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CaviarMeths

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
10,655
Western Canada
Yup,on that note Sega has had a poll on twitter the last few days about which platform people are buying Valkyria Chronicles 4 on and unless something changes in the next hour or so it might say something about platform demographics:



FKx8StZ.jpg

Not sure how much I'd read into this because ain't no way in hell that XB1 is going to maintain a 2:1 platform split with PS4 on an anime aesthetic JRPG. Gonna be closer to 10:1.
 

Apex88

Member
Jan 15, 2018
1,428
It is not PS4's baseline tho.
How long are people expecting PS4 to be in the 40k-70k range?

Looking in from the outside, it looks like PS4 now has a wide ranging library that justifies a purchase, even for casual gamers. A bit like the PS2 back in the day. Monster Hunter World was just the final big push to open people's eyes.

Titles like Soul Calibur 6, Ace Combat 7, No No Kuni 2. They may not do big numbers individually (I've no idea), but they should be solid titles that appeal to different demographics, and keep PS4 sales ticking along.
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,172
Titles like Soul Calibur 6, Ace Combat 7, No No Kuni 2. They may not do big numbers individually (I've no idea), but they should be solid titles that appeal to different demographics, and keep PS4 sales ticking along.
You can say that about the other quality releases that could've held interest and heightened the PS4 baseline last year when Dragon Quest was out.
 

Apex88

Member
Jan 15, 2018
1,428
SWITCH GAMES, Ranking Sales, Japan, 2018 (Feb 05 - Feb 11)

japanese-gamers-lineup-to-buy-the-new-video-game-nintendo-switch-by-picture-id647350516






Dengeki: 54 games (+2)
dengekibunko_logo.png

01 - Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} – 2,079,325
02 - Super Mario Odyssey (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} – 1,543,950
03 - Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} – 1,374,148
04 - The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} – 784,394 (111,135 explorer edition)
05 - 1-2-Switch (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} – 423,215
06 - ARMS (Nintendo) {2017.06.16} – 390,072
07 - Pokken Tournament DX (Pokemon Co.) {2017.09.22} – 225,758
08 - Monster Hunter Double Cross: Nintendo Switch Ver. (Capcom) {2017.08.25} – 208,486
09 - Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (Nintendo) (2017.12.01) - 176,728
10 - Super Bomberman R (Konami) {2017.03.03} – 156,035
11 - Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle (Nintendo) {2018.01.18} - 155,022
12 - Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 for Nintendo Switch (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.09.07} – 139,722
13 - FIFA 18 (Electronic Arts) {2017.09.29} – 104, 546
14 - Puyo Puyo Tetris S (Sega) {2017.03.03} – 67,576
15 - Sumikko Gurashi: Sumikko Park e Youkoso (Nippon Columbia) (2017.12.07) - 59,867
16 - Snipperclips plus (Nintendo) {2017.11.10} - 56,090
17 - Fire Emblem Warriors (Koei Tecmo) {2017.09.28} – 53,791
18 - Dragon Quest Heroes I & II for Nintendo Switch (Square Enix) {2017.03.03} – 53,066
19 - One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 - Deluxe Edition (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.12.21} - 32,236 (+1)
20 - Seiken Densetsu Collection (Square Enix) {2017.06.01} – 31,643
21 - Ultra Street Fighter II: The Final Challengers (Capcom) {2017.05.26} – 25,018
22 - Dragon Quest X: All in One Package (Square Enix) {2017.09.21} – 21,160
23 - The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (Bethesda Softworks) {2018.02.01} - 19,122 (+1)
24 - Dragon Quest X: 5000-nen no Harukanaru Kokyou e Online (Square Enix) (2017.11.16) - 18,114
25 - Minna de Wai Wai! Spelunker (Square Enix) {2017.04.20} – 12,631
26 - Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star (Marvelous) {2017.07.20} – 11,560
27 - Gear·Club Unlimited (3 goo) {2017.12.14} - 11,411
28 - Resident Evil: Revelations Collection (Capcom) (2017.11.30) - 8,898
29 - LEGO City Undercover (Warner Entertainment Japan) {2017.06.29} – 8,884
30 - Sonic Forces (Sega) {2017.11.9} - 7,529
31 - One Piece: Unlimited World Red – Deluxe Edition (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.08.24} – 7,374
32 - Atelier Lydie & Suelle: The Alchemists and the Mysterious Paintings (Koei Tecmo) {2017.12.21} - 6,684
33 - Lost Sphear (Square Enix) {2017.10.12} – 6,274
34 - Cars 3: Driven to Win (Warner Entertainment Japan) {2017.07.20} – 6,163
35 - Disgaea 5 Complete (Nippon Ichi Software) {2017.03.03} – 5,968
36 - Nights of Azure 2: Bride of the New Moon (Koei Tecmo) {2017.08.31} – 5,470
37 - Nobunaga's Ambition: Taishi (Koei Tecmo) (2017.11.30) - 5.400
38 - I am Setsuna (Square Enix) {2017.03.03} – 4,525
39 - Resident Evil: Revelations (Capcom) (2017.11.30) - 3,095
40 - LEGO Marvel Super Heroes 2 (Warner Entertainment Japan) {2018.02.01} - 2,962 (+5)
41 - Warriors Orochi 3: Ultimate (KOEI TECMO) {2017.11.9} - 2, 940
42 - Azure Striker Gunvolt: Striker Pack (Inti Creates) {2017.08.31} – 2,913
43 - Champion Jockey Special (Koei Tecmo) {2017.09.14} – 2,744
44 - NBA 2K18 (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2017.10.17} – 2.669
45 - LEGO Worlds (Warner Entertainment Japan) {2017.11.22} - 2,261
46 - Nobunaga's Ambition: Sphere of Influence with Power-Up Kit (Koei Tecmo) {2017.03.03} - 2,050
47 - Dynasty Warriors 8: Empires (Koei Tecmo) {2017.11.9} - 2,007
48 - Monopoly for Nintendo Switch (Ubi Soft) {2017.11.09} - 1,938
49 - Samurai Warriors: Sanada Maru (Koei Tecmo) {2017.11.9} - 1,808
50 - Winning Post 8 2017 (Koei Tecmo) {2017.09.14} – 1,517
51 - Gal Metal! (DMM Games) {2018.02.08} - 1,373 (NEW) (cause Vinnk and me :p)
52 - The LEGO Ninjago Movie Game (Warner Entertainment Japan) {2017.06.29} – 1,217
53 - Cave Story + (Pikii) {2018.02.08} - 1,167 (NEW)
54 - VOEZ (FlyHigh Works) {2018.01.25} - 1,122


Highlights:

- M+R over 150k and soon in top 10
- OP: PW3 win 1 place (19), Skyrim (23) and Lego MSH2 5 places (40)
- 2 new games, Gal Metal! (51) and Cave Story + (53)


SWITCH GAMES, Ranking Sales, Japan, 2018 (Jan 29 - Feb 04)
https://www.resetera.com/posts/4300203/

Is there a list like this for PS4?
 

Vena

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,441
How long are people expecting PS4 to be in the 40k-70k range?

Looking in from the outside, it looks like PS4 now has a wide ranging library that justifies a purchase, even for casual gamers. A bit like the PS2 back in the day. Monster Hunter World was just the final big push to open people's eyes.

Titles like Soul Calibur 6, Ace Combat 7, No No Kuni 2. They may not do big numbers individually (I've no idea), but they should be solid titles that appeal to different demographics, and keep PS4 sales ticking along.

People's eyes weren't closed, the broader market does not find the product appealing and its software library has not been appealing. Look at the rest of the software, MHW didn't open any one's eyes to it or its existence.
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
Not sure how much I'd read into this because ain't no way in hell that XB1 is going to maintain a 2:1 platform split with PS4 on an anime aesthetic JRPG. Gonna be closer to 10:1.

Sure, it's not going to be 1:1 but the XBO to PS4 ratio is roughly in line with their overall install base whereas Switch is vastly disproportionate, which probably indicates that a Strategy RPG with Anime aesthetics is something that resonates well with Switch owners.
 

Peace

Alt Account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
978
France
Mario & Rabbids isn't AAA according to Ubi either but its still a relatively big effort fot a launch. I think it's fairly obvious I'm not talkig about $100m AAA titles but stuff like Octopath would qualify.

Bomberman was just an example to say you can make your investment back easier on a launch game.

I would qualify M&R as a big effort, but certainly not Bomberman, it was a small effort, especially before the patch.

On the matter, do you think we're still at "launch period" for the Switch ? When does that end ? The competition on Switch is stiff today, even if 2018 isn't as strong as 2017 in terms of killer apps, you still have a nice amount of games coming. Also, there is a restricted amount of space in a release calendar at launch, you can't expect to have everyone throw their games into Switch at launch and them to get results as good as Super Bomberman R. Konami made some quick, easy bucks with a low effort and good timing, good on them, but the cake is only that big at launch. The more games you have at launch, smaller are the pieces the publishers have to share.

Super Bomberman R and USF2 had great sales number on Switch thanks to the lack of a competition from third party back then.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
How long are people expecting PS4 to be in the 40k-70k range?

Looking in from the outside, it looks like PS4 now has a wide ranging library that justifies a purchase, even for casual gamers. A bit like the PS2 back in the day. Monster Hunter World was just the final big push to open people's eyes.

Titles like Soul Calibur 6, Ace Combat 7, No No Kuni 2. They may not do big numbers individually (I've no idea), but they should be solid titles that appeal to different demographics, and keep PS4 sales ticking along.

Those games will not be system sellers.

PS2 was a mainstream gaming device back then. PS4 is not. All kid/family-oriented games have bombed or underperformed.
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
I would qualify M&R as a big effort, but certainly not Bomberman, it was a small effort, especially before the patch.

On the matter, do you think we're still at "launch period" for the Switch ? When does that end ? The competition on Switch is stiff today, even if 2018 isn't as strong as 2017 in terms of killer apps, you still have a nice amount of games coming. Also, there is a restricted amount of space in a release calendar at launch, you can't expect to have everyone throw their games into Switch at launch and them to get results as good as Super Bomberman R. Konami made some quick, easy bucks with a low effort and good timing, good on them, but the cake is only that big at launch. The more games you have at launch, smaller are the pieces the publishers have to share.

Super Bomberman R and USF2 had great sales number on Switch thanks to the lack of a competition from third party back then.

Super Bomberman R has had a long tail, there's no real evidence that it was only a success at launch.

I'd also say competition is definitely not stiff on Switch. There's very few original third party games on the platform.
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
I don't expect Labo to have insane pre orders at all. I think it should have a quiet opening and sell steadily for a long time, with some big boosts during the holidays weeks.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,398
Sure, it's not going to be 1:1 but the XBO to PS4 ratio is roughly in line with their overall install base whereas Switch is vastly disproportionate, which probably indicates that a Strategy RPG with Anime aesthetics is something that resonates well with Switch owners.
fans of nintendo are likely more active on certain parts of social media. I figure following Sega and a JRPG might be one of those areas It's probably disproportionate.
Even if they released on the same day, I think the ps4 version might do best WW. It'd be close though imo.

(now watch it come out late on switch and blow up and make me look dumb.)
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
fans of nintendo are likely more active on certain parts of social media. I figure following Sega and a JRPG might be one of those areas It's probably disproportionate.
Even if they released on the same day, I think the ps4 version might do best WW. It'd be close though imo.

(now watch it come out late on switch and blow up and make me look dumb.)
it's coming late in Japan (summer for switch), but probably not in the west.
 

Pooroomoo

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,972
fans of nintendo are likely more active on certain parts of social media. I figure following Sega and a JRPG might be one of those areas It's probably disproportionate.
Even if they released on the same day, I think the ps4 version might do best WW. It'd be close though imo.

(now watch it come out late on switch and blow up and make me look dumb.)
Well, I hope you end up looking dumb (nothing personal :-))
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
fans of nintendo are likely more active on certain parts of social media. I figure following Sega and a JRPG might be one of those areas It's probably disproportionate.
Even if they released on the same day, I think the ps4 version might do best WW. It'd be close though imo.

(now watch it come out late on switch and blow up and make me look dumb.)

PS4 will definitely be ahead by a decent margin, it's got the audience for the series already and it's launching on PS4 before Switch in Japan.
 

Spine Crawler

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
10,228
online polls are so useless... the switch version seems to be aimed at a much later release date so unless it pulls a xenoverse 2 it wont sell more than the ps4 version. i could see it performing better than the xbox one version at least in japan though
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
online polls are so useless... the switch version seems to be aimed at a much later release date so unless it pulls a xenoverse 2 it wont sell more than the ps4 version. i could see it performing better than the xbox one version at least in japan though

Switch version is supposed to be day and date in the west(where the poll was aimed at) and I don't think the XBO version is launching in Japan.
 

Spine Crawler

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
10,228
It is still perplexing to me how little support from third parties the switch is getting. I know everybody was not expecting the switch to perform as well as it has, and it will take some time for them to have something ready to ship, but no announcements, hints or anything. I doubt Nintendo is going to have a 2 hour direct full of games to announce. Very weird.
as many people have said.. this thing is the successor of one of the worst selling consoles for nintendo.. so nobody should be surprised that third party are shunning the switch. it looks like indies are having a lot of success though..
 

MoonFrog

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,969
I know it's coming late.

I said even if it was day and date, I would lean PS4
The parentheses part made it confusing. Made it sound like you were expecting neither of those things but I see you meant you weren't expecting the latter to happen despite the former? I was reading the and differently.
 

Spine Crawler

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
10,228
Switch version is supposed to be day and date in the west(where the poll was aimed at) and I don't think the XBO version is launching in Japan.
i still think ps4 version will sell more since the first game got a remaster on PS4 and blue revolution also got a ps4 release while the switch audience does not really know this game. Between XBONE and Switch its a close call. Blue Revolution was released on Xbox One but it doesnt seem to be a critical darling so many Xbox One gamers may have been burned by the series.
but not ww?
lol, why the distinction...
because xbox one still has a much higher installbase than the switch? most of the japanese third parties are rather releasing xbox one games because switch still is on wiiu level (which may change soon)
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
i still think ps4 version will sell more since the first game got a remaster on PS4 and blue revolution also got a ps4 release while the switch audience does not really know this game. Between XBONE and Switch its a close call. Blue Revolution was released on Xbox One but it doesnt seem to be a critical darling so many Xbox One gamers may have been burned by the series.

I don't disagree PS4 will sell more but I think Switch sales will be notably better than XBO sales.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,398
The parentheses part made it confusing. Made it sound like you were expecting neither of those things but I see you meant you weren't expecting the latter to happen despite the former? I was reading the and differently.
I was saying I think ps4 sku will do better.
And even if it was simultaneous release I would lean PS4.

the parantheses is if I'm wrong and Switch version actaully does the best.
 

Maxina

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
3,308
What are the chances that Yokai Watch would be slighty revitalized with this new game announcement and potentially being on the Switch.
 

Spine Crawler

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
10,228
i mean the series could be perceived as a handheld game in japan as 2 and 3 are portable games. thats the only way how the switch version could outsell the ps4 version in japan.
What are the chances that Yokai Watch would be slighty revitalized with this new game announcement and potentially being on the Switch.
i dont think it will be on switch to be honest. i think it will be 3ds.. and yes it will sell pretty well but it will not reach yokai watch 2 levels. why? because 3DS will be marketed as the cheap kids option. nintendo will probably keep it afloat with some kirby and pokemon releases as well.
 

Aters

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
7,948
Looking at how Switch software is selling, it's clear consumers are thirsty for games. I'd say now is a great chance for 3rd party to make some quick and easy cash.
 

Spine Crawler

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
10,228
Looking at how Switch software is selling, it's clear consumers are thirsty for games. I'd say now is a great chance for 3rd party to make some quick and easy cash.
third parties will not make cash. they will complain about the lack of power and will refuse to port even ps3/360 games (or PS2 games for that matter). so its indie and nintendo time (which is fine from my point of view.)
 

TLZ

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,332
So looks like these Switch hardware numbers are normal now. Until we get a big game again.
 

silpheed-mcd

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,384
920.gif


3D MARIO: JAPAN LTD (gamedatalibrary)

[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land: 2.111.490
[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey: 1.648.692 (1.543.115 physical + 105.577 digital estimated by famitsu)
[N64] Super Mario 64: 1.646.558
[NDS] Super Mario 64 DS: 1.231.891
[WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2: 1.046.696
[WII] Super Mario Galaxy: 1.025.664
[NGC] Super Mario Sunshine: 789.989
[WIIU] Super Mario 3D World: 613.693 (602.234 physical +11.459 digital estimated by famitsu)


Yeah, SMO is second in 16 weeks on a new console :)

16 WEEKS


Nintendo_aeb295_675477.gif
 
Last edited:

Fularu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,609
I have no doubts the switch sku will lead sales ww for VC4, maybe even in Japan too, late or not
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
920.gif


3D MARIO: JAPAN LTD (gamedatalibrary)

[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land: 2.111.490
[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey: 1.648.692 (1.543.115 physical + 105.577 digital estimates by famitsu)
[N64] Super Mario 64: 1.646.558
[NDS] Super Mario 64 DS: 1.231.891
[WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2: 1.046.696
[WII] Super Mario Galaxy: 1.025.664
[NGC] Super Mario Sunshine: 789.989
[WIIU] Super Mario 3D World: 613.693 (602.234 physical +11.459 digital estimates by famitsu)


Yeah, SMO is second in 16 weeks on a new console :)

16 WEEKS


Nintendo_aeb295_675477.gif

At this point 3 million is a lock. Should reach 3.5 million, crazy.
 

Eolz

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
7,601
FR
Titles like Soul Calibur 6, Ace Combat 7, No No Kuni 2. They may not do big numbers individually (I've no idea), but they should be solid titles that appeal to different demographics, and keep PS4 sales ticking along.
Others have already said it, but I can't see those being system sellers at this point in time.
Especially not NNK2 which is a title made mainly for the west. Fighters also don't sell really well in Japan anymore (outside of Smash obviously, and strangely enough ARMS), and Ace Combat is a big game that people get but not a console for (outside of AC6 for obvious reasons).
I have no doubts the switch sku will lead sales ww for VC4, maybe even in Japan too, late or not
I can't see it being the case FW in Japan (due to being a late port there), but maybe after a while, a bit like Xenoverse 2...
 

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
Xenoverse 2 is the exception though, other multiplatform games have not performed as well on Switch as PS4.

The 2 that come to mind are the 2 gust games. On the other hand, you have Xenoverse 2, DQ X, most likely FIFA, One Piece Red.

Not sure how you want to evaluate the really late ports but I wouldn't call Xenoverse 2 "the exception" in any way.
 
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