What is expected in terms of numbers? Less than 100k combined LTD?
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Media Create Sales: Week 7, 2019 (Feb 11 - Feb 17)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
How much do you think it will sell?
About AA7, are there any news about that? Maybe a holiday 2019 title?
OP
OP
100k didn't sell neither the 3DS release.
2014 CY {2013.12.30 - 2014.12.28} 128. [3DS] Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy <Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney \ Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - Justice For All \ Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - Trials and Tribulations> # <ADV> (Capcom) {2014.04.17} (¥3.990) - 62.648 / 62.648
2015 CY {2014.12.29 - 2016.01.03} 520. [3DS] Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy <Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney \ Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - Justice For All \ Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - Trials and Tribulations> # <ADV> (Capcom) {2014.04.17} (¥3.990) - 6.590 / 69.238
2015 CY {2014.12.29 - 2016.01.03} 330. [3DS] Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy <Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney \ Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - Justice For All \ Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - Trials and Tribulations> [Best Price!] <ADV> (Capcom) {2015.04.02} (¥2.990) - 15.431 / 15.431
2016 CY {2016.01.04 - 2017.01.01} 243. [3DS] Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy <Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney \ Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - Justice For All \ Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - Trials and Tribulations> [Best Price!] <ADV> (Capcom) {2015.04.02} (¥2.990) - 20.397 / 35.828
2017 CY {2017.01.02 - 2017.12.31} 598. [3DS] Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy <Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney \ Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - Justice For All \ Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - Trials and Tribulations> [Best Price!] <ADV> (Capcom) {2015.04.02} (¥2.990) - 3.300 / 39.128
Even the 3DS release didn't do half of that, this even later port won't get close to those numbers.
We probably aren't going to get an announcement for AA7 until they release the DS/3DS games in a collection, so my guess is 2020/2021.
I would expect this release to sell notably less than the 3DS games.
It'd be interesting to have a signal from digital sales. I suspect many people went digital.
That would seem pretty late to me, but thinking about it, its fully possible. I was just thinking about when Capcom said back in late 2017 that they have plans on releasing a new Ace Attorney game for the Switch. But seeing that the trilogy is just releasing now, 2020 for AA7 seems possible.
Thats fair. I dont really know what to expect of the trilogy in terms of sales.
I just see a General slow downward trend and bumps at holidays
OP
OP
Capcom is ready to take the spotlight from Pokemon. RE0 will save Golden Week.
Sorry, i missed these replies earlier (i didnt scroll high enough up on the page). Thanks for the numbers. I competely forgot that there was a trilogy for the 3DS :) Seeing what the 3DS sold, i guess the PS4 and Switch version wont do much better, at least not regarding the retail version.
Actually, I never say Chris' edited post. Seems like it was actually close to the number you wrote. Either GDL's numbers as faulty or it can't properly use that site.
Anyway, still can't see this version reaching those numbers. This is the 7th release of those games.
OP
OP
There's nothing wrong with GDL numbers except we get top 1000 only from Media Create every year and top 100 from Famitsu.
Except for Famitsu's digital estimates :happycorn:
Let's not derail the thread lol
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For Ace Attorney I expect very low numbers. Sub 20k territory for both, maybe even <10k. We've had this collection before, and I don't think the core PS4 audience cares that much about Ace Attorney to let it sell big numbers.
This makes me happy. Even if a Pokemon announcement doesn't happen soon, this confirms we'll get a little something at least. Can't wait to play RE4 on my Switch.
I think it is pretty obvious Splatoon 2 has just about tapped out its audience in Japan. No game/series has unlimited appeal and Splatoon might have found its limit. The game will keep selling of course, but as I said when some were claiming it would hit 5+ million sales (or Top 10 sales of all time), it was going to be a very long road to that point if at all.
4-6 are more popular with way more sales potential. It also makes more sense to do those games if you are planning on bringing AA7 to those platforms.
Ace Attorney Trilogy will sell nothing and probably annoyed fans that wanted a new entry. Pretty irrelevant release. AA7, whenever it comes (I'm guessing very late), likely will keep the series decline.
tbh I'm always expecting this IP to get the axe considering Capcom's position as a developer that only cares about the west.
tbh I'm always expecting this IP to get the axe considering Capcom's position as a developer that only cares about the west.
Some people are trying to undermine a 3m+ seller. It might even hit 4m+ by the end of it its run, yet we get to see complaints. Splatoon 2 is a massive success and no bickering is going to change that.
I still remember that Capcom raised Ace Attorney as "Don't worry, investors, we're making Switch games" back in *2017*. All that's coming is a multiplat trilogy port.
I just looked back at 3DS 2013 sales with about ~1M HW give and take per quarter excluding holidays. It sold 4.8M HW that year.
I think that switch can match and likely exceed that with smm2, animal crossing, pokemon gen 8, Lm3, yokai watch 4, dragon quest(can this move hw?), and LoZ links awakening. I may be missing some hw moving games.
3ds had monster hunter 4, pokemon X and Y, luigis mansion dark moon, tomodachi life and yokai watch(idk if i remember correctly but this title slowly blew up), LoZ a link between worlds...
Looking back, I am realizing how similar this year will be with 2013 3ds. Switch obviously doesn't have a monster hunter title or tomodachi, but 3ds didn't have smm2, animal crossing(released in nov 2012 but i guess u could say it had a great impact q1 of 2013).
I am sooo curious how much smm2 will affect hardware and I feel that it will have a similar effect to monster hunter 4 but spread overtime.
Now, about that price drop and hardware revision.....it could be explosive.
I think that switch can match and likely exceed that with smm2, animal crossing, pokemon gen 8, Lm3, yokai watch 4, dragon quest(can this move hw?), and LoZ links awakening. I may be missing some hw moving games.
3ds had monster hunter 4, pokemon X and Y, luigis mansion dark moon, tomodachi life and yokai watch(idk if i remember correctly but this title slowly blew up), LoZ a link between worlds...
Looking back, I am realizing how similar this year will be with 2013 3ds. Switch obviously doesn't have a monster hunter title or tomodachi, but 3ds didn't have smm2, animal crossing(released in nov 2012 but i guess u could say it had a great impact q1 of 2013).
I am sooo curious how much smm2 will affect hardware and I feel that it will have a similar effect to monster hunter 4 but spread overtime.
Now, about that price drop and hardware revision.....it could be explosive.
I know less about RE2 in terms of what it changed for me to compare. If you call a remake a brand new game then works have lost all meaning.
Without some actual quantitative analysis it's like looking for shapes in the clouds. Looks to fall within general shallow slope
It's a brand new game made from scratch. When you say something isn't new you're implying it's a port.
Words lose meaning when you imply something new isn't because it's based on a prior work.
Given that more than 2 brand new single player games are already announced for this year, I hope 2018 is an anomaly.
Cheap enough??? A splatoon spin-off could sell better than many mario spin-offs.
I dont consider remakes brand new. Sorry. Not in the way I was using the word. It wasn't made from scratch either. Entire aspects such as the gameworld and story and characters are derived from the source. It's a remake and they have their place like ports and remasters. But if that's the best game that fits the criteria I outlined then it's still a sad state of affairs.
Well technically Torna was released as a separate SKU, unlike Octo Expansion.
Yup. Ragnarok Online did explode in its popularity in SEA like in 20 years ago and now all those old fans would have been really matured especially financial talking so it is not surprising that many of them is able to become a gigantic whale lol.
More competition of evergreen, more laser focused IP target like Splatoon which target teenager vs Mario Kart which target literally everyone, bundle gone.
There is also many other possibilities other than NSO alone causing Splatoon 2 to drop its number. I don't know whats with the obsession of blaming everything on NSO alone there.
So, what does everyone think the Switch could reach in terms of HW sales this year?
Media-Create:
2017 - 3.312.619
2018 - 3.534.165
2019 - ???
It is ahead of 2018 by about 200k and that lead should grow for a few weeks barring some crazy out of nowhere drop. I think it will be +400k through June and up almost 1000k by the end of the year to put it around 4.5M. This is without an actual revision this year.
Media-Create:
2017 - 3.312.619
2018 - 3.534.165
2019 - ???
It is ahead of 2018 by about 200k and that lead should grow for a few weeks barring some crazy out of nowhere drop. I think it will be +400k through June and up almost 1000k by the end of the year to put it around 4.5M. This is without an actual revision this year.
This tell us that Japan need that Vita 2 asap lol.^_^
I actually... really don't know lol. Hating NSO.....why? Nintendo surely won't turn back NSO policy as we see they had actually double down in supporting NSO with Tetris 99 there.
Yeah this is what makes me confused actually. Like, if Splatoon 2 sold 1m then sure there is still tons of market to sell its game there. But Splat 2 right now is already 3m+ with digital added. It is crazy to think that the leg won't shrink at all. At this point, second hand market is already going to effect the health of the leg there.
4mi maybe?
4.5 if no game is delayed.
With things like yoshi crafted world, mario maker 2, astral chain, pokemon, dragon quest, luigis mansion, animal crossing, links awakening and fillers like all those final fantasies, hell blade, yokai watch etc.... things will be insane starting June.
OP
OP
Famitsu Sales: Week 7, 2019 (Feb 11 - Feb 17)
01./00. [PS4] Jump Force <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.02.14} (¥8.200) - 78.990 / NEW <60-80%>
02./00. [PS4] Catherine: Full Body # <ADV> (Atlus) {2019.02.14} (¥7.980) - 53.606 / NEW <60-80%>
03./01. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe <New Super Mario Bros. U \ New Super Luigi U> <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.01.11} (¥5.980) - 30.391 / 445.660 <80-100%> (-10%)
04./00. [PS4] Far Cry: New Dawn <ACT> (Ubisoft) {2019.02.15} (¥5.400) - 29.675 / NEW <40-60%>
05./03. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 28.156 / 2.864.658 <80-100%> (-2%)
06./00. [PS4] Metro: Exodus <ACT> (Spike Chunsoft) {2019.02.15} (¥7.800) - 18.731 / NEW <40-60%>
07./02. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts III # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.01.25} (¥8.800) - 17.075 / 768.843 <80-100%> (-42%)
08./05. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2018.11.16} (¥5.980) - 13.689 / 1.414.372 <80-100%> (-19%)
09./04. [PS4] Resident Evil 2 # <ADV> (Capcom) {2019.01.25} (¥7.800) - 13.204 / 361.756 <80-100%> (-46%)
10./00. [PS4] Nobunaga's Ambition: Taishi with Power-Up Kit # <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) {2019.02.14} (¥9.800) - 12.094 / NEW <60-80%>
11./06. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 11.244 / 2.176.322 <80-100%> (-10%)
12./08. [NSW] Minecraft # <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} (¥3.600) - 10.724 / 641.831 <80-100%> (+13%)
13./07. [NSW] Super Mario Party # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} (¥5.980) - 9.393 / 943.062 <80-100%> (-11%)
14./00. [PSV] Catherine: Full Body # <ADV> (Atlus) {2019.02.14} (¥7.980) - 7.980 / NEW <60-80%>
15./09. [NSW] Splatoon 2 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} (¥5.980) - 7.089 / 2.975.045 <80-100%> (+1%)
16./10. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 6.464 / 1.238.695 <80-100%> (+11%)
17./00. [PSV] La Corda d'Oro: Octave # <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) {2019.02.14} (¥7.800) - 4.289 / NEW <60-80%>
18./12. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts \ Kingdom Hearts Re:Chain of Memories> \ Kingdom Hearts HD II.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts II \ Kingdom Hearts II: Final Mix+ \ Kingdom Hearts: Birth by Sleep>> <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.03.09} (¥6.800) - 4.119 / 270.871 <80-100%> (-29%)
19./00. [NSW] Nobunaga's Ambition: Taishi with Power-Up Kit # <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) {2019.02.14} (¥9.800) - 3.951 / NEW <40-60%>
20./13. [NSW] Dragon Quest Builders 2 <ADV> (Square Enix) {2018.12.20} (¥7.800) - 3.886 / 247.182 <80-100%> (-9%)
21./11. [PS4] Ace Combat 7: Skies Unknown # <STG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.01.17} (¥7.600) - 3.860 / 204.391 <80-100%> (-34%)
22./16. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} (¥5.980) - 3.252 / 1.937.932 <80-100%> (+23%)
23./20. [NSW] Kirby Star Allies <ACT> (Nintendo) {2018.03.16} (¥5.980) - 2.554 / 693.147 <80-100%> (+9%)
24./18. [PS4] Dragon Quest Builders 2 <ADV> (Square Enix) {2018.12.20} (¥7.800) - 2.384 / 218.804 <80-100%> (+0%)
25./17. [NSW] Fitness Boxing <HOB> (Imagineer) {2018.12.20} (¥5.800) - 2.362 / 23.302 <60-80%> (-11%)
26./23. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.07.19} (¥6.100) - 2.323 / 304.224 <80-100%> (+8%)
27./26. [NSW] Tales of Vesperia: Definitive Edition # <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.01.11} (¥5.700) - 1.966 / 34.461 <80-100%> (+5%)
28./24. [NSW] Go Vacation <ETC> (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.12.27} (¥4.980) - 1.960 / 59.180 <60-80%> (-2%)
29./28. [NSW] Mario Tennis Aces <SPT> (Nintendo) {2018.06.22} (¥5.980) - 1.935 / 398.371 <80-100%> (+12%)
30./00. [NSW] La Corda d'Oro: Octave # <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) {2019.02.14} (¥7.800) - 1.892 / NEW <40-60%>
Top 30
NSW - 18
PS4 - 10
PSV - 2
01./00. [PS4] Jump Force <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.02.14} (¥8.200) - 78.990 / NEW <60-80%>
02./00. [PS4] Catherine: Full Body # <ADV> (Atlus) {2019.02.14} (¥7.980) - 53.606 / NEW <60-80%>
03./01. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe <New Super Mario Bros. U \ New Super Luigi U> <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.01.11} (¥5.980) - 30.391 / 445.660 <80-100%> (-10%)
04./00. [PS4] Far Cry: New Dawn <ACT> (Ubisoft) {2019.02.15} (¥5.400) - 29.675 / NEW <40-60%>
05./03. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 28.156 / 2.864.658 <80-100%> (-2%)
06./00. [PS4] Metro: Exodus <ACT> (Spike Chunsoft) {2019.02.15} (¥7.800) - 18.731 / NEW <40-60%>
07./02. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts III # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.01.25} (¥8.800) - 17.075 / 768.843 <80-100%> (-42%)
08./05. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2018.11.16} (¥5.980) - 13.689 / 1.414.372 <80-100%> (-19%)
09./04. [PS4] Resident Evil 2 # <ADV> (Capcom) {2019.01.25} (¥7.800) - 13.204 / 361.756 <80-100%> (-46%)
10./00. [PS4] Nobunaga's Ambition: Taishi with Power-Up Kit # <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) {2019.02.14} (¥9.800) - 12.094 / NEW <60-80%>
11./06. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 11.244 / 2.176.322 <80-100%> (-10%)
12./08. [NSW] Minecraft # <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} (¥3.600) - 10.724 / 641.831 <80-100%> (+13%)
13./07. [NSW] Super Mario Party # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} (¥5.980) - 9.393 / 943.062 <80-100%> (-11%)
14./00. [PSV] Catherine: Full Body # <ADV> (Atlus) {2019.02.14} (¥7.980) - 7.980 / NEW <60-80%>
15./09. [NSW] Splatoon 2 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} (¥5.980) - 7.089 / 2.975.045 <80-100%> (+1%)
16./10. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 6.464 / 1.238.695 <80-100%> (+11%)
17./00. [PSV] La Corda d'Oro: Octave # <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) {2019.02.14} (¥7.800) - 4.289 / NEW <60-80%>
18./12. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts \ Kingdom Hearts Re:Chain of Memories> \ Kingdom Hearts HD II.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts II \ Kingdom Hearts II: Final Mix+ \ Kingdom Hearts: Birth by Sleep>> <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.03.09} (¥6.800) - 4.119 / 270.871 <80-100%> (-29%)
19./00. [NSW] Nobunaga's Ambition: Taishi with Power-Up Kit # <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) {2019.02.14} (¥9.800) - 3.951 / NEW <40-60%>
20./13. [NSW] Dragon Quest Builders 2 <ADV> (Square Enix) {2018.12.20} (¥7.800) - 3.886 / 247.182 <80-100%> (-9%)
21./11. [PS4] Ace Combat 7: Skies Unknown # <STG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.01.17} (¥7.600) - 3.860 / 204.391 <80-100%> (-34%)
22./16. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} (¥5.980) - 3.252 / 1.937.932 <80-100%> (+23%)
23./20. [NSW] Kirby Star Allies <ACT> (Nintendo) {2018.03.16} (¥5.980) - 2.554 / 693.147 <80-100%> (+9%)
24./18. [PS4] Dragon Quest Builders 2 <ADV> (Square Enix) {2018.12.20} (¥7.800) - 2.384 / 218.804 <80-100%> (+0%)
25./17. [NSW] Fitness Boxing <HOB> (Imagineer) {2018.12.20} (¥5.800) - 2.362 / 23.302 <60-80%> (-11%)
26./23. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.07.19} (¥6.100) - 2.323 / 304.224 <80-100%> (+8%)
27./26. [NSW] Tales of Vesperia: Definitive Edition # <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.01.11} (¥5.700) - 1.966 / 34.461 <80-100%> (+5%)
28./24. [NSW] Go Vacation <ETC> (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.12.27} (¥4.980) - 1.960 / 59.180 <60-80%> (-2%)
29./28. [NSW] Mario Tennis Aces <SPT> (Nintendo) {2018.06.22} (¥5.980) - 1.935 / 398.371 <80-100%> (+12%)
30./00. [NSW] La Corda d'Oro: Octave # <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) {2019.02.14} (¥7.800) - 1.892 / NEW <40-60%>
Top 30
NSW - 18
PS4 - 10
PSV - 2
Considering how popular the Switch is with women I would have thought otome games would do well on it, but I guess not yet, less than half of the Vita release. And with Catherine at 60-80% for both PS4 and Vita it's safe to say it's not a complete bomb as some in this thread were hoping.
OP
OP
It's also a pointless battle at retail since the full picture is that both have crossed 3m since some time ago, many months for Splatoon 2.
The difference between female gamer and female otome gamer is about as big as gamer and VN gamer. Most female gamers don't play otome games.
Well, obviously, they're totally niche games. Do otome gamers play non-otome games though?
Or do you feel that there is something about the Switch that would repel otome gamers or is that line just going to dissolve once Vita carts are no longer being made?
I'm saying that a larger female user base does not necessarily translate to a bigger otome user base. That is a small, dedicated group that migrates very slowly. I mean look at VN as a whole. Japan in general has moved away from PC gaming since PC Engine, yet most VN gamers still stick to their adult VNs on PC.
Really strange behavior indeed, is it related to Japanese honor and shame culture ? Honest question, I'm not an expert