Waaaaat.
The Wii. The WiiU. And the GameCube were all extremely different. .
And Switch is completely different from all of them tooo.......
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Michael Pachter says Nintendo Switch is tracking to sell 8 million units this Fiscal Year
- Thread starter Andri
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Waaaaat.
The Wii. The WiiU. And the GameCube were all extremely different. .
And Switch is completely different from all of them tooo.......
I like how you simultaneously say the Switch is playing out like the worst Nintendo console and the best Nintendo console all in one post.
Also, it took some developers a while to get on board. Doom Eternal is supposed to be simultaneous release, so I expect that trend to continue more as developers get up to speed with development for it.
Also I like how you downplay 80m console sales in the previous post as part of how it's playing out like the Wii U and how that's "good for Nintendo"
How we could a Dockless bundle like the one in Japan alter sales?
http://m.ign.com/articles/2018/05/23/nintendo-announces-dockless-switch-bundle-for-japan
http://m.ign.com/articles/2018/05/23/nintendo-announces-dockless-switch-bundle-for-japan
Its going to largely depend on Pokemon. Thats a big hardware seller but itll be interesting to see how it fares with more expensive hardware.
I was talking about first and third party strategy, the wii actually has quite a similar strategy. It just had a ton of shovelware on it before all the shovelware devs moved onto mobile.
Who's the fanboy here? 80m console sales is massive for Nintendo considering theyve had a few misses like the Gamecube and the Wii U. Is it going to reach 100m like the Wii? I think the Wii was a one of a kind hit and had significant mainstream attraction and i dont think the Switch has that.
Again I was talking about Nintendo's software strategy, wheres call of duty, battlefield, grand theft auto, those type of AAA titles that sell every year. I think the lack of those type of titles hurt Nintendos strategy in the long run. Their first party titles sell amazingly well, but im not sure its enough.
Isn't it obvious? he is trolling to get reactions. his actual "analysts" are nothing like this at all (of course).
Do you mean the Wii/DS are one of a kind hits?
It which case they are 2 of a kind. BTW the switch is the successor to the Wii and DS. I'm just saying.
Has not much to do with defending Switch, but his prediction is so hilarious.
Pachter made many stupid quotes in the past but this is definitely in the 10 top dumb predictions ever made by an "professional" analyst. So people discuss if he is trolling, lost his mind, or simply bad at his job.
Because it doesn't exist in a vacuum. The other consoles have, to me, much more in demand games this year. So switches offerings seem a lot bless desirable than the other two. we shall see.
Not sure if this was already pointed out but he is completely treating the Switch as a traditional console connected to a TV here, based on what he's saying. He is completely discounting the fact that this is also portable. He is also completely ignoring Pokémon Let's Go, which might easily be the biggest software of the year on any platform.
I truly believe that it's impossible to predict anything relating to Nintendo one way or the other, but I'm pretty sure they're going to move more than 8 million this FY.
I truly believe that it's impossible to predict anything relating to Nintendo one way or the other, but I'm pretty sure they're going to move more than 8 million this FY.
We have analysts saying that the consoles are all doing pretty well and that despite being the fastest selling console, the PS4 wasn't being cannibalized by it. Different markets
Exactly. And Nintendo is an easy target. They don't have their hands in any other industries. They have a business model that is completely different to the other platform holders. And they have some of the most loyal, easily-riled fans in all of technology.
Basically, predicting how well Nintendo is going to do is a 1000-1 shot. If he low balls it and ends up right, he looks like a genius. If he ends up wrong, well, it's Nintendo, they're always wildly inconsistent and unpredictable.
Yeah. The real issue is that there are people who actually believe Pachter's trollish prediction and defend it and him all while ignoring facts and data that are available on this forum, and that turns into arguments.
Wii and Switch have completely different first party strategies.
Just look at 10 best sellers for each system.
Yea but will it be 5M up?
Like I think right now, Q2 is likely down just from the software output when compared to last year. So Q3 and 4 have to make up that difference and then some. Like a lot of other people have said it will depend on how many units Pokemon can move. Smash looks like it will do it's job if not exceed expectations.
It's still incorrect, years of data on dozens of consoles have shown how much of its total fy sales each console does on each quarter. You cant just take on quarter and multiply by four.
It is weird how he does always takes swipes at them though. He states "they don't know what they're doing" when just last year they broke records with the switch. Their software seems on point to sell multiple millions without breaking a sweat and their marketing for Pokemon and Smash with new trailer every few months seems to be doing well in keeping hype up. I mean Smash Ultimate is already on it's 5th OT and it was only officially revealed 2 months ago lol.
It was a bit of a rhetorical statement. I mean, I know why people think Switch will sell something absurd like 12m units this year.
pachter has a long history of negative comments towards nintendo. didnt he call iwata "late but not so great" or something?
It's his job and he is blatantly incompetent at it. Some people lap it up though. Gives them hope.
The Switch is not going to sell less than 1 million a month on average during this fiscal year. I didn't know "analyst" were now in the business of making clickbait predictions (well, ok, it shouldn't be THAT surprising some so-called experts make bold claims for clickbait from time to time).
He did say that he thinks it would sell between 50-70M lifetime
Geez I wonder if he ever blurts out anything else completely foolish and unreasonable..... Hmmmmm.....
Sure, there are differences, but there's plenty of similarities.
Differences - Wii Sports, motion control games, Wii Fit sold a truck load of games.
Similarities - There are 3D Marios, Zelda, Mario Kart, Smash, Mario party, Kirby. Most of these were also on Wii U which proves my point, Nintendo's first party strategy has been this way for a very long time. Why is there only one Mario Kart per home console, or one Zelda per generation (hopefully we see a second for the Switch)? Nintendo have loads of other franchises that they haven't touched. No Excitebike? No F-Zero? One Donkey Kong game in 5 years? Or what about their pricing strategy that seems to take forever for games to be reduced in price. Or how they require a mobile for voice chat? Obviously i sound like an 'old man yelling at clouds' right now, but after getting each of their last three home consoles (gamecube, Wii, Wii U), some of their strategies and policies are quite frustrating. I don't know how else to put it, but it feels like the same Nintendo to me.
You can't just look at the franchises themselves and claim that it's the same software strategy. At least not with Nintendo's software. You also have to look at what they're doing with those franchises, how they've being marketed, or the time frame in which they release. First off, I think you can agree that it would be idiotic of Nintendo to not put out a 3D Mario, Zelda, Mario Kart, Smash, etc. So complaining about their mere existence is absurd because if they disappeared you know everybody would be pissed as hell. So the idea that Nintendo would say "Nah, let's just skip Mario this time around" is absurd and doesn't lend credence to the idea that they're strategy is the same. All it proves is they have legacy software that consumers expect and desire. So then what makes the strategy with the switch different is not necessarily in what titles are or are not there, but more in what they are doing with those titles.
Take the huge difference between Skyward Sword and Breath of the Wild, both in what those games are and in how those games were released and marketed. Skyward Sword leaned heavily on a formula that people were pushing back against at the time, and was fully dedicated to motion controls in 2011, well after people were not so hot on motion controls anymore. It also was released at the very end of the Wii's life after it was dying. It also had an art style that could be seen as controversial. Compare this to Breath of the Wild that specifically aims to create a game in a style that is currently popular with people (and one that many fans had been specifically asking for for a long time) and doesn't bother with any significant control gimmicks. It also has an art style that doesn't lean on anything that gimmicky so it didn't get any controversy. And of course it had that entire E3 dedicated to it and was made a launch title for the Switch, effectively sending a message about how important it was. Then of course the difference between Mario 3D World and Mario Odyssey is just as clear as the difference between SS and BotW. 3D World was built around Nintendo's Wii U strategy, which was 1. Making use out of the Gamepad and 2. Couch Multiplayer. Things people were not asking for when it came to 3D Mario. Mario Odyssey was a thing people had specifically been asking for for a long time again.
If I had to make a blanket statement about Nintendo first party strategy this gen, outside of the obvious one of not splitting resources between two major systems, it'd have to be "Give the people what they want" (something Nintendo has basically never done in such a seemingly conscious way, so it's easy to see why people are excited for it). Splatoon was a breakout hit and people wanted them to treat it as a high profile franchise. They fast track a sequel and are building it up as a staple franchise. What was the biggest complaint about Mario Kart 8? No traditional battle mode. What did we get in MKDeluxe? What we asked for. A lot of complaints were made about Xenoblade X being more of a spin-off and not being as story focused as the first game. We get Xenoblade 2 and it fixes that issue. People have wanted console pokemon forever and we're getting one this year and next year. Even simple things like Mario Party and getting rid of the car have this extra little excitement to them because it really feels like Nintendo is specifically addressing even little things in ways people have asked them for. I mean, people hated those cars from the very beginning but Nintendo acted like they didn't give a crap until now. And then take Smash Bros. This might be the best example, because while Smash Bros games always have a lot of work and love put into them, but this one is off the charts. It's like a cherry on top of this great sundae. It is specifically addressing issues people have with Smash Bros. in nearly every aspect. A major point of tension in all Smash discussions is cuts. And they immediately shut that down with "Everyone is Here". Then they go on to put in characters fans have been requesting for years and have almost given up hope on like Ridley and K Rool. And there's specific additions being made for competitive players, making this game effectively the anti-Brawl. And of course there's the big one that is the return of Metroid. And I haven't even mentioned their new IP like ARMS, or their better licensing deals like Mario + Rabbids. Or they're better relationship with 3rd parties and indies. Or how they're accomplishing all of this without completely ignoring making new experiences or casual stuff like Labo or 1 2 Switch. Or how major drought issues are gone. In fact the only major issue that Nintendo hasn't properly addressed is how they handle online. Every other issue people have had with the last two gens is effectively fixed. So hopefully they'll come to their sense and fix that one too.
This is a big reason why the Switch is seeing the success it is with its software while the Wii U did not. Because the software strategy is different, and consumers and people in the industry can tell. Wii: Simplification, Blue Ocean, Motion Controls. Wii U: Couch Multiplayer, Justify the Gamepad. Switch: Everything in one place. Player how and where you want. "Give people what they've been asking for". They're clearly not making games with the same mindset they were making them with in the Wii or Wii U era.
This is a big problem I have with Pachter's statement as well. He's not just predicting an impossibly low number to the point where he looks like he's joking. The full statement that was posted earlier in this thread makes it look like he's acting like we're still dealing with Wii/Wii U era Nintendo. Like you, he can't seem to see the clear change in Nintendo's strategy that everyone else seems to be able to. Hell in some ways his statement sounds like it was made by somebody living in the PS2/Gamecube era. Like a company can't find success unless they follow that formula. The statement is just lacking in all kinds of perspective on how the industry has changed and what's actually happening in the industry today.
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Of course you can't which is why I wouldn't call it a prediction. It's just an off the cuff remark based off of the data for this fiscal year at that moment of time.
Video game is one of the areas Pachter covers as an analyst and he covers companies like EA, Activision Blizzard, Take-Two, Ubisoft and Nintendo. I don't think this 8m number is what Pachter seriously believes because his rating and TP for Nintendo shares says otherwise.
You make some really good points especially where you go into detail about how Nintendo have tried to improve on their past games. But I think Nintendo does have a problem on how they should communicate to people like us. Seems like both Pachter and myself see it as what games are available on the system, whereas I guess more 'invested' Nintendo fans can see the developments and improvements of what Nintendo has done in this gen.
To your first point, I don't think its a binary situation, where Nintendo would have to skip Mario for me to sit up and notice. It's more a case of, could they give us another Mario type game? Or how about a platformer not named Mario? I get it, they have limited resources like everyone else, but (and I hate to bring up the 'S' word now) Sony will try new things, like God of War on the surface is a big departure in the series (Norse mythology) or things a new franchise like Horizon:Zero Dawn. It's probably not possible what I'm asking for, it wouldn't make sense to ask for a new IP platformer that is riskier than what a mario platformer would sell. But its what would interest me.
My point is pretty simple, Nintendo's strategy (at least to me) has been largely the same for a long time now, and if not that, a lot of similarities, and that makes them a little predictable to me, which means I'll hold off on a Switch purchase until I see there are things I want on the system. I'm aware many people like Nintendo the way they are, so while it seems like they're not for me, I do like handhelds a lot and I like many aspects of Nintendo. I want a Switch for having an awesome handheld, but in terms of software it just looks very similar after going through the Wii and Wii U era.
And as a side note - Nintendo seem to consistently have lukewarm third party support. I guess Switch at least has mid tier devs and publishers on board like Koei Tecmo and NISA and indies. But the big guns like EA or Acti are still missing. Their hardware has always been made with Nintendo games in mind. I'm assuming third parties are NOT biased and do want to put out software on Nintendo's software, but it seems like they're more than happy to just release on the Xbox One and PS4, and that a Switch version wouldn't be worth it in regards to segregating the player base or the return on investment on a third version. All things considered would I buy the worst looking version despite it being portable, probably not, so the pubs are probably making the right call not releasing a Switch version. That said this third party issue should fall on Nintendo, because third parties are really important in my decision to purchase a console.
Also Pachter's 8m prediction is absurdly low considering it already did 2m in Q1, so obviously it's going to beat 8m with holiday sales.
I never said or implied these numbers should be looked in a vacuum, without considering any other factors (such as software lineups, sales promotions in Q3, previous trends, etc). I don't know where you got that idea.
Wasn't Pachter bullish on the SW not too long ago? I mean, there has to be some reason he's saying this. Has something changed?
It's a great way to get other people to do some of his homework for him lol
Nintendo not doing what you want doesn't mean they're doing the same as the Wii.
Some IP existing in both consoles doesn't make them exactly the same. How they're using those franchises is very not the same in most cases.
The strategy is very very different. You're simply wrong on this point.
One Mario Kart per generation is an easy one to justify.
There's been two Zeldas in most Nintendo home consoles.
Their pricing strategy clearly works. Look at sales. Also, unless you're a collector it's actually cheaper for consumers because it means a healthy second hand market.
Yes. Their voice chat solution sucks.
You don't sound like old man yelling at cloud. You just have a bunch of legitimate and unlegitimate complaints that don't really support your initial point.
If he had predicted the Playstation 4 would only sell 8 million this FY, I'm sure the thread would be equally as long.
Amazing.
He's one of the greatest internet trolls to ever grace the digital universe.
And the amount of people who keep feeding him over the years is staggering.
Its like Roman Reigns levels of heel heat.
He's one of the greatest internet trolls to ever grace the digital universe.
And the amount of people who keep feeding him over the years is staggering.
Its like Roman Reigns levels of heel heat.
If he would have said that Uncharted 4 is shit, then this thread would have been already closed due to derailing the hard way... LOL
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