020, I predict that the Switch lite will represent less than 20% of the new Switch sold over a year. And this is well below what most people seemed to expect (at least here) when the lite was revealed.
And a second part: IN MY FUCKING OPINION (I don't know how many times I have to write that), the lite is a bad product, or a bad offering, as compared to the existing flagship model. Hence my above prediction.
Now, I was charitable enough to answer to you, but if you do not mind, kindly put me in your ignore list until November 1st 2020, and let's see if I was right or not.
We have full year expectations. According that the Lite seems to be selling well in regards to reaching them.
 

Vareon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,810
Let's have this discussion again 1 year from now, when the lite baseline will be 10-15K while the flagship model is above 50k. And when the lite sells 10% of what the flagship model does in the other regions of the world. As always, I'll be right; remember this message.

Even if this happens, what's the point? The Lite is additive to OG, without Lite the Switch sales would be 10% less in your scenario. It seems that you have in your mind a hypothetical device that should have sold closer or more to OG? You will of course be right, because you declared yourself what Lite should have been and what sales it should have, then pat yourself in the back when it doesn't reach your own written scenario.
 

Lite_Agent

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,572
Somewhere. I think.
Lite isn't meant to cannibalize OG NSW sales, its purpose is to add HW sales on top of OG NSW sales especially in conjunction with mass market games that strongly appeal to casuals (like Pokemon and Animal Crossing) who might prefer a cheaper Switch even if it is "gimped" of its USP.

Yup. I mean, a quick look at the key visual for the Switch Lite speaks volume as to the role of the Lite:

V1x2_NintendoSwitch_Combo_enGB_image600w.jpg


Not only the Lite isn't the only model on the pic, but it's not even the focus of it. And that visual has been used a lot.

It's clearly designed and marketed as an addition rather than a replacement, and it's selling as much. Nintendo played their cards the best way possible, by not only increasing overall sales and expanding the audience while still selling tons of the more expensive and profitable model. They now have an "affordable" model to broaden the audience, and they still haven't had to drop the price of the more expensive model. In other words, they still have the price drop card to play whenever they need it.

Of course, anyone that was expecting Switch to sell 100k/week outside of holiday season à la DS, and reach +5m YTD, was in for a rude awakening from the very moment the Lite was revealed.
 
Sep 24, 2019
1,840
Neither of us knows what Nintendo expected; though for a console supposed to "replace" the 3DS in some form (I know it's not a 1:1 thing), I think it'll do less than they expected.
At least, I predict numbers: in early November 2020, I predict that the Switch lite will represent less than 20% of the new Switch sold over a year. And this is well below what most people seemed to expect (at least here) when the lite was revealed.
And a second part: IN MY FUCKING OPINION (I don't know how many times I have to write that), the lite is a bad product, or a bad offering, as compared to the existing flagship model. Hence my above prediction.
Now, I was charitable enough to answer to you, but if you do not mind, kindly put me in your ignore list until November 1st 2020, and let's see if I was right or not.

Well in that one year the holiday season is included and the expectation is a 50/50 split. And that season represents a big part of sales for the whole year.
The lite has to sell atrocious numbers for the rest of the year to only represent 20% of total sales by November 2020.
WIth Animal Crossing hitting in March I just don't see that happening.
 

Simba1

Member
Dec 5, 2017
5,383
Let's have this discussion again 1 year from now, when the lite baseline will be 10-15K while the flagship model is above 50k. And when the lite sells 10% of what the flagship model does in the other regions of the world. As always, I'll be right; remember this message.

Even if that is a case, that goes nothing against what I wrote.

Talking about predictions, we still waiting for Splatoon 3 on current Switch. :D
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Looking at how the market reacts you can say that the flagship model is better than the Lite.

However, saying that the Lite is a bad product is nonsensical.
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
speaking of the database, any guess when will you do the updated version? I suppose it's still too early for a new one
I need to find motivation and extra free time for continuing the updates. Digital releases before 2012 have yet to been added and that's
not an easy work.

Comparing to the publicy available one, the notable differences are that a big amount of errors has been corrected, Famitsu digital estimates were added (and completely removed one month ago) and multiple Famitsu top 30s from before 1996 have been found with more to come. I can't give a date right now, it's been more than 2 years since I took it seriously.

I remember I started lurking more or less the same year. But I didn't join until 2012.

I appreciate all your work. Without you we didn't have database or anything and as you said we would be in the darkness.
Garaph was the first place that created a database.


That was the inspiration for starting, I took many data from there and geimin when I added Famitsu data later. In the beginning I wanted to make something with Media Create since no one was archiving their numbers with everybody focusing only at Famitsu. There was also Moor-Angols site that had system top sellers, shrine of data before him and and gamedatamuseum from Japan.
Road from NeoGAF stepped in at some time and did serious work but it's been years he's missing.

The only active places at the moment are here and GameDataLibrary with all Japanese sites shutting down.

If i start talking for the past I will need days.
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,487
I personally think the Lite is a bad product given the price, what it offers and the build quality. Thinking it's a bad product doesn't deny that its still an important part to the Switch ecosystem. It says that I also have an opinion as a consumer and not a sales analyst lol
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Thank you for putting in a decade of hard work Chris for all of us nutjobs!

Finally, a statement regarding Ring Fit Adventure. They announce increased number of shipments towards the end of the year, while continuing to ship new units weekly until then.

www.nintendo.co.jp

『リングフィット アドベンチャー』品薄のお詫びとお知らせ|サポート情報|Nintendo

『リングフィット アドベンチャー』品薄のお詫びとお知らせのご案内です。

So as I expected, they're keeping things low for now, while preparing to go all out at Christmas and NY.

Good, hopefully by the end of the year it'll see adequate stock.

I'm really curious what the WW Q3 shipment will be for this game. If it had been well stocked in Japan I would've guessed maybe somewhere around 3-4M but now I'm not sure if it gets that high.
 

Deleted member 31092

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 5, 2017
10,783
I bought a Lite yestarday after spending 2+ years with an OG Switch.

I don't know how you can say it's a bad product, it's so much better than the OG at being a portable console.
 
Jan 10, 2018
7,207
Tokyo
I don't know how you can say it's a bad product, it's so much better than the OG at being a portable console.

Too big to be pocketable and less battery life than the flagship model are the two reasons for which, in my opinion, the lite fails as a full portable console. The build quality is also questionable, though we'll see if one year from now, the drift issue is as widespread as on the joycons.
If the console had passive cooling (something many thought it would have when discussing the possibility of a fully portable console) and a better battery life, I would have found the 200$ price justified as compared to the flagship model.
As it is, I believe it's overpriced.