• Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.

Fularu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,609
Nintendo could end 2018 with 4 2 millions sellers in Japan with retail alone

Prety impressive (Mario may fall short of it)
 

Ninjimbo

Banned
Dec 6, 2017
1,731
I'm reminded of how beastly Smash is. How does Smash compare to other fighting game franchises? I want to think it passed Tekken in lifetime sales awhile back but I'm not sure.
 

RocknRola

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,195
Portugal
Unsure if it's impressive that the PS4 will make it close-ish to two years (March 2017-March 2019) ahead of the Switch in Japan or sad that it will only take close-ish to two years for the Switch to pass it.

A little bit of both? :P
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
There is still some hope Kirby will hit 1m this FY and we'll have official numbers for Japan. 1m until March is difficult but not impossible.
 

silpheed-mcd

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,384
[UPDATE] Don't be shy :)

Users Predictions: 7 Million Switch in Japan

ElementaryPersonalIndianringneckparakeet-size_restricted.gif



VC7npYW.png


Write yours predictions like this please :)
Your name: weeks - numbers

THX :)


Arthoneceron:
104 weeks - 7.015.030
ccc: 108 weeks - 7.003.250
klanar: 94 weeks - 7.040.000



Source: gamedatalibrary

NDS:
71 weeks

3DS: 77 weeks

GBA: 91 weeks

PS2: 101 weeks

WII: 104 weeks

PS1: 131 weeks

PSP: 158 weeks

PS4: 239 weeks

PS3: 258 weeks
 

Wijuci

Member
Jan 16, 2018
2,809
I would love to see a graph of BotW sells since launch.
Its legs are really, really impressive.
 

DragoonKnight

Alt Account
Banned
Dec 12, 2018
22
There is still some hope Kirby will hit 1m this FY and we'll have official numbers for Japan.

Given the current pace, the digital sales will need to be 25% of current numbers to hit a million. Is that plausible? Especially given the fiction of Famitsu digital estimate...Especially for Nintendo platforms.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
[UPDATE] Don't be shy :)

Users Predictions: 7 Million Switch in Japan

ElementaryPersonalIndianringneckparakeet-size_restricted.gif



VC7npYW.png


Write yours predictions like this please :)
Your name: weeks - numbers


THX :)


Arthoneceron: 104 weeks - 7.015.030
ccc: 108 weeks - 7.003.250
klanar: 94 weeks - 7.040.000



Source: gamedatalibrary

NDS: 71 weeks

3DS: 77 weeks

GBA: 91 weeks

PS2: 101 weeks

WII: 104 weeks

PS1: 131 weeks

PSP: 158 weeks

PS4: 239 weeks

PS3: 258 weeks
Zedark: 96 weeks - 7.003.000
 
Last edited:
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Given the current pace, the digital sales will need to be 25% of current numbers to hit a million. Is that plausible? Especially given the fiction of Famitsu digital estimate...Especially for Nintendo platforms.
Nobody cares for Famitsu digital estimates when Nintendo provides shipments every quarter. It will be over 800k at December.
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,658
Great Switch and Smash sales, but man those evergreens. Are they gonna basically sell like this for the next 3-4 years? Insanity.

Probably. MK8D will sell forever with new systems. BOTW is probably a strong 2nd/3rd choice for hardware buyers that came on board with Smash now and AC next year. SMO I think would "suffer" the most from crowding as the 1st Party titles stack up next year. Q

WW I think MK8D is headed for massive numbers. They shipped 2.9M last year in Q3 alongside 7.2M HW. This year with 10-12M shipped and the bundle, how much below 40% can its attach rate dip? I think its looking in the vicinity of 4M shipped this quarter and then a strong Q4 followup (last year it slipped 35%) and its at 18-19M by end of FY18, and showing no signs of stopping. Right now I think its headed towards the 25-30M range (so MK8 + 8D = MKWii levels).

I think Smash is headed to evergreen status and >25M as well, but we'll have a better idea of legs next quarter (same for LGPE as well). BOTW and Odyssey will creep their way up to 20M in the end.
 

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,354
B/W are some of the highest sales in the franchise on one of the cheapest platforms for the series. Again, for the price of the Switch plus the game, these sales are pretty damn great.

Never said that they are not impressive. Just that they are still miles away from peak Pokemon figures like you suggested in your original post.
 

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,157
[UPDATE] Don't be shy :)

Users Predictions: 7 Million Switch in Japan

ElementaryPersonalIndianringneckparakeet-size_restricted.gif



VC7npYW.png


Write yours predictions like this please :)
Your name: weeks - numbers


THX :)


Arthoneceron: 104 weeks - 7.015.030
ccc: 108 weeks - 7.003.250
klanar: 94 weeks - 7.040.000



Source: gamedatalibrary

NDS: 71 weeks

3DS: 77 weeks

GBA: 91 weeks

PS2: 101 weeks

WII: 104 weeks

PS1: 131 weeks

PSP: 158 weeks

PS4: 239 weeks

PS3: 258 weeks
97 weeks - 7,030,000
 

Peleo

Member
Nov 2, 2017
2,656
Is the guy who posts the Switch LTD Software Numbers still around? Loved those graphs and Pokemon + Smash + Mario Party should have changed things a bit.
 

Tito

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,030
[UPDATE] Don't be shy :)

Users Predictions: 7 Million Switch in Japan

ElementaryPersonalIndianringneckparakeet-size_restricted.gif



VC7npYW.png


Write yours predictions like this please :)
Your name: weeks - numbers


THX :)


Arthoneceron: 104 weeks - 7.015.030
ccc: 108 weeks - 7.003.250
klanar: 94 weeks - 7.040.000



Source: gamedatalibrary

NDS: 71 weeks

3DS: 77 weeks

GBA: 91 weeks

PS2: 101 weeks

WII: 104 weeks

PS1: 131 weeks

PSP: 158 weeks

PS4: 239 weeks

PS3: 258 weeks
Tito: 100 weeks - 7.015.000
 
Last edited:

MysticGon

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 31, 2017
7,285
And on the 4th Week The Lord said, Let There Be Legs, and there were legs. And He saw that it was good.
 

Mbolibombo

Member
Oct 29, 2017
7,043
[UPDATE] Don't be shy :)

Users Predictions: 7 Million Switch in Japan

ElementaryPersonalIndianringneckparakeet-size_restricted.gif



VC7npYW.png


Write yours predictions like this please :)
Your name: weeks - numbers


THX :)


Arthoneceron: 104 weeks - 7.015.030
ccc: 108 weeks - 7.003.250
klanar: 94 weeks - 7.040.000



Source: gamedatalibrary

NDS: 71 weeks

3DS: 77 weeks

GBA: 91 weeks

PS2: 101 weeks

WII: 104 weeks

PS1: 131 weeks

PSP: 158 weeks

PS4: 239 weeks

PS3: 258 weeks

97 Weeks 7.110.000
 

KillstealWolf

One Winged Slayer
Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
16,071
That be some mighty Smash Sales that for sure. It's going to be tight to see if it can surpass the Monster Hunter World sales for the year. But I imagine the really big holiday sales will push it over for it.

Week 51 approaches.
 

JSG87

Member
Mar 13, 2018
1,174
Ayr, Scotland
[UPDATE] Don't be shy :)

Users Predictions: 7 Million Switch in Japan

ElementaryPersonalIndianringneckparakeet-size_restricted.gif



VC7npYW.png


Write yours predictions like this please :)
Your name: weeks - numbers


THX :)


Arthoneceron: 104 weeks - 7.015.030
ccc: 108 weeks - 7.003.250
klanar: 94 weeks - 7.040.000



Source: gamedatalibrary

NDS: 71 weeks

3DS: 77 weeks

GBA: 91 weeks

PS2: 101 weeks

WII: 104 weeks

PS1: 131 weeks

PSP: 158 weeks

PS4: 239 weeks

PS3: 258 weeks

JSG87: 103 weeks - 7,003,261
 

GTVision

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,068
Yikes! Guess that puts this in perspective. We're there any big ps4 releases last year around this time?
Hm not really. You have to look at the complete picture to put things in perspective.
Last year the PS4 didn't get a price cut like this year, but it did get three relatively big releases that influenced it's sales:

-Monster Hunter World Limited Edition PS4 Pro
-Yakuza Kiwami 2
-Earth Defence Force 5
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,617
Surprised Nintendo hasn't published PR for smash sales yet. Not sure what they're waiting for or if they'll just hold out till their investors meeting
 

Adamska

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,042
Adamska You see now why people were telling you in the last thread that Black Ops 4 has no chance against Super Mario Party? ;) Nintendo software during christmas season is just on another planet. And these software numbers will get even bigger since that week was mostly overshadowed by Smash.
Ah yes, that was quite the bump. Too bad western games aren't being reconsidered for purchase during these holiday seasons, seems japanese games will just eat up close to anything with Nintendo on it. They should maybe consider releasing a complete edition of BLOPSIIII next year, it could spark something up.
 

LunarKnite

Member
Oct 27, 2017
132
[UPDATE] Don't be shy :)

Users Predictions: 7 Million Switch in Japan

ElementaryPersonalIndianringneckparakeet-size_restricted.gif



VC7npYW.png


Write yours predictions like this please :)
Your name: weeks - numbers


THX :)


Arthoneceron: 104 weeks - 7.015.030
ccc: 108 weeks - 7.003.250
klanar: 94 weeks - 7.040.000



Source: gamedatalibrary

NDS: 71 weeks

3DS: 77 weeks

GBA: 91 weeks

PS2: 101 weeks

WII: 104 weeks

PS1: 131 weeks

PSP: 158 weeks

PS4: 239 weeks

PS3: 258 weeks

LunarKnite: 104 week - 7.027.777
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Weekly retailer hints vol.1

Holiday season has begun, next week will have bigger sales for evergreen titles.

God Eater 3 and Judgment don't generate a lot of excitement around them, they could end 3rd and 4th behind Smash and Pokemon.

PlayStation Classic hype is almost dead.
 

ShinobiBk

One Winged Slayer
Member
Dec 28, 2017
10,121
Tekken is at 47 million WW as of October and Smash excluding Ultimate is at ~41 million.
So Smash should be well past Tekken when Nintendo announces their next quarterly report then and will never look back.
Not bad for a series with far fewer entries than most fighting games
 

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
Weekly retailer hints vol.1

Holiday season has begun, next week will have bigger sales for evergreen titles.

God Eater 3 and Judgment don't generate a lot of excitement around them, they could end 3rd and 4th behind Smash and Pokemon.

PlayStation Classic hype is almost dead.

That would seem to portend another rise for Pokemon (unless GE3 and Judgment are going to bomb bigger than anyone thinks)
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
Damn. I thought Smash would have surpassed it. I wonder what would have been Smash 4's numbers were it not for the fact that it appeared on a dead system, not counting the 3DS of course.
That and Tekken had a shitton more games. The fact Smash ranks so high despite the small number of games is a testament to its popularity
 

Toni

Banned
Nov 13, 2017
1,983
Orlando, Florida
PS4 sales are 10k lower this week compared to last year, which didn't have a price cut. Ouch.

PS4 cant catch a break on Media Create threads.
It's like, it bothers some people or something when it gets a sales bump in Japan.

wFgXbn0.png


Genuinely happy for the Smash sales. It's the one Nintendo game I kept buying with each iteration everytime I got a Nintendo console.

I hope tradition continues next year when library is fleshed out and I gets me a Switch
.
 
Last edited:

Akash

Member
Oct 27, 2017
311
I don't know why this is surprising, like at all... It's a Zelda game in Japan; what's surprising is that BotW continues to sell at all.

Give me a break. Zelda isn't traditionally a juggernaut but no Smash has ever sold more than a million opening week in Japan and BOTW has had insane legs.

So yes, I'm gonna go with "surprising" that Smash outsold a very popular Zelda game nearly two years old in a matter of days.
 
Jan 10, 2018
7,207
Tokyo
There is no evidence showing this, they only data point is that sales have slowed down. What you are seeing might be natural decline. Most games struggle when they approach 3 million in the Japanese market. Or it can be as you said, but data on hand does not show point at any particular direction.

To say it must be a combination of what you said with any certainty is trying to fit a preconceived notion into a data that doesn't say anything about it. It's not scientific.

That's exactly why I would like to see the data from previous weeks, as it would be easy to characterize an increase in the discrepancy between 2018 and 17 after the release of NSO.
In the meantime, I'm entitled to have an opinion on that matter, especially since I was among the first to point that decline in Splatoon's sales.
Also, there's nothing "scientific" about sales data of any kind. I can tell from being a researcher myself, and from seeing quite a few non-scientific topics in my time.
 

Marmoka

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,014
I wonder how long will Switch need to outsell PS4 in Japan during 2019.
NSMBUDeluxe and Animal Crossing are the keys. And if they don't work, them the next Pokemon game.