Michael Moore: ‘Don’t believe the polls, Trump vote is always undercounted’
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1) It's not just Era, it's every place.
2) Trolls. Trolls everywhere. There are so many everywhere.
No, he's just stupid. Well-meaning but dumb as fuck.
Jesus Christ, look at this moron. Nobody stans for him except trolls. We had data. We knew 2018 was a blue wave. We knew it in advance.
Michael Moore slams Nancy Pelosi for "predicting" Democrats will win midterm elections
"Just do your job as a citizen."
www.newsweek.com
Moore is just doubling down on so much he has been saying despite having already been proven a shitty prognosticator:
Trump supported Michael Moore prediction that the president's 'voracious' supporters would defeat a centrist Democrat in 2020
Trump later tweeted to tout Moore's prediction, which urged Democrats to avoid putting a "centrist, moderate" up against the president.
www.businessinsider.com
He owns it. He can't walk away now.
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From Bloomberg article yesterday,
In Arizona, two-thirds of Latino registered voters have not yet cast a ballot. In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows.
www.bloomberg.com
In Arizona, two-thirds of Latino registered voters have not yet cast a ballot. In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows.
Biden Aides See Warning Signs in Black, Latino Turnout So Far
Senior officials on Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign are increasingly worried about insufficient Black and Latino voter turnout in key states like Florida and Pennsylvania with only four days until the election, according to people familiar with the matter.
www.bloomberg.com
JFC what a moron, suckered by a popular, blatant troll/comedy/parody account.
Also, Moore's entire premise here is fallacious. Even 99% of Trump voters don't give a fuck about rallies. Hell, a lot of the people at the rallies are literally the same damned people, following him around like Phish and Dead fans.
Shame on the MSNBC hosts who still give a 'White Working Class' advocate like Moore a platform.
Let's be honest. Trump and Moore have certain things in common. Moore likely jealous of Trump.
Also, Moore's entire premise here is fallacious. Even 99% of Trump voters don't give a fuck about rallies. Hell, a lot of the people at the rallies are literally the same damned people, following him around like Phish and Dead fans.
Shame on the MSNBC hosts who still give a 'White Working Class' advocate like Moore a platform.
Let's be honest. Trump and Moore have certain things in common. Moore likely jealous of Trump.
I’d rather he keep his prognosticating to himself and just encourage people to vote. Hell, everyone in general could do with shutting the heck up for a few more days other than simply encouraging others to vote.
That’s a big problem on this board that gets on my last nerves. For as clever as folks here think they are, almost every damn discussion is framed/approached in a hate it or love it way as if people can’t comprehend anything in-between. Critique Michael Moore talking nonsense and that makes you hateful? There are degrees between hating something and loving it, folks. Wisen up.
I mean it's been basically completely true that the polls thread has been like.
Bunch of polls showing Biden is up: "Don't believe the polls get out and vote. I'm assuming the worst"
One slightly favorable Trump poll: "Yep this is 2016 again, Trump is going to win"
I realize people still worry about 2016 happening again but at a certain point it's anti statistical data thinking.
LOL.JFC what a moron, suckered by a popular, blatant troll/comedy/parody account.
Also, Moore's entire premise here is fallacious. Even 99% of Trump voters don't give a fuck about rallies. Hell, a lot of the people at the rallies are literally the same damned people, following him around like Phish and Dead fans.
Shame on the MSNBC hosts who still give a 'White Working Class' advocate like Moore a platform.
Let's be honest. Trump and Moore have certain things in common. Moore likely jealous of Trump.
That's a clear parody account too lol.
Moore said this same thing, more or less, about Romney in 2012 and then we all know about 2018 as has been pointed out numerous times. I wouldn't put any stock in what he says as any kind of educated take. When you think about it, what he's saying doesn't even make that much sense. So, Trump voters don't trust the deep state so they lie. Well, okay, maybe, but then why is it that the same polls are allegedly tightening in the states he mentions? Did like half of Trump supporters start trusting the deep state to pollsters all of a sudden. By his logic, Biden's lead wouldn't change at all lol
EDIT: And he could be right in the end about Trump winning. I think Trump will probably win, but just Moore doesn't really know anything about it in the end.
EDIT: And he could be right in the end about Trump winning. I think Trump will probably win, but just Moore doesn't really know anything about it in the end.
No doubt. That applies to way more than just polling though.
Reality is not black and white.
^ Even an innocuous and obviously true statement like that would probably get some very strong reactions here, because it bears surface associations to legitimately harmful "both sides" fallacies.
Imagine being *that* stupid and yet having people take you seriously.
Yup, people shitting on him now are the exact examples of liberals destroying their own allies.
Oh the purity tests.
If Michael Moore is a bad guy on your political spectrum then you have lost the plot.
These are the knee-jerk easily offended carcitures that the alt-right goes on about. Some of you are literally proving them right.
Step back and get some perspective.
As for the topic on hand, whether scientific or not, please listen to the underlying message which is to not get complacent, go out and VOTE
He's not a bad guy, he's just a White Working Class cough cough advocate that is also not smart.
So a person with bad priorities, grounded in latent racism, who makes bad takes.
He has a life long history of taking action, putting his money where his mouth is, fighting through conservative and corporate propaganda, and being a friend of the common man, the underprivileged voice, and the forgotten.
If one wants to distill that to "hes racist and only cares about white working class", then they are reason the alt-right have become so prominent.
As an outsider looking in to American politics and hoping for the nightmare to be over, the hills some of you die on are... Ughhhhh
If one wants to distill that to "hes racist and only cares about white working class", then they are reason the alt-right have become so prominent.
As an outsider looking in to American politics and hoping for the nightmare to be over, the hills some of you die on are... Ughhhhh
Michael Moore's entire career has been to be a pessimistic affluent white guy on film for the last 30 years. It gets annoying hearing some guy do a Chicken Little impersonation.
some people will never forgive him for supporting Bernie over Hillary.
They forget all he did for progressives and democrats in the 2000s
Fuck I created the alt-right for not lionizing Michael Moore.
User Banned (Permanent): Troll Account
Unless you are specifically and outright putting race relations as the utmost priority, you can't be a real ally or have 30 years of work be admired or noted?
Those of you that keep bringing up his "whiteness" or his focus on "working whites" sound like the racists right now.
Good luck in your elections. I truly hope you all swayed enough people with your rhetoric this time around.
Those of you that keep bringing up his "whiteness" or his focus on "working whites" sound like the racists right now.
Good luck in your elections. I truly hope you all swayed enough people with your rhetoric this time around.
Michael moore cares about lead in the water in Flint, Michigan, but only cuz working white people might drink lead
This is beyond poorly thought out you shouldn’t be here trying to pin responsibility on the alt right on anyone here. Especially, when as you describe it, you’re an outsider looking in. It easy to hold such opinions I’m sure when you’ve got no skin in the game.
Edit: just saw your last post and how you’ve dropped your facade so I won’t be engaging further.
The real idiots are those who talk about race only to denigrate a person in a topic that has nothing to do with race, nor his decades of work that has helped people of all ages, races and backgrounds.
As for "dropping facade", I'm a liberal visible minority Canadian that is likely a heck of alot more "liberal" than the vast majority of Americans.
This forum is overwhelmingly Americana and democrat leaning, and so there is a lot of overlap in political opinion, approach, and general worldview.
The "stake in the game" is that American media and alt-right prominence has a huge and lasting impact on the whole world but especially in Canada as a direct neighbour and the most similar make up of culture and demographics.
The recognition, or rather lack of recognition of allies and their message is a big concern amongst modern-day democrats.
As for "dropping facade", I'm a liberal visible minority Canadian that is likely a heck of alot more "liberal" than the vast majority of Americans.
This forum is overwhelmingly Americana and democrat leaning, and so there is a lot of overlap in political opinion, approach, and general worldview.
The "stake in the game" is that American media and alt-right prominence has a huge and lasting impact on the whole world but especially in Canada as a direct neighbour and the most similar make up of culture and demographics.
The recognition, or rather lack of recognition of allies and their message is a big concern amongst modern-day democrats.
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Month old account with only 20 posts complaining about minorities being critical of a tone deaf white guy?
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As a black man hearing some rich old white guy complain about what other rich white guys are doing is eye roll inducing. Especially when that's all he's done for 30 years. His work largely does nothing except give people movies to point at and claim represent working class people when they wouldn't be caught dead talking to an actual working class person and his activism is ineffective at best.
Hey, don’t you know that poster is probably more liberal than all of us put together! Probably has more progressive ideals in their pinky toe than my entire body. Now we need to shut our black asses up and go watch some bowling for Columbine.
I mean you can be critical of Moore but how the fuck do you arrive to those conclusions?
Yeah, I am all for being vigilant and not being lulled by graphs and probabilities.
But at the same time, this level of pessimism must be actively rejected.
This isn't simply: 'Please vote, they out there suppressing and being sneaky motherfuckers.' this is some self-defeating hyper-pessimist shit.
But at the same time, this level of pessimism must be actively rejected.
This isn't simply: 'Please vote, they out there suppressing and being sneaky motherfuckers.' this is some self-defeating hyper-pessimist shit.
He was just on the Bad Faith podcast talking about this. He said his position is to always plan for the worst outcome to encourage a larger turnout. He also looks towards the communities in Michigan, and how they react to the election, as a litmus test for how he thinks the nation might feel. He specifically mentioned how Flint still feels abandoned by the Democrats and that many are too discouraged to vote.
Moore says that he thinks that Biden is still leading (but at +4 instead of +8) and that it's within fuckery range so everyone has to show up and do what they can.
It's not meant to be self defeating. He's saying people should vote and phonebank. Obviously the headlines are going to pick the juiciest quote and frame it however they want.
Some people psychologically respond better when they think the race is close such that their vote matters.
I feel like most people have a construct of Michael Moore that's probably not reflective of reality.
Unfortunately that's the state of the country (and many others). Reason we're in this mess.
On topic, he's absolutely right in that we shouldn't trust the polls in any way shape or form. Do not get complacent, do not stop pushing.
not seeing the issue here either, especially with republicans actively trying to discount millions of votes and other election fuckery. the normal way of reading into elections i think is a trap.
i wouldnt read too much into polls for this one either.
all humans are "feelings based".
not really sure what you're gettin at here.
Yikes on Moore with this take, but I ain't gonna go as far to call Moore a racist or some other shit. As usual, he's another White dude that has a limited understanding of how minorities and other communities work or vote. That isn't exclusive to him, or even necessarily a race issue. Returning to topic, I will never sit and rest on my laurels with any recent election. I won't believe Democrats and Biden are gonna be in a position of power until I see Joe sitting in the Oval Office.
I needed a morbid laugh today. Thank you for this insightfully frustrating post. You're absolutely correct.
I wont speak for u/Armaros, but I will say that I acknowledge the emotional nature of humanity, but I believe we should temper our emotions with evidence. This is the same shit that happened in 2016 on this very board. Folks get all sorts of fucked up when someone points to the silent, racists imbeciles who are responsible for Trump to be so widely accepted. I'm sorry, they exist and they vote. Let's get a political party who represents a truly progressive stance and we won't have to disgruntily vote for Biden (a firm capitalist authoritarian) to avoid our further decay into fascism.
*I am aware of the Romney prediction, but Resetera wasn't a thing yet, so let's leave that out of our forum's zeitgeist. We can dig deeply into NeoGaf on some other thread.
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I think the irritation comes more from it being such a captain obvious beating a dead horse point, thats it's just kind of annoying.
At least Moore is beating a dead horse to the public. People beat the dead vote horse here when everyone on this forum obviously already god damn voted or will.
I expected this take from Michael Moore. It's kind of his schtick.
A super realistic assessment about the current state of early voting and the polling data we have does not get people to vote. I think his point is to get people to vote.
Much like when fundraising emails cite statistical outliers or less credible polls to generate a feeling to get people to vote.
Whether or not Trump voters are lying to pollsters is not particularly relevant to anyone but the pollsters and the campaigns. We need to be voting and getting others to vote with maximum enthusiasm.
A super realistic assessment about the current state of early voting and the polling data we have does not get people to vote. I think his point is to get people to vote.
Much like when fundraising emails cite statistical outliers or less credible polls to generate a feeling to get people to vote.
Whether or not Trump voters are lying to pollsters is not particularly relevant to anyone but the pollsters and the campaigns. We need to be voting and getting others to vote with maximum enthusiasm.
I would rather have whatever Moore is saying than receive these types of emails.
I'm no fan of Michael Moore but he did say "Trump will win" in 2016.
I love your optimism and I want to share it but the fear kind of breaks down into four categories:
1. Trump rushing his Supreme Court pick through in time for the election.
2. Trump and his cronies openly tampering with the election.
3. Swing states and the electoral college pulling the win for Trump despite poll numbers.
4. The astounding success of alt-right propaganda. Observing internet culture flooding social media with praise for Trump, the increasing popularity of QAnon, OAN, Alt-right podcasters and YouTubers.
I think these four things, which I've seen frequently brought up outside of ERA, are leading people to have 2016 flashbacks and preparing for the absolute worst case scenario.
I'm trying to prepare myself as well. I want to believe we have a chance.
If only more troll account fucks were this blatant and banned, Etc. would be so much more tolerable.
saying polls are always wrong (and ignoring how badly he was wrong in 2018 and how even the polls underestimated Democrats in 2018)
And doomsaying that Trump has an army of silent voters out there does not help voter enthusiasm.
Suggesting that the actual state of affairs are closer then some polls may suggest isn’t doomsaying. And why can’t it drive enthusiasm? Political campaign donation emails consistently paint “doomsday”scenarios to try to ignite their base to turn out.
but I would argue that doomsday posting would be implying that Biden can’t wait and thus it’s not worth trying or that it’s okay to vote third party.
Being against “feelings” and only appealing to evidence ignores that feelings drive a lot of people to vote. Politics isn’t a totally logical affair.
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