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Media Create Sales: Week 52, 2017 (Dec 25 - Dec 31)

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Deleted member 21

User requested account closure
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Oct 24, 2017
1,559
Alright, let me make one thing clear.

We have data. We have history. We have facts.

None of you get to define what success means - because there is an objective truth to what success is thanks to said data, history and facts. Trying to downplay the success of something in any way just because it doesn't work in favor of an argument you are making will not be tolerated.

If someone is going to seriously argue again that Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - a mainstream first-party product that not only outsold plenty of titles in Japan but made an impact outside of it as well - is a niche title just because you Feel Like It™ , you'll receive a ban that goes beyond what we've given out so far in this thread. This is not us dictating what you are allowed to post or not; this is us wanting to stop with semantics bullshit that fills up the thread and serves no real purpose other than riling users up against each other.

I also say this as a future warning to a lot of Nintendo-attached users in regards to Monster Hunter World; some of the posts towards Capcom have been pretty bad in the past and while yes, having ignored the Switch in its software planning might have been a mistake, it does not mean that the company is ruined or irredeemable; this is a business and Capcom made a business decision. Wether you agree with it or not is one thing; painting them as doomed is ironically exactly what people critical about Nintendo did during the Wii U years. It just creates bad discussions, and I hope we can avoid that bullshit when MHW finally launches.

I really want this thread to get its shit together before MHW launches.

Back to topic.
 
Ryng™

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
Sphinx said:
Once things have stabilized and supply has met demand.

what do you guys think Switch will be doing per week in the first half of 2018? I think a reasonable figure would be 30~35k regularly with mid-low 20's on historically bad weeks.

one thing is sure, it REALLY shouldn't reach the lows of >15k
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lol.

Switch baseline will be at worst 60/70K per week, most likely more
 
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Sphinx said:
Once things have stabilized and supply has met demand.

what do you guys think Switch will be doing per week in the first half of 2018? I think a reasonable figure would be 30~35k regularly with mid-low 20's on historically bad weeks.

one thing is sure, it REALLY shouldn't reach the lows of >15k
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

It was doing that when it was severely supply-constrained. >50k as a baseline should be a very safe bet.
 

Marukoban

Self-requested ban
Banned
Oct 29, 2017
2,298
Sphinx said:
woah, no way

I can't see any piece of hardware selling 60/70k on weeks where no relevant software is released for it. (something all pieces of hardware experience sooner or later)
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Uhm ... What do you think DS and 3DS did weekly without any major software release?
It's not going to hit 20M LTD if the baseline is mere 30k.
For what it's worth DS consistently sold 100k+ a week at its peak.
 
Nocturnal

Nocturnal

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,321
Heartskips said:
I agree. It all depends if they can produce enough Switch. Also, these numbers just highlight how awful the third parties were last year. No defense for such a mistake by them at all.
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According to Nintendo's own estimates for this FY they are well ahead of schedule their plan would have ensured they sold about 16.8M by the end of March WW. Currently I can see Switch having sold >13M World Wide for 2017. If WSJ is to be believed it's likely they are able to ship 1.5M to 2M per month WW for January/February/March.
If they raise supply to 30% for Japan post New Year it would mean they could at the very least sell a minimum of 1.5M from now until March 31st if it remains at 25% than they'd likely sell a minimum of 1.2M by the end of March.
We know they are aiming for >20M for the next FY, lets say that 80% of that is reserved for 2018 that would leave a minimum of 16M WW for April-December 2018. With 25% of shipments going to Japan that's 4M but it would mean that they'd have to sell about 7.2M in NA and 5.8M for the RotW which to me seems a bit excessive. I'd expect next year the split between territories to change a little bit with Japan getting 30%, NA getting 40% and RotW getting another 30%. Mainly because demand in Japan is greater than any other territory and I believe that with Japanese 3rd Party's being on board Nintendo would want to prioritize Japan a bit more compared to the launch year. A 30% of supply going to Japan will lead to a minimum of 5.3M supply for Japan, 40% going to NA will give 6.4M to NA(over 5.5M for the US) and a further 5.3M for the RotW.
I think we should expect other 3rd party announcements for 2018 - I doubt Level 5 don't release YW on the Switch in 2018 and I think it would be smart for them to aim for a WW release. DQB2 is another interesting game to track, DQXI should get its launch on the Switch at some point and no doubt there is other games that could be launched that have a similar caliber - MGS:Switch Collection, some type of Final Fantasy port/spinoff, Dark Souls collection, etc Overall SE is best positioned currently in terms of 3rd party offerings to do best on the Switch, DQB, DDB2, DQXI & Octopath Traveler seems like a far more flashed out library than any other 3rd party announcement.
In terms of Nintendo, I'd be surprised if Animal Crossing isn't one of their big titles for 2018. Usually their mobile offerings are utilized to market their software - to me AC:PC's launch signaled that a Switch game should be coming soon. Outside of AC there could still be SSB, SMM or Pokemon launching next year as the other multimillion selling games that have an online component to drive paid subs. Fire Emblem & Kirby could potentially crawl to 1M while the 2017 legs of Splatoon 2, MK8D, SMO, Zelda etc should also drive future sales as the system has more availability.

Now with these type of hardware sales there is another factor, a price drop - dropping the price to Y25,000 or bundling a game for the current price would be a great way for them to drive sales during slow months or holidays. The far greater production capacity ensures that they have probably already began to sell Switch at a greater profit compared to the launch and to ensure momentum bundles or price drops could be one way to drive households to purchase multiple Switches. With the paid online potentially launching Nintendo would probably want to ensure they are able to expand the audience as much as possible to drive recurring revenue from subscriptions.
 
ggx2ac

ggx2ac

Sales Heaven or Sales Hell?
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,504
Kriegshand said:
FY11/Q4:
Click to expand...
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Let me explain it again.

FY3/2011 means, financial year ending March 2011.

What you wrote either means Financial Year 2011, 4th quarter, which I would assume is October to December because there is no month ending mentioned.

Or it means financial year ending November, 4th quarter which doesn't make sense.

###

I'll fix it up for you.

3DS Hardware sales (Worldwide)

FY3/2011
Q4: 3,61M units

FY3/2012

Q1: 0,72M units
Q2: 2,35M units
Q3: 8,36M units
Q4: 2,09M units

FY Total: 13.52M units

FY3/2013

Q1: 1,87M units
Q2: 3,19M units
Q3: 7,65M units
Q4: 1,25M units

FY Total: 13.96M units

FY3/2014

Q1: 1,40M units
Q2: 2,50M units
Q3: 7,75M units
Q4: 1,25M units

FY Total: 12.9M units
 
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rzmunch

rzmunch

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
1,800
Argentina
What was the DS and 3DS baseline in the 2nd year?

Incredible software numbers for switch. Happy for XB2, Fifa and ARMS.

HW didnt drop a lot.
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
ggx2ac said:
To add to this, Nintendo could have sold 4 million Switch units in Japan, but they prioritised overseas sales for Switch hardware which can be seen in the recent "Nintendo Switch became the fastest selling console in the US in 10 months".

It was the right call to make because Japanese third parties were too slow to bring new games to the Switch while western third party games from indies or AAA made up a large proportion of third party software that Nintendo has likely made a good chunk of revenue from software sales overseas compared to Japan.
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Mine was a more general reasoning about the difference in impact between Switch and 3DS not limited to the first 10 months/first year but looking beyond.
Essentially the evolution of Nintendo's operating income* in the coming fiscal years compared to the recent past will be eyes-opening.

Also I want to clarify that I cited the US market, not just because Switch outsold 3DS by roughly 1 million units in the same time frame, but because 3DS 2011 YTD was its peak in US due to the fact that the emergency price cut "drugged" 3DS sales but the console could never gain a successful momentum through it like it happened in Japan (where it became the third best selling console ever).
This is important because I expect to some extent the same pattern in other western markets.

End of off-topic.

EDIT:
* To add to the matter: not many talk about it yet (not even Nintendo lol) but the online subscription fee and in general the online services will be of pivotal importance for Nintendo and I hope the company realize it and act in accordance.
The online subscription fees could potentially bring Nintendo hundreds of millions in revenue yearly.
 
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Mr Swine

Mr Swine

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
6,043
Sweden
Impressive numbers for Switch hardware and software but what are PS4 owners buying for their console? Are they all waiting for MonHun?

I do hope that Switch baseline is high with no games released but I fear that it will be around 35-45k
 

Deleted member 9971

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,743
Nibel said:
Alright, let me make one thing clear.

We have data. We have history. We have facts.

None of you get to define what success means - because there is an objective truth to what success is thanks to said data, history and facts. Trying to downplay the success of something in any way just because it doesn't work in favor of an argument you are making will not be tolerated.

If someone is going to seriously argue again that Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - a mainstream first-party product that not only outsold plenty of titles in Japan but made an impact outside of it as well - is a niche title just because you Feel Like It™ , you'll receive a ban that goes beyond what we've given out so far in this thread. This is not us dictating what you are allowed to post or not; this is us wanting to stop with semantics bullshit that fills up the thread and serves no real purpose other than riling users up against each other.

I also say this as a future warning to a lot of Nintendo-attached users in regards to Monster Hunter World; some of the posts towards Capcom have been pretty bad in the past and while yes, having ignored the Switch in its software planning might have been a mistake, it does not mean that the company is ruined or irredeemable; this is a business and Capcom made a business decision. Wether you agree with it or not is one thing; painting them as doomed is ironically exactly what people critical about Nintendo did during the Wii U years. It just creates bad discussions, and I hope we can avoid that bullshit when MHW finally launches.

I really want this thread to get its shit together before MHW launches.

Back to topic.
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Click to shrink...
Agreed especially about the first part not everything needs to be a multimillion seller to be succesfull otherwise some series would be dead already. And 2 has a nice change to outsell the first 2 world wide wise. Some expectations are too high.

Last part also btw, Switch is doing mighty fine wether a MHW port comes later or not (or another MH) the Switch will keep truckin on. So i don't get the concern or port begging theres plenty of good stuff on Switch and still comin.

Thank you hopefully this will keep the discussion neat.
 
ggx2ac

ggx2ac

Sales Heaven or Sales Hell?
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,504
Kriegshand said:
ggx2ac: Thanks!
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I made a mistake with the FY3/2013 which it should be the peak year for the 3DS, Nintendo shipped 13.96M units. That is the best that Nintendo could do in a FY.

Kimishima is hoping Switch will sell 20M in FY3/2019. This is why the potential sales for Switch is going to be much higher and it won't be long until Switch overtakes 3DS sales launch aligned.
 
Oregano

Oregano

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Oct 25, 2017
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The rest of the calendar year remains to be seen but I do think Switch could be in for a rough Q1 considering Mario + Rabbids is the only relevant release it has.

DQ Builders is the only other release that could even hit 100k if I'm not mistaken?
 

Deleted member 2791

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Oct 25, 2017
19,054
Oregano said:
The rest of the calendar year remains to be seen but I do think Switch could be in for a rough Q1 considering Mario + Rabbids is the only relevant release it has.

DQ Builders is the only other release that could even hit 100k if I'm not mistaken?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Depends on when Kirby is releasing, but otherwise probably yeah.
 
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Oregano said:
The rest of the calendar year remains to be seen but I do think Switch could be in for a rough Q1 considering Mario + Rabbids is the only relevant release it has.

DQ Builders is the only other release that could even hit 100k if I'm not mistaken?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Come on Oregano, 5 days to wait, you can do it :p
 
SinCityAssassin

SinCityAssassin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,172
Oregano said:
The rest of the calendar year remains to be seen but I do think Switch could be in for a rough Q1 considering Mario + Rabbids is the only relevant release it has.

DQ Builders is the only other release that could even hit 100k if I'm not mistaken?
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Depends whether or not a Switch audience will buy Bayonetta like in the PS3 days. Skyrim and Doom are also within Q1, though I don't imagine too much success for either.

That said, always wait for the direct.
 
schuelma

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
Great software week for Switch. Anything remotely attractive is selling. This weeks numbers will be interesting given the shortage reports.

Xenoverse 2 should hit 100K next week

MH XX reemerges and has quietly kept selling all month- will surpass MH 3 Ultimate Wii U next week, which I remember was another arbitrary metric some pointed to.

Xenoblade 2 doing really well- with enough stock it should rise next week. I bet its at or close to 200K at end of month when December digital are added.
 
schuelma

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
SinCItyAssassin said:
Depends whether or not a Switch audience will buy Bayonetta like in the PS3 days. Skyrim and Doom are also within Q1, though I don't imagine too much success for either.

That said, always wait for the direct.
Click to expand...
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It will be interesting but I certainly don't see sales cratering- hardware is still not exactly widely available and 2017 software is clearly still very appealing.

Q2 definitely needs to be better though, and I expect it to.
 
Oregano

Oregano

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Oct 25, 2017
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Laplasakos

Laplasakos

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,275
schuelma said:
Great software week for Switch. Anything remotely attractive is selling. This weeks numbers will be interesting given the shortage reports.

Xenoverse 2 should hit 100K next week

MH XX reemerges and has quietly kept selling all month- will surpass MH 3 Ultimate Switch next week, which I remember was another arbitrary metric some pointed to.

Xenoblade 2 doing really well- with enough stock it should rise next week. I bet its at or close to 200K at end of month when December digital are added.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

NSW got MH3 Ultimate?
 
Braaier

Braaier

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
13,237
I'm so happy for Xenoblade's success. I had a lot of doubt about the game prior to release, but I still picked it up because I was a big fan of XB1 (not so much XBX) and I am loving it. Yes, it has its faults and can be a little cingey at times, but it's so much fun to play.

While I wasn't a fan of XBX, Nintendo really should remaster it for the Switch. I think with a viable platform and a better hook than XB2 (skells) it could find some success.
 
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Oregano said:
It could come right at the tail end of Q1.



You're not going to get a lot of stuff on a 2 month turnaround(or less). There might be one or two, but it's likely that announcements will be for Q2 releases at the earliest.
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Yes not a lot of stuff, but Kirby is a big seller and we still need to hear about Tales and Taiko. Minecraft could also have a physical release during Q1.
 
Kriegshand

Kriegshand

Member
Oct 28, 2017
516
ggx2ac said:
Kimishima is hoping Switch will sell 20M in FY3/2019. This is why the potential sales for Switch is going to be much higher and it won't be long until Switch overtakes 3DS sales launch aligned.
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Nintendo needs a strong upcoming lineup which has to appeal to the western and japanese audiences to achieve these results. Ignoring the current rumors there has to be a direct because otherwise Nintendo has no arguments supporting their forecast at the end of january. Just looking at the numbers you could think the switch is following a similar sales pattern like the 3DS but with stronger sales in the west and weaker sales in japan.
 
schuelma

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
Lelouch0612 said:
Yes not a lot of stuff, but Kirby is a big seller and we still need to hear about Tales and Taiko. Minecraft could also have a physical release during Q1.
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End of March stuff is possible, especially for Kirby which has already unveiled, or Taiko Drum which doesn't need a ton of pre-release hype. But I don't think Tales would have that short of a lead in time from announcement to release and Minecraft is totally dependent on when the big update is ready for Switch.
 
Puroresu_kid

Puroresu_kid

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
9,465
Switch software sales are very impressive.

Seem to have a real engaging audience buying multiple titles.
 
schuelma

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
Laplasakos said:
MH3 Ultimate is at 225k(Famitsu) so it probably won't be the next week. But maybe it's already there with digital. I remember most people were comparing XX NSW with P3HD though (before it's launch, because there is no chance it will reach P3HD sales now).
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Its less than 1k away with digital on famitsu.
 
zroid

zroid

One Winged Slayer
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Oct 25, 2017
5,785
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Xenobomb legging it out!

edit: thank you Nibel for being a voice of reason, much love
 
SinCityAssassin

SinCityAssassin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,172
Laplasakos said:
MH3 Ultimate is at 225k(Famitsu) so it probably won't be the next week. But maybe it's already there with digital. I remember most people were comparing XX NSW with P3HD though (before it's launch, because there is no chance it will reach P3HD sales now).
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With Digital, MHXX reached 200k a few weeks beforehand, so it can get there by next week.
 
LOCK

LOCK

Member
Oct 25, 2017
465
Kriegshand said:
FY11/Q4: 3,61
FY12/Q1: 0,72
FY12/Q2: 2,35
FY12/Q3: 8,36
FY12/Q4: 2,09
FY13/Q1: 1,87
FY13/Q2: 3,19
FY13/Q3: 7,65
FY13/Q4: 1,25
FY14/Q1: 1,40
FY14/Q2: 2,50
FY14/Q3: 7,75
FY14/Q4: 1,25
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

ggx2ac said:
Let me explain it again.

FY3/2011 means, financial year ending March 2011.

What you wrote either means Financial Year 2011, 4th quarter, which I would assume is October to December because there is no month ending mentioned.

Or it means financial year ending November, 4th quarter which doesn't make sense.

###

I'll fix it up for you.

3DS Hardware sales (Worldwide)

FY3/2011
Q4: 3,61M units

FY3/2012

Q1: 0,72M units
Q2: 2,35M units
Q3: 8,36M units
Q4: 2,09M units

FY Total: 13.52M units

FY3/2013

Q1: 1,87M units
Q2: 3,19M units
Q3: 7,65M units
Q4: 1,25M units

FY Total: 13.96M units

FY3/2014

Q1: 1,40M units
Q2: 2,50M units
Q3: 7,75M units
Q4: 1,25M units

FY Total: 12.9M units
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Kriegshand that is the standard practice when mentioning quarterly numbers. ggx2ac your both listing the same numbers in different formats.
 
Aostia82

Aostia82

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,366
SinCItyAssassin said:
Depends whether or not a Switch audience will buy Bayonetta like in the PS3 days. Skyrim and Doom are also within Q1, though I don't imagine too much success for either.

That said, always wait for the direct.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...


Well I am not sure that a significant seller can be announced in January 11th and be released within March 31
I totally admit Nintendo being capable of shirt advise to release time gaps but seems too much even for that

Now, if the minecraft retail version will hit the market in q1, if the ubi game will be seen more as a Mario title that a rabbids one, if Bayonetta collection will see os3 numbers...

But those are a lot of if...
 

Spine Crawler

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
10,228
Oregano said:
The rest of the calendar year remains to be seen but I do think Switch could be in for a rough Q1 considering Mario + Rabbids is the only relevant release it has.

DQ Builders is the only other release that could even hit 100k if I'm not mistaken?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
mario x rabbids can be a big seller. mario odyssey and mario kart sold really well and mario x rabbids is a game that is not far away from those titles qualitywise (and arguably the best looking). the japanese will probably not know what rabbids are but with good marketing it will do really well (potentially even 500k plus).

i would wait for the nintendo direct for the rest of the lineup. nintendo can easily just drop a few wiiu ports (mario maker, nsmbu, mario 3d world, donkey kong tropical freeze, pikmin 3 to name a few) just to fill the gaps.
 

Spine Crawler

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
10,228
Aostia82 said:
Well I am not sure that a significant seller can be announced in January 11th and be released within March 31
I totally admit Nintendo being capable of shirt advise to release time gaps but seems too much even for that

Now, if the minecraft retail version will hit the market in q1, if the ubi game will be seen more as a Mario title that a rabbids one, if Bayonetta collection will see os3 numbers...

But those are a lot of if...
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
switch itself was just teased with a short video in october and fully announced beginning of january and released in march. and mario x rabbid is a mario title more than a rabbids title.
 

Marukoban

Self-requested ban
Banned
Oct 29, 2017
2,298
Oregano said:
The rest of the calendar year remains to be seen but I do think Switch could be in for a rough Q1 considering Mario + Rabbids is the only relevant release it has.

DQ Builders is the only other release that could even hit 100k if I'm not mistaken?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Jan-Mar has historically been Nintendo weak period.
Nintendo rarely release any relevant software in Q1 + not much third party committed resources early enough for Switch.
 
rzmunch

rzmunch

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
1,800
Argentina
Braaier said:
I'm so happy for Xenoblade's success. I had a lot of doubt about the game prior to release, but I still picked it up because I was a big fan of XB1 (not so much XBX) and I am loving it. Yes, it has its faults and can be a little cingey at times, but it's so much fun to play.

While I wasn't a fan of XBX, Nintendo really should remaster it for the Switch. I think with a viable platform and a better hook than XB2 (skells) it could find some success.
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Click to shrink...
I want a remaster of XB. But I dont knlw if they will do it after the 3ds one.
 
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