Media Create Sales: Week 5, 2018 (Jan 29 - Feb 04)

Aters · Feb 14, 2018

NateDrake said:
They will and the worry of 2018 being a bad year of releases will melt away.

I have no doubt they have good stuff in their sleeves. It's just that they are keeping them too close to themselves. We are half way through February, I wonder when Nintendo can start talking about those games.

Colonel Mustard said:
It's February.

Barring last year, when has Nintendo ever announced their full lineup in the first two months if the year? Hell, most years, they're still padding the lineup out with new announcements until October.

They should at least start talking about first half of the year because we are already one-thirds of that. So far we are getting Bayonetta 1+2 and Kirby. Not exactly what I'd call exciting.

MasterChumly · Feb 14, 2018

Chris1964 said:
This year is heading to be a 4m+ for Switch. If someone had crazy expectations for sales it doesn't mean it's the majority.

I've read every media create thread for months. Hell just the past few weeks the threads were full of "it's supply constrained it will go up". I was one of those people. Unless I missed a whole bunch of people predicting sub 50k weeks as a baseline by February.

Vena · Feb 14, 2018

I'd question stock for achieving 5mil let alone 6mil in just Japan. Rest of the world also needs stock, and a major release like Pokémon would stretch them globally.

NateDrake · Feb 14, 2018

Aters said:
I have no doubt they have good stuff in their sleeves. It's just that they are keeping them too close to themselves. We are half way through February, I wonder when Nintendo can start talking about those games.

As you said... we are half way through February. Nintendo's new habit is to announce things within a 3 month window - with the occasional exception. They still have to date some spring 2018 releases, so either just before or just after Kirby releases we should hear more about their spring and early summer lineup, which will then lead us into E3. E3 they detail most of the remaining releases of the year, but they'll leave a few surprises out for perhaps a Sept Direct.

Vena said:
I'd question stock for achieving 5mil let alone 6mil in just Japan. Rest of the world also needs stock, and a major release like Pokémon would stretch them globally.

Pokemon release in 2018 presents an interesting topic of discussion. Not only stock availability, but one of price. A price drop to coincide with Pokemon Switch arrival would be a major move and one that would move tons of hardware.

Deleted member 1413 · Feb 14, 2018

Nothing from Nintendo is set in stone past May.
Assuming the second half of 2018 isn't just Yoshi, we should get some stuff soon

MoonFrog · Feb 14, 2018

I mean, I didn't openly predict anything but these January numbers don't seem strange to me? They seem pretty good and consistent for a dead month in terms of new releases. That and software sales are really good too.

Grads · Feb 14, 2018

NateDrake said:
Pokemon release in 2018 presents an interesting topic of discussion. Not only stock availability, but one of price. A price drop to coincide with Pokemon Switch arrival would be a major move and one that would move tons of hardware.

If Pokemon is coming in 2018...high stock availability and a planned price drop should be a given I think, that is if Nintendo wants to have multiple switches per household.

NateDrake · Feb 14, 2018

Grads said:
If Pokemon is coming in 2018...high stock availability and a planned price drop should be a given I think, that is if Nintendo wants to have multiple switches per household.

Absolutely agree. No matter when Pokemon hits (be it 2018 or 2019) it will be partnered with a price drop.

Rainrir · Feb 14, 2018

Switch stock in Japan is like a litmus test to see who is on which side of the console war.

Hilarious.

SDF: It's gonna collapse any day now. Demand is normalizing. Hehehehr

NDF: It is still selling what it ships and it ships in small numbers constantly. yyyyyaasss.

I don't know what to believe anymore.

Zippo · Feb 14, 2018

If the all of the rumors are true, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Smash Bros., and New Super Mario Bros. in the second half would be monstrous. They'd have no problem getting to their 20 million goal, I imagine.

SinCityAssassin · Feb 14, 2018

Rainrir said:
I don't know what to believe anymore.

Believe in new smartphone games.

Jpop · Feb 14, 2018

MasterChumly said:
It's clear at this point that everybody has vastly overblown expectations for the switch in Japan based off November/December. I'm one of them. Sub 50k seems to be the new standard.

Oh, boy. Here we go with anectdotal assumptions.

skullwaker · Feb 14, 2018

Zippo said:
If the all of the rumors are true, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Smash Bros., and New Super Mario Bros. in the second half would be monstrous. They'd have no problem getting to their 20 million goal, I imagine.

Pls no. Let's get a new style of 2D Mario.

Then they can use that in Mario Maker 2.

Jon Carter · Feb 14, 2018

Aters said:
I have no doubt they have good stuff in their sleeves. It's just that they are keeping them too close to themselves. We are half way through February, I wonder when Nintendo can start talking about those games.

They should at least start talking about first half of the year because we are already one-thirds of that. So far we are getting Bayonetta 1+2 and Kirby. Not exactly what I'd call exciting.

Mario Tennis, Labo, Donkey Kong and Hyrule Warriors are first half too and they're bigger releases than Bayonetta.

MoonFrog · Feb 14, 2018

I don't get why a post-holiday lull with no major new releases (especially when there is a major new release on other hardware atm) would be taken as a sign that Switch will not perform as well as people hope, in the end.

Rainrir said:
Switch stock in Japan is like a litmus test to see who is on which side of the console war.

Hilarious.

SDF: It's gonna collapse any day now. Demand is normalizing. Hehehehr

NDF: It is still selling what it ships and it ships in small numbers constantly. yyyyyaasss.

I don't know what to believe anymore.

I mean, the situation is that Nintendo thinks it has pretty much sorted out supply problem and anecdotal reports sort of bear this out or at least hold that things are much improved in a significant number of locations if not all.

And it is selling ~40k weekly. I don't think those are results to be triumphant about--I don't mean that they are amazing as could be when I say they don't seem bad in context to me-- and I don't think they are results that at all tell you the doom for Switch is nigh. They don't disconfirm the very much positive Switch story thus far imo.

Zippo · Feb 14, 2018

skullwaker said:
Pls no. Let's get a new style of 2D Mario.

Then they can use that in Mario Maker 2.

Emily says that isn't happening, at least not this year. We're getting a port of NSMBU.

Mbolibombo · Feb 14, 2018

Isnt the 45-50k baseline for Japan just what it should have in order to keep up with the 16M shipment for the fiscal year? If Japan still gets about 25% of the total shipments that is.

So we really whouldnt see much more weekly for the remainder of the year (outside of a slight bump for Kirby week)

Deleted member 1413 · Feb 14, 2018

NateDrake said:
Absolutely agree. No matter when Pokemon hits (be it 2018 or 2019) it will be partnered with a price drop.

I'm guessing that they'll launch Smash or Pokémon in September alongside the online service and they'll cut the price to $250. Maybe bundled with a game

Imad issa · Feb 14, 2018

Rainrir said:
Switch stock in Japan is like a litmus test to see who is on which side of the console war.

Hilarious.

SDF: It's gonna collapse any day now. Demand is normalizing. Hehehehr

NDF: It is still selling what it ships and it ships in small numbers constantly. yyyyyaasss.

I don't know what to believe anymore.

Believe in what you see, what were seeing now is stock demand is normalizing, before NDF had a solid argument, because it was always selling out.

_Dog · Feb 14, 2018

skullwaker said:
Pls no. Let's get a new style of 2D Mario.

Then they can use that in Mario Maker 2.

A new style is completely unnecessary. We've plenty of old ones that can be used for Mario Maker 2, including other NSMB games.

Here's a cup to the hypothetical New Super Mario Bros. 3. *raises cup*

Jpop · Feb 14, 2018

Imad issa said:
Believe in what you see, what were seeing now is stock is normalizing, before NDF had a solid argument, because it was always selling out.

You should stop while you are ahead with the console wars bullshit.

MoonFrog · Feb 14, 2018

? I don't think that it is going to collapse has much of a solid argument?

BishopLamont · Feb 14, 2018

Zippo said:
If the all of the rumors are true, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Smash Bros., and New Super Mario Bros. in the second half would be monstrous. They'd have no problem getting to their 20 million goal, I imagine.

it'd make sense

this past year was mainly home console games/ports

this year will be handheld-centric games

skullwaker said:
Pls no. Let's get a new style of 2D Mario.

Then they can use that in Mario Maker 2.

i seriously hope they do but it's hard for me to envision anything other than the nsmb style =/

Raijinto · Feb 14, 2018

Who is NDF?

LordByron28 · Feb 14, 2018

Nintendo Labo is a big unknown but it sounds like it has potential to drive hardware sales significantly in Japan. If we are talking about Switch's year sales. The Switch will also benefit in Japan from steady releases. M&R in January, Bayonetta in February, Dragon Quest Builders, Kirby and Hyrule Warriors in March, Labo in April, Donkey Kong and Dark Souls in May with Mario Tennis sometime in between there. While most of these titles will likely sell between 50k-250k; Kirby and Labo could be much bigger hits.

Imad issa · Feb 14, 2018

Jpop said:
You should stop while you are ahead with the console wars bullshit.

Well i'm using the term he used, but there is nothing wrong in what i said, the baseline for nintendo switch could have easily been 65-80k, nobody knew. with this week numbers it doesn't look to be that high.

skullwaker · Feb 14, 2018

Zippo said:
Emily says that isn't happening, at least not this year. We're getting a port of NSMBU.

That would be unfortunate. Not even sure what they would call it.

_Dog said:
A new style is completely unnecessary. We've plenty of old ones that can be used for Mario Maker 2, including other NSMB games.

Here's a cup to the hypothetical New Super Mario Bros. 3. *raises cup*

I don't see why a new style would be unnecessary. Should companies just reuse art styles forever?

And New Super Mario Bros. 3 already exists. It's called New Super Mario Bros. U.

kjtc1979 · Feb 14, 2018

Mbolibombo said:
Isnt the 45-50k baseline for Japan just what it should have in order to keep up with the 16M shipment for the fiscal year? If Japan still gets about 25% of the total shipments that is.

So we really whouldnt see much more weekly for the remainder of the year (outside of a slight bump for Kirby week)

Pretty much. The Switch is still selling through its weekly shipments, which is why the number is so steady from week to week. The Switch is readily available in the US now, but not yet in Japan. Demand isn't met until the thing is readily available. They are a lot closer to that than they were during the 2017 droughts, but they're not there yet. The increase in manufacturing has given them a healthier baseline at least.

kjtc1979 · Feb 14, 2018

Imad issa said:
Well i'm using the term he used, but there is nothing wrong in what i said, the baseline for nintendo switch could have easily been 65-80k, nobody knew.

Your use of past tense here is incorrect. The Switch could very easily have a baseline of 65-80K in Japan if supply existed on that level, but it doesn't. The shipments of ~45k are selling through and the system is not consistently in stock in Japan. Just easier to find with some effort than it was last year before manufacturing increased in the fall.

Imad issa · Feb 14, 2018

kjtc1979 said:
Your use of past tense here is incorrect. The Switch could very easily have a baseline of 65-80K in Japan if supply existed on that level, but it doesn't. The shipments of ~45k are selling through and the system is not consistently in stock in Japan. Just easier to find with some effort than it was last year before manufacturing increased in the fall.

IDK we have people here saying Switch is available in some stores, and sold out in others, that tells me that supply is near the demand, if demand was much higher then it would be sold out everywhere.

Vena · Feb 14, 2018

I see we're constructing absurdly high baselines to tear down. Interesting choice of fallacy.

Sandfox · Feb 14, 2018

Aters said:
I have no doubt they have good stuff in their sleeves. It's just that they are keeping them too close to themselves. We are half way through February, I wonder when Nintendo can start talking about those games.

They should at least start talking about first half of the year because we are already one-thirds of that. So far we are getting Bayonetta 1+2 and Kirby. Not exactly what I'd call exciting.

A lot of the big games coming out later in the year haven't been shown off in general. It's still too early.

The first half of the year is fine so far IMO.

Herb Alpert · Feb 14, 2018

So the narrative being pushed is now that Switch is fading because we have relative low (in the sense "not as high as we thought") february numbers ?

That's some mighty long term in depth analysis we have here.

Nirolak · Feb 14, 2018

I'm slightly more bullish about how Mario Kart mobile could perform now, though the Chinese market is obviously pretty unique: https://www.resetera.com/threads/qq...top-grossing-game-in-january-worldwide.23203/

casiopao · Feb 14, 2018

Imad issa said:
IDK we have people here saying Switch is available in some stores, and sold out in others, that tells me that supply is near the demand, if demand was much higher then it would be sold out everywhere.

Again. Some stores. That should already tell u that even though the supply condition is improving, there is still some shortages.

Imad issa · Feb 14, 2018

casiopao said:
Again. Some stores. That should already tell u that even though the supply condition is improving, there is still some shortages.

Did you even read what i wrote?

Rainrir · Feb 14, 2018

Nirolak said:
I'm slightly more bullish about how Mario Kart mobile could perform now, though the Chinese market is obviously pretty unique: https://www.resetera.com/threads/qq...top-grossing-game-in-january-worldwide.23203/

Never underestimate Nintendo's ability to sabotage it's own success..

Most of the people thought ACPC will be a success too.

What a abject piece of failure that was.

SinCityAssassin · Feb 14, 2018

Rainrir said:
Never underestimate Nintendo's ability to sabotage it's own success..

What does that have to do with the Chinese kart game.

Rainrir · Feb 14, 2018

SinCItyAssassin said:
What does that have to do with the Chinese kart game.

Nirolak was saying how he is more bullish about Mario Kart Mobile will perform now, based on the performance of that Chinese game.

SinCityAssassin · Feb 14, 2018

Rainrir said:
Nirolak was saying how he is more bullish about Mario Kart Mobile will perform now, based on the performance of that Chinese game.

Yeah man, you gotta make it all cute anime girls and also the princesses and maybe even put in Mario and you're golden.

K Samedi · Feb 14, 2018

Rainrir said:
Never underestimate Nintendo's ability to sabotage it's own success..

Most of the people thought ACPC will be a success too.

What a abject piece of failure that was.

ACPC Still has potential. I wouldnt call it a failure just yet.

Epilexia · Feb 14, 2018

I think that people are underestimating the importante of 'Labo'. I think that once is released, it will put Switch's numbers in a position close to Nintendo DS in the peak of 'Nintendogs' and 'Brain Training'. My prediction is that in the first month of release, every one of the first two kits can easily reach a 1 million sales, and 300,000 consoles per week. And then, the console will normalize in 100,000 units per week. I also predict at least two new kits of 'Labo', one releasing in July and other one for the Christmas season. At the end of 2018, I think that the two initial kits, can have numbers surpassing 2 millions for each one.

And Kimishima said last year that they were preparing new innovative products for kids and for adults. By making a Nintendo DS comparison, 'Nintendogs' was the product targeted for kids, while 'Brain Training' was the product oriented for adults. We already know that 'Labo' is the product for kids. But we still don't know what is their new innovative product oriented for adults and a more casual market this year. And by looking at 'Labo' or to past attempts such as the Wii balance board, I will say again: never underestimate Nintendo.

Imad issa · Feb 14, 2018

Epilexia said:
I think that people are underestimating the importante of 'Labo'. I think that once is released, it will put Switch's numbers in a position close to Nintendo DS in the peak of 'Nintendogs' and 'Brain Training'. My prediction is that in the first month of release, every one of the first two kits can easily reach a 1 million sales, and 300,000 consoles per week. And then, the console will normalize in 100,000 units per week. I also predict at least two new kits of 'Labo', one releasing in July and other one for the Christmas season. At the end of 2018, I think that the two initial kits, can have numbers surpassing 2 millions for each one.

And Kimishima said last year that they were preparing new innovative products for kids and for adults. By making a Nintendo DS comparison, 'Nintendogs' was the product targeted for kids, while 'Brain Training' was the product oriented for adults. We already know that 'Labo' is the product for kids. But we still don't know what is their new innovative product oriented for adults and a more casual market this year. And by looking at 'Labo' or to past attempts such as the Wii balance board, I will say again: never underestimate Nintendo.

These products are hit and miss, kind of impossible to predict, there has been nothing like it before to compare it too, well except VR kind of.

ggx2ac · Feb 14, 2018

MasterChumly said:
I've read every media create thread for months. Hell just the past few weeks the threads were full of "it's supply constrained it will go up". I was one of those people. Unless I missed a whole bunch of people predicting sub 50k weeks as a baseline by February.

How can sales go up if it's still supply constrained?

Imad issa said:
Well i'm using the term he used, but there is nothing wrong in what i said, the baseline for nintendo switch could have easily been 65-80k, nobody knew. with this week numbers it doesn't look to be that high.

Me two weeks ago:

ggx2ac said:
I doubt Nintendo are stockpiling units. They're having shortages again which is no surprise when they shipped everything they had for the holidays(worldwide)+first week of new year for Japan.

Vena said:
I see we're constructing absurdly high baselines to tear down. Interesting choice of fallacy.

Indeed.

Deleted member 31092 · Feb 14, 2018

If Switch does 4+m this year will it pass the 3DS launch alligned?

K Samedi · Feb 14, 2018

Epilexia said:
I think that people are underestimating the importante of 'Labo'. I think that once is released, it will put Switch's numbers in a position close to Nintendo DS in the peak of 'Nintendogs' and 'Brain Training'. My prediction is that in the first month of release, every one of the first two kits can easily reach a 1 million sales, and 300,000 consoles per week. And then, the console will normalize in 100,000 units per week. I also predict at least two new kits of 'Labo', one releasing in July and other one for the Christmas season. At the end of 2018, I think that the two initial kits, can have numbers surpassing 2 millions for each one.

And Kimishima said last year that they were preparing new innovative products for kids and for adults. By making a Nintendo DS comparison, 'Nintendogs' was the product targeted for kids, while 'Brain Training' was the product oriented for adults. We already know that 'Labo' is the product for kids. But we still don't know what is their new innovative product oriented for adults and a more casual market this year. And by looking at 'Labo' or to past attempts such as the Wii balance board, I will say again: never underestimate Nintendo.

I expect Switch to be hugely succesfull this year but I dont think they can ship as many as you think they can. The DS peak was insanely high and not something so easily reproducible.

Epilexia · Feb 14, 2018

Imad issa said:
These products are hit and miss, kind of impossible to predict, there has been nothing like it before to compare it too, well except VR kind of.

We have 'Wii Fit' to compare. We have 'Nintendogs' to compare. Nintendo has a tradition of coming with these new ideas and killing the market. I think that the only examples in which these ideas have failed, I'm looking at you, Wii U, it was because of releasing them in systems that weren't attractive to the public and without momentum.

Also, while this can't serve to anticipate the success of 'Labo' in Japan, if you look at the original announcement trailer in Nintendo's official channel in Youtube, it has 12 million of views in a month. By comparison, the original reveal trailer of 'Red Dead Redemption 2' released two years ago has 15 million.

And I haven't seen a video game product covered in so many generalist and big press mediums in the last years. Every single signal in the market is pointing to a complete success, from the reactions of the investors, how it appeared in every single conversation, the number of articles in press, the positive reactions of the public and journalists.

From my experience after decades following the industry, all of this is resembles to me the same situation that we saw with 'Nintendogs' and the first DS.

KillerMan91 · Feb 14, 2018

Joseki said:
If Switch does 4+m this year will it pass the 3DS launch alligned?

No. it will fall further back compared to 3DS. 3DS sold about 5.5 million units in 2012 in Japan.

Imad issa · Feb 14, 2018

ggx2ac said:
How can sales go up if it's still supply constrained?

Me two weeks ago:

Indeed.

I''m not getting why there are shortages, they shipped 3.72 million as of DEC 31 to japan, 40 days later and they still haven't sold that much according to media create.

SinCityAssassin · Feb 14, 2018

Joseki said:
If Switch does 4+m this year will it pass the 3DS launch alligned?

KillerMan91 said:
No. it will fall further back compared to 3DS. 3DS sold about 5.5 million in 2012 in Japan.

Is he talking end of 2018 or the fiscal year ending in March.

Media Create Sales: Week 5, 2018 (Jan 29 - Feb 04)

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