I know you are trying really hard, but in reality you can not deduce how much or even if Xbox is making or losing money since we only know exact numbers for a conglomerat of divisons. If MPC has made fucking $13bn profit last year, while Xbox' profit might be anywhere between a small loss and around $1bn profit, it becomes clear that other parts of MPC, e.g. Search, must be so amazingly profitable that it's impossible to deduce if Xbox is adding a single digit percentage to those $13bn or not.
Look at Sony's forecast for FY '19, they are fusing numbers for Mobile phones, TVs and Cameras, and voila the desastrous Mobile Phone loss is hidden (this is obviously an extreme example, but it makes clear that your claims about xbox profits are only guesswork).
No you can't 100% certainly deduct the exact amount. But you can make an educated guess. And making a loss for the gaming segment is not one of them. Not with anything known about the current gaming business and Microsofts own numbers. Just like Xbox making $5bn in profits a year would not be one.
Bing turned a profit for the first time in Q1FY16, before that Bing was making a loss.
How much that segment contributes now? Lets have a look at Google or Yahoo and what margins their search business have.
Bing made $7.5bn revenue in FY19. The profits? Around a 35% margin would be a decent guess? So Bing is making $2.5bn out of the $13bn total.
That leaves over $10.5bn for Windows, Gaming and Surface
I'll give you a few examples and you say to me if they make sense or not:
FY16
Bing turned a profit for the first time. 5% margin resulting in $300m OI
Gaming being unprofitable and having a (1%) margin resulting in ($100m) OI
Devices with the phone business highly unprofitable and having a (15%) margin resulting in (1.2bn) OI
Windows makes up the rest with 7bn OI and a margin of 40% to get to the total of $6bn for the whole division
FY19
Bring profitability increased a lot. 33% margin resulting in $2.5bn OI
Gaming still being unprofitable and even more investment. (2%) margin resulting in (250m) OI
Devices without phones and high price premium Surface. 20% margin resulting in 1.25bn OI
Windows a mature business, but still a lot of margin growth. 47% margin resulting in 9.5bn OI
You have the actual revenue figures for every segment.
You have the actual Operation Income total.
You know how the segments changed over time.
You need margins that make sense and reflect the reality of the business.
So does it make sense, that Microsoft was able to constantly increase their Windows margin percentage points by a total of 7% in the last 4 years? That alone would be huge and unprecedented for the business and the state it is in. Because if not, the profits had to come from somewhere else. The profits are there and they have to come from one of the 4 divisions.
33% margin for the search advertising business is already on Google level by the way. Is Bing more profitable than Google already?
20% margin for devices. The Surface segment at half the margin of Apple, but still way ahead of any other PC manufacturer with single digit margins?
This is what it would take for Gaming to be unprofitable.
Or does it make more sense, that Gaming has a profit margin somewhere between 5 and 15%?
I just find it funny who some people desperately want to believe, that Microsoft has extremelye profitable search and hardware businesses with industry leading profit margins, but gaming has to be on the exact opposite side with the industry lowest figures and probably even in the loss.
One could argue, that the Windows division has to make more profits and a higher margin like they used to have in 2010 - 2013 (between 48 and 63%) for example. But that would require Gaming, Search and Devices to make an additional combined loss of $1.5bn to $4bn in FY16. And that again does not make sense.
