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hiska-kun

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,410
Hardware Sales YTD vs Last Year YTD
2018-12-05-22-09-56.jpg

Code:
+----+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
|    |       Switch 2017     |       Switch 2018     | Difference|
|Week|   Weekly  |     YTD   |   Weekly  |     YTD   |2018 - 2017|
+----+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 43 |   126.701 | 2.020.984 |    37.855 | 1.990.506 |   -30.478 |
| 44 |    64.387 | 2.085.371 |    43.747 | 2.034.253 |   -51.118 |
| 45 |    79.958 | 2.165.329 |    54.235 | 2.088.488 |   -76.841 |
| 46 |    86.999 | 2.252.328 |   200.850 | 2.289.338 |    37.010 |
| 47 |   145.200 | 2.397.528 |   108.375 | 2.397.713 |       185 |
| 48 |   124.770 | 2.522.298 |   120.546 | 2.518.259 |    -4.039 |
| 49 |   164.908 | 2.687.206 |           |           |           |
| 50 |   221.210 | 2.908.416 |           |           |           |
| 51 |   269.684 | 3.178.100 |           |           |           |
| 52 |   134.519 | 3.312.619 |           |           |           |
+----+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+

Code:
+----+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
|    |        PS4 2017       |        PS4 2018       | Difference|
|Week|   Weekly  |     YTD   |   Weekly  |     YTD   |2018 - 2017|
+----+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 43 |    24.653 | 1.384.697 |    20.639 | 1.325.534 |   -59.163 |
| 44 |    28.823 | 1.413.520 |    17.540 | 1.343.074 |   -70.446 |
| 45 |    26.058 | 1.439.578 |    16.081 | 1.359.155 |   -80.423 |
| 46 |    26.302 | 1.465.880 |    17.789 | 1.376.944 |   -88.936 |
| 47 |    26.909 | 1.492.789 |    24.364 | 1.401.308 |   -91.481 |
| 48 |    33.407 | 1.526.196 |    20.410 | 1.421.718 |  -104.478 |
| 49 |    85.687 | 1.611.883 |           |           |           |
| 50 |    62.965 | 1.674.848 |           |           |           |
| 51 |    67.257 | 1.742.105 |           |           |           |
| 52 |    49.631 | 1.791.736 |           |           |           |
+----+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+

Switch vs Wii
Weekly
2018-12-05-22-10-27.jpg

Accumulated
2018-12-05-22-10-13.jpg

Code:
-------------------------------------------------------------
|    |    Nintendo Wii   |   Nintendo Switch |  Difference  | 
|    |    (2006/12/02)   |    (2017/03/03)   |              | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |   NSW - Wii  | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
| 90 |   53.036|6.616.341|  200.850|5.601.957|    -1.014.384|
| 91 |   35.173|6.651.514|  108.375|5.710.332|      -941.182|
| 92 |   35.755|6.687.269|  120.546|5.830.878|      -856.391|
| 93 |   33.128|6.720.397|         |         |              |
| 94 |   29.686|6.750.083|         |         |              |
| 95 |   29.921|6.780.003|         |         |              |
| 96 |   26.314|6.806.297|         |         |              |
| 97 |   25.330|6.831.627|         |         |              |
| 98 |   22.877|6.854.504|         |         |              |
| 99 |   26.024|6.880.528|         |         |              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|

PS4 vs PS3
2018-12-05-22-09-37.jpg

Code:
------------------------------------------------------------- 
|    |   PlayStation 3   |   PlayStation 4   |  Difference  | 
|    |    (2006/11/11)   |    (2014/02/22)   |              | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |   PS4 - PS3  | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
| 248|   18.338|6.823.127|   17.789|7.269.347|       446.220|
| 249|   20.239|6.843.366|   24.364|7.293.711|       450.345|
| 250|   29.666|6.873.032|   20.410|7.314.121|       441.089|
| 251|   33.141|6.906.173|         |         |              |
| 252|   33.831|6.940.004|         |         |              |
| 253|   64.786|7.004.790|         |         |              |
| 254|   36.061|7.040.851|         |         |              |
| 255|   39.452|7.080.303|         |         |              |
| 256|   30.362|7.110.665|         |         |              |
| 257|   29.435|7.140.100|         |         |              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|

Minecraft Switch vs Minecraft Vita Edition
2018-12-05-22-10-48.jpg

Code:
------------------------------------------------------------- 
|    | Minecraft Vita    | Minecraft Switch  |  Difference  | 
|    | [PSV] (2015/03/19)| [NSW] (2018/06/21)|              | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   | Switch – Vita| 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
| 22 |   11.787|  291.927|    7.449|  365.347|        73.420|
| 23 |    8.073|  300.001|    9.818|  375.166|        75.165|
| 24 |    8.685|  308.686|   11.671|  386.837|        78.151|
| 25 |    8.355|  317.041|         |         |              |
| 26 |    7.379|  324.420|         |         |              |
| 27 |    8.244|  332.663|         |         |              |
| 28 |   10.770|  343.434|         |         |              |
| 29 |    8.164|  351.598|         |         |              |
| 30 |    7.574|  359.173|         |         |              |
| 31 |    8.544|  367.716|         |         |              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|

Mario Party comparison
2018-12-05-22-11-07.jpg

Code:
------------------------------------------------------------- 
|    |   Mario Party 9   | Super Mario Party |  Difference  | 
|    | [WII] (2012/04/26)| [NSW] (2018/10/05)|              | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------| 
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |   SMP – MP9  | 
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|  7 |   17.253|  417.643|   20.942|  345.627|       -72.016|
|  8 |   16.143|  433.787|   24.450|  370.077|       -63.710|
|  9 |   13.339|  447.126|   49.829|  419.906|       -27.220|
| 10 |   14.049|  461.175|         |         |              |
| 11 |   11.150|  472.324|         |         |              |
| 12 |    9.090|  481.414|         |         |              |
| 13 |   10.969|  492.383|         |         |              |
| 14 |    9.537|  501.920|         |         |              |
| 15 |    8.718|  510.638|         |         |              |
| 16 |    8.733|  519.371|         |         |              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|

Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII vs World War II
2018-12-05-22-11-26.jpg
 

Deleted member 18161

user requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,805
Good Switch numbers all around. Maybe a bit below what I was expecting for the end of November / start of Dec though. I guess next week we will see how many of the Smash Ultimate players bought their console before the game released rather than waiting!

Do Media Create count digital numbers for software unlike the rest of the World?
 

unicornKnight

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,187
Athens, Greece
Same is true in Europe: official price in the e-shop is €69.99, but retailers always sell at the regular €60 instead.
Yup and Smash will be the second Nintendo game at 69,99€.

PS: Hardware total has taken a significant hit YoY. Also switch sales last year were supply constrained no? That doesn't make current sales look any good.
 

Deleted member 2793

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
15,368
Makes me wonder if Go had more of an effect on the game, or if all the Gen 1-ness of it did.
Gen 1 nostalgia isn't as big of a selling point in Japan as it is in the west. Kids don't have nostalgia for it and later gens have more constant presence there than they had in western countries. I really never understood the whole "it will have better legs" argument -- feels like it didn't have any base.
 

Jbone115

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,742
The Media Create thread motto: Overrate Switch's sales potential and then declare it a disappointment.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Gen 1 nostalgia isn't as big of a selling point in Japan as it is in the west. Kids don't have nostalgia for it and later gens have more constant presence there than they had in western countries. I really never understood the whole "it will have better legs" argument -- feels like it didn't have any base.
The only base for it was the size of the install base, which is an argument that I don't think works for all but the most evergreen franchises (MK, and maybe Animal Crossing).
 

Strings

Member
Oct 27, 2017
31,413
11./11. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 6.469 / 1.172.750 (-6%)

Why is Zelda more expensive than every other switch title ?? Which most seemed to be priced at (¥5.980) ( Odyssey, Pokemon, splatoon 2 etc )
Just based on the size of the game. Was $10 more than a standard Nintendo published Switch release in Australia too (and every other publisher took that as an invitation to make it the standard price for releases :/).
 

Bruno MB

PAL Charts Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
956
Pokémon has been in steady decline in Japan since the start of previous generation with Pokémon X / Y.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
The Media Create thread motto: Overrate Switch's sales potential and then declare it a disappointment.
Being down year-on-year in this week is definitely a disappointment, especially considering last year was supply constrained. Switch just isn't pushing the numbers it should be currently. Maybe that changes once Smash Bros. releases, though.
 

Kingpin Rogers

HILF
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,459
Why were people expecting Switch to do more than 120k? That's up from last week and seems to be a really good number.
 

Deleted member 2145

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
29,223
great Switch sales. good stuff from the evergreens, nice bump for that joy con Mario Party bundle, BotW with the rain slip

curious to see the evergreens once Smash gets its opening week
 

Jaime.GGG

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,007
I can't believe the switch did better week 48 last year without pokemon, Mario party and the smash hype. Why Japan?
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Yup, every time.

I'm going to predict 2 million Switch sales next week so I can be disappointed.
If the switch doesn't sell a milli next week, it's a failed system
Don't be ridiculous. The reason why people are disappointed is because the numbers it's doing currently are down compared to last year when comparing the corresponding weeks despite last year's weeks having supply issues. HW is simply weaker than last year, which is definitely disappointing.
 

Adamska

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,042
Nonsense, Super Mario Party will do huge numbers during the holidays in Japan.

Mario Party has huge sales boosts during the holidays:
Code:
(Nov 5 - Nov 11)01./00. [NDS] Mario Party DS (Nintendo) - 234,708 / NEW
(Nov 12 - Nov 18) 01./01. [NDS] Mario Party DS (Nintendo) - 115,680 / 350,000
(Nov 19 - Nov 25) 04./01. [NDS] Mario Party DS (Nintendo) - 109,522 / 460,000
(Nov 26 - Dec 2) 06./04. [NDS] Mario Party DS (Nintendo) - 79,531 / 539,000
(Dec 3 - Dec 9) 02./06. [NDS] Mario Party DS (Nintendo) - 106,995 / 646,000
(Dec 10 - Dec 16) 01./02. [NDS] Mario Party DS (Nintendo) - 180,042 / 826,000
(Dec 17 - Dec 23) 01./01. [NDS] Mario Party DS (Nintendo) - 329,826 / 1,156,000
(Dec 24 - Dec 30)  03./01. [NDS] Mario Party DS (Nintendo) - 131,428 / 1,288,000
Huh, I wonder if this title will replicate that boost. Maybe other games will steal its spotlight though.
 

Strings

Member
Oct 27, 2017
31,413
Yup and Smash will be the second Nintendo game at 69,99€.

PS: Hardware total has taken a significant hit YoY. Also switch sales last year were supply constrained no? That doesn't make current sales look any good.
... Huh, not sure how I feel about that. They can definitely get away with it, but /shrug.
 

KillstealWolf

One Winged Slayer
Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
16,090


If Smash does well, that does feel like it will be the game that we decide whether the 20m Switches are "Likely to happen" or "Certiain to happen". At present I think it might barely miss it, but if Smash produces some incredible launch numbers world wide. That would change my mind into thinking switch will make it's estimates.

Unless the 1.5 was an overestimate from what I've seen, even 1 million to 1.2 million is nothing to sneeze it and is an exceptional launch number.
 

Aostia82

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,366
Don't be ridiculous. The reason why people are disappointed is because the numbers it's doing currently are down compared to last year when comparing the corresponding weeks despite last year's weeks having supply issues. HW is simply weaker than last year, which is definitely disappointing.


Yup: a lot of people were praising the flat Switch YoY performance, foreseeing a big increase in terms of Q3 (Oct-Dec) while so far in Japan this possible significant increase seems to be all on the shoulder of the last three WEEKS of the year (and consequently, its potential is way reduced)
 

Bunkles

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
5,663
Don't be ridiculous. The reason why people are disappointed is because the numbers it's doing currently are down compared to last year when comparing the corresponding weeks despite last year's weeks having supply issues. HW is simply weaker than last year, which is definitely disappointing.

It's down 4,000 units... lol

And we all know it'll be way up in 2018 compared to 2017. I'm not seeing the "definitely disappointing" angle here other than just for drama.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Yup: a lot of people were praising the flat Switch YoY performance, foreseeing a big increase in terms of Q3 (Oct-Dec) while so far in Japan this possible significant increase seems to be all on the shoulder of the last three WEEKS of the year (and consequently, its potential is way reduced)
It should be noted that week 1 is a very big week in Japan as well, so maybe when including that one things will look stronger (what with the Smash momentum helping that week be up notably, too), and in general Japan might have a very strong Q4 with Smash momentum and NSMBUDX (and maybe Fire Emblem? Probably Yoshi, though).
 

catashtrophe

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,111
UK
Looks like the road to 8 million for the PS4 is gonna be bumpy.

Is their anything on the near horizon that might boost PS4 sales?
 

DeuceGamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,476
Being down year-on-year in this week is definitely a disappointment, especially considering last year was supply constrained. Switch just isn't pushing the numbers it should be currently. Maybe that changes once Smash Bros. releases, though.

It seems like it just can't get over the hump. Makes me wonder if the price is currently the barrier and if we will continue to see it sell well, but just shy of the breakouts we are all waiting for.

What bundles are available and what are the current prices?
 

oracion

Member
Jan 7, 2018
695
Tokyo
Don't be ridiculous. The reason why people are disappointed is because the numbers it's doing currently are down compared to last year when comparing the corresponding weeks despite last year's weeks having supply issues. HW is simply weaker than last year, which is definitely disappointing.
I live in japan, supply issues hardly ever happened last year in December.
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,500
Switch number is mediocre. It should still be up YoY when all is said and done but that is not a good sign for the holidays imo.
 

Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,681
I used to be in the "Switch sales will explode this holiday season with this line up and enough stock" camp but seeing all the slightly disappointing numbers in the last couple of weeks compared to last year's it looks like Switch won't be significantly up from last year. But hey maybe a miracle will happen and we will see insanely good last 3 weeks of the year.
 

NotLiquid

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
34,764
The Switch number could be better but considering that number is about to see it's most notable bump next week I wouldn't want to read in too hard about the difference in regards to what it is and what people like to expect. Next week's numbers will show whether or not this can just be chalked up to statistical noise on account of people opting to buy week of release rather than two weeks ahead, and while yes, last year's number was better, people weren't awaiting a game like Smash to release back then.
 

byDoS

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,192
Price is holding the system back big time. I was expecting 150k.

I'm betting 180k next week.
 

Minsc

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,123
It seems likely that the biggest thing holding the Switch hardware back right now is its price... I imagine if they reduced it 33% or so, they could sell a lot more units than they are, I wonder how much longer it'll be before it gets a substantial price cut?

I guess you could argue a smaller & cheaper revision is also holding back sales, but I think it's just priced too high to really take off now that the release hype is worn off.

So next week are people expecting 300k+ sales for Switch hardware? Possibly even way higher than that?
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Here's the Switch hardware sales for the rest of 2017:

Week 49 = 164.908 (this is the Smash week)
Week 50 = 221.210
Week 51 = 269.684
Week 52 = 134.519
Week 1 2018 = 146.006

Week 49 should be up notably, over 50k at least. Then it will depend on the holiday momentum to see how much Switch will be up over 2017. I'm currently not confident it will be more than 300k up, though, which would be a 10% increase roughly. Not bad, but not the kind of increase needed to meet the financial forecast I think, leaving the Americas and Europe to pull more than their fair share of the task.
 

hussmk

Member
Oct 29, 2017
127
Pokémon has been in steady decline in Japan since the start of previous generation with Pokémon X / Y.

Bingo. X/Y and Sun/Moon are the lowest-selling mainline Pokemon games, and Pokemon Go had little impact on their sales unlike other markets.

It will be up to next year's title to take the franchise back to the GBA/DS peak levels.
 

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
I still think Smash is a pretty big unknown as far as its ability to push hardware. I agree that right now, this week was disappointing and I tend to agree that price is a limiting factor. But all of our analysis and discussion could be meaningless if Smash truly explodes.
 

Aostia82

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,366
It should be noted that week 1 is a very big week in Japan as well, so maybe when including that one things will look stronger (what with the Smash momentum helping that week be up notably, too), and in general Japan might have a very strong Q4 with Smash momentum and NSMBUDX (and maybe Fire Emblem? Probably Yoshi, though).

Yes, Q4 (Jan-Mar) is going to be stronger than 2018 one.
But so far Q3 has been weaker than expected. I remember maby predicting Switch LtD to possibly surpass the PS4 LtD within this year, and it's not that PS4 had a strong Q3 hw-wise so far.
 

Deleted member 2791

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
19,054
It is kind of ridiculous to completely change your expectations concerning the whole outlook of the holidays when it does 120k rather than 150k in one week. Like, can't you stop overreacting for once in the history of these threads.

30k less for HW is almost statistic noise level.
 

Jbone115

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,742
Being down year-on-year in this week is definitely a disappointment, especially considering last year was supply constrained. Switch just isn't pushing the numbers it should be currently. Maybe that changes once Smash Bros. releases, though.
It's pretty clear that the "traditional" Japanese gaming market has been waning for many years now, with all growth occurring in the mobile market. Maybe it isn't Switch being disappointing as much as it is the state of the Japanese gaming market being disappointing.