• Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
  • We have made minor adjustments to how the search bar works on ResetEra. You can read about the changes here.
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
First release that can't be saved:

Left Alive

Dead or Alive 6 too but I don't anything notable was expected from this title.

Devil May Cry V runs out of time, Anthem will have a good opening.
 

Marukoban

Self-requested ban
Banned
Oct 29, 2017
2,298
Ragnarok Online mobile have been making crazy money in all SEA lol. THere is an auction for a rideable unicorn that hit 35k USD for a single item lol. It is truly insane to see gigantic Whale come out in Indonesia lol.

And the auction happens every week too lol. I heard from friends min price for auction item is in the 5 digits USD.
Playing SEA version of mobile MMORPG really surprise me at how many rich people in SEA play video games, considering we have much lower income per capita than US, Japan and even China.
Aside from Indonesian, Thai and Pinoy also have a lot of whales.
 

test_account

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,645
The vast majority of Switch/PS3 games were developed with Vita in mind. Catherine is a port of a game that was definitely developed with PS3/360 level hardware in mind.
Its possible, but do you think that they actively made the PS3 version less hardware demanding due to a Vita version? I'm under the impression that the porting process/downscaling tools were pretty effective, and that the difference in hardware power between PS3 and Vita is an acceptable gap.
 

Boiled Goose

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
9,999
Switch's first half is kind of shockingly bad from Nintendo.
NSMBU and Yoshi were rumored/reported to be 2018 games but likely delayed to fill gaps, but like 3 2D platformers, all being Mario/spin offs seems like poor planning.

Compared to how stacked the second half with on average more than one game per month, I don't get how they could mess it up so much.

But at least there's some better spring 3rd party titles that might do well

Nintendo hasn't released a major brand new single player first party game since xenoblade 2. Let that sink in.
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
Switch's first half is kind of shockingly bad from Nintendo.
NSMBU and Yoshi were rumored/reported to be 2018 games but likely delayed to fill gaps, but like 3 2D platformers, all being Mario/spin offs seems like poor planning.

Compared to how stacked the second half with on average more than one game per month, I don't get how they could mess it up so much.

But at least there's some better spring 3rd party titles that might do well
You do realise exactly how well NSMBD is selling right and the subsequent hardware sales? As far as sustained system selling software your really not going to get much better than 2D Mario games. The only notable blind spot is due to FE delay.
 

test_account

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,645
You think they made a 2011 PS3 game with a 2019 port to Vita in mind?
No, of course not :) Maybe a bit unprecise of me, but when i said "the PS3 version", i mean in regards to PS3/Vita ports in general since you talked about games being made with Vita in mind. I was thinking about those cases. I ment to say "do you think they actively made the PS3 version less demanding in the cases where they planned a Vita version?".
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
No, of course not :) Maybe a bit unprecise of me, but when i said "the PS3 version", i mean in regards to PS3/Vita ports in general since you talked about game being made with Vita in mind. I was thinking about those cases. I ment to say "do you think they actively made the PS3 version less demanding in the cases where they planned a Vita version?".

In the majority of cases yes, for most of those developers they were developing primarily for Vita with PS3(and later PS4) versions being ports of the Vita version.
 

Piscus

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,764
the-legend-of-zelda-breath-of-the-wild-climbing-concept-art.jpg.optimal.jpg
I come to this thread every week for this very post.
 
Feb 2, 2019
363
Not gonna shed a single tear over Catherine bombing on Vita, and well everywhere else because of Atlus' perplexing decision not to release it on Switch. Fuck that game and fuck the bigot behind it.

I agree on the bigot matters, but they're a lot of decent people working at Atlus that probably don't share the director awful views on transexuals and gays. You can't wish them to fail like that.

On another matters, it's been a long time I tried to understand Atlus's strategy if they ever have one. They prefer to avoid multiplatform and seem to disregard PC as being a viable platform, which is baffling and stupid in this day and age. Them not releasing games on Switch isn't the more baffling thing they've done so far.

Devil May Cry V runs out of time

What does that mean ?
 

Aters

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
7,948
Ah yes, definitely. Would like to know if other asian countries have similar consumption habits to the Japanese too, since Sony sees so much more success on the rest of the world.
Can confirm Sony is dominating the rest of Asia. I mean, what else do you expect when it took Nintendo 2 years to get the Chinese/Korean system UI language option out for Switch?
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
It's the Splatoon 2 sales since release. Seems pretty self explanatory. For reading convenience, I highlighted a few of the notable event which affected its sales.
Frankly the graph (which looks great btw) shows us the normal trajectory of a leggy game.

Basically you could translate the 1st part down to have the 2nd one.
 

Aters

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
7,948
Splatoon 3 in early 2020. I'm calling it now. For GaaS, the end of support means the launch of a new game. And it's already a longer gap between 2 and 3 than 1 and 2.
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,617
You do realise exactly how well NSMBD is selling right and the subsequent hardware sales? As far as sustained system selling software your really not going to get much better than 2D Mario games. The only notable blind spot is due to FE delay.
My post is about the variety and frequency of software. First half has 2 2D Mario games and a spin off of 2D Mario games.
I'm sure they'll all do well enough, but there's large gaps (NSMB->Yoshi=over 2 months; Yoshi->MM2=almost 3)
 

cw_sasuke

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,400
A Splatoon spinoff is more likely than a Splatoon 3 as the next title.

No need for a Splatoon 3 anytime soon.
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,617
I wouldn't be so sure Nintendo is done with Splatoon 2.
I'm not sure there's much more that can be done.
Paid DLC for a 2-3 year old title seems like a bad idea.
Sales are likely dropping with Nintendo Switch Online requirements.

Splatoon 3 in 2020- 3+ years since 2's release. Able to build off the tech they have now, likely after a major revision and a price drop of the hardware, then Splatoon 4 on Switch 2 3-4 years after that

Splatoon 3 not being made between 2020 and 2021 might mean it would be better off being held off for the next system, which means no new entry in like 5 years? That's poor management.
 

Aters

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
7,948
Nintendo hasn't released a major brand new single player first party game since xenoblade 2. Let that sink in.
Get use to it, cuz Nintendo's current game strategy is not too far off from Ubisoft and EA: small amount of big releases, mostly multiplayer, with GaaS model.

A Splatoon spinoff is more likely than a Splatoon 3 as the next title.

No need for a Splatoon 3 anytime soon.
Can you think of a Splatoon spin-off that is cheap enough to justify its existence?
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
My post is about the variety and frequency of software. First half has 2 2D Mario games and a spin off of 2D Mario games.
I'm sure they'll all do well enough, but there's large gaps (NSMB->Yoshi=over 2 months; Yoshi->MM2=almost 3)
That would be a problem if the switch didn't have a consistent stream ofevergreen sellers. It does have that however. I highly doubt small diverse set of games would have any notable impact on the switch's sales. More evergreen titles however have proven time and again to have a tangible impact. There's ton's of indie and smaller games to achieve that diversity nintendo themselves don't need to publish that every month.
 
Last edited:

Saicho

Member
Oct 27, 2017
669
i think switch with sub 50k sales this Wednesday is almost a lock. and, to be honest, i dont believe the console will have any week above 50k until yoshi.

this end of FY is looking very slim.

This is from last week's thread and I'm wondering when this will happen.

I wonder why no one wants the Koei strategy games on Switch?

I think the better question would be why no one wants to play Nobunaga's Ambition.

On a general note, PS4 looks to have a very rough year ahead with both hardware and software.
 

Glio

Member
Oct 27, 2017
24,518
Spain
Do we have any proof that NSO had an effect on the sales of Splatoon 2?

I get the feeling that it's simple market saturation.
 
Jan 10, 2018
7,207
Tokyo
Frankly the graph (which looks great btw) shows us the normal trajectory of a leggy game.

Basically you could translate the 1st part down to have the 2nd one.

Thank you. There are more things to read in my opinion. For example, Splatoon 2 in Japan used to benefit greatly from the holidays, including golden week and Obon. Not surprising as the game is popular with young teenagers. Also, the octo-expansion didn't do shit for the base game, which is an indication that a future paid DLC, in which some people still believe (I don't) probably wouldn't increase the player base. That's why I think that they are going all in for a Splatoon 3 in 2020, as the content updates seem dead and buried since December. Also, and that's still an unpopular opinion I guess, NSO cut the legs of the game literally in half. You can see that the baseline of the game in 2018 (week #38-50 excluding golden week, and #57-62) is quite stable in the 13k-18k ballpark. NSO's introduction (Week #63) leads to a steep drop in the 5-8K, which is now the new baseline as early 2019 seems to show. The game still had a solid end of the year of course and remains popular. To tell the truth, I even thought that Smash Bros would push it down even more in 2019 but it'll probably remain above 5K after all, especially if the demo helps keeping the brand relevant.
Mario Kart is an interesting comparison if we talk about leggy games because while less front loaded, it maintains a higher baseline after passing Splatoon's weekly sales for the first time following NSO. I still believe Mario Kart 9 is also 2020, or 21 at the latest (I put my money on 20).
I'll keep updating this graph if I think about it. I would love to do the same for other titles but finding all the data in one file ain't easy.

Do we have any proof that NSO had an effect on the sales of Splatoon 2?

I get the feeling that it's simple market saturation.

Market saturation is a thing of course, but it doesn't happen as suddenly (the baseline was divided by 2 in less than 3 weeks).

Splatoon 3 in early 2020.

Where were you when mobs of angry pitchfork wielding Nintendo fans chased me last year in April when I was saying that?
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
Do we have any proof that NSO had an effect on the sales of Splatoon 2?

I get the feeling that it's simple market saturation.
I mean look at at that very nice graphs trajectory. Splatoon had been trending towards where we are right now since before NSO. While there could have been a drop as direct result of NSO. I seriously can't see it selling much if any more than what it is currently without NSO existing.
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,617
That would be a problem if the switch didn't have a costs of constent evergreen sellers. it does have that however. i highly doubt small diverse set of games would have any notable impact on the switch's sales. More evergreen titles however have proven time and again to have a tangible impact. There's ton's of indie and smaller games to achieve that diversity nintendo themselves don't need to publish that every month.
It's an issue since they're still planning to release a lot of software, but it'll all be squeezed together in the second half.
Fire Emblem, ASTRAL CHAIN, Link's Awakening, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Luigi's Mansion, DxM, DQXIS, and Marvel Ultimate Alliance within 6 months.
Vs
NSMBU, Yoshi, Mario Maker in the first 6 months
 

unfashionable

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,072
perhaps the recent nintendo direct influenced strong switch sales, mario maker 2 has been the top or second best seller in USA amazon. Right now its behind smash.

there seems to be a lot of excitement around mario marker 2 in the short term and links awakening long term (in addition to the known entities of course like pokemon and animal crossing_
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
I'm not sure there's much more that can be done.
Paid DLC for a 2-3 year old title seems like a bad idea.
Sales are likely dropping with Nintendo Switch Online requirements.
Splatoon 2 shipped 800k last quarter. Numbers are high enough to justify DLC. They announced additional content for Captain Toad and that's an irrelevant release in front of Splatoon and Mario Kart.
 

Aters

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
7,948
I mean that with so many sales, it seems that almost everyone who cares about Splatoon has Splatoon. I think NSO has had a minimal effect.
The beauty of ever green title is that people who just get the console will look into these old games. Of course all Splatoon fans already got Splatoon 2, but Splatoon can't be an ever green by only selling to Splatoon fans.
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
It's an issue since they're still planning to release a lot of software, but it'll all be squeezed together in the second half.
Fire Emblem, ASTRAL CHAIN, Link's Awakening, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Luigi's Mansion, DxM, DQXIS, and Marvel Ultimate Alliance within 6 months.
Vs
NSMBU, Yoshi, Mario Maker in the first 6 months
Nintendo also historically sells more in the winter holiday period and does reasonably in Summer where all those titles will still be fresh in consumers minds. The most glaring shift is Fire Emblem otherwise it's fine to have a period where 3rd Parties aren't completely swamped by Nintendo releases. Most likely stuff like MK11 will benefit from this.
 

Lyrick

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,818
That NSO affected Splatoon 2 to some degree. Seems pretty easy to understand.

(I'm just translating, not giving my own personal opinion)

I'm not sure one can really make that correlation with a high level of accuracy. The NSO label could just as easily be switched with a COD released on the next data point (the one with the larger drop) and we could all be making a conjecture about how Splatoon 2 sales are inversely affected by Call of Duty sales results within the Top 10.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
It's the Splatoon 2 sales since release. Seems pretty self explanatory. For reading convenience, I highlighted a few of the notable events which affected its sales. The bundle and golden week 2018 are not shown though they also led to a significant bump in sales.

That NSO affected Splatoon 2 to some degree. Seems pretty easy to understand.

(I'm just translating, not giving my own personal opinion)

Correlation=/=causation

Splatoon is approaching 3m sales retail (and has achieved that considering digital sales)---sales were always going to drop sooner or later.

Can you think of a Splatoon spin-off that is cheap enough to justify its existence?

What does that actually mean?

Splatoon is a 3m franchise. A good quality spin-off might achieve, say, 500k units in Japan alone.

Do you think a 500k seller spin-off wouldn't be profitable? Think about an action-adventure or an action-RPG. I think that would be pretty likely.

Thank you. There are more things to read in my opinion. For example, Splatoon 2 in Japan used to benefit greatly from the holidays, including golden week and Obon. Not surprising as the game is popular with young teenagers. Also, the octo-expansion didn't do shit for the base game, which is an indication that a future paid DLC, in which some people still believe (I don't) probably wouldn't increase the player base. That's why I think that they are going all in for a Splatoon 3 in 2020, as the content updates seem dead and buried since December. Also, and that's still an unpopular opinion I guess, NSO cut the legs of the game literally in half. You can see that the baseline of the game in 2018 (week #38-50 excluding golden week, and #57-62) is quite stable in the 13k-18k ballpark. NSO's introduction (Week #63) leads to a steep drop in the 5-8K, which is now the new baseline as early 2019 seems to show. The game still had a solid end of the year of course and remains popular. To tell the truth, I even thought that Smash Bros would push it down even more in 2019 but it'll probably remain above 5K after all, especially if the demo helps keeping the brand relevant.
Mario Kart is an interesting comparison if we talk about leggy games because while less front loaded, it maintains a higher baseline after passing Splatoon's weekly sales for the first time following NSO. I still believe Mario Kart 9 is also 2020, or 21 at the latest (I put my money on 20).
I'll keep updating this graph if I think about it. I would love to do the same for other titles but finding all the data in one file ain't easy.

Again, correlation=/=causation. Other factors to take into account:
  • NSO happened during a dead period where all software sales declined.
  • Splatoon 2 had already sold 2.7m+ units by then and sales were already plateauing.
  • Without Octo Expansion and summer holidays the game would have likely dropped before that.
  • Bundles led to an increase in sales before NSO dropped.
New DLC and a GOTY edition might do the work in the future.

Also, Nintendo doesn't automatically develop sequels were sales are decreasing. Just see basically every other evergreen.
 
Jan 10, 2018
7,207
Tokyo
I'm not sure one can really make that correlation with a high level of accuracy. The NSO label could just as easily be switched with a COD released on the next data point (the one with the larger drop) and we could all be making a conjecture about how Splatoon 2 sales are inversely affected by Call of Duty sales results within the Top 10.

The correlation between the release of a paid online service, which to this day has been adopted by roughly 1/4 of the Switch owners, and a steep decrease in the otherwise remarkably stable online focused game, seems in my opinion far more straightforward than your example.
 

Glio

Member
Oct 27, 2017
24,518
Spain
Get use to it, cuz Nintendo's current game strategy is not too far off from Ubisoft and EA: small amount of big releases, mostly multiplayer, with GaaS model.


Can you think of a Splatoon spin-off that is cheap enough to justify its existence?
Splatoon: Wave Racer.

In fact it is the only way to make relevant Wave Racer.
 
Jan 10, 2018
7,207
Tokyo
They have already extended the end of additional content once, it's not so weird.
There's new president with new priorities and has announced focus at DLC.

They announced that they would continue supporting the game much in advance, and didn't reach the point of actually stopping the updates, like they did for real in December; that's really not the same thing.
Personally I haven't touched the game in almost 2 months and I used to play A LOT of that shit (rank X in literally every mode).