No bond yields do not correlate to stock market gains lol. Bonds have been insanely cheap over the bull run of the century we've had. This is easily googlable again.
Oh bud, come on. When the market is doing well, fewer people invest in bonds. Yields thusly go up. This correlates with rates. This is like debating what causes it to rain.
At the risk of sounding harsh do you understand the difference between a mortgage at 2.75% vs 6%? It would have increased my monthly payment by 60%.
Well, considering I've been writing mortgages as my career, successfully for a decade now, I can reasonably assure you that I do understand. Also, the average rate now on a 30 year is already near 5%. A 200K mortgage is about $100 more a month at 6% compared to 5%. You think home sales will crater over $100 a month?
Do you think buyers will be affected by that or do you think they will say "it's ok it's historically low"? People react to what they can afford. If someone has a rate of 3% and has to jump to 6% to buy a new house guess what happens? They stay put and remodel.
Where are they going to get the funds to remodel? Most people finance it...which is a loan...which is based on the current market rates.
Even odder is the consideration that people will just stop buying. As if people starting a family will just forego home ownership.
New home buyers see costs rising and can't afford it so they don't buy. This causes prices to deflate and since we are at record highs, most likely crash. And this is just talking about well qualified buyers not people who have a few issues. Those people are roundly screwed with 7-8% mortgages.
If only we had some precedent to consider how people reacted to rates double what they are now...like decades of economic data that prove people will prioritize home ownership over other purchases in order to afford a home..
I don't think the fed minds hurting home sales on bit to be honest. My home had more than doubled what I paid in 2008. That's called a bubble. Also the fed raising rates and dumping BILLIONS of derivatives at the same time definitely has a destabilizing aspect to our economy. Once again this is all googlable.
The feds are always mindful of the impact rates will have on the purchases that will occur which are impacted by rates, in an effort to maintain economic growth and/or stability. This isn't even a debatable point.
2 grand? Once again. Our home buyer is going to say yeah I can afford an extra $400-1000 a month in interest I made 2k more last year! If you're in the housing industry I hope you have savings. I bet 2008 caught you by surprise too.
Your math is strange. We were discussing rates at 6% cratering the market. The current market rate is already near 5%. I already outlined above that the difference in payment is near $100, not $1,000.
You said it would be news to you if the average median income went up. I showed you it did. Just take the L.
I started lending in 2008, during the recession. So it didn't catch me by surprise at all. I've enjoyed playing a part in rebounding and reshaping the industry.