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Michael Pachter says Nintendo Switch is tracking to sell 8 million units this Fiscal Year
- Thread starter Andri
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Relative to Microsoft and Sony, they don't really. Instead of discounts they focus on bundles. They also don't really need to.
What?!? Nintendo doesn't do BF deals? Since when?!?
Oh you sweet summer child....a couple of seconds on the google machine would show this to be an assumption and not true.
If this was true (and it's not) there would be no swings in industry earnings, total hardware would be relatively flat every year and when new hardware launched you would immediately see drops in older hardware to maintain the balance. There is no data out there suggesting that the PS4 or Switch are cannibalizing each others sales. Matt from NPD has said as much several times and when you actually look at software across the board, nothing suggests that the strength of one system corresponds with the drop of another.
What is this logic? Sony beating their forecast doesn't mean that the other players in the industry are losing sales to them. PS4 sales are stronger than most predicted for a 5th year system. We don't know how Sony reached their forecast either. Perhaps they don't plan to be as aggressive wiith deals this holiday. Perhaps the Pro shortage caused them to be more conservative. There are a lot of reasons they may have projected that number besides being "humble". It's fairly obvious they will beat that projection though given how the year has played out.
You'e ignoring the original point. That point was predicting Nintendo sells less this fiscal year than last is none sense. Sony is irrelevant to that.
What does this have to do with Nintendo? The people that buy Nintendo systems wont be swayed away from it because RDR2 is coming out on other systems. These types of games have never been an indicator of how Nintendo systems sell.
I gotta believe that he misread a report that said 18 million (or that report had a typo) and he just went with it rather than bother to look into it because otherwise... yikes.
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Pachter always seems to be out to lunch himself when it comes to Nintendo. Of course they are going to sell more than 8million consoles. 20 million seems tough, but if he thinks they will only sell 8million he shouldn't be a paid analyst.
I know it's pretty important to the toxic side of the gaming community to be high and mighty when someone we disagree with is doing poorly, but I'm pretty sure he's doing just fine.
Good luck with that negativity tho.
These videos aren't his job. He's not even getting paid.
This is his go to method to get people to view the video for SIFTD and comment. And it's obviously working very well because Nintendo fans can't handle one dude's very obvious trolling.
His job is to give great investment advice to his customers, none of which are the people who view his silly SIFTD videos.
High and mighty? He is analysing (if you can call it that) Nintendos performance and we are analysing his performance. Seems fair to me and all that image shows is that he's about as useful an analyst as a coin toss
If people in this thread were being genuine they wouldn't use the term "prediction."
Since many of you are not. Continue on.
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It is his job to give guidance on five different games companies in addition to the other nongaming and he covers at Wedbush.
Essentially he collects data and presents that data to investors in a digestible format.
He also analyzes the investors portfolio and provides financial feedback on the possible returns on investment.
It is due to that second aspect predictions can be made but they aren't presented like that and the goal is to advise on the best possible path of investment.
We have officially resorted to meta posting because someone didn't talk positive about the Switch. Are you fucking kidding me? Pathetic.
I agree with him on pretty much everything besides the 8 million projection
Hi this is Pachter. He has a history with Nintendo analysis that drives fans crazy. He's not the average poster and he's gonna be fine. Think of him as a wealthier Drinky Crow that knows how to push buttons for the lulz.
Nah, it'll likely help sell a few million switches but it won't chanhe anything drastically I think
He also said the Switch would sell like 50-70M lifetime, his opinions will change with what he thinks is going on with the rest of the market
And I would think with Smash/Pokemon due in that period, that Switch repeating or approximating those kinds of numbers for holidays 2019 would be a reasonable guessimate?
You say it like its a good thing. That kind of trolling was allowed in the old place because the forum admins were friends with each other and it targeted specific groups of players only. I don't think it would be allowed here.
This is not pushing button for the "lulz". Predicting 8 mio Switch sales is just dumb. And his other statements like the ones about Iwata after his death are just embarrassing and dumb too.
If his way of getting attention is by trolling Nintendo fans than I don't know what is worse.
Those defending him if he truly does want to troll fans of a company or
that he would troll with insane numbers and predictions as a freaking analyst.
Those defending him if he truly does want to troll fans of a company or
that he would troll with insane numbers and predictions as a freaking analyst.
I o be fair, Pachter didn't say it here. I do agree we should ignore him because...
It's him trolling. I believe that in this very thread, someone identified that he provides analysis for the larger Western developers (WB/Activision/EA/Ubi etc). Notice he NEVER says anything close to controversial on them? That's where his $$$ is and does well. The 8 million statement is dumb but should not be taken as serious. The shit he said about Iwata crossed a line however. As a huge Nintendo fan, that day opened my eyes to take zero stock in what Analyst giveaway for "free information".
Thing is if they have the same numbers as last year they would miss their forecast.
Switch sales have been March 17' - 2.73M
Q1 (2017) - 1.97M / Q2 - 2.92M / Q3 - 7.24M / Q4 - 2.92M = 15.05M
Q1 (2018) - 1.88M/ Q2 - ???
If all the other quarters roughly the same they need Q3 to increase their hardware units by another 5M to meet their expectations.
I don't think they're hitting 20m either, mostly it's an issue of the numbers Pachter is projecting for the year, *most* of that number will likely be met just in Q3, so as others have said I think he's way out in left field. I'm suggest more in the ballpark of 15-16m by end of Q4.
Out of all I said, that's what you latch onto?
You right on your second point as I forgot elements to my post, forgive me :P
The whole thing was hypothetical, lol. When I said they had the potential due to the PS4 lineup this year. I wasn't implying PS4 was gonna cannibalize Switch sales, but potential sales. Backing up what Pachter said about Switch needing a price drop. It needs a price drop this holiday or they're not hitting that 20 million. I just don't see it.
You said yourself, that it is obvious that they are going to do better than what was projected. While you're right It could've been any of those things, But I said they were humble cause of Spider-Man expectations and the success it will have on console sales.
I'll just take your word for the rest man, it's cool.
Same. The switch is playing out the same way as the Wii U did, similar to the wii (without the shovel ware) and the gamecube.
I guess Pokemon will drive sales. I could see total units of switch sold around 50-60m. 80m if theres a long life and they drive the price down to $99-149 at some point. I think thats a pretty big success for Nintendo. But its still a big gap to the PS4 when its all said and done will probably have 120-150m units easily. Theyre going to keep selling that well into the PS5 life.
Please elaborate, Wii U came out the gate a failure, Wii came out a success.
I meant in relation to first party releases, mostly the same games spaced out at roughly the same timeframes. I know if youre a big Nintendo fan its not really a big problem and youll buy everything but a lot of people dont buy every first party game and there can be big gaps between releases.
Secondly third party again havent really come on board, theyve tried harder than the Wii U but thats not hard to beat. Obviously Bethesda, 2K have brought out some ports but there havent been many day and date releases. Even Xbox is getting RDR2 and you would think that that was a distant third console judging from threads on this board.
So yeah i feel like the Switch is playing out just like the Wii U did, and wii to a certain extent. Thats just how Nintendo consoles are.
That's how Nintendo handhelds are too, hard to change it much but switch seems to have a nice middle ground
Well yeah, I agree with that, but if it's like the Wii or Gamecube then it's best years are still ahead. The back-half of the console cycle is when Nintendo home consoles begin to falter. So we shouldn't see that have a big impact if any this year.
A seemingly succesful console selling less in its second year would be unprecedent wouldnt it?
they've already sold 2 million after one quarter. there are four quarters in a year, of which the first is always by far the slowest.
i think 20 million will be tough but 8 million is such an insane prediction that it can't actually be a serious prediction — he just meant it was tracking that way without accounting for seasonality. which makes it a meaningless statement, yeah.
i think 20 million will be tough but 8 million is such an insane prediction that it can't actually be a serious prediction — he just meant it was tracking that way without accounting for seasonality. which makes it a meaningless statement, yeah.
Probably reasonable to assume that if Q3 is up significantly, then Q4 would be too.
Yes, but this thread is going in circles.
Idk, the data we have right now have the switch selling around 5% less than it did Q1 of last year.
12M vs 15M would indicate a 15-20% drop YoY. Smash and Pokémon should still be very strong, Q2 and Q3 would have to massively disappoint
Yeah that sounds like a really, really poor prediction, unless he is talking about US numbers only, but that would be a strange thing for a equity analyst to do.
I don't think it will hit 20, but probably pretty close. Not sure that new Pokemon game will sell as many as people think. Isnt Japan pre order numbers for the game really weak?
I don't think it will hit 20, but probably pretty close. Not sure that new Pokemon game will sell as many as people think. Isnt Japan pre order numbers for the game really weak?
You're severely underestimating Switch sales. If it meets the 20m milestone, it'll be at near 40m sold in 2 years. It's selling on par with the PS4 (though launch aligned a bit lower bc of different launches) and it will surely sell well over 100m+
It may not hit 20, but 8? Come on Pach. You're smarter than this.
EDIT: Maybe in the US. MAYBE. I still think it's a stretch personally.
EDIT: Maybe in the US. MAYBE. I still think it's a stretch personally.
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