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v2_0

User requested permanent ban
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Oct 28, 2017
556
Are there really some people believing that ? We're four years into PS4's lifecycle, its fate is already decided, Monster Hunter or not.
No one probably thinks it can have a strong impact for sure, but it is still the only aspect that can add some uncertainty in the competition between the two systems so about what will happen on this market. Other than that the coming years just look awfully predictable and again that's the big news.
 

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
No one probably thinks it can have a strong impact for sure, but it is still the only aspect that can add some uncertainty in the competition between the two systems. Other than that the coming years just look awfully predictable and again that's the big news.

hardware is very predictable. Switch is on track to be a 20M+ selling one, PS4 will be around PS3.

Only sort of interesting question is 3rd party software decisions.
 

Brewster123

Self-Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,456
Charlottesville, VA
The problem with correlating the Switch with the Japanese Market is that the Switch is selling out worldwide. If Capcom wanted to appeal to the West, going PS4/Switch for the series post-MHW would be the best choice. Not only could you capture the western audience through the PS4 and Switch, but the Switch's domestic success would help avoid isolating your Nintendo-based fanbase.
 

Deleted member 2791

User requested account closure
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Oct 25, 2017
19,054
No one probably thinks it can have a strong impact for sure, but it is still the only aspect that can add some uncertainty in the competition between the two systems so about what will happen on this market. Other than that the coming years just look awfully predictable and again that's the big news.

There's really no uncertainty. At this point, if we knew when PS4's replacement would come, we could already predict its final LTD. No games currently announced (and I'd even say that no games at all) is going to change anything after the Switch's release.
 

v_iHuGi

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
5,155
MHW is definitely on Beast Mode, glad that people are doubting the game here will only make me appreciate the Monster Sales it will have :)
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,909
They we're going to have to make HD assets eventually, even for Switch (presumably anyways) and they'll be reused for a long time just like its SD assets were.
The only main MH that didn't have it's assets made from scratch is MH2. World's not really any different from Tri or 4 in that regard, only much more expensive. MH6 will probably have all new assets too.

World assets will be reused for awhile but this isn't a sunk cost they would reap for longer than any other MH generation.
 

Peace

Alt Account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
978
France
That's mostly because besides upres and slightly better textures, it was the exact same game the base over there bought on the 3DS and it released late and after they revealed Monster Hunter World for the first time.

Hmmm, that's your take on it. Here's another assumption : If I wanted a new MH on Switch so bad and was a hardcore fan of the franchise, I'd have jump on MHXX to prove I'm willing to support the licence on Switch.
 

v2_0

User requested permanent ban
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
556
hardware is very predictable. Switch is on track to be a 20M+ selling one, PS4 will be around PS3.

Only sort of interesting question is 3rd party software decisions.
There's really no uncertainty. At this point, if we knew when PS4's replacement would come, we could already predict its final LTD. No games currently announced (and I'd even say that no games at all) is going to change anything after the Switch's release.
Absolutely. I just think that Sony can't be satisfied with a situation where there is no contest they are going to lose by such a huge margin on this market.
 

CaviarMeths

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
10,655
Western Canada
HW wise 2017 was better thanks to Switch but only compared to the last years. If i go further back (DS/Wii/PSP aka ''good days'') the numbers are depressing. I mean that Switch alone can't change the situation of the dedicated consoles in Japan despite doing good. Mobile will own the industry. At the very least we won't see a decline and it can do similar to it's predecessor like PS4 is doing compared to PS3.
Wii/DS/PSP was insane and highly unusual for the industry everywhere, not just Japan. You're talking 330m global sales there, compared to just 100m to the Wii U/3DS/Vita. It's plainly disingenuous to imply this is a decline specific to Japan.
 

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
Hmmm, that's your take on it. Here's another assumption : If I wanted a new MH on Switch so bad and was a hardcore fan of the franchise, I'd have jump on MHXX to prove I'm willing to support the licence on Switch.

Capcom itself knew what a turd the Switch version was and marketed accordingly. It sold better than they expected.
 

Sandfox

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,743
Hmmm, that's your take on it. Here's another assumption : If I wanted a MH on Switch so bad and was a hardcore fan of the franchise, I'd have jump on MHXX to prove I'm willing to support the licence on Switch.
Why would people buy a port of a 3DS game that fans didn't want to be made? Even then the numbers it did get exceeded Capcom's expectations.
 

Vena

Community Resettler
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,379
Absolutely. I just think that Sony can't be satisfied with a situation where there is no contest they are going to lose by such a huge margin on this market.

There's really not much they can do. 2018 is going to be really bad for the PS4 come summer, really bad. The Switch is accelerating the market, old consoles are maturing out rapidly.

Capcom itself knew what a turd the Switch version was and marketed accordingly. It sold better than they expected.

Nintendo sold XX, not Capcom.
 

Smiles

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,897
Thats not what he's saying. He's just comparing revenue of Title A to Title B.

If you wanted to get the whole picture together then over the span of 2 years, a given MH 3DS title was selling 8+ million copies for revenue calculations. We have no current announcements for any monetization for World outside of receptionist skins and pre-order DLC skins. Though I'd expect a season pass.
They we're going to have to make HD assets eventually, even for Switch (presumably anyways) and they'll be reused for a long time just like its SD assets were.
No, I'm talking about revenue.

The transition to HD is inevitable and just like on 3DS, they can reuse most monster assets in future games.

thanks guys
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
MHW might debut higher than I expected (~850k). They have been very aggressive with their marketing so 1m FW should be doable.
 

Lwill

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,627
Hmmm, that's your take on it. Here's another assumption : If I wanted a new MH on Switch so bad and was a hardcore fan of the franchise, I'd have jump on MHXX to prove I'm willing to support the licence on Switch.
Going by Capcom's words, that proof should already be present. It is the same situation for Namco with DBX2 too; the game they threw out went beyond their expectation.
 

Vena

Community Resettler
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,379
Going by Capcom's words, that proof should already be present. It is the same situation for Namco with DBX2 too; the game they threw out went beyond their expectation.

DBXV2 is a better product and actually got (and is getting) marketing. Its also doing considerably better than XX.

One of these companies knows how to leg a product, one of them doesn't.
 

ArkhamFantasy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,544
Absolutely. I just think that Sony can't be satisfied with a situation where there is no contest they are going to lose by such a huge margin on this market.

The PS4 is their most profitable console ever, they dont care if they lose a market thats been dominated by Nintendo for 3 decades. There's literally nothing they can do about it.
 

foxuzamaki

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,550
Will actually be interested to see any reaction from Nintendo in regard to the loss of monster hunter to PS4. Given Capcoms dev resources it seems heavily unlikely to me they can support MHW and move forward with a seperate Switch entry. Maybe Nintendo instead will look to someone like Platinum to develop something similar maybe using their work on Scalebound as a base? Or maybe they are cooking up something in house?

Can't imagine they are happy about the situation they are in with this franchise now after being the ones who were pushing the titles for many years in the West and who gave it a platform to thrive on in Japan after the PSP. In fact I imagine they are pretty pissed at Capcom internally
I wouldn't know what they feel but ill say that once MHW got announced, MHS marketing seemed to drop off a cliff, the only reason for capcom to allow Nintendo to publish h
The title was for the marketing and alot of the Times everyone forgot it existed and was coming to America until someone reminded us, I can't say that's directly the cause but phew, that game had like no marketing.
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
I...don't think either one of those statements are really true?

Hmmm I could see it being quite subjective, especially the latter part.

There's an argument that any software focused on the PS4 is already treating Japan as low priority, and that's the bulk of what Japanese publishers are making now.

A hybrid like the Switch is imo a much bigger threat and direct competitor to Sony's consoles than any previous Nintendo handheld has ever been because it is of course not just a handheld and because it's aiming at a very Sony-like audience. It made sense also to develop the games I mentioned on PS4 for technical reasons or because they were meant to be consoles "experience". But that's probably not really a valid point anymore for future similar games when you can make them on a successful hybrid system that is comparatively much more powerful than these handheld were at their times and can let people play on a tv too. Unlike previous Nintendo systems heavily focusing on "gimmicks", Switch is also targeting primarily on "hardcore gamers" and is very popular among them, not only with casual gamers.

So sure Sony can just continue to do what they have done in the past but with a much fiercer competition that can only end with their position in this market to be strongly weakened. And that of course will end with less and less Japanese exclusives and even games for their upcoming systems.

You know maybe the reason we keep discussing about MHW in these threads is because that basically seems like the only remaining card that Sony can play to stay relevant against the Switch in the coming years in Japan and that fact is imo the real huge news here.

There's still a vast technical gulf between Switch and PS4, and obviously that will only grow with PS5. It's also reliant on software publishers to decide to support the Switch with those franchises, and for it to happen to such an extent for their to be a critical mass where that audience will then make Switch their preference.

I actually feel that Switch came at an in-opportune time as publishers had just started dropping PS3/Vita and making software aimed at the PS4's but hadn't yet had impetus to support Switch.

The only main MH that didn't have it's assets made from scratch is MH2. World's not really any different from Tri or 4 in that regard, only much more expensive. MH6 will probably have all new assets too.

World assets will be reused for awhile but this isn't a sunk cost they would reap for longer than any other MH generation.

I've said it before Capcom has now entered the graphical arms race. World 2 on PS5/XB? sure isn't going to be able to get away with using World assets.
 

Sense

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,551
PS4 is on track to sell 100 million selling like shit in japan so they have nothing to worry about. Japanese third parties are already thinking and releasing globally so Sony is not going to lose out on Japanese support. Switch will get some exclusives and Sony will get some and the vast majority will be Multiplatform. Some can keep repeating ad nauseum how Switch is going to swallow up entire japan market but it isn't going to matter in terms of software support for Sony platforms.
 

Eolz

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
7,601
FR
Code:
Days Remaining     FFXV          DQ XI          MH:XX (3DS)      MH:W
34              295 (+0)        418 (+5)        644 (+12)        684 (+16)
33              298 (+3)        422 (+4)        649 (+5)         708 (+24)
32              301 (+3)        426 (+4)        659 (+10)        723 (+15)
31              305 (+4)        430 (+4)        669 (+10)        741 (+18)
30              307 (+2)        438 (+8)        681 (+12)        751 (+10)
29              307 (+0)        442 (+4)        698 (+17)        755 (+4)
28              309 (+2)        449 (+7)        718 (+20)        773 (+18)
27              312 (+3)        467 (+18)       743 (+25)        790 (+17)
26              317 (+5)        475 (+8)        755 (+12)        802 (+12)
25              319 (+2)        477 (+2)        764 (+9)         819 (+17)
24              321 (+2)        485 (+8)        778 (+14)        841 (+22)
23              324 (+3)        494 (+9)        792 (+14)        876 (+35)
22              329 (+5)        498 (+4)        803 (+11)        897 (+21)
21              329 (+0)        506 (+8)        823 (+20)        928 (+31)
20              330 (+1)        520 (+14)       854 (+31)
19              331 (+1)        527 (+7)        873 (+19)
18              339 (+8)        530 (+3)        886 (+13)
17              345 (+6)        544 (+14)       905 (+19)
16              348 (+3)        553 (+9)        921 (+16)
15              352 (+4)        560 (+7)        947 (+26)

1                470             800              1305
FW Sales(MC)   690.471        950.315           848.467
HW Sales       118.350         93.356            42.279
Multiplier      1.4            1.18              0.65

Another 30+ day.

Day of the stream right? It was expected if so.

Rabbids is going to sell more than Dissidia, isn't it.

I wouldn't be surprised.
 

vala

Member
Oct 25, 2017
784
Then every game has its own category: mainline, expansion to mainline, spin off, expansion to spin off.
LOL
At least all of them are action games and sold over a million, unlike Stories.
It seems you want me to put XX on a different category only because it sold considerably less than the others...
 

ACL

Member
Nov 18, 2017
1,304
The inabilities of Japanese third parties to respond their own market is of their own doing but also, frankly, largely overblown beyond the likes of Capcom, Level5, or globally successful companies like Bamco.

The Switch itself has seemingly not been at a loss for wear at the absence of these titles and is selling on its own USP and Nintendo's software (and still moving 3rd party software). That is a very, very strong wind on which to ride into a future of software titles like Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Smash, and, later, price drops. We'll invariably see forms of DQ also appear as have even been announced.

Moreover, the above shows just how irrelevant most third parties have made themselves in Japan. They've completely demolished their own mindshare and relevance, and frankly I don't see many of them making any actual successful inroads into "the west" or Asia or Mars. We're more watching the slow and steady march into oblivion and a handful of exceptions that like to be celebrated.

MHW would have maybe mattered years ago, but we're looking at fairly bleak 2018+ for the PS4 in Japan beyond this title and the system has already plateaued, its down hill from here out. In the West, the PS4 will go on chugging for a year or two more. The basis of Oregano's argument either supposes that the PS4 will somehow not atrophy in audience as it ages-out but that also the PS5 will replicate it without further considerable declines. Otherwise, he's arguing that... a franchise dropping millions with millions still sold in Japan will be sustainable when it drops another million and then another five-hundred thousand and then....

I agree. Nintendo basically single handedly pushing Switch to market dominance is a big slap in the face to the whole Japanese industry. Considering especially SquareEnix seemed to consider themselves as "king makers" in Japan, even going as far as to move most of their DQ projects to PS4 and initial plans for DQ11 only on PS4 in the middle of 3DSs lifecycle. Among other early announcements like KH3 and FF with the stated objective to "save" the Japanese console market. The irony is that SQEX actually backtracked a bit after realizing market realities and announced new DQ projects and DQ11 for Nintendo systems, while Capcom went full speed ahead.
 
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Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,487
Then every game has its own category: mainline, expansion to mainline, spin off, expansion to spin off.
LOL
At least all of them are action games and sold over a million, unlike Stories.
It seems you want me to put XX on a different category only because it sold considerably less than the others...

XX is the 5th MH game on the 3DS and released in its 6th year on the market. It also is a spin off to an expansion. You can include it but I mean, its just cherry picking. The only relevant MH titles to be lookig at on 3DS MH4 and MHX and even MHX is a spinoff.

No matter how you slice it MH never came close to 4.5m per release on 3DS. But there is no way any platform could support the amount of MH Capcom put out on 3DS without declinea.
 

Pooroomoo

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,972
Then every game has its own category: mainline, expansion to mainline, spin off, expansion to spin off.
LOL
At least all of them are action games and sold over a million, unlike Stories.
It seems you want me to put XX on a different category only because it sold considerably less than the others...
But there is a good reason it sold considerably less... So, when doing averages of series, you would count Pokemon Ultra same as Sun and Moon? You would count for COD as part of the average how much the Vita COD sold? By that same logic, PS is on a downwards crashing course, I mean, look how much less PS4 Pro has sold vs. the PS4... They're both overall the same category after all, and no they are not the same console. Would you count all RE games to make an average in order to demonstrate what the average of a RE game should sell?
 
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MoonFrog

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,969
The thing is also to remember that a lot of niche games aren't going to benefit as much from a higher installed base. Throw in (possibly false) assumptions about a dedicated niche and a lack of ability to get the game out everywhere it could find an audience (as well as small returns on each expansion) and you can have games targeting Japan on other than Japan's leading consoles.
 

Pooroomoo

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,972
XX is the 5th MH game on the 3DS and released in its 6th year on the market. It also is a spin off to an expansion. You can include it but I mean, its just cherry picking. The only relevant MH titles to be lookig at on 3DS MH4 and MHXX and even MHXX is a spinoff.

No matter how you slice it MH never came close to 4.5m per release on 3DS. But there is no way any platform could support the amount of MH Capcom put out on 3DS without declinea.
I think you meant MHX
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,171
Hmmm, that's your take on it. Here's another assumption : If I wanted a new MH on Switch so bad and was a hardcore fan of the franchise, I'd have jump on MHXX to prove I'm willing to support the licence on Switch.
I mean, no you wouldn't, but let's get past that.

Let's assume then, that the hardest of hardcore are double dipping on the exact same Monster Hunter they played roughly 5 months prior to buying and playing the 3DS version because they really want the NEXT NEXT Monster Hunter out on Switch without just assuming that Capcom will likely do it in some form regardless, a very specific mindset. 2 million people aren't going to suddenly pay for the exact same game that essentially releasing again in less than half a year on a console that had been supply constrained for the longest while. It was a strategy that had paid off with 3DS/Wii U to an extent, but that was because it was the only way to do it, and it didn't have this newer, prettier looking Monster Hunter game on the horizon that is trying to get their attention.

However, that's still about over 200k sales. And that's still above Capcom's expectations somehow. So that test is "passed".

not niche status ;0

It seems you want me to put XX on a different category only because it sold considerably less than the others...
Actually, why didn't you put in 3U?
 
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Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
The thing is also to remember that a lot of niche games aren't going to benefit as much from a higher installed base. Throw in (possibly false) assumptions about a dedicated niche and a lack of ability to get the game out everywhere it could find an audience (as well as small returns on each expansion) and you can have games targeting Japan on other than Japan's leading consoles.

Yeah, that's true I guess. It's not a great prospect for the Switch in those cases though.
 

Pooroomoo

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,972
Yup.

I mean, even the comgnet comparison for World is using XX because the game has no hope of matching any of the other games.

It's just weird to toss in XX. World is MH5. It should be compared to MH4.
People are just trying to lower the bar so they can say MHW was a success no matter what scenario happens. In the end the real comparison from a business point of view should be comparing 2 years of MH on 3DS (MH4 + MH4U expansion) vs 2 years of MHW (PS4+XB1+PC+DLCs + if there is a Switch MH game using these assets within that time frame).
 

Ikaruga

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,055
Austria
Switch showed unexpected high bumps for Christmas for current install base. If week 52 had a softer than usually drop too from other Nintendo systems because of different demographics, things wouldn't be different for week 1.

Maybe retailers are addicted to mediocre numbers of last years and were afraid to take the risk of extra stocking. There were severe bombs lately.
This system in Japan really sucks, I think the Publisher should take care about bad selling games and not the stores themselves. Like it's handled here, if it doesn't sell through within 3 months it's returned to the publisher or the publisher pays for a price cut. It's in the Publishers interest too, you can't sell what's not available...
 

vala

Member
Oct 25, 2017
784
But there is a good reason it sold considerably less... So, when doing averages of series, you would count Pokemon Ultra same as Sun and Moon? You would count for COD as part of the average how much the Vita COD sold? By that same logic, PS is on a downwards crashing course, I mean, look how much less PS4 Pro has sold vs. the PS4... They're both overall the same category after all, and no they are not the same console. Would you count all RE games to make an average in order to demonstrate what the average of a RE game should sell?
Sorry man, i know nothing about Pokemon. To be honest i don't understand your COD and PS4 comparison.
BTW, for some reason, i completely forgot about the existence of 3G.
Ok, here are different groups for your enjoyment:
All MH games on 3ds: 3G (1.9m), 4, 4G, X, XX, Stories (0.3m): average: 2.35 million
All action games including the expansions: average 2.56 million
All action games without the expasions: average 3.65 million (This is the correct one, right?)
All action games that are expansions: average 2.16 million
EDIT: Fuck, i didn't know about Monster Hunter Diary: Poka Poka Airu Village DX which sold only 0.1 million LOL
Now the average of all 3DS games is only 2 million!
 
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Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,487
People are just trying to lower the bar so they can say MHW was a success no matter what scenario happens. In the end the real comparison from a business point of view should be comparing 2 years of MH on 3DS (MH4 + MH4U expansion) vs 2 years of MHW (PS4+XB1+PC+DLCs + if there is a Switch MH game using these assets within that time frame).

I don't agree with what you are saying either. The game obviously has different expectations from Capcom. It doesn't have to match 4+4U to be a success or as a true comparison. (And really, they cranked out 4, 4U, X and XX using largely the same asset base anyway, that's going to be impossible to match)

All I'm saying is MHW is MH5 and the o ly relevant comparison is MH4. The fact that we are comparing it to other things is becasuse the game has no hope of matching MH4 in Japan. But it doesn't have to to be a success because the goal was to expand worldwide.
 

Jpop

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,655
I don't agree with what you are saying either. The game obviously has different expectations from Capcom. It doesn't have to match 4+4U to be a success or as a true comparison. (And really, they cranked out 4, 4U, X and XX using largely the same asset base anyway, that's going to be impossible to match)

All I'm saying is MHW is MH5 and the o ly relevant comparison is MH4. The fact that we are comparing it to other things is becasuse the game has no hope of matching MH4 in Japan. But it doesn't have to to be a success because the goal was to expand worldwide.

If it doesn't match Japan + WW Sales of handled versions it is a misfire.

I think people are seriously underestimating how much this needs to sell WW to match the handheld versions.
 

Alrus

Member
Oct 25, 2017
859
Belgium
Considering the business model they're going for with MHW (moving away from yearly iterations, at least that's how I understood it) I feel it will be kinda difficult to evaluate as far as success goes because we'll be lacking datas. It'll be easy to spin it as a success or a disappointment depending on what you're gunning for.
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,487
If it doesn't match Japan + WW Sales of handled versions it is a misfire.

I think people are seriously underestimating how much this needs to sell WW to match the handheld versions.

If it does 2m in Japan it needs 2.1m worldwide to match MH4 original release and 3.5m to match MH4 Japan + MH4U ROTW. So basically the performance in Japan is gonna be pivotal. But pretty much I dont see how this game doesn't at least match MH4 in sales.

Considering the business model they're going for with MHW (moving away from yearly iterations, at least that's how I understood it) I feel it will be kinda difficult to evaluate as far as success goes because we'll be lacking datas. It'll be easy to spin it as a success or a disappointment depending on what you're gunning for.

There is nothing implying they are moving away from yearly iterations. We dont know yet.
 
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