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Michael Pachter says Nintendo Switch is tracking to sell 8 million units this Fiscal Year

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Andri

Andri

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Mar 20, 2018
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I recently saw an episode of Pachter Factor(https://youtu.be/6abmXivp-AI), where Michael Pachter answers questions from people about the gaming industry.

In it he talks about things like the sales difference between this gen and last gen(mostly attributing it to Wii vs WiiU, not mentioning the decline from XB360 to XB1 for some reason) and then also drops the following line:

"Their former CEO commited to 20 million switches this year, they are tracking to sell 8 million this year"

To my knowledge Pachter is an Gaming Industry Analyst, so my question to the people of Era is if this assessment is sound ?

As of Nintendos latest Financials switch sold 1.88 million units in the first Quarter of the FY, so does that mean Pachter expects every Quarter to be about the same for Switch this FY ?

I am under the impression that Consoles, especially Nintendo ones tend to have the majority of their sales in Q3, since that is the Holiday quarter. Is that Impression wrong ?

Edit1:
Some common things people have brought up and others have answered in the thread that Newcomers might find good to know:

1. He did not say 18 Million instead of 8 Million.

2.He is referring to WW numbers, since he said the 8m number in reference to Nintendos official WW Guidance numbers.

Edit2:

For the people who dont want to watch the video:
Michael Pachter said:
Look, I think Nintendo is just out to lunch. I mean, I think they have no idea what they're doing. The software is great, and the marketing people are really great at doing what they can with the product they have. The Switch is way too late. What really happened is, they completely whiffed on Wii U and, had the Switch come out when the Wii U came out, I think they would have been in the lead this cycle. It didn't. They launched the Switch way late, and it's priced too high, so the Switch costs the same as a PS4, and if you, really, you're only gonna get one console, why would you get a Switch over a PS4? Answer: you love Nintendo first-party titles. But short of that? No, you won't. I think you get it in addition to a PS4. But I don't think you get it instead of a PS4. You're not gonna get to play all the games that you can [on the PS4]. So I think they already blew it in this cycle.

So, when you talk about what's gonna change, Nintendo is a backward-looking company. They manage by looking in the rear-view mirror at their past success. Their immediately past CEO Kimishima committed to 20 million Switches this year; they're tracking to 8 million. They're missing by a mile. Their new CEO, starting at the end of May, Furukawa, I've never met the guy. We'll see what he says. But the fact is, it's priced too high to sell 20 million a year; the Wii sold 20 million a year and was priced at 199, and then 149 [not a typo, his words]. This thing needs to drop to 199 to have a [???? didn't get the word] of selling this kind of numbers.

And what's the strategy gonna be? This is the company with the Blue Ocean, okay? Blue Ocean means "we're in our own ocean, there are no sharks. We can swim along! No one will attack us. We don't compete." This is a company that genuinely believes they don't compete with the other companies. And so, as long as they think that, they don't care about Playstation 5 and Xbox Two, "those aren't competitive, those are different". If they believe that, and they're right, then they're not gonna change their strategy. If they believe that and they're wrong, they'll figure out way too late that they're wrong, as they did with Wii U, and they'll come up with some new console around three years after the Xbox Two and Playstation 5 launch, just like they did with Switch. So Switch came out four y- three and a half years after Xbox One and PS4. They'll figure it out way too late. I think they are just out to lunch, I do not think they have a strategy that works. Their software is great, and if you want it, you're gonna play it on their hardware, but they're gonna stay in the hardware business for a while because they are convinced that they're absolutely right. So, no, I don't think that their strategy is gonna work when more powerful hardware is available, not at 300 bucks, they're gonna have to drop the price a lot.
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Credit to Kilrogg for the transcription.
 
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Kolx

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Oct 25, 2017
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...You'd have to be insane to predict a number this low. Did he get the question wrong or something?
 
Raijinto

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There has to have been some sort of miscommunication/misinterpretation somewhere. Even the anti-Nintendo trolls betting life and limb on this site that they'll miss the 20 million target don't think it'll be missed by *that* much.
 
Aostia82

Aostia82

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Oct 27, 2017
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I think that the 20 millions mark is almost impossible, but no way they are gonna sell 8 millions only
 
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Deleted member 1413

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Oct 25, 2017
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Feels like Pachter throws out random numbers for his show without thinking about it because it doesn't matter as much as actual financial advice.

Selling like half as much as their last fiscal year seems unnecessarily dire
 
Hero

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Oct 25, 2017
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8 million units in America or worldwide? If it's the latter he's still an idiot.
 
Stoof

Stoof

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Oct 25, 2017
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Wow, I normally avoid Pachter threads since they just tend to be the same memeing over and over, but this answer is so absurd I can't even believe it. There is no universe in which the Switch sells 8 million this year. If he wants to argue that it won't hit its 20 million goal then that's fine but this is ridiculous.
 
RailWays

RailWays

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Oct 25, 2017
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If he was talking only US, then maybe I could see it, but he is implying 8 million WW. That is insane.

Like, I get if people doubt that they'll match their 20 million goal, but they're selling well over 8 million this fiscal year.
 
Tagg

Tagg

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What's the timestamp? They'll break 8 million WW no problem. But it's a different story if he's only talking USA.
 
shotgunbob04

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Oct 25, 2017
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I've been wondering for years now why anyone follows this guy's video game sales predictions. Seems to be completely out of touch when it comes to the video games industry.
 
IronicSonic

IronicSonic

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Nintendo just needs to put a Direct in september and wait to sell 8 millio in Q4 alone lol
 
Tagg

Tagg

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Found the timestamp: https://youtu.be/6abmXivp-AI?t=540

He doesn't mention USA at all. Only that they anticipate selling 20 million and he's suspecting only 8 million? Pachter a moron [re-]confirmed.
 
Keldroc

Keldroc

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Oct 27, 2017
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Tagg said:
Found the timestamp: https://youtu.be/6abmXivp-AI?t=540

He doesn't mention USA at all. Only that they anticipate selling 20 million and he's suspecting only 8 million? Pachter a moron [re-]confirmed.
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A moron with access to way more data and sales figures than we do. But yeah he must be...lying or something? Because of reasons?

Some of y'all need to learn how to take bad Nintendo news gracefully.
 
Amnixia

Amnixia

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Jan 25, 2018
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If he means 8m US, maybe? WW? It'll be more. I don't think Nintendo will hit the 20m in this year either, my totally uneducated guess would be about 17m units for this FY.
 

Deleted member 2791

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Keldroc said:
A moron with access to way more data and sales figures than we do. But yeah he must be...lying or something? Because of reasons?

Some of y'all need to learn how to take bad Nintendo news gracefully.
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ya if he said that seriously he's just more ignorant than anyone who has ever looked at a nintendo chart, nothing else
 
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