Media Create Sales: Week 6, 2020 (Feb 03 - Feb 09)

z0m3le

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Oct 25, 2017
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Nintendo were really lucky that they opened up production in Vietnam when they did... Hopefully that should mitigate some of the impact that the coronavirus is having on Chinese production (though of course that's not gonna be enough on its own; I expect mass shortages from April onwards to be only partially mitigated).

Speaking of which... I wonder how much this is gonna end up impacting on PS5/Xbox Series X production as well...
Production for next generation consoles would ideally start in May, so we could have limited supply if the virus isn't dealt with until summer, which is looking likely. Could effect pricing too, so a delay to spring for PS5 and XSX is possible if the virus problem lingers, I'd assume they will release the consoles with limited supply as long as they can get 3 Million units or more out there, which would require ~5 months of manufacturing I think.
 
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Chris1964

Chris1964

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Oct 25, 2017
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Production for next generation consoles would ideally start in May, so we could have limited supply if the virus isn't dealt with until summer, which is looking likely. Could effect pricing too, so a delay to spring for PS5 and XSX is possible if the virus problem lingers, I'd assume they will release the consoles with limited supply as long as they can get 3 Million units or more out there, which would require ~5 months of manufacturing I think.
If 5 months of manufacturing were required for a few millions some consoles would be out at wild way before release date.
 
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Chris1964

Chris1964

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Oct 25, 2017
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First week retail sales for Hatsune Miku might surprise, nothing compared to expectations for such a messy release.
 
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Chris1964

Chris1964

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Mass production for next generation will start 2-3 months before release. Unless virus situation turns much worse than expected Chinese economy will have returned to normal way before then. Most factories are already at the phase of restarting to work.
 

z0m3le

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Oct 25, 2017
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If 5 months of manufacturing were required for a few millions some consoles would be out at wild way before release date.
Nintendo Switch started production in October (about 5 months before launch), at 20,000 units per day, and was able to supply retailers with 2.7 Million units by the end of March.
Yeah. For example there was a report that production of PS4 Pro started in September and it launched in November.
Production of the PS4 started in July 2013, 5 months before it's release. PS4 Pro started production as late as mid September 2016, but it was a sub model and didn't need millions of units available at launch, though holiday months, manufacturing lines are increased.
Mass production for next generation will start 2-3 months before release. Unless virus situation turns much worse than expected Chinese economy will have returned to normal way before then. Most factories are already at the phase of restarting to work.
You're very knowledgeable about this stuff in general, but do you have information to back that one up? production for holiday consoles usually start in Summer before releases.
 

K Samedi

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Oct 27, 2017
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Mass production for next generation will start 2-3 months before release. Unless virus situation turns much worse than expected Chinese economy will have returned to normal way before then. Most factories are already at the phase of restarting to work.
I'm curious, do you think the virus situation has affected a possible Nintendo Direct date? Actually I'm curious to hear the views of all the posters here about this.
 

z0m3le

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Oct 25, 2017
3,285
I'm curious, do you think the virus situation has affected a possible Nintendo Direct date? Actually I'm curious to hear the views of all the posters here about this.
The only situation I could see with this, is that they want to save a direct's effect to increase demand for units, until after they have secured more manufacturing, but that seems unlikely to me, I don't even think the effect of directs are that pronounced, and demand for Switch units while it is out of stock does also increase demand of the product in the short term anyways.
 

Mpl90

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Oct 25, 2017
1,534
First week retail sales for Hatsune Miku might surprise, nothing compared to expectations for such a messy release.
I'm getting more and more curious about its first week performance. Since we know its first day sell-through was at 60% and knowing about the current availability issues, would 60,000 - 90,000 as a range for its first week shipment (not sales) make sense? I expect SEGA to have shipped a decent amount of copy, but nothing egregious either given the series' recent history (not just Future Tone DX, but Project Diva X as well)
 
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Chris1964

Chris1964

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You're very knowledgeable about this stuff in general, but do you have information to back that one up? production for holiday consoles usually start in Summer before releases.
Assuming the information you provided for PS4 starting production in July is correct that's 4 and not 5 months of preparation. It's unlikely all production lines were working or running at full capacity for that period and 7 years have passed since then that improvements have definitely been done with rates and peaks.
 
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Chris1964

Chris1964

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I'm curious, do you think the virus situation has affected a possible Nintendo Direct date? Actually I'm curious to hear the views of all the posters here about this.
It has affected Animal Crossing but for affecting a whole direct I don't know, Nintendo has dated everything until March and Xenoblade is supposed to be a May release.
 

z0m3le

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Oct 25, 2017
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Assuming the information you provided for PS4 starting production in July is correct that's 4 and not 5 months of preparation. It's unlikely all production lines were working or running at full capacity for that period and 7 years have passed since then that improvements have definitely been done with rates and peaks.
The best public information on when PS4 production began was that components shipped to Foxconn in June 2013, initial manufacturing of retail units started shortly afterwards, and by August they started overworking interns on PS4 production, PS4 sold 4 Million units that calendar year, with up to 1 million units being made a month, and the reality of time to move production from Asia to the west (up to 6 weeks to cross the pacific) the production started in July at the latest and possibly June.

As for Nintendo Switch, the Foxconn leaker gave us very specific information about it's production. Was in mass production in October 2016 with 20k units being produced per day.

We see here that rates and peaks haven't really changed.
 
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Chris1964

Chris1964

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The best public information on when PS4 production began was that components shipped to Foxconn in June 2013, initial manufacturing of retail units started shortly afterwards, and by August they started overworking interns on PS4 production, PS4 sold 4 Million units that calendar year, with up to 1 million units being made a month, and the reality of time to move production from Asia to the west (up to 6 weeks to cross the pacific) the production started in July at the latest and possibly June.

As for Nintendo Switch, the Foxconn leaker gave us very specific information about it's production. Was in mass production in October 2016 with 20k units being produced per day.

We see here that rates and peaks haven't really changed.
At the links you provided it mentions Xbox One wouldn't start production until September the earliest. Xbox One shipments until December were 3,9m and for PS4 4,5m.
 

z0m3le

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Oct 25, 2017
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At the links you provided it mentions Xbox One wouldn't start production until September the earliest. Xbox One shipments until December were 3,9m and for PS4 4,5m.
Microsoft had other manufacturers for the Xbox one, reportedly it was being produced in Brazil (given that it cost nearly half the price of the ps4 (in Brazil) at launch, this pretty much had to be the case), and Foxconn started manufacturing the Xbox one in May 2013 according to reports. I don't have an account to read the full story link to that first link in my prior post, so I don't know the information about manufacturing on the xb1, but the production of Xbox one units in general was probably more difficult than ps4 units and likely complicated the lines, slowing them down compared to ps4 lines, especially because of Kinect.

I feel like the leak for switch production proves the point I'm trying to make about production timelines, and I still don't know where you got the information that production of a major console like the PS4 began 2 to 3 months before launch if they had 4.5Million units shipped to retailers in the west (didn't launch in Asian countries until spring) after 4 months, even though shipping across the pacific can take over a month, production ramps up slowly, they don't get up to speed until a few months into production usually.
 
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Chris1964

Chris1964

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You post links for PS4 and Xbox that nowhere indicate 5 months of production. For Microsoft both articles say mass production wouldn't start before September and for Sony that capacity could reach 1m per month at September without telling if that's the maximum or not. The only date there's for PS4 is was in production in August. PS4 Pro also shows short circle for Sony.

How Nintendo behaved pre launch is another story since expectations and the budget they wanted to devote at that phase of Switch life is different from the other two.

As for the 1 month it takes for delivering shipments by sea even Nintendo used the expensive air transportation for Switch at West during holidays 2017.
 

Piston

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Oct 25, 2017
5,686
Correct me if I'm wrong but they also need to be setting up component supply lines at this point before they can begin assembling the final product. If those component supply lines have issues now, it will affect production down the line as well.
 

z0m3le

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Oct 25, 2017
3,285
You post links for PS4 and Xbox that nowhere indicate 5 months of production. For Microsoft both articles say mass production wouldn't start before September and for Sony that capacity could reach 1m per month at September without telling if that's the maximum or not. The only date there's for PS4 is was in production in August. PS4 Pro also shows short circle for Sony.

How Nintendo behaved pre launch is another story since expectations and the budget they wanted to devote at that phase of Switch life is different from the other two.

As for the 1 month it takes for delivering shipments by sea even Nintendo used the expensive air transportation for Switch at West during holidays 2017.
"Meanwhile, volume shipments for Microsoft's Xbox One are expected to start in the third quarter, according to sources from the upstream supply chain." -This article was from mid June, Q3 refers to July or October, where does it say September production for Xbox One? Volume production means when the production reaches efficiency, like in the report above saying that PS4 would reach 1 Million units of production a month in September 2013. Since shipping takes over a month to reach the west traditionally, we are talking about 3 Million units being produced in September, October and November, August was less than this and thus needed production in July and possibly June to reach that 4.5 Million units shipped by the end of December, since the last manufactured console for the PS4 to reach retailers by the end of December in the west, would have had to be produced in November.

I don't see anything about the Xbox in the other link I posted about interns in August being abused to produce PS4s.

Correct me if I'm wrong but they also need to be setting up component supply lines at this point before they can begin assembling the final product. If those component supply lines have issues now, it will affect production down the line as well.
Yeah, this is true, we see from these links I've been posting that PS4 components shipped to Foxconn in June so the supply lines for components had to be secured in the Spring.

The article about Xbox One producing starting in May at Foxconn also would mean that components for that product were secured even earlier.

We've also just had a report about the Switch not having components secured after mid April because of the virus, so their Vietnam manufacturing is at risk of running out of Switch components at that point.

The virus could effect component supplies for next generation consoles if it isn't taken care of in early Spring, which seems unlikely. Manufacturing of next gen consoles won't start until summer, so the virus should be eradicated by then, but if it isn't taken care of until say June or July, production lines could absolutely be delayed until late Summer, which could mean that next gen consoles are very limited.
 
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Lite_Agent

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Oct 26, 2017
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Somewhere. I think.
Ha ha, SEGA is bringing Zumba Burn It Up! to Japan. Gotta get that Ring Fit Adventure money!

Summer 2020, 4 980 Yen.