Even if they can't do that in the remaining three weeks they'll definitely outsell the Wii U by FY's end.
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Media Create Sales: Week 49, 2017 (Dec 04 - Dec 10)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
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Oh yeah, there's no question it'll be there by the end of the FY. We're talking calendar year, just for funsies.
FY will probably have it above or near 4M.
What other first years will they pass if they can get 4m+ this FY?
I'm trolling by saying it's better to have an installed base of 5 millions instead of 3? Really? Ok you're right I was probably but unwillingly trolling then never mind keep discussing your non nonsensical things, sorry to have bothered you all.
Also even being charitable it would take several months to get ports out and the Switch will be way over that number. Talking purely about Japan the Switch will be over any other hardware before this time next year.
Talking worldwide it will be above Vita by the end of this year and who knows where Xbox One is but Switch will be catching up rapidly.
I started this nonsense thing, so I need to be the one who close it.
I am sorry if you are offended by nonsense.
To put it in very simple terms, the support thus far and the support In the short term future, is determined largely by reactions to the reveal of the console....
This is the time when the console has a grand total of zero sales. Even competent ports (aka not broken, not terribly buggy) of moderate sized games need at least a year or slightly less, and this is from an authority in game development like Shigeru Miyamoto .
Your point doesn't hold up at all, because what we are seeing now is how the 3P saw the NSW early on or during its initial 2 months. They are being somewhat unreasonably cautious with NSW, and it is costing them the chance to both boost their own sales and boost the Japanese console market by supporting early what seems to be the likely market leader (who also has good sales in the west). This is why we are seeing strong HW numbers, but pathetic SW numbers for YTD in Japan.
It literally does not matter if it sells 3 million, 5 million or a billion at this point, the JP 3P slate now is decision made way before. The were overly cautious at launch (zero sales), and now they over cautious about the initial sales explosion (when Nintendo has no way of responding to unexpected demand).
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Don't play innocent now. Obviously 5m is better than 3m, but maybe 3m is pretty excelent by itself and way higher than what others did. I'm sure if your words were "The install base for Switch is growing at a good rate but I wish they would've supplied even more consoles" you wouldn't be facing any lashing, but we both know that's precisely what you were seeking in the first place.
No idea, maybe someone else has a list?
Nobody is arguing that an install base of 5M isn't better than 3M. Rather, the argument you seemed to be making was that third parties would be working even harder to port/develop/announce games if the Switch wasn't consistently sold out, or if Nintendo was able to supply another 2M this year, and I think that's the argument that isn't really backed up with much logic. It's selling as fast as it can in its current situation, publishers aren't looking at its current install base as a measure of how successful it is, they're looking at the rate of growth of that install base and the amount/types of software being purchased by that install base.
Basically all of the major players have said they've begun shifting heavily towards supporting the Switch, I'm not sure what else they could realistically* say or do to show their support even more heavily.
*Realistically meaning, a lot of these publishers are stretched thin and notoriously slow to react to change, so we can't really expect that to change overnight no matter how beneficial it would be (for them and us).
So I had a chance to follow up on this, and it looks like they did two things:
1.) They started handing out more free currency and currency boosters.
2.) They added a step-up banner, which is a banner where if you pull on it X number of times, you get guaranteed rewards of a certain quality level.
Basically, it appears they started being more generous, and as such people felt better about making purchases. A lot of mobile games have (and console/PC games overseas) have went in this direction to good success.
Isn't this a bit counterintuitive? If I'm given more currency I tend to spend less on my own. I think it's more due to thanks to events people come back to play and after they run out of free currency, they started spending. Or maybe peer/network effects.
I'd say Cathrine is fairly irrelevant in the actual discussion here. Wednesday will be fairly comical for the dichotomy it will present on the underlying problem of an industry run by frozen turtles caught in a time-dilated warp of a black hole.
It is simple.
More currency free means people have a higher chance to run up pity counters (if there is a mechanic like that). When they run out of free currency and the pity counters is still not "used up" some people will be tempted to drop some money to use it up.
Secondly, when a game is generous, people do spend to "reward the devs". Just look at the FEH OT and you see alot of sentiment like that.
Thirdly, more free currency means more chance of higher time spent with the game. The higher your engagement time, the more likely you are going to spend. This is the iron law of MTX, the more the user spend time on the game, the more likely they will eventually spend.
Just remember that the currency is literally worth nothing to the devs. Like fiat money, they are worth nothing intrinscially until they are exchanged for real goods (which, ironically, is fiat money in this case).
At worse, it is just investing income not made yet, for a chance of even higher income. It costs them nothing if it can increase real revenue.
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I'm still waiting for that 200k+ week............ should've happened two weeks ago... :/
The last one was very close to be 200k+ according to Famitsu.
Anecdotal reports suggesting 200k-250k this week for Switch:
I sort of agree on Persona, I think the main property and associated games from the Persona team will remain exclusively in the PS ecosystem. I think Team Zero's medieval rpg might end up PS4 only as well. Vanillaware might go PS/Nintendo multi in the future I think though as they tend to want a handheld presence, but it'd be after 13 Sentinels if it happens at all.
On the other hand your claim that Atlus' Switch support will reflect their Wii U commitment is wildly off the mark and the announcement of an exclusive SMTV already shoots that down. Much like PS4 absorbing PS3/Vita's focus, Switch will inherit Atlus' 3DS support meaning games from the main SMT team, the DS/TMS team, EO/PQ team, MD collabs with Chunsoft and so on. Switch could very well end up with more Atlus games than PS4 does.
What confuses me a little bit there regarding the PSV SKU of Catherine is the lack of Persona 5 Vita in the end.
When you look at what Atlus did, they built their Persona audience for the console first by releasing Persona 4 Golden, then by making the PSP games available on the Vita store, followed by an exclusive spin off Persona 4 Dancing.
I can get that for Persona 5 initial release it was most likely a strategic decision due to a lack of ressources eg. either a PS4 or a PSV SKU, and it made sense and completely paid off to choose the former after PSV failed to take off.
At that point (P5 PS4 SKU announcement) I thought they were more or less done with Vita, P4D came out but that was because that game had to be delayed due to development troubles and was close to be finished anyway so might as well ship it.
Then they went on and announced P3D and P5D "hum ok, a bit surprising but they're building on the foundations of Persona 4 Dancing so why not", they're probably cheap titles to make at this point.
And now comes Catherine the more surprising one, why even bother with PSV?
Considering it's a remaster with (a notable amount of) added content, I don't think development should have been that long for the title, which begs the question of "when" was a PSV SKU greenlighted and "2016" is the earliest answer I can think off.
Now regarding sales potential what could we expect of Catherine in Japan?
The original SKU sold 240k copies
I don't think there's any sign that the IP grew since then, it has been completely dormant and even if it could benefit from Persona growing audience for the last half decade I don't think it would be very significant, the PSV SKU has the benefit of being portable, but Persona 5 proved even in Japan than it was fine even without a portable SKU in the first place, so I tend to think that there's a lot of overlap between the different Sony hardware (something which is also confirmed by the numerous IP going PS3/PS4/PSV or PS4/PSV and yet didn't grow their audience)
So with that in mind, and the fact remasters tend to sell somewhere between 20-70% of the original game (and I'm being generous with the 70%) 170k would be the upper limit of what such a title could sell while 50k is the low end.
What does that leave for the PSV SKU?
Well latest multiplatform release with PS4 has shown that now the PS4 SKU (finally) took the lead, Catherine is not a multiplayer centric experience or anything which would especially benefit from being on portables so the game will be the exact same on both support in terms of gameplay, 20-40% of total sales is what we should be looking with the final result being dictated by how competent this PSV SKU looks.
In the end that gives us a rough ballpark from 10k (50k total sales, low effort PSV port) to 65k (170k total sales, decent port and marketing)
And that is... not much, especially considering those sales would have gone for PS4 for the most part had the PSV SKU not existed in the first place so we're back to my big question
Why bother?
The Vita is dying in Japan and completely dead in western markets, Catherine is not a project that needed to be saved by a PSV SKU (unlike Valkyria Azure for example) so again why?
I don't think in 2016 Atlus was thinking that Vita situation was going to improve two years from now, they couldn't have been that blind, so the only thing I can think of is that they still have an higher profile release to come later on, that could be Persona 5 Portable (that possibility never stopped to exist even if it was super low, let's say it went from 1% to a whopping 10%) or something else, but unlike the dancing games there's something which is a bit odd with this release there for me
When you look at what Atlus did, they built their Persona audience for the console first by releasing Persona 4 Golden, then by making the PSP games available on the Vita store, followed by an exclusive spin off Persona 4 Dancing.
I can get that for Persona 5 initial release it was most likely a strategic decision due to a lack of ressources eg. either a PS4 or a PSV SKU, and it made sense and completely paid off to choose the former after PSV failed to take off.
At that point (P5 PS4 SKU announcement) I thought they were more or less done with Vita, P4D came out but that was because that game had to be delayed due to development troubles and was close to be finished anyway so might as well ship it.
Then they went on and announced P3D and P5D "hum ok, a bit surprising but they're building on the foundations of Persona 4 Dancing so why not", they're probably cheap titles to make at this point.
And now comes Catherine the more surprising one, why even bother with PSV?
Considering it's a remaster with (a notable amount of) added content, I don't think development should have been that long for the title, which begs the question of "when" was a PSV SKU greenlighted and "2016" is the earliest answer I can think off.
Now regarding sales potential what could we expect of Catherine in Japan?
The original SKU sold 240k copies
I don't think there's any sign that the IP grew since then, it has been completely dormant and even if it could benefit from Persona growing audience for the last half decade I don't think it would be very significant, the PSV SKU has the benefit of being portable, but Persona 5 proved even in Japan than it was fine even without a portable SKU in the first place, so I tend to think that there's a lot of overlap between the different Sony hardware (something which is also confirmed by the numerous IP going PS3/PS4/PSV or PS4/PSV and yet didn't grow their audience)
So with that in mind, and the fact remasters tend to sell somewhere between 20-70% of the original game (and I'm being generous with the 70%) 170k would be the upper limit of what such a title could sell while 50k is the low end.
What does that leave for the PSV SKU?
Well latest multiplatform release with PS4 has shown that now the PS4 SKU (finally) took the lead, Catherine is not a multiplayer centric experience or anything which would especially benefit from being on portables so the game will be the exact same on both support in terms of gameplay, 20-40% of total sales is what we should be looking with the final result being dictated by how competent this PSV SKU looks.
In the end that gives us a rough ballpark from 10k (50k total sales, low effort PSV port) to 65k (170k total sales, decent port and marketing)
And that is... not much, especially considering those sales would have gone for PS4 for the most part had the PSV SKU not existed in the first place so we're back to my big question
Why bother?
The Vita is dying in Japan and completely dead in western markets, Catherine is not a project that needed to be saved by a PSV SKU (unlike Valkyria Azure for example) so again why?
I don't think in 2016 Atlus was thinking that Vita situation was going to improve two years from now, they couldn't have been that blind, so the only thing I can think of is that they still have an higher profile release to come later on, that could be Persona 5 Portable (that possibility never stopped to exist even if it was super low, let's say it went from 1% to a whopping 10%) or something else, but unlike the dancing games there's something which is a bit odd with this release there for me
I could be totally wrong though of course
In terms of hardware:
NSW >225K
3DS >45K
PS4 >35K
https://www.resetera.com/threads/me...2017-dec-04-dec-10.10934/page-30#post-2253747
earlier in the thread I made a post about what I expect in terms of software
NSW SW TOTAL >350K
Super Mario Odyssey >150K
Splatoon 2 >90K
MK8D >45K
Zelda:BotW >20K
1 2 Switch >15K
Arms, Pokken, Xenoblade 2 >10K
3DS SW TOTAL>450K
YWB2 >275K
Pokemon Ultra Sun / Ultra Moon >125K
I think YWB2 will open better than expected but still massively down, based on retailer charts for the launch week. Pokemon US/UM would be flat/slightly up but won't reach anywhere near YSO's predicted average of 170K. While SMO will be well above 100K I think with bundles it will do over 150K this week.
Yosuke Saito, producer, Square Enix
2017 was certainly up there as one of the busiest years of my life as a game producer, starting with the release of NieR: Automata, then on to Dragon Quest XI and the PS4 and Switch versions of Dragon Quest X and its expansion pack. Even so, it was really nice to be able to deliver great results for each of them.
To be honest, I'm really jealous of The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild, that is about to sweep the board at GOTY and all the other awards events. But hey-ho, I got to see how there are so many fans all around the world who love our games, so it truly was a happy year for me. Many, many thanks to all the fans!
Looking ahead, I hope my work becomes slightly less busy and I can achieve a better balance with my private life. Having said that, I'm really not the type who enjoys having nothing to do, so I hope I will have a chance to bring you news on a new title in 2018. Stay tuned, but don't get too excited ok!
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2017-12-19-2017-highlights
2017 was certainly up there as one of the busiest years of my life as a game producer, starting with the release of NieR: Automata, then on to Dragon Quest XI and the PS4 and Switch versions of Dragon Quest X and its expansion pack. Even so, it was really nice to be able to deliver great results for each of them.
To be honest, I'm really jealous of The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild, that is about to sweep the board at GOTY and all the other awards events. But hey-ho, I got to see how there are so many fans all around the world who love our games, so it truly was a happy year for me. Many, many thanks to all the fans!
Looking ahead, I hope my work becomes slightly less busy and I can achieve a better balance with my private life. Having said that, I'm really not the type who enjoys having nothing to do, so I hope I will have a chance to bring you news on a new title in 2018. Stay tuned, but don't get too excited ok!
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2017-12-19-2017-highlights
OP
OP
Iwata had said Japan was half million over projected sales at the time. You can calculate how bad 3DS missed expectations at west.
Ermmmmmm...fans around the world playing and love your DQX and XI yet? Lol
Seriously. DQXI could very well be my GotY if I played it. IDK. Depends on how good a DQ it is. Impressions are quite good though.
As to the Atlus thing: It would've been nice if Catherine were announced for Switch (it is weirder the game isn't even coming to XBOne tbh). It would've been nice to have evidence that Atlus might be breaking out of its "this is for PS" and "this is for Nintendo" in Nintendo's favor. That said, a) we don't know if this won't eventually happen anyway as Atlus ends 3DS/Vita support and b) I don't really expect it to happen after SMTV was announced as a Switch exclusive.
Switch will probably end up with the bulk of Atlus's work but probably won't get anything made by the Persona team or Studio Zero. That's my guess.
As to the Atlus thing: It would've been nice if Catherine were announced for Switch (it is weirder the game isn't even coming to XBOne tbh). It would've been nice to have evidence that Atlus might be breaking out of its "this is for PS" and "this is for Nintendo" in Nintendo's favor. That said, a) we don't know if this won't eventually happen anyway as Atlus ends 3DS/Vita support and b) I don't really expect it to happen after SMTV was announced as a Switch exclusive.
Switch will probably end up with the bulk of Atlus's work but probably won't get anything made by the Persona team or Studio Zero. That's my guess.
Looking forward to DQXI. Though, I get the feeling that if it finds its way on to a western Nintendo release, it will only be the 3DS version.
DQXI switch localization would have to be worked on concurrently with the version in order to have a chance of making it otherwise.
I wonder how much Square is expecting from DQXI Switch considering how late its release will fall
DQXI switch localization would have to be worked on concurrently with the version in order to have a chance of making it otherwise.
I wonder how much Square is expecting from DQXI Switch considering how late its release will fall
Yeah for all the talk in this thread of many publishers shifting their focus to global platforms... a lot of publishers- especially with DQ games- sure treat the west as an afterthought.
I mean, I get it, DQ does not tend to sell all that well in the west, but is that because SE treats the west as an afterthought for this series or because it doesn't appeal to western gamers? It's a bit of a chicken and egg situation when- as far as I know- they have never actually attempted to do a global launch for a DQ game.
Of course. Switch didn't sell 5 millions in japan and apparently it does not sell in the west /s
Not the Nintendoom cycle so much as soaring expectations for increased support meeting the reality of the Japanese industry that has long self-sabotaged and undercut the domestic market to the point where its survival came into doubt for them and us :P
We'll have to see how much this reality persists as Switch matures. We can hope that, like PS4 it gets strong Japanese support at some point. Or we can fear that, no, it won't, it is a Nintendo and when even core 3DS partners aren't on board, it won't.
I think reality will be between those two extremes and there will always be tension throughout the Switch's life as we are at times happy and at times sad about the support it gets.
This is part of why I don't think the DQ decision is purely about the west. I think Horii had a say and he wanted to make a PS4 game.
We'll have to see how much this reality persists as Switch matures. We can hope that, like PS4 it gets strong Japanese support at some point. Or we can fear that, no, it won't, it is a Nintendo and when even core 3DS partners aren't on board, it won't.
I think reality will be between those two extremes and there will always be tension throughout the Switch's life as we are at times happy and at times sad about the support it gets.
This is part of why I don't think the DQ decision is purely about the west. I think Horii had a say and he wanted to make a PS4 game.
I think the PSV Sku of Catherine (and all the recent/upcoming 3DS games) just show Atlus has no capacity to adapt quickly to market changes. The PSV is absolutely dead and the 3DS is quickly dying, I'm not sure why they're expending ressource on those platforms for 2018.
I think it's because it's been so long since a direct. Easy to Doom a company when you have no idea what they are doing.
This was obvious. This a company that released Persona 4 on the PS2 in 2008. Fast reaction to market changes are not Atlus forte and the being bought by Sega seemed to changed absolutely none of their modus operandi.
Probably because they can reuse a lot of code from the PS4 version, whereas a Switch version might need a full rewrite, which can get quite expensive.
And the 3DS game, they are probably milking their assets as much as they can before call it a day.
I tend to agree, 3DS had an amazing 3rd party commitment upfront and was really the last platform to do so in Japan. It shamed both PS4 and Switch comparably, but Switch is still ahead of PS4 generally imo.
If we look at what exactly was known 10 months in for a couple hotly contested 3rd parties:
Capcom 3DS
-Super Street Fighter IV: 3D Edition
-Resident Evil: The Mercenaries 3D
-Nazo Waku Yakata
-Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate
-Resident Evil: Revelations (announced)
-Professor Layton VS Phoenix Wright Ace Attorney (announced, published by Level 5)
-Monster Hunter 4 (announced)
-Mega Man Legends 3 (announced and canceled)
Capcom PS4
-Strider
-Resident Evil: HD Remaster (announced)
-Resident Evil: Revelations 2 (announced)
-Deep Down (announced, still not officially canceled)
Capcom Switch
-Ultra Street Fighter II: The Final Challengers
-Monster Hunter XX Nintendo Switch Ver.
-Resident Evil: Revelations
-Resident Evil: Revelations 2
-Mega Man Legacy Collection (announced)
-Mega Man Legacy Collection 2 (announced)
-Street Fighter 30th Anniversary Collection (announced)
-Mega Man 11 (announced)
-Mega Man X Collection (announced)
-Ace Attorney title (announced)
Level 5 3DS
-Professor Layton and the Miracle Mask
-Inazuma Eleven Go! Light/Shadow
-Girls RPG: Cinderellife (announced)
-Guild01 (announced)
-LBX: Little Battler eXperience (announced)
-Time Travelers (announced)
-Professor Layton VS Phoenix Wright Ace Attorney (announced)
-Fantasy Life (announced)
-Professor Layton and the Arzan Legacy (announced)
Level 5 PS4
-Wonder Flick (announced, canceled a year later)
Level 5 Switch
-Inazuma Eleven Ares (announced)
Atlus 3DS
-Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor Overclocked
-Sparkle Snapshots 3D (published by Nintendo)
-Etrian Odyssey IV: Legends of the Titan (announced)
-Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Summoner: Soul Hackers (announced)
-Shin Megami Tensei IV (announced)
-Persona title (announced, may have become Persona Q)
Atlus PS4
-Persona 5 (announced)
Atlus Switch
-Shin Megami Tensei V (announced)
Falcom 3DS
-lol
Falcom PS4
-Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of Dana (announced)
Falcom Switch
-lol, then crying
The support litterall came down to ease of porting DS titles to 3DS and the similarites between the two.
If the switch was a 4DS you'd see 3DS ports well into after it's successor had released.
You think so? I think a Switch localization is much more likely, especially if Nintendo foots the bill like they always do with DQ.
I think we'll see DQXI 2018 in the west on PS4/NSW. If we're lucky, we'll see the 3DS version, but that depends on if Nintendo wants to foot that bill too, because Square Enix surely won't.
Pretty sure all of those "announcements" at that point were just from the list where Atlus was listed as a publisher supporting the 3DS, with their planned releases including "Etrian Odyssey series", "Shin Megami Tensei series" and "Persona series". Even their enhanced port of Soul Hackers didn't come out until the 3DS had been out for more than a year.
Well hopefully they are just being more conservative with announcements this time then :). But I think we will see slower support. Part of that is perhaps just down to Switch versus 3DS hardware.
And finding the Switch EO successor would hypothetically take time.
And finding the Switch EO successor would hypothetically take time.
If DQXI wasn't coming west on Switch then I doubt NOA and NOE would be publishing Builders 1. It might come later but it'll come.
As is though the only DS port on 3DS early on was Devil Survivor. I believe EO4 and SMT4 both started development on DS however using the old EO/Strange Journey engine.
Falcom will be an eternal missed opportunity unless their publishing partners start doing ports for them and those ports sell. I'd like to see Dotemu test the waters with Ys Origin and then 6 months remark on it outselling their other ports combined. ;)
I wouldn't rule out some future Switch Atlus reissues though. Things like an expanded TMS conversion, a Nocturne HD remaster or maybe a Vanillaware port are all things I could see happening leading in to SMTV. 3DS ports are maybe less likely but remakes may start happening once Atlus has their UE4 dungeon crawling engine in place.
As is though the only DS port on 3DS early on was Devil Survivor. I believe EO4 and SMT4 both started development on DS however using the old EO/Strange Journey engine.
I still think Atlus will try to port some of their late titles to Switch, but they will be announced a few weeks/months before the SMT V date release. It's a big shift to being known right now as the SMT V's devs instead of just bring a bunch of old games.
Yes, SMTIV wasn't officially announced until around 15 months in so technically SMTV was announced earlier relatively for Switch. EO4 was announced roughly a year in.
Guys, guys, stop heckling about Atlus! The Switch is in stock!
https://www.amazon.co.jp/【Amazon-co-jp限定】【液晶保護フィルムEX付き-任天堂ライセンス商品-】Nintendo-スーパーマリオ-オンラインコード/dp/B07664L1VS/ref=zg_bs_videogames_5?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=JBKP7YMRAQ4FFHCG7BA5
First time I've ever seen it in stock on amazon.
Edit: And the grey sku of this bundle is in stock too, looks like I caught it just as it got restocked.
https://www.amazon.co.jp/【Amazon-co-jp限定】【液晶保護フィルムEX付き-任天堂ライセンス商品-】Nintendo-スーパーマリオ-オンラインコード/dp/B07664L1VS/ref=zg_bs_videogames_5?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=JBKP7YMRAQ4FFHCG7BA5
First time I've ever seen it in stock on amazon.
Let's see how many minutes it lasts lol
Edit: And the grey sku of this bundle is in stock too, looks like I caught it just as it got restocked.
Atlus main team isn't in the position where they could pump out cheaply made 3ds games constantly,making games for the switch is going to be longer and hd games usually cost more to make than 3ds games,and Career Soft guys being the only team from the main team that actually made a hd game before only make matters worse
That's because nobody wants digital version of Mario Odyssey. The Knack of Nintendo.
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