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Vena

Community Resettler
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,379
So... why did PS4 increase? The Pro increased due to the Monster Hunter console, fair enough - but there's no new console for the base unit. What's sparked that increase? The beta alone?

If you remove the bundle, which sold out months ago, the increase is fairly mum as this is holidays now. Last year, PS4 was driven by FFXV and price and a holiday boost kicking in, now its being driven by _____ and a holiday boost.

Right now, the holidays are a saving grace and the bundle is hiding just how low the actual numbers are.

Have you seen the number of releases for it this week? That was a given.

The numbers are bad, and the releases basically did nothing.
 

Boiled Goose

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
9,999
People are much more likely to want a party game to whip out randomly than they are to want a to invest in a new fighting game. Sure, it's not as good as Wii sports or the best Mario parties, but a fraction of that neglected party niche turned out to be greater than demand for a wacky new fighting game

Because 12 switch is a first party game, people are expecting a fun, wario ware like game. Great for parties.

Unfortunately, the game sucks. It's so bad I think it's an anti system seller. It's an outdated mini game compilation with little meat and it's also super slow and clunky, much like Nintendo land.

Overtutorialized mess. These mini games don't need a separate tutorial! Just a quick on screen popup. Learning happens during play and rapid iteration.

I hate this game so much and the fact that people are spending money on it vs other games. Nintendo should stop selling it and include it for on the system.

It might be the worst Nintendo game ever made alongside wii music.

Yeah I hate this game.. /rant

On arms. Not the best party game. It's a little too complex for beginners and in only party mode the two players rarely play together.

Switch needs a proper wario ware and a new good mario party. Right now the best first party local multi party game is mario kart.
 

silpheed-mcd

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,384
NastyWavyKawala-max-1mb.gif


Super Mario Odyssey 1 million at famitsu , 7 weeks and 1 million, good score :)

cTKrFbU.gif


02 - Super Mario Odyssey (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} – 945.721 + 63.538 digital = 1.009.259
https://www.resetera.com/posts/2085044/
 

Xbro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,105
We are uncertain of how well any of the xenoblade games have done outside of Japan. 500K is a safe estimate based on the last numbers we have.
 

Peace

Alt Account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
978
France
It's a shame, I find the discussion interesting, but some people can't refrain themselves to turn it into something else for whatever reasons. We're on a discussion board, it's fine if we don't agree, it's a part of the process.

This isn't really about you and feelings tho.

And you better be consistent with this reasoning cause if you don't apply this sort of bias to other games (selling better than predecessor but still a 'flop") cause I'm sure you will get called out on it if you don't.

Of course it's about my guess and my feeling about it, I'm speaking for myself and we don't have the numbers we need to establish fact about the game budget or the sales it needs to break even. We don't even have the sales numbers worldwide. Unless someone has the numbers to share, it will be everybody guess and "feeling".

And I said selling slightly better than its predecessor. There's a nuance here, we're not speaking about a groundbreaking difference.

yes but, you dont matter, this "flops" are already on its 3rd game which is the best so far among this "flops" so you are clearly wrong

To put it as bluntly as you, neither does the fanbase in this case. It doesn't really matter the game is on its 3rd game to me, I'm not sure Nintendo is hunting hard cold sales with this franchise.


Basically, are you insinuating that, Tetsuya Takahashi, who worked on Zelda BoTW, a game which needs to sell 2 million to break even, said that no Xenoblade game is AAA and they are AA at best. Zelda has been described repeatedly as an AAA. AA and AAA are almost always labels that talk about budget only. Takahashi says Xenoblade is AA at best. Can it be more clear?

Unless you are willing to say Takahashi is lying, which is a serious allegation....No amount of "feelings" from you changes the safe assumption that 1 million would have been a major success for any Xenoblade game.

No, I don't think he's lying, you're over-reaching. I just think AA aren't cheap to make either and that's exactly what I said : "I don't feel like XB2 is a cheap title to make", I didn't precise "AAA expensive" or something like that. It may not be as expensive as BOTW, but that doesn't mean it's cheap.

Breath of the Wild only needed 2 million sales to be profitable - a game that was Nintendos biggest ever development team + ran for what 5 years? This game was banged out in around 2 years with a fraction of those resources - if it hits 1 million it is certainly making good money

It may be not the best place to speak about that, but since we're using this metric to guess XB2 budget, I'll risk it. The problems I have with this :

- The source comes from a japanese twitter account, it's not like we heard it from Miyamoto himself or the company, unless I'm mistaking.
- It's hard to estimate the budget of the game properly since BOTW wasn't sold at the same price worldwide. In Europe, the game was (and still is in my country) 70€ in the eshop, it was 60$ in the US. It's isn't the case with XB2, the price seems to be consistant.
- The 2 millions numbers put the game budget at 100M and as far as the source goes, it doesn't speak about marketing, logistic and such. It's just dev costs, or seems to be.
- It was - again according to the source - a shareholders meeting, not the best place to get realistic estimations.
- Again, the quote doesn't come from Miyamoto or the company, it was reported by someone on Twitter, unless I missed a bit of the story (which could be and feel free to correct me if it was confirmed by Nintendo).

I remembered this 2M numbers for BOTW and I almost erased my post about XB2 thinking about it, but I also remembered the story was quite vague as far as I read through it. If I'm wrong, feel free to correct me about it.
 

chris 1515

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,074
Barcelona Spain
Ps3 vs Ps4 chart where?

Code:
|----|-------|---------|-------|----------|-----------|
| PlayStation 3        | PlayStation 4    | Difference|
|----|-------|---------|-------|----------|-----------|
|Week| Weekly| LTD     | Weekly| LTD      | PS4 - PS3 |
|----|-------|---------|-------|----------|-----------|
| 188| 17.676|5.200.862| 23.814| 5.354.809| 153.947   |
| 189| 17.175|5.218.037| 29.369| 5.384.178| 166.141   |
| 190| 19.578|5.237.615| 22.549| 5.406.727| 169.112   |
| 191| 20.077|5.257.692| 22.706| 5.429.433| 171.741   |
| 192| 18.345|5.276.037| 31.278| 5.460.711| 184.674   |
| 193| 19.473|5.295.510| 24.653| 5.485.364| 189.854   |
| 194| 19.420|5.314.930| 28.823| 5.514.187| 199.257   |
| 195| 45.224|5.360.154| 26.058| 5.540.245| 180.091   |
| 196| 28.630|5.388.784| 26.302| 5.566.547| 177.763   |
| 197| 33.057|5.421.841| 26.909| 5.593.456| 171.615   |
| 198| 29.433|5.451.274| 33.407| 5.626.863| 175.589   |
| 199| 25.053|5.476.327| 85.867| 5.712.550| 236.223   |
|----|-------|---------|-------|----------|-----------|

Sorry it is not very good but at least there is the difference between PS4 and PS3
 

v_iHuGi

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
5,155
Code:
|----|-------|---------|-------|----------|-----------|
| PlayStation 3        | PlayStation 4    | Difference|
|----|-------|---------|-------|----------|-----------|
|Week| Weekly| LTD     | Weekly| LTD      | PS4 - PS3 |
|----|-------|---------|-------|----------|-----------|
| 188| 17.676|5.200.862| 23.814| 5.354.809| 153.947   |
| 189| 17.175|5.218.037| 29.369| 5.384.178| 166.141   |
| 190| 19.578|5.237.615| 22.549| 5.406.727| 169.112   |
| 191| 20.077|5.257.692| 22.706| 5.429.433| 171.741   |
| 192| 18.345|5.276.037| 31.278| 5.460.711| 184.674   |
| 193| 19.473|5.295.510| 24.653| 5.485.364| 189.854   |
| 194| 19.420|5.314.930| 28.823| 5.514.187| 199.257   |
| 195| 45.224|5.360.154| 26.058| 5.540.245| 180.091   |
| 196| 28.630|5.388.784| 26.302| 5.566.547| 177.763   |
| 197| 33.057|5.421.841| 26.909| 5.593.456| 171.615   |
| 198| 29.433|5.451.274| 33.407| 5.626.863| 175.589   |
| 199| 25.053|5.476.327| 85.867| 5.712.550| 236.223   |
|----|-------|---------|-------|----------|-----------|

Sorry it is not very good but at least there is the difference between PS4 and PS3

Well not bad it's beating the Ps3, hopefully it can beat it LT.
 

Reki

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,955
Unfortunately, the game sucks. It's so bad I think it's an anti system seller. It's an outdated mini game compilation with little meat and it's also super slow and clunky, much like Nintendo land.

I agree with your overall point but Nintendo Land is amazing and includes a fair amount of content.
 

corasaur

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,988
I'd say Arms partly fits that bill too though, with its party mode, motion controls, local multiplayer and whatnot. It's also very colorful artistically speaking and I thought it would have a lot more appeal than a game that doesn't even require you to look at the screen. Not to take away from 1-2-Switch, it's just a bit sad it's not getting as many sales so far.
Fighting games are horrible party games, usually. Even with motion control, there's still a bare minimum of getting-beaten-up that makes trying to learn one a complete non-starter for someone just hanging out for an hour unless they already know that they love fighting games. The 2v2 and minigame modes don't appear to be visible enough to help get past that.
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,487
Wait what? I thought both XB and XBX sold close to 1M worldwide.

Hahahah. Actually though.

These games have people illussioned. They aren't great sellers and they aren't particularly expensive. They exist as library fillers. They are about engagement more than making lots of money. If Nintendo never made games like Xenoblade that dedicated portion of the install base that spends shit tons of money in their ecosysten is by nature less engaged.

These games are more about catalogue, consumer engagement and technology than selling big.

I think the first game really messed up people's expectations because ots a miracle it runs on the Wii and it was such a cult classic among gamers. This new entry will be the first with the shot at 1m
 

Kanann

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,170
then people will complain about how the game only sells because of waifus,anime and stuffs and then "worrying" about future monolith soft games,mark my words

Minor spoiler:
What surprised me was the game doesn't sell sex at all in story, okay it has sleeping scene and hot spring scene, but it has nothing sexual going on, also rate T and Cero for teenager didn't go for violent or anything questionable at all but just serious theme and tone of story and some little vulgar language.

Artists in this game just want to draw boobs and lewd outfits but writers not pandering on it.
What a hotpot. LOL
 

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,912
So uh, is the Xbox One S on Famitsu an error? 3,318 this week when Media Create has it at 406.
 

MysticGon

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 31, 2017
7,285
I'm hope Monster Hunter finds the success Capcom is hoping for. It's a big risk for them. But if it finds its legs it'll give Japan another big online-centric console along side Splatoon and even MK8D.
 

Mr_F_Snowman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,877
It's a shame, I find the discussion interesting, but some people can't refrain themselves to turn it into something else for whatever reasons. We're on a discussion board, it's fine if we don't agree, it's a part of the process.



Of course it's about my guess and my feeling about it, I'm speaking for myself and we don't have the numbers we need to establish fact about the game budget or the sales it needs to break even. We don't even have the sales numbers worldwide. Unless someone has the numbers to share, it will be everybody guess and "feeling".

And I said selling slightly better than its predecessor. There's a nuance here, we're not speaking about a groundbreaking difference.



To put it as bluntly as you, neither does the fanbase in this case. It doesn't really matter the game is on its 3rd game to me, I'm not sure Nintendo is hunting hard cold sales with this franchise.



No, I don't think he's lying, you're over-reaching. I just think AA aren't cheap to make either and that's exactly what I said : "I don't feel like XB2 is a cheap title to make", I didn't precise "AAA expensive" or something like that. It may not be as expensive as BOTW, but that doesn't mean it's cheap.



It may be not the best place to speak about that, but since we're using this metric to guess XB2 budget, I'll risk it. The problems I have with this :

- The source comes from a japanese twitter account, it's not like we heard it from Miyamoto himself or the company, unless I'm mistaking.
- It's hard to estimate the budget of the game properly since BOTW wasn't sold at the same price worldwide. In Europe, the game was (and still is in my country) 70€ in the eshop, it was 60$ in the US. It's isn't the case with XB2, the price seems to be consistant.
- The 2 millions numbers put the game budget at 100M and as far as the source goes, it doesn't speak about marketing, logistic and such. It's just dev costs, or seems to be.
- It was - again according to the source - a shareholders meeting, not the best place to get realistic estimations.
- Again, the quote doesn't come from Miyamoto or the company, it was reported by someone on Twitter, unless I missed a bit of the story (which could be and feel free to correct me if it was confirmed by Nintendo).

I remembered this 2M numbers for BOTW and I almost erased my post about XB2 thinking about it, but I also remembered the story was quite vague as far as I read through it. If I'm wrong, feel free to correct me about it.

Errrr Miyamoto came out with the 2 million figure in a shareholders meeting..........and if it needs 2 million to break even that means it includes dev cost + marketing. So Xenoblade 2 is probably nearer to 500'000. Even a game like Hellblade - a AAA indie game needed only 500k to break even and thats including them having to pay 20-30% to Sony in fees that obviously is not a factor for Monolith. No way its only breaking even at 1 million. Its probably doubling its money at 1 million
 
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OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
I'm going to assume this was Famitsu trying to catch up to the Media Create LTD. Last week they had the XB1 at 81,746 but this week it would now be 85,155 which is just ahead of Media Create's 85,052.
Specific deals at stores Famitsu tracks and Media Create doesn't. With so low numbers they can make a big difference.
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,487
Why are u skipping the ultimate Xeno experience there.^_^

Naw. The best Xenoblade game as of time of release is the first one. X is like the most disappointing follow up I ever touched. Xenoblade 2 is a return to form even with a lot of things I dont like.

Anyway. Yeah, the sales are bog standard thus far. We'll see where the legs take it if there are any but meh. ROTW will boost it a bunch.
 

Tsuyu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,577
Good opening for Yakuza and EDF.

I won't be so worry about Xenoblade 2 tho, it's a franchise with rather good potential to be A-tier JRPG sales wise in Japan.
 

EAD Ninja

任天堂 の 忍者
Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,347

Thank you! So this breaks down first-party NSW software sales in Japan from MC.

1. [NSW] Splatoon 2 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} - 1.460.370
2. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} (¥5.980) - 949.470
3. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 894.553
4. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 682.992
5. [NSW] 1-2-Switch <ETC> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥4.980) - 295.470
6. [NSW] ARMS <FTG> (Nintendo) {2017.06.16} (¥5.980) – 232.688
7. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 2 # <RPG> (Nintendo) {2017.12.01} (¥7.980) - 117.409
8. [NSW] Pokken Tournament DX <FTG> (Pokemon Co.) {2017.09.22} (¥5.980) - 139.637
9. [NSW] Snipperclips Plus <PZL> (Nintendo) {2017.11.10} (¥3.542) - 10.909 *
 

Deleted member 10737

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
49,774
most zelda games don't have legs this long, right?
at this point zelda seems to sell to new switch owners 9 month after release, and will probably continue to sell towards 1 million
 

James

Member
Oct 25, 2017
271
US
3Million.jpg




Famitsu


Wii U: 163 weeks.

3DS: 42 weeks.

Wii: 33 weeks.

DS: 39 weeks.

GC: 120 weeks.

GBA: 25 weeks.

GBC: 62 weeks.

N64: 134 weeks.

PS4: 131 weeks.

PSV: 134 weeks.

PS3: 125 weeks.

PSP: 64 weeks.

PS2: 42 weeks.

PSX: 88 weeks.


Switch?
For now, week 41, 2.758.140


1 - GBA: 25 weeks.
2 - Wii: 33 weeks.
3 - DS: 39 weeks.
4 - PS2: 42 weeks.
4 - 3DS: 42 weeks.


If big stocks, Switch could reach 3m next week (need ~240.000 switch).

This looks like a good question for you here. How do our Switch 3M predictions look compared to the sales we are seeing?

So where are people at with their (calendar) year end Switch estimates now? I don't know how good/bad these numbers are relative to our hopes.
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,171
The problems I have with this :
The twitter post was a transcript of Miyamoto's comments during the shareholders meeting, then translated by our own Cheesemeister. Like where else would you think the people got that information from the first place if they were not at that shareholder's meeting. From their ass? Exact costs due to regional sales and production and marketing logistics sure (Though I'm positive Nintendo just groups that together into a singular marketing budget for all of its games) but hinging all of your reasons by thinking the Twitter post that was ruining down all the talking points said in the meeting is somehow unreliable is nonsense.

Also why would that meeting not be the most accurate place to say these numbers, you think he's lying about the general consensus of how much they need to cover development costs??
 
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DeuceGamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,476
With AC Pocket Camp providing New Leaf a bump, I have to wonder what the best time frame is to release a mobile title to maximize this effect.
 

Vena

Community Resettler
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,379
I'm hope Monster Hunter finds the success Capcom is hoping for. It's a big risk for them. But if it finds its legs it'll give Japan another big online-centric console along side Splatoon and even MK8D.

It won't. Its a front loaded franchise to begin with, and children/extended general audiences aren't going to go out and buy a PS4 (look no further than every under-performing family oriented title) to give this title long legs. It may have legs around the core audience of MH being enticed in but it won't enjoy the long-form sales of the two titles you mentioned because it fails in appealing to that long-tailed buying audience because the hardware its on fails to appeal to said audience.

The poor performance when you extract the inflation from the bundle also shows a weakening/slowing of what little momentum the system has had. A price drop will be needed soon.

The base hardware of the PS4 and 3DS are basically performing at par, and one of these two systems is 7 years old and saturated to high-heaven (where luck was left).
 

mugwhump

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,288
I'm pretty happy with those EDF 5 numbers, yup yup.

I wonder if Nintendo will ship in any Switches by air.
 

Boiled Goose

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
9,999
I agree with your overall point but Nintendo Land is amazing and includes a fair amount of content.

Nintendoland has a good amount of content and can be a lot of fun once it gets going. It's great for groups of friends and even fun for spectators....

BUT...

It also has a ton of issues. The experience is very uneven. Some games only playable in multiplayer and there's no online at all. ..
The single player games are not fun with friends, even though modes could have been designed to make them more fun.

Starting play is a huge hassle. You need to choose miis, click on menus like 8 times, skip annoying tutorials. Replaying is confusing and hard. It's a mess.

Not only do you need 8 controllers, tablet, sensor bar, but some games require wii motions plus and nunchucks. That's a huge barrier to fun play.

The games can be fun, but the setup around then is horrible.

This should have been Nintendo party or something. With the games being the minigames on some sort of board game mode. That way you can have multiple people playing and integrate single or two player and 4 player modes into a cohesive session.
 

Dash Kappei

Member
Nov 1, 2017
4,828
Wow really great week for Switch and PS4! Very impressed on how good PS4 sales are, this bodes well for MonHun World when it comes out! (And that big boost PS4 will get!)

I'd say the opposite, both are pretty disappointing and their performance were lower than what could have been for similar reasons: low stock (MH bundle and Switch shipments).
I'd argue that of all Nintendo's Switch software, XBC2 was the only title not be benefiting from the usual Xmas boost... unless we speculate that in a different time it would have dropped 90%. Still, it'll end up as the best selling XB in the series with what was probably a lower budget than XBC and XBCX. I honestly think it should've been more time in the oven till mid 2018 and porting both previous titles first... there was little hype compared to X imo
 

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
With Nintendo's new shipment forecast they should have ample supply..unless they really really overloaded the U.S. market.
 

test_account

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,645
If you remove the bundle, which sold out months ago, the increase is fairly mum as this is holidays now. Last year, PS4 was driven by FFXV and price and a holiday boost kicking in, now its being driven by _____ and a holiday boost.

Right now, the holidays are a saving grace and the bundle is hiding just how low the actual numbers are.
Theres isnt anything being hidden though since we get the sales numbers for both the regular PS4 and PS4 Pro seperately. How the sales would be without the bundle is anyone's guess. Basially every system benefits from the holiday season, calling a saving grace makes it sound more dramatic than what it actually is, in my opinion. Holiday season alone is also just a few weeks, so even a boost twice as big as this wont really make a huge difference overall (LTD) if the performance isnt good over the course of the entire year.
 
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